Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Lewwyn]

So new theory, its not who I suspect but how I vote. So far anytime my vote has helped lynch someone they've been a villager. The only time my vote wasn't a part of the lynch was Selrahc. From now on I just need to vote for whoever has less votes...

[Roland]

So how many more misses do we get?

So new theory, its not who I suspect but how I vote. So far anytime my vote has helped lynch someone they've been a villager. The only time my vote wasn't a part of the lynch was Selrahc. From now on I just need to vote for whoever has less votes...

No offense Lewwyn, and it's great that you're finding new ways to enjoy the game, but could you possibly try to be a bit more constructive with your input? Maybe I'm being unfair, but I feel as though you contributed to the demise of Mr. Nice Guy with all your chaos. Case in point:

Yes, yes, YES!!! That's the spirit! We're innocent so we must be wolves! From what you say I suspect MNG and Meiz even less so they must be wolves! Your theory makes me so suspicious of you that you must be innocent!

Of course, having said that I feel responsible for not pushing harder against fire&ice, or coming around to zakalwe sooner. Either way I maybe could have helped save Mr. Nice Guy.

Man, this is starting to get depressing. I can't wait to see who dies tonight (sarcasm).

[Rowain]

So how many more misses do we get?

2 more wrong lynches are allowed.

Perhaps we can now reconsider the novice-theory? The easiest way perhaps lynch Lewwyn.

@Roland.:
this is the list of the switches(that damned MNG):

1. zakalwe switches to Mr. Nice Guy
   
2. novice switches to Mr. Nice Guy
   
3. Lewwyn switches to Mr. Nice Guy
   
4. Rowain switches to Lewwyn
   
5. Serdoa votes Mr. Nice Guy
   
6. Irgy switches to Mr. Nice Guy
   
7. Meiz switches to Mr. Nice Guy
   
8. Rowain switches to fire & ice
   
9. Ichabod switches to fire&ice
   
10. Mardoc switches to Mr. Nice Guy
    

[zakalwe]

Maybe it's that crazy theory the wolves have been waiting for.

With 6 straight votes for MNG following mine I'm thinking I may have been on to something here.

[zakalwe]

(cross-posted with Rowain)

[Roland]

2 more wrong lynches are allowed.

Unless we start getting some 'Wolves that doesn't leave much hope.

Perhaps we can now reconsider the novice-theory? The easiest way perhaps lynch Lewwyn.

First of all, what is the "novice-theory"? Second, what does lynching Lewwyn have to do with it? Third, who here honestly believes Lewwyn to be a 'Wolf, and why?

[novice]

Well, crap. Excellent game by the wolves so far. Almost 1500 posts and we're not any closer to wrapping this up.

I think I'll refrain from launching any new theories until after the night kill. But don't despair, all is not lost. After all, for every villager killed our odds of lynching a wolf improve.

[Mardoc]

First of all, what is the "novice-theory"? Second, what does lynching Lewwyn have to do with it? Third, who here honestly believes Lewwyn to be a 'Wolf, and why?

I'm pretty sure the novice theory is that he's a wolf aiming for deep cover, only a wolf could have voted as perfectly as he did days 1-3 (obviously day 4 doesn't count since the theory was brought up before he voted), and that Lewwyn's Day 1 vote change was designed to allow novice a more perfect voting record, so he's a wolf too. In fact, if Lewwyn's a wolf, then novice must also be one, because they wanted to hide that novice switched from one villager to another.

But...I don't particularly believe that theory. It just requires too much coordination. It's really the core of my 5 wolves theory - I got Cull and PB and Meiz added as logical consequences if Lewwyn and novice were coordinating, and we already know 2 of those were plain old villagers.

[Serdoa]

Í am pretty sure that most of the discussions in this village are between wolves. I am also pretty sure that our wolves are using every possible way to give themselves cover - because lets face it: We seem to have 4 wolves with deep cover as obviously nobody has even remotely any evidence to go on. Or is it maybe rather the case that every suspicion on a real wolf so far got shot down quickly? It would be a really risky play, but if they could control the village (what got much easier with the lucky seer kill and in a game without PMs) it could pay off easily.

So, what to do? I don't know but I have an idea to propose and hope to get some discussion about it: We have 15 players left, after the night 14. Out of those we have 4 special villager roles (given that they do not kill a special role this night). If all special roles would reveal themselves that leaves 10 players which could be wolves. Every villager knows for himself that he is a villager too, so for 6 players there are only 9 possible wolves left. As we have 4 wolves left it means that nearly every second player one can choose is a wolf, giving a 50% chance to nail one.

But there is another effect, probably more important. We have 4 days of voting which should become much clearer. It does show us how 3-4 other villagers have voted. That should make it easier to discard certain patterns we can see (because we know for sure that those are villagers) and let us concentrate on others we might have not even realized till now.

Of course the negative effect is that we will lose a trusted villager every night after this big reveal. But we do not have any confirmed villager without them revealing themselves anyway so we only lose what we would otherwise not have. The only really downside I can make out right now is the loss of the Baner - but with the Void Wolf around, how much effect will he really have?

Anyway, this is open for discussion. I really would like to hear the reasoning of everyone for or against this idea. But don't reveal yourself in the process please.

[Roland]

I'm pretty sure the novice theory is that he's a wolf aiming for deep cover, only a wolf could have voted as perfectly as he did days 1-3 (obviously day 4 doesn't count since the theory was brought up before he voted), and that Lewwyn's Day 1 vote change was designed to allow novice a more perfect voting record, so he's a wolf too. In fact, if Lewwyn's a wolf, then novice must also be one, because they wanted to hide that novice switched from one villager to another.

What if Lewwyn is a Villager, though? Is novice still a 'Wolf, or is he then a Villager? Besides, novice moved from pocketbeetle to Cull, after Lewwyn moved to MJW (ya that one). Even if we ignore Lewwyn's switch, that would have set novice up for a tie between MJW (ya that one) and Cull - both Villagers. It makes no sense that he would have done that if he was going for deep cover, nor did it require any involvement with Lewwyn. Speaking of Lewwyn and his involvement with that late switch on Day 1, I believe him when he says there were two factors involved in his switch: his negative view of MJW (which both Serdoa and Selrahc shared, among others I am sure, just not to the extent that Lewwyn has), and his (mildly silly, IMHO) concern about the late Cull swing. That doesn't make him not a 'Wolf, just that his "connection" to novice is dubious at best, and really non-existent. Novice's actions speak for themselves - swinging from a Villager out of harm's way to one who was in harm's way, in an attempt to save someone he fully suspected was a Villager.

Frankly, I still say we have better suspects than novice, and I think Lewwyn's unusual behavior of late isn't all that incriminating - just exasperating. The fact that people seem incapable of grasping the lack of connection between Lewwyn and novice during Day 1 is... perplexing, if not condemning.