WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Jabbz]

You're simultaneously saying Brick likes doing weird gamey things, AND that my explanation is too... complicated and gamey?

Look to be consistent

And re: blase- I probably get more invested in just arguing for the sake of it when I think someone's being dumb, regardless of the stakes. Example: Why I got pretty into arguing with you day 2 despite it pretty much not mattering. To compare now, I think you're being a lot more reasonable right now, and I know everyone else obviously has a lot less clarity on the situation because they can't just basically dismiss 2 of their 3 suspects as pretty much town.

Basically, I don't have a lot of arguments, there isn't like a huge scum track record to go through. Adrien doesn't really have one. He has a mostly "gliding by"/null track record. I have the 1 argument, and I've made it, and apparently you're not buying it.

There is a difference between gamey, and obscenely risky. A double gambit, which is what that would be, is too complex, and requires too many things to go JUST right, with a very high risk value associated with it. The gambit of including two townies in his misslynch plot has far fewer places to go wrong, and it has a lower risk value, as it only exposes one player instead of two.

You are right about me not buying it. As I said, I'm open to persuasion, but as you've said, you don't really have any new arguments today :/

[sunrise089]

Back, and glad the deadline is still 3:00pm my time.

I think it's safe to assume dtay and Adrien aren't changing their votes, so since dtay was first to two votes I think we're locked in unless Jabbz changes anyways.

[dtay]

You're simultaneously saying Brick likes doing weird gamey things, AND that my explanation is too... complicated and gamey?

Look to be consistent

And re: blase- I probably get more invested in just arguing for the sake of it when I think someone's being dumb, regardless of the stakes. Example: Why I got pretty into arguing with you day 2 despite it pretty much not mattering. To compare now, I think you're being a lot more reasonable right now, and I know everyone else obviously has a lot less clarity on the situation because they can't just basically dismiss 2 of their 3 suspects as pretty much town.

Basically, I don't have a lot of arguments, there isn't like a huge scum track record to go through. Adrien doesn't really have one. He has a mostly "gliding by"/null track record. I have the 1 argument, and I've made it, and apparently you're not buying it.

There is a difference between gamey, and obscenely risky. A double gambit, which is what that would be, is too complex, and requires too many things to go JUST right, with a very high risk value associated with it. The gambit of including two townies in his misslynch plot has far fewer places to go wrong, and it has a lower risk value, as it only exposes one player instead of two.

You are right about me not buying it. As I said, I'm open to persuasion, but as you've said, you don't really have any new arguments today :/

I think there's two things you aren't weighing properly

1) You aren't exposing 2 players, you're exposing one and anti-exposing/buying town cred for the other. As has pretty much happened. IF there's a gambit, then Adrien has done exactly what should be done under that gambit and it's made you two not really consider lynching him at all. That shouldn't be enough to make you believe me on its own, but it should make you rethink your assumption it's dangerous.

2) I think you're also ignoring how novice was almost certainly going to get lynched anyway. So the additional gain of the gambit is really only the potential to lynch Adrien, in exchange for massively increased chance of lynching brick. Basically a 1 for 1 trade in probability terms. The wolves could easily have been at double lylo without the gambit, AND kept Brick from being exposed.

[AdrienIer]

BRick would have been a contender for the next day anyway I think.

[Jabbz]

I think there's two things you aren't weighing properly

1) You aren't exposing 2 players, you're exposing one and anti-exposing/buying town cred for the other. As has pretty much happened. IF there's a gambit, then Adrien has done exactly what should be done under that gambit and it's made you two not really consider lynching him at all. That shouldn't be enough to make you believe me on its own, but it should make you rethink your assumption it's dangerous.

2) I think you're also ignoring how novice was almost certainly going to get lynched anyway. So the additional gain of the gambit is really only the potential to lynch Adrien, in exchange for massively increased chance of lynching brick. Basically a 1 for 1 trade in probability terms. The wolves could easily have been at double lylo without the gambit, AND kept Brick from being exposed.

1. You are exposing two players. There is no way you can put a player up for extreme examination for 2 days and not put him at risk. Look at your current position. You have literally no new arguments to make about Adrien, no matter how far you go back. EVERYTHING has been aggressively examined, and not just by Brick, but by every living player. The only way that could even be remotely feasible is if they planned this from day one, and Adrien went through the entire game with this in mind. I find that too hard to believe.

2. Yes, novice was going to get lynched, eventually. This would have allowed for Adrien (in theory) to be lynched as well. As I said, I think it was a bad risk, but it worked out. Your scenario is far far riskier, and for the same/similar results. I just don't buy it.

[Jabbz]

It's also worth noting that you don't only have to persuade me at this point dtay. Sunrise is here, and you have to persuade both of us.

[Jabbz]

BRick would have been a contender for the next day anyway I think.

What do you mean here Adrien?

[dtay]

It's also worth noting that you don't only have to persuade me at this point dtay. Sunrise is here, and you have to persuade both of us.

Correct yeah.

[AdrienIer]

Let's say we lynch Gaspar then novice and BRick doesn't do his gambit. On the day after novice's lynch (assuming he gets lynched without BRick's intervention) it's the same people as yesterday, and BRick had done some weird things in the first days. I think that I might have voted for him after a reread. Barring some important events in Gaspar and novice lynch days of course.

[Jabbz]

So your point behind that is? I think I understand, but I want to see your response.