Well, I was right that Rusten is pulling all his units over to Inpulsa - I guess the Mids are important for him? In any case, I was not going to sit around waiting - my peace treaty with SD soon comes to an end, so I either do something now or never.
It was a long day though, so I'll not write long stories. I had 10 Catapults nearby and 20+ units that could attack this turn.
Unit rundown on both sides:
Me:
11 HAs
10 Catapults
6 Axes
1 Longbow
1 Spear
1 Chariot
1 Archer
Him:
3 Longbow
1 X-Bow
1 HA
1 War Elephant
6 Axeman
1 Spear
2 Archer
First decision: Bombard his defenses or slam all catapults into the city?
That one was easy in the end, though I thought a good 45 minutes about it. Bombarding would have taken too long. I could already see that he has more units nearby which he could have moved into the city (Spear, LB) with a good chance of more in the fog. Also: Walls. The question thus became more if I could take the city without bombarding - and some simming told me that it was not that unlikely. Not certain either of course but if he got another 5+ units in there I will not take it, even if I bombard the defenses away. More likely I get counter-attacked while I sit on flat ground.
So, the catapults go in and ... die, as expected. But the defenders are very damaged - not the maximum on all of them unfortunately but the LBs as the strongest defenders are down to 3.8, 2.8, 2.8.
Second decision: Which order to attack?
That is an interesting decision. If I believed that for example sending in the Archer would weaken a top defender enough to help me overtake him, losing the archer would probably be better than a HA. I decided against it because with the amount of units I had having the Archer to kill a defender that is left with a few HP is most likely better.
As the first LB was still strong I sent in one of the HA (unpromoted) with 32% odds to withdraw or win, expecting him to die. What he did.
The second HA had 51.4% odds to win or withdraw - and he withdrew.
At this point I got a little nervous. I have not that many units spare. But to late to turn back now, having lost all Catapults. So the next HA goes in, with 48.5% odds - and wins. Phew, that is a relief, but also taking these 3 units up to now also expected that at least one wins. I then attacked with my LB as he had best odds with 69% against the X-Bow. I thought I was smart here as my HA would have had to attack his WE at 50% odds and I hoped to get another unit to get the WE as defender... which of course did not happen. I didn't know this at this point though and instead attacked with an Axe at 55% odds into his LB - won again.
So, now I surely would get his WE as defender right? No... his Axes now defended against mine. So I bit the bullet and attacked with a HA. 52.6% to withdraw and win - WIN.
Now I felt good. I have won 3 coinflips, won a 70%, withdrew a 50% and lost a 30%. I should have lost one of those coinflips on average.
Unfortunately we still were not in the mop up phase. The next fight was a HA against one of his Axeman. With just 59.2% this could go either way - but I won. Now, finally mop up could start.. or? 84.6% against his Spear... and I lost. Unexpected, though i was very lucky up to now so while I had hoped to not lose this fight overall I had expected to lose a unit - just earlier already. To add insult to injury though his Spear did not even get damaged by my HA... that spear was still at 2.0 health... so another HA it is. And we won.
Surely, at this point it now there was no suspense left? Well, I had 12 units left to attack and he had 9 to defend. If that are not all 90%+ fights this can go sour quickly. So, what is next? A HA against an Axe... at 75% odds. Fuck. But it won! And the next one.. had 75% odds.. this is killing me at this point. But this HA won as well - and the next one, at 75% as well. Than two axes at 82% odds against the archers - both won.
So, the last fights....
Axeman vs HA at 70% - WIN
Chariot against LB at 86% - WIN
Axeman vs Axeman at 67% - LOSS
Axeman vs Axeman at 99% - WIN
So, mop-up phas... oh, we've taken the city, I guess no mop-up phase.
Overall I was lucky I think but not overly so. But I need someone who is smarter to calculate how lucky actually.
WON - 50%, 50%, 50%, 70%, 60%, 85%, 75%, 75%, 75%, 82%, 82%, 70%, 86%, 99%
LOST - 30%, 85%, 67%
I think for an average result I should have lost one of the 50% battles.
Anyhow, the city is mine, I kept it and now I have a Chariot, a Spear and an Archer defend it!
Hopefully Lewwyn can take some more cities of Rusten and I can mop up the other 3 cities nearby. I will need many more catapults I think - or Knights. Though they will need a few more turns to be ready - not that many mind you, I will finally start my first GA rather soon and will have Mids to aid it. But I'm not sure what to do till then tbh. I don't think Rusten can counter-attack - well, he probably can if he gives up all his core cities to Lewwyn - but I don't think I want to stay at war. I haven't offered peace to him but maybe I should. I have my doubts that he takes it though.
It was a long day though, so I'll not write long stories. I had 10 Catapults nearby and 20+ units that could attack this turn.
Unit rundown on both sides:
Me:
11 HAs
10 Catapults
6 Axes
1 Longbow
1 Spear
1 Chariot
1 Archer
Him:
3 Longbow
1 X-Bow
1 HA
1 War Elephant
6 Axeman
1 Spear
2 Archer
First decision: Bombard his defenses or slam all catapults into the city?
That one was easy in the end, though I thought a good 45 minutes about it. Bombarding would have taken too long. I could already see that he has more units nearby which he could have moved into the city (Spear, LB) with a good chance of more in the fog. Also: Walls. The question thus became more if I could take the city without bombarding - and some simming told me that it was not that unlikely. Not certain either of course but if he got another 5+ units in there I will not take it, even if I bombard the defenses away. More likely I get counter-attacked while I sit on flat ground.
So, the catapults go in and ... die, as expected. But the defenders are very damaged - not the maximum on all of them unfortunately but the LBs as the strongest defenders are down to 3.8, 2.8, 2.8.
Second decision: Which order to attack?
That is an interesting decision. If I believed that for example sending in the Archer would weaken a top defender enough to help me overtake him, losing the archer would probably be better than a HA. I decided against it because with the amount of units I had having the Archer to kill a defender that is left with a few HP is most likely better.
As the first LB was still strong I sent in one of the HA (unpromoted) with 32% odds to withdraw or win, expecting him to die. What he did.
The second HA had 51.4% odds to win or withdraw - and he withdrew.
At this point I got a little nervous. I have not that many units spare. But to late to turn back now, having lost all Catapults. So the next HA goes in, with 48.5% odds - and wins. Phew, that is a relief, but also taking these 3 units up to now also expected that at least one wins. I then attacked with my LB as he had best odds with 69% against the X-Bow. I thought I was smart here as my HA would have had to attack his WE at 50% odds and I hoped to get another unit to get the WE as defender... which of course did not happen. I didn't know this at this point though and instead attacked with an Axe at 55% odds into his LB - won again.
So, now I surely would get his WE as defender right? No... his Axes now defended against mine. So I bit the bullet and attacked with a HA. 52.6% to withdraw and win - WIN.
Now I felt good. I have won 3 coinflips, won a 70%, withdrew a 50% and lost a 30%. I should have lost one of those coinflips on average.
Unfortunately we still were not in the mop up phase. The next fight was a HA against one of his Axeman. With just 59.2% this could go either way - but I won. Now, finally mop up could start.. or? 84.6% against his Spear... and I lost. Unexpected, though i was very lucky up to now so while I had hoped to not lose this fight overall I had expected to lose a unit - just earlier already. To add insult to injury though his Spear did not even get damaged by my HA... that spear was still at 2.0 health... so another HA it is. And we won.
Surely, at this point it now there was no suspense left? Well, I had 12 units left to attack and he had 9 to defend. If that are not all 90%+ fights this can go sour quickly. So, what is next? A HA against an Axe... at 75% odds. Fuck. But it won! And the next one.. had 75% odds.. this is killing me at this point. But this HA won as well - and the next one, at 75% as well. Than two axes at 82% odds against the archers - both won.
So, the last fights....
Axeman vs HA at 70% - WIN
Chariot against LB at 86% - WIN
Axeman vs Axeman at 67% - LOSS
Axeman vs Axeman at 99% - WIN
So, mop-up phas... oh, we've taken the city, I guess no mop-up phase.
Overall I was lucky I think but not overly so. But I need someone who is smarter to calculate how lucky actually.
WON - 50%, 50%, 50%, 70%, 60%, 85%, 75%, 75%, 75%, 82%, 82%, 70%, 86%, 99%
LOST - 30%, 85%, 67%
I think for an average result I should have lost one of the 50% battles.
Anyhow, the city is mine, I kept it and now I have a Chariot, a Spear and an Archer defend it!
Hopefully Lewwyn can take some more cities of Rusten and I can mop up the other 3 cities nearby. I will need many more catapults I think - or Knights. Though they will need a few more turns to be ready - not that many mind you, I will finally start my first GA rather soon and will have Mids to aid it. But I'm not sure what to do till then tbh. I don't think Rusten can counter-attack - well, he probably can if he gives up all his core cities to Lewwyn - but I don't think I want to stay at war. I haven't offered peace to him but maybe I should. I have my doubts that he takes it though.
