[no players] CiVI Lurking Part II: Sophomore Slump

[Esteon]

Okay... That's even more funny - what I meant is that Woden's almost won. He has culture, science, wonders, good mid-end game civ, now military and still space to expand. If Alhambram fails the attack (which is quite possible, don't you think?), then he'll have half the world at disposal.

Meanwhile the other half are fighting for 1-2 cities.

[Commodore]

Yep, this is Davy's game. TheArchduke is foolishly making what could be an easy snipe (isolated tundra iron city) instead an existential threat. Never kill all of a rival's hope unless you are fully prepared to make it a battle to the death.

[hzhp800]

But I get the feeling that Singaboy is going to get ruined by a two-front joint war even though he has done nothing to deserve it.

If you settle towards a human neighbour especially into a bonus-region like Kilimanjaro you can expect this neighbour to be unhappy. If you take a CS your neighbour has invested several envoys into you can expect this neighbour to be unhappy.

Singaboy has done both and he signed peace without making sure that his neighbours spend their huge armies.
Now both have a lot of expensive units that are going to be useless soon. What else can those 2 do than fight a war? And there is no other target around than Singaboy who has done nothing to earn a friendly feeling from any of them.
Not to mention that Singaboy as Germany with its production power is going to be a huge threat for both of them in the long run.

I generally agree with what Rowain and others are saying. Oledavy and TheArchduke have good reasons to attack Singaboy. But when I said Singaboy didn't "deserve" this, I was referring to the fact that Singaboy had turned in one of the top 3 performances (including oledavy and Woden) among all the players this game. He had dug himself out of a huge hole and was on the cusp of working himself into an actual top 3 position with a legitimate chance to win. Hence, getting wiped out at the hands of TheArchduke seemed to me an unfortunate and less than ideal outcome, so I was trying to express the sentiment that Singaboy "deserved" better than this given his superior play. I guess I just assume that players who play the best game "deserve" to win even though they often won't due to bad luck etc. But, of course, it's not TheArchduke's or anyone else's job to give Singaboy what he deserves in this sense (unless he deserves a loss  ) since that's not how the game is played. Of course, there are many senses of desert and I don't mean to suggest that mine is the only correct one, I just want to share where I was coming from.

That being said, Singaboy has undermined his case a little since I think he significantly underestimated the threat posed by TheArchduke. I don't know why he thought a gifted cotton (which I think he actually intended to sell to TheArchduke for 50 gold, an offer TheArchduke would not have appreciated) would be enough to defuse the threat. I think Singaboy must have thought he could see the light at the end of the tunnel from climbing out of his early hole into a competitive position, but he reached for it too quickly before completely securing his position. I think Singaboy should have offered TheArchduke a DOF immediately after the first one expired to see where he stood. If he had refused, Singaboy would have probably played this differently and been better prepared for it. 

While on the subject of unfair lurker speculation: Would it have been a good idea for Singaboy, as soon as he realized he was going to be attacked by both neighbors, to immediately offer Seoul to oledavy for peace and then focus all of his efforts on defending Frankfurt? As a global lurker I think that oledavy would have taken this deal and this would put Singaboy in a much better position overall for defending Frankfurt and staying in the game. Am I right about that? And if I am would such a play make sense from Singaboy's unspoiled perspective as well or is it something only a lurker could see?

[Esteon]

What I think Singaboy should do is:
- ignore Seoul, shorten the front by retreating to Ulm and then perhaps offer ceding Seoul for peace -> in that time move most of military to Frankfurt - the city he really needs.

BTW: I don't like the vibe Singaboy is giving -> if he gets angry enough (and the stacking unfair obstacles may lead to that), he may just forfeit the game... (that's why I sent him some 'lurker encouragement')

[Mardoc]

Alhambram signed another DoF with Woden.

[tilt]

Sometimes multiplayer games are just headbangingly frustrating, and I forget how much of who wins and loses these things comes down purely to who your neighbor is. When I started running away with the game, my neighbors both immedietly dogpiled me and set me back. When Woden starts running away with things, his neighbor upgrades to having the most powerful military in the game, and then signs another DoF with him  



Now Woden just gets to build and tech in peace for another 30 turns, as if he needed any more time to do that. To round things out, Singaboy continues to fight me tooth and nail for a dry border city that was my suzerain to begin with when he just lost his second best city to Archduke. I'm having a lot of fun with this game, but I'm going to be extremely irritated if I lose because of my opponent's bad metagame decisions. I just don't understand what Alhambram is thinking. Does he think Woden is going to be less scary in 30 turns?

Gee, if only there was someone with some free military, maybe a handful of horsemen, who could have hit Woden to distract him, split his forces, and give Alhambram hope and confidence...  

Seriously, Alhambram's approach makes sense to me.  He's got a non-zero chance of pulling this out if he can keep going with the religious sneakiness while everyone else is focused on the more tangible threats.  Attacking Woden on his own, when Woden is prepared and ahead in tech, wasn't going to work, so it was well done on his part to recognize and abort.

[shallow_thought]

Disclaimer: I know nothing - no MP experience, no Civ VI.

oledavy is both right and wrong. There is pure luck involved - he has no common border with Woden. Taking action directly against the new leader was not a good idea. He'd have marched his army half-way across the world and seen other players reap the rewards.

Against that, he chose to attack Seoul. If he hadn't, or had waited, TheArchduke might well have joined - or at least been free to join - an attack on Woden. Instead, the war against Singaboy opened a better (?) opportunity for TheArchduke, and that slammed the door firmly shut on Alhambram's potential attack. He relied on others to deal with the leader and is now ... disappointed.

If Woden was the threat, then he needed to signal this to TheArchduke. DoF Singaboy and the TheArchduke, make it clear that Woden should be the target? Too late now...

This game has the potential to be a classic study in the difficulties in communicating and forming a clear picture of other player's intentions, quite aside from the entertainment value. I suspect that as the community gets more used to Civ VI some of this uncertainty will evaporate, but for the moment it's fun.

[Esteon]

For me it's another beautiful study of how diplo changes the game. Ask yourself this: What would happen with full diplo? Or with some (pick any version)?

Now we have a clear leader and every (almost, now) player is waiting for the others to bring him some.

I just hope the oledavy stops 'being so critical' (euphemism of the day). When he sees that he got the best start (I mean the map, barbs, CS, the whole package), his ears may burn...

[Mardoc]

oledavy is both right and wrong. There is pure luck involved - he has no common border with Woden. Taking action directly against the new leader was not a good idea. He'd have marched his army half-way across the world and seen other players reap the rewards.

Yeah, I think that's mainly where I come down.  On the one hand, maybe OleDavy didn't have any good opportunities to mess with Woden, due to the map and due to his previous war with Archduke and Singaboy.  But on the other, I get very annoyed when people make complaints that boil down to 'they aren't helping me win'.  Edit: And even more so when the complaint is 'he's fighting back', like with Singaboy.

Singaboy messed up in failing to predict that TheArchduke might want to hit him (no scouting units, in particular)...but once his army was all deployed toward Seoul, it made sense to leave it there rather than risk having it in transit while losing on both fronts.  Alhambram can't win if Woden wins, but also probably can't drag Woden down on his own.  He did already force Woden to spend cogs on military, but attacking and losing would have been even worse for OleDavy's chances here, let alone for Alhambram himself.

[mackoti]

What I learn till now seeing all this wars at tech parity is that the GG are very strong, i think no great person compares to them.

[Ichabod]

Plan for Alhambram to stop Woden from getting Mahabodhi: locate where the Mahabodhi will/could go (should be easy, considering the amount of restrictions regarding placement) and put a missionary on top of that tile. So, if I know civ 6, Woden won't be able to move his workers to rush it.

Of course, he'd still need to beat Woden through natural production, but it'd definetely help.