Intersite Game - Turn Discussion Thread

[novice]

It looks like the mod tells you how many XP you'll gain? The healthy axe will gain 2XP.

I'm not sure about attacking with the wounded axe, 91% is a bit on the low side but I think it may be worth doing nonetheless.

[regoarrarr]

Well we a) don't have to attack this turn and / or b) could heal-promote first. We just want to make sure to still get 2 XP from it. I would say without running the numbers through the combat odds spreadsheet to

heal this turn
attack next turn (should be 95% at least)
promote-heal to deal with the next barb.

[novice]

Well we a) don't have to attack this turn and / or b) could heal-promote first. We just want to make sure to still get 2 XP from it. I would say without running the numbers through the combat odds spreadsheet to

heal this turn
attack next turn (should be 95% at least)
promote-heal to deal with the next barb.

That could work, although the barb could move NW on the interturn. That wouldn't be a problem but it would be slightly annoying.

[SevenSpirits]

If we don't attack this turn I'm assuming the warrior will move off his forest hill and therefore won't be worth 2xp anymore. I think the only two options that make sense are:

1) As Sullla suggested, attack with the healthy axe.
2) Heal axe #2 and attack with it this turn... but only if this will give good odds and 2xp (someone should confirm this beforehand).

I would like to see the odds we get after healing, and would probably favor that plan, since a 10xp unit would be really nice.

For those who are unaware, xp is based off the strength ratio between the units. For example, you can see in the screenshot that the axe vs barb battle would be 5 vs 2.5 (that is 2 base strength for the warrior, times (100% [base] + 75% [forest + hill] - 50% [axe vs melee]). Were the wounded axe attacking, that "5" for the axe would instead be a lower number. As long as the ratio is only 2:1 in our favor, we'll get 2xp. Any better and we only get 1xp. If both units are fully healed and have no first strikes, 2:1 strength ratio corresponds to 99.1% odds.

[kjn]

If our wounded (78/100) axe promo-heals with C1 he should get 97.87% chance to win, if he promo heals him to 89/100 HP and the combat calculator spread sheet is correct.

[mostly_harmless]

I figured out the German settlement layout as relevant to our jungle belt expansion plans.

Explanations:
We see the German city of Wismar and its 2nd ring cultural border. Furthermore we see a single tile and a row of three tiles, all marked with a tick.

Lets start with the row of three tiles.
It cannot be the borders of their capital or any other 3rd ring city (which they probably don't have anyway), as we would see that 3rd ring eastern border 1S of the single ticked tile. Nothing there, so a 3rd ring cultural border i.e. capital is out.
Could the 3 tile row then the first ring border. Well, we spotted the border on T61 and it has not expanded since then. Seeing how the Germans probably go for a +2cpt Terrace straight away in each new city we should have seen a pop to 2nd border by now. However, this is not really 100% safe to assume. So I grabbed the settler and checked the allowed-for-settling tiles just south of the 3 tile row. All allowed, i.e. no city within 2 tile radius, i.e. this 3 tile row is not a first ring.
So its a 2nd ring cultural border. The only position that fits the pattern is the one marked in the map above.

What about the single ticked tile then.
With the location of Wismar and the confirmed location of the other city we just did, we can rule out a 1st ring border. That leaves us with either a 3rd ring border (i.e. capital position on either of the two positions marked with a yellow star) or a 2nd ring border of a city as indicated on the map (in between the two capital positions).

Based on this we have the extent of the German borders as it is now. I further put in (reddish line) the German border expansions over the next 25 turns or so assuming all three cities will pop their borders.

I also pencilled in BananaGem and Sulllas preliminary dotmap with the stone city as well.

Conclusions: Unless the Germans put another city towards us (the river junction being the most likely spot) there is not much cultural clashes.
Also barbs don't spawn within 2 tiles of a border, right? That would give us a lot of safety up there, purely on the position of current German borders.

EDIT:
Here is my take on the German visibility based on their borders (blue line) and resulting barb no-spawn area (green line, i.e. everything north of it should not see barbs spawning).

mh

[kjn]

Great work, m_h!

I think I'm pretty sure that their southern city is their third one (from T44, claiming 9 tiles), and that it expanded borders on T65 (claiming 7 to 9 tiles). That would mean their capital is located on the northern star, equidistant with our capital to the gems.

If it's their second city, then their capital is located on the southern star.

If m_h's projected city is their second one, then the Germans must really have pushed expansion hard in a single direction - all cities going to the south or east. OTOH, they had a quite long time before Wismar was founded (T52) and the immediately preceding whip (T45, 2-pop), but that was probably a whip of their second city.

[mostly_harmless]

Can't be the third one then, as the 2nd ring borders were in place on T61 already.
I am also not sure that their capital is place on either of the two spots. It's very close to the WPC starting position, isn't? But if their capital is then located even further west, then yes, all their expansion went east and south east.

mh

[kjn]

I count 14/15 tiles between the German capital and the WPC capital, and they both moved their first turn, so I wouldn't out the stars for the German capital due to that.

Here are the German border expansions:

T1: +8 (Webringen)
T6: +14 (Webringen second ring)
T29: +7 (Worms)
T44: +9 (Wittenberge)
T51: +12 (Webringen third ring)
T52: +5 (Wismar)
T60 +10 (Wittenberge second ring)
T61: +6 (Worms second ring)
T65: +8 (Wismar second ring) +5 (Wilhelmshaven)
T66 +1 (bonus claim?)
T68: +2 (Wien)

Sum 85 controlled tiles, but these deltas give only 82. I think their capital third-ring expansion hides the rest. We'll know more T71.

[Sullla]

The consensus was to promote and attack the barb with Axe 2 (now renamed Wyn). We had 98% odds, won the battle at 3.0 health, and Wyn now has 4 XP.



I've revolted us to Hinduism as well. Let's hope we get some more lucky religion spreads, we haven't seen too much there after that very early spread to Focal Point. We are still only at 42 Great Prophet points in Mansa's Muse, and we may want to consider running a Priest there when it grows to size 4 in order to speed up that Shrine. I'll see if I can look over our latest micro plans sometime tomorrow, as I'd like to rework the plan at Mansa's Muse to reflect the extra happiness we'll be getting there from converting to our religion.

Happy Thanksgiving / random November Thursday outside America.

EDIT: Forgot to mention, I'm leaving Axe 4 in Focal Point for one more turn. I want to see where that last barb warrior moves before crossing the river and heading over to the west.