Ok, a look at the action. Luckily pindicator was able to play yesterday, and then tonight when the turn got back to me he had internet right then, so I was able to play with him sending instructions. The short of it is yesterday after Thoth played, the situation changed.
Thoth had a lot more units this turn. Not pictured: 18 units stuffed into Murder Squad, which is of course 1 unit more than the 17 hitters available. I talked to pindicator and he decided to change tactics. He's concerned that there are no Horse Archers visible, and he says he know they're out there. So the path forward instead came to be targeting hitters and get some cheap kills, then offer peace. The goal was to hit a bunch of axes and swords which were disproportionately located on the hill rather than the city. As a result, while I did hit the city once or twice, I mostly attacked the hill. The toughest 3 battles of the whole turn were first.
Guerilla 2 Drill 2 Archer, and it was still 84%. This was followed by a pair of Shock Axes at 76%, both won. From there the odds got extremely favorable as these units were not well-promoted. Full combat log (I stopped tracking health remaining halfway through as it got too hard):
Quote:drill2 samurai vs g2d2 archer: 84% WIN (5.3h)
drill2 samurai vs shock axe: 76% FLAWLESS WIN
drill2 samurai vs shock axe: 76% WIN (3.2h)
c1 drill2/3 samurai vs axe: 87% WIN (3.4h)
drill2 samurai vs shock sword: 90% WIN (2.2h)
drill 2/3 samurai vs shock sword: 90% WIN (6.6h)
c1 drill2 samurai vs archer: 99% WIN
drill 2/3 samurai vs axe: 92% WIN
drill 2/3/4 samurai vs axe: 95% WIN
drill2/form samurai vs axe: 90% WIN
drill2/form samurau vs axe: 90% WIN
drill 2/3/4 samurai vs sword: 96% WIN
drill 2/form samurai vs sword: 97% WIN
Just an utter stomp. That's 7 axes, 4 swords, and 2 archers dead and none in return. There were some very weird things going on with Drill/Archers/Axes. For example, it's entirely unclear why there was a 99% archer attack in the middle of all this followed by axes that were clearly better defenders. I know it has to do with First Strike weirdness, but it's whatever. Pindicator was originally only planning to have me do 3-4 attacks and pop a GG, but as the results were good, he had me keep going:
Pindicator Wrote:Go ahead and keep hitting the sxe/sword stack as long as it is 90%+.
His other instructions were to leave most of the Formation Samurai un-used as Horse Archer defenders. This leaves the following as the situation post-turn.
I moved up a few Samurai to reinforce in case Thoth doesn't accept peace. But offer peace I did.
Basically pindicator felt with the threat of Horse Archers there was real risk to losing the stack, and Murder Squad was not holdable, so this was all for raze gold anyway. So peace it is. Unless Thoth does not accept anyway. Then my marching orders are: 1) preserve the stack, 2) if you can burn the city while accomplishing #1 that's a bonus.