Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[novice]

Í am pretty sure that most of the discussions in this village are between wolves. I am also pretty sure that our wolves are using every possible way to give themselves cover - because lets face it: We seem to have 4 wolves with deep cover as obviously nobody has even remotely any evidence to go on. Or is it maybe rather the case that every suspicion on a real wolf so far got shot down quickly? It would be a really risky play, but if they could control the village (what got much easier with the lucky seer kill and in a game without PMs) it could pay off easily.

So, what to do? I don't know but I have an idea to propose and hope to get some discussion about it: We have 15 players left, after the night 14. Out of those we have 4 special villager roles (given that they do not kill a special role this night). If all special roles would reveal themselves that leaves 10 players which could be wolves. Every villager knows for himself that he is a villager too, so for 6 players there are only 9 possible wolves left. As we have 4 wolves left it means that nearly every second player one can choose is a wolf, giving a 50% chance to nail one.

But there is another effect, probably more important. We have 4 days of voting which should become much clearer. It does show us how 3-4 other villagers have voted. That should make it easier to discard certain patterns we can see (because we know for sure that those are villagers) and let us concentrate on others we might have not even realized till now.

Of course the negative effect is that we will lose a trusted villager every night after this big reveal. But we do not have any confirmed villager without them revealing themselves anyway so we only lose what we would otherwise not have. The only really downside I can make out right now is the loss of the Baner - but with the Void Wolf around, how much effect will he really have?

Anyway, this is open for discussion. I really would like to hear the reasoning of everyone for or against this idea. But don't reveal yourself in the process please.

I was thinking the exact same thing, actually, but I didn't want to start discussing it until after the night kill. Also, I'm not sure if "The Big Reveal" should be done on day 5 or day 6. I guess it depends on who the wolves kill.

This is our silver lining - we've killed a lot of villagers but the only power role that has been killed is the Seer.

[Roland]

Í am pretty sure that most of the discussions in this village are between wolves. I am also pretty sure that our wolves are using every possible way to give themselves cover - because lets face it: We seem to have 4 wolves with deep cover as obviously nobody has even remotely any evidence to go on. Or is it maybe rather the case that every suspicion on a real wolf so far got shot down quickly? It would be a really risky play, but if they could control the village (what got much easier with the lucky seer kill and in a game without PMs) it could pay off easily.

I'm not convinced of 4 'Wolves with deep cover. I am fairly certain, however, of at least one or two 'Wolves who keep getting saved. At this point, they can afford to play such risks - even if zakalwe IS a 'Wolf, he bought his brethren time by enabling a Villager lynch. He probably had several Villager followers, as well, not needing anything more than 1 'Wolf to get the wagon "back on track" for them, and thus not incriminating anyone else - leaving us to suspect anyone who might have moved with him, and end up lynching yet more Villagers. This is, of course, completely hypothetical, but it goes to prove the point that our days are numbered, and as such the 'Wolves can get more aggressive in shortening that window.

So, what to do? I don't know but I have an idea to propose and hope to get some discussion about it: We have 15 players left, after the night 14. Out of those we have 4 special villager roles (given that they do not kill a special role this night). If all special roles would reveal themselves that leaves 10 players which could be wolves. Every villager knows for himself that he is a villager too, so for 6 players there are only 9 possible wolves left. As we have 4 wolves left it means that nearly every second player one can choose is a wolf, giving a 50% chance to nail one.

Were we closer to the end, I might agree with this. However, we need our Baner now more than ever. Thus, this idea is... laughable at best, and devious at worst. I don't think a 'Wolf would be foolish enough to try and push this forward, but I'm not discounting the possibility.

But there is another effect, probably more important. We have 4 days of voting which should become much clearer. It does show us how 3-4 other villagers have voted. That should make it easier to discard certain patterns we can see (because we know for sure that those are villagers) and let us concentrate on others we might have not even realized till now.

We can achieve much the same effect by nailing just one 'Wolf. Not only does it buy us an extra day, it also serves to highlight who the other 'Wolves might be, thus narrowing our search further. Remember: all our previous WW games were won near the end.

Of course the negative effect is that we will lose a trusted villager every night after this big reveal. But we do not have any confirmed villager without them revealing themselves anyway so we only lose what we would otherwise not have. The only really downside I can make out right now is the loss of the Baner - but with the Void Wolf around, how much effect will he really have?

Maybe none, maybe everything. Even one saved Villager is worth keeping the Baner in the dark. After all, it not only exonerates a Villager - it buys us time.

Anyway, this is open for discussion. I really would like to hear the reasoning of everyone for or against this idea. But don't reveal yourself in the process please.

Well, you have my reasoning. First, we need to wait to see who is killed tonight. Second, we still have 2 possible bad lynches before we HAVE to get the next one right - not even every one, just the NEXT one. Third, if we do this we lose our Baner - guaranteed - with no guarantee that we get a 'Wolf. This tactic would be much more useful 2 days from now, when we've shaved the numbers and brought the odds (potentially) to better than 50/50. Remember, you weren't willing to lynch Sandover in WW2 because of the 50/50 odds of losing our Baner. Now you want to guarantee the loss of our Baner, for at best 50/50 odds of catching a 'Wolf? Really?

I'm sorry Serdoa. Nothing personal, but I feel this is the worst idea brought forth yet. Maybe in 2 days, when we're at the end of our options, but not now. No way.

[Roland]

I was thinking the exact same thing, actually, but I didn't want to start discussing it until after the night kill. Also, I'm not sure if "The Big Reveal" should be done on day 5 or day 6. I guess it depends on who the wolves kill.

This is our silver lining - we've killed a lot of villagers but the only power role that has been killed is the Seer.

How do we know anyone is who they say they are? What's to stop a 'Wolf from crying "No, I'm the Baner / Fool / Mason!" and hold up our attempt? It's 100% risk for at best 50% reward! There's no way to tell who is who! If the Baner calls out first, a 'Wolf can claim "No, he's an imposter!" Then we lynch the Baner, since he went first, and now we did the 'Wolves job for them, AND they get 100% free night kills for the rest of the game. Now, let's say the opposite happens. Let's say a 'Wolf claims to be the Baner, and now our real Baner steps forward. So we lynch the 'Wolf, but we still lose our Baner in the end. All the 'Wolves have to do is wait until after everyone has claimed - wait just long enough to avoid too much suspicion - and then anti-claim, and we'll be so completely trapped in the chaos we'll never win this thing!

You know, the more I discuss this the worse it sounds. We had this discussion already with the Fool bit earlier. Even Selrahc said it was a bad idea. This is not helping our cause - it's accept defeat before the game is even over. We can still win this! Every successful lynch buys us at least one more day! Why are we discussing throwing in the towel right now? We should be focusing all our efforts on picking out the 'Wolves from within our midst, and dragging them off to the gallows first thing tomorrow!

[Roland]

Just so you all know:

Assuming the worst possible odds, i.e. for each claim the Villager claims first, the 'Wolf claims second, and we lynch everyone in the order they claimed.

Day 5 (10 V, 4 W): Lynch Villager (9 V, 4 W)
Day 6 (8 V, 4 W): Lynch Werewolf (8 V, 3 W)
Day 7 (7 V, 3 W): Lynch Villager (6 V, 3 W)
Day 8 (5 V, 3 W): Lynch Werewolf (5 V, 2 W)
Day 9 (4 V, 2 W): Lynch Villager (3 V, 2 W)
Day 10 (2 V, 2 W: Game Over

Now, let's assume the worst possible odds with no one claiming anything.
Day 5 (10 V, 4 W): Lynch Villager
Day 6 (8 V, 4 W): Lynch Villager
Day 7 (6 V, 4 W): Lynch Villager
Day 8 (2 V, 2 W: Game Over

So, at best we gain 2 days before we bite the dust, in exchange for losing the Baner, the Fool, and two Masons. 2 goddamn days. You really think that's worth it? EVERY day we come closer to finding SOMEONE who's a 'Wolf, naturally. It's process of elimination, simple mathematics. They can't hide forever, even if they start all voting the same (and they may be doing so already). Once they do start voting all the same, finding them will be even easier! Once we find ONE 'Wolf, we buy ourselves an extra day. Do we really want to throw away all our power roles on a 50/50 chance of gaining an extra day?

Christ, I shouldn't even be arguing this. The 'Wolves are going to think I'm the Baner, or some such nonsense. Of course, if I was I'd be smart enough not to be spouting off like this in the middle of the night! I have nothing to lose here, but I really don't see the wisdom in exposing ourselves this much. Certainly not before the night is out, nor before we go through tomorrow and see what happens.

[Mardoc]

It might be worth having the masons and the fool come forth in the morning, though. It does still get us back to the problem of wolves lying and claiming those roles themselves, but that's probably also 50/50 odds of catching a wolf.

The biggest argument against delay is if the wolves get lucky and kill a power role themselves, then this tactic has less effect. Particularly the masons. On the other hand, if we tell them who to kill, the wolves don't have to get lucky.

I don't know, but we do have a while yet before we need to make the decision. Maybe we can think of more reasons pro or con. It really comes down to whether the knowledge helps us or the wolves more.

We can achieve much the same effect by nailing just one 'Wolf. Not only does it buy us an extra day, it also serves to highlight who the other 'Wolves might be, thus narrowing our search further. Remember: all our previous WW games were won near the end.

I agree, a single werewolf kill would shed a whole lot of light onto the situation. There's just that minor detail of picking one out

Even Selrahc said it was a bad idea.

Wait, is this meant to be an argument against it?

I'm still unconvinced, and I don't really want to give the wolves any info right now, but I'm not as convinced it's horrible, just possibly a bit suboptimal.

[Rowain]

What if Lewwyn is a Villager, though? Is novice still a 'Wolf, or is he then a Villager? Besides, novice moved from pocketbeetle to Cull, after Lewwyn moved to MJW (ya that one). Even if we ignore Lewwyn's switch, that would have set novice up for a tie between MJW (ya that one) and Cull - both Villagers.

Fact is Lewwyns switch spared novice the difficult decision and makes also his last minute switch to Cull a non-issue. This switch looks good in your eyes but didn't have any meaning.
That is the possible connection of Lewwyn. Now novice was perhaps more helpfull for the village than Lewwyn so I prefer to lynch Lewwyn,. If he is a wolf I'm inclined to lynch novice next if he is a villager I'm for not lynching novice.

But that aside I find it interesting that you get very vocal about novice and also against Serdoa's plan. Do you have any better idea than Serdoa? Please offer it (better close to morning so).

Alternatly we can also think about those 7 people that damned MNG but thats a job for tomorrow.

[Roland]

It might be worth having the masons and the fool come forth in the morning, though. It does still get us back to the problem of wolves lying and claiming those roles themselves, but that's probably also 50/50 odds of catching a wolf.

That's 3 people. Now subtract the 4 'Wolves, thus making it 7. Assuming we lynch a plain Villager tomorrow, that gives the 'Wolves 1 in 6 chance of finding the Baner.

I agree, a single werewolf kill would shed a whole lot of light onto the situation. There's just that minor detail of picking one out

All the more reason we should be focusing on finding them, rather than toying with insane plea bargains.

Wait, is this meant to be an argument against it?

Obviously it's against it. If you don't believe me, ask all the 'Wolves from last game what they thought of my team's Big Reveal on Day 3 (Rowain, scooter, Irgy, Serdoa - did I miss anyone?). Or better yet, ask Lewwyn what he thought - he was on my team, and wasn't even involved with the plan.

Bottom line: it's a suicidal last-ditch effort, and I dare say it skirts breaking the spirit of the no-PM rule (which was enacted, to my understanding, specifically to combat the forming of trusted networks and voting blocs). Obviously, I think Sareln would have commented by now if he objected, but I object on personal principle. I'd rather win, or lose, this thing without resorting to such measures. Maybe that's just me, and I won't judge anyone negatively if they disagree, but that's how I feel. I want to win this, but I want to do it "the old fashioned way." To do otherwise feels like gaming the system, regardless of whether it's allowed or not.

I digress.

[Sareln]

Bottom line: it's a suicidal last-ditch effort, and I dare say it skirts breaking the spirit of the no-PM rule (which was enacted, to my understanding, specifically to combat the forming of trusted networks and voting blocs). Obviously, I think Sareln would have commented by now if he objected, but I object on personal principle. I'd rather win, or lose, this thing without resorting to such measures. Maybe that's just me, and I won't judge anyone negatively if they disagree, but that's how I feel. I want to win this, but I want to do it "the old fashioned way." To do otherwise feels like gaming the system, regardless of whether it's allowed or not.

It can be done. I won't say whether or not it should be done.

[Roland]

Fact is Lewwyns switch spared novice the difficult decision and makes also his last minute switch to Cull a non-issue. This switch looks good in your eyes but didn't have any meaning.
That is the possible connection of Lewwyn. Now novice was perhaps more helpfull for the village than Lewwyn so I prefer to lynch Lewwyn,. If he is a wolf I'm inclined to lynch novice next if he is a villager I'm for not lynching novice.

Sacrifice one 'Wolf, potentially, to save another? I see what you're saying now, I guess, but frankly I'm not convinced ANY 'Wolf worth his salt would do such a thing on Day 1. After all, there was no danger of any 'Wolves being on the block (unless Lewwyn is a 'Wolf; I don't recall novice being in any real danger on Day 1). I don't know. Honestly, the more I think about it the more it confuses me, and frankly I think the whole notion is ridiculous.

But that aside I find it interesting that you get very vocal about novice and also against Serdoa's plan. Do you have any better idea than Serdoa? Please offer it (better close to morning so).

It's not even about novice or Lewwyn. Replace novice with Mardoc and Lewwyn with Gold Ergo Sum and I'd feel exactly the same - it's just a silly theory, with no foundation in logic. I can think of no viable reason whatsoever for the 'Wolves to try such a stunt on Day 1, let alone even think of it. It's just too... convoluted, I guess? I don't know. That's my feeling, anyway. I'm not going to belabor the point. Agree to disagree? :neenernee

As for having a better plan, yes I think I do - lynch zakalwe! :neenernee Seriously though, yes I feel I have a better plan, or at least a plan I like better because I feel it's based upon better theories than that crazy one Serdoa's proposing. Honestly, I think it made more sense when he kept saying I'm a 'Wolf - at least you can always fall back on that age-old idea: "He can't be that vocal and be a 'Wolf. ...Or can he? Dun DUN DUN" {Cue zakalwe} "Damn straight!"

Seriously though, why not fire&ice, if Serdoa's so hung up on saving zakalwe? Or Gold Ergo Sum? Or Bruindane?! Christ, he didn't even vote yesterday! Why don't we save ourselves the trouble of waiting to see if he'll bother tomorrow, and just lynch him ourselves - beats getting yet ANOTHER mod-kill (and why the 'Wolves couldn't have just eaten Cull is beyond me; poor sportsmanship, IMHO). (In case you can't tell, I'm being facetious. )

I would rather lynch someone with better evidence. I still don't believe the 'Wolves would put forth one of their own as Mayor, and before you mention Selrahc saying that they would I think they would rather have had him be Mayor, especially since he wasn't a power role this time. After all, it was his notion that a 'Wolf Mayor wouldn't be a bad thing, per se. Since he was the only one bold enough to bring it up, it stands to reason (in my eyes) that he would be the only one bold enough to try such a scheme - and succeed.

If you want to talk about voting records, let's look at some alternatives:
Mardoc - safe vote Day 1, did not vote for Selrahc Day 2, safe vote Day 3, finally lynches a someone (a Villager!) on Day 4 - after someone raised the very theory of perfect voting records, and was it not Mardoc himself that raised such a notion?

scooter - safe vote Day 1, did vote Selrahc Day 2, safe vote Day 3, and safe vote Day 4! By far among the best voting records in the game thus far!

Ichabod - safe vote Day 1, was first to vote Selrahc Day 2, safe non-vote Day 3 (by voting himself!), and safe vote Day 4. Wow, I think his record beats out scooters! After all, no sane 'Wolf would vote for himself!

fire&ice - see Ichabod, except Day 4 he voted Mr. Nice Guy and lynched a Villager, which is completely understandable from a self-preservation point of view.

Rowain - safe vote Day 1, did not vote for Selrahc Day 2 because - wait for it - he was on a personal crusade against pocketbeetle that continued into... Day 3, where he lynched a Villager, and thereby secured his place in the halls of the innocent forever more, until Day 4, where he placed a safe vote.

Gold Ergo Sum - safe vote Day 1, did vote Selrahc Day 2, safe vote Day 3, safe vote Day 4.

Now, granted, I'm not saying all of these are 'Wolves, but I would be highly surprised if none of them are. I think at least one, maybe two are 'Wolves. The rest are just lucky (or unlucky, depending on how you look at it) Villagers.

Alternatly we can also think about those 7 people that damned MNG but thats a job for tomorrow.

We could. They're as likely to be 'Wolves as they are Villagers, however. Ditto for those of us who tried to damn fire&ice. It can be twisted either way, like almost everything in this game, so I'm honestly at a loss as to how either is going to help us - although that doesn't mean I'm not staring intently at each of those names trying to see who might be a 'Wolf!

Honestly, I'm trying my hardest to come up with someone. Maybe I shouldn't be so critical of Serdoa for doing the same. I just feel like he's bouncing from one obvious Villager to another, instead of seeking out the chinks in the 'Wolves' armor. Perhaps I'm being unfair? It's not intentional, in any case. I just feel like we need to be focusing ourselves better, since obviously we haven't been doing a strong enough job up until now (and I'm certainly as guilty as anyone of this; after all, I completely missed the mark on pocketbeetle when so many others had him pegged right).

[Ichabod]

Sorry, Roland and village. I'm just a villager without time. I had time to play until half of day 3 and I got pretty busy afterwards. The problem is that I'll only be able to start helping again after sunday afternoon.

After Selrahc's kill I got completely lost regarding suspects. The thread just become too full of posts to properly follow, let alone reading it again.

Since I'm not sure about anything anymore, my voting became quite a mess... Sorry about that...