Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I can't believe Outer Island Alliance boys are sailing around the world to do what Norse and English boys ought to be doing for themselves. Still, it's probably the right call (as long as your troops don't end up like the BEF in 1940), since Singaboy must not be allowed to run over an entire civilization without opposition.

Downsides of the decision: slows down expansion into the barbarian-held islands, and potentially weakens the home defense. Would it be possible to sign a DOF with Jester, in case he's still smarting about the burning of Pizarro? If he accepts, you have 30 turns to settle the contested islands and try to catch up to Singaboy. If not, at least we have a clue to his intentions. 

Lots of people are leery about DOFs after PBEM2*, but I think they still have their place.

*the breakdown in diplomacy towards the end, where both you and Woden stumbled into war with Alhambram despite no one really wanting it, because no one wanted to be on the wrong end of a 2v1, was admittedly hilarious. I'm a little sad we probably won't see something like that again.

[oledavy]

Turn 87

Finally got past the Construction/Games and Recreation Bottleneck, and not a moment too soon. 



Let's see what's happening in the eastern front. 



Welp, I'm glad I didn't dive in with the Rocinante. There was at least one back-up galley. It looks like he's going to try and simply wall me off. I debated briefly between heading south around what I hope is an island to attack at his supply lines. At this point though, I believe it's more important that I protect Midgard against attack from the sea and prevent the Germans from putting the city under siege. 



It's a shame, really. This city is very defensible. That mountain makes it a pain in the ass to assault, combined with a river protecting the southern approach. If Jpper007 had a single 36 strength unit in the city, and had completed those walls, I would say he could probably hold this city. I feel he's going to come up short though, especially when Singaboy lines up some archers east of that horseman. 

Jpper007 didn't ask for horses. I'm beginning to believe he doesn't know you need two of a resource to produce a unit without an encampment? He's just spent a ton of gold on something, but he didn't upgrade to a sword. Did he think you can upgrade to a sword with only one iron? Can you and I'm mistaken? Either way, I hope he does indeed have something up his sleeve. 



He needs a horse or sword out as soon as possible. 

At home, I got my second trade route going from Europa to Ganymede, speeding up its growth to size 7.



I changed governments in anticipation of a worker push, and in preparation for the move I'm about to pull on Woden. 



I feel like the interface is bugged, as its saying that I'm getting 2% extra influence points from being in monarchy, despite never having been in monarchy. However, my influence hasn't shown any additional gain, Ive never had any fractional influence, so I have to assume it's just an interface issue? I wonder if anyone else is encountering the same thing. 

At any rate, Diplomatic League in hand, I embarked on my third war declaration of the game. 





Bingo.



67.4 Science Per Turn now. -2 Great Scientist Points per turn for Woden. Moreover, given his strategy this game and his investment in the city-state, he's going to be reluctant to kill it - meaning I can probably enjoy the extra science from it for quite some time. 

Since he just pulled this move on CFCJesterfool, I trust he won't mind me returning the favor. 

My enormous SPT aside, it's worth noting I am still behind Woden and Singaboy in tech. (19 and 18 versus my 17). I expect I won't be on par with them for about a dozen more turns. It will take quite a few turns more after that for my tech lead to amount to an appreciable in game edge. There was a long period of time where they were stomping me in SPT, making approximately double or triple my science each turn. It was this shortcoming that prompted me to spam out campuses, and I have not quite yet recovered from it.

[oledavy]

I can't believe Outer Island Alliance boys are sailing around the world to do what Norse and English boys ought to be doing for themselves. Still, it's probably the right call (as long as your troops don't end up like the BEF in 1940), since Singaboy must not be allowed to run over an entire civilization without opposition.

Downsides of the decision: slows down expansion into the barbarian-held islands, and potentially weakens the home defense. Would it be possible to sign a DOF with Jester, in case he's still smarting about the burning of Pizarro? If he accepts, you have 30 turns to settle the contested islands and try to catch up to Singaboy. If not, at least we have a clue to his intentions. 

Lots of people are leery about DOFs after PBEM2*, but I think they still have their place.

*the breakdown in diplomacy towards the end, where both you and Woden stumbled into war with Alhambram despite no one really wanting it, because no one wanted to be on the wrong end of a 2v1, was admittedly hilarious. I'm a little sad we probably won't see something like that again.

I've been mulling it over. On the one hand, I'm not really afraid of anything he sends my way. Additionally, I want to be able to attack him if he tries to settle the islands in the interim. On the other hand, considering the fact I just pissed off Woden, it may be worthwhile to explore the option. Having less enemies is always great, and while I doubt he will ever be friends with me at this point, he might see the value in a short-term partnership. 

I'll continue to think on it between now and when the turn arrives tomorrow. 

I'm going to try to allocate forces where I still make progress (albeit slower), towards clearing the barbs off Saturn with an archer and warrior, while sending two archers to help Jpper007. I will be revisiting this continually though, depending on how the situation is shaping up on his continent. We'll see what develops.

[suboptimal]

Jpper007 didn't ask for horses. I'm beginning to believe he doesn't know you need two of a resource to produce a unit without an encampment? He's just spent a ton of gold on something, but he didn't upgrade to a sword. Did he think you can upgrade to a sword with only one iron? Can you and I'm mistaken? Either way, I hope he does indeed have something up his sleeve.

You can upgrade units with only one copy of a required resource.

I feel like the interface is bugged, as its saying that I'm getting 2% extra influence points from being in monarchy, despite never having been in monarchy. However, my influence hasn't shown any additional gain, Ive never had any fractional influence, so I have to assume it's just an interface issue? I wonder if anyone else is encountering the same thing. 

There have been several reports on CivFanatics about this particular interface screen being buggy after the patch, typically with the bonuses for Monarchy showing.  As near as anyone can tell they are displayed but you aren't actually earning them.

[oledavy]

Jpper007 didn't ask for horses. I'm beginning to believe he doesn't know you need two of a resource to produce a unit without an encampment? He's just spent a ton of gold on something, but he didn't upgrade to a sword. Did he think you can upgrade to a sword with only one iron? Can you and I'm mistaken? Either way, I hope he does indeed have something up his sleeve.

You can upgrade units with only one copy of a required resource.

I feel like the interface is bugged, as its saying that I'm getting 2% extra influence points from being in monarchy, despite never having been in monarchy. However, my influence hasn't shown any additional gain, Ive never had any fractional influence, so I have to assume it's just an interface issue? I wonder if anyone else is encountering the same thing. 

There have been several reports on CivFanatics about this particular interface screen being buggy after the patch, typically with the bonuses for Monarchy showing.  As near as anyone can tell they are displayed but you aren't actually earning them.

So, can Jpper007 upgrade to swords from warriors with only 1 iron?

[suboptimal]

Jpper007 didn't ask for horses. I'm beginning to believe he doesn't know you need two of a resource to produce a unit without an encampment? He's just spent a ton of gold on something, but he didn't upgrade to a sword. Did he think you can upgrade to a sword with only one iron? Can you and I'm mistaken? Either way, I hope he does indeed have something up his sleeve.

You can upgrade units with only one copy of a required resource.

So, can Jpper007 upgrade to swords from warriors with only 1 iron?

Yes.  However, he will not be able to build any warriors as long as he has a source of iron available.  I don't know if warriors become available again if he loses all sources of iron (never had that happen in any of my SP games to find out).

[oledavy]

Can you upgrade in the lands of someone with whom you have OB?

And the archer to crossbow upgrade is 200 gold, right?

[suboptimal]

Can you upgrade in the lands of someone with whom you have OB?

And the archer to crossbow upgrade is 200 gold, right?

Upgrades can only occur in your own territory.

I believe that archer to crossbow upgrades dropped to 190 after the summer patch because the difference in production costs changed (Archers up to 60 cogs from 50).

[oledavy]

Turn 88

So, Jpper007 refused my offer of horses. I held the turn for a bit before leaving today (I still had plenty of time until Archduke's window), to see if Jpper007 would respond to my question if he needed iron or horses offered. 

At this point, I'm beginning to really doubt his supposed MP competence. I believe he bought that warrior into Midgard, which was a rookie move if so. He should have saved the money for an upgrade. Midgard will fall this turn (88), and I'm very concerned that Asgard will soon follow it. I may need to begin considering a change in strategy from keeping Jpper007 viable to simply keeping him alive, forcing Singaboy to endure occupation penalties for as long as possible. 

The depressing thing though, is that I needed to have a military already built to effectively intervene. Any military I start building now will not arrive in time to save the capital. Moreover, my geographical position is making intervention extremely difficult. It just takes so long to move units to the front, and allied forces in Jpper007's lands are as likely to get in his way as they are to help.  I wish I had realized the threat to the Vikings sooner, but with his NAP with Archduke about to come up, I was in doubt about Singaboy's target and I figured the other neighbor would counterbalance any aggressive moves on his part. Unfortunately, Woden and Archduke have demurred to do anything with their militaries in the interim. Perhaps Singaboy's successful capture of Midgard will give them pause to reconsider their positions - but I doubt it. Apparently we all already needed to be playing as if Singaboy had been given 6 free cities....

At any rate, here's the situation around Midgard. 



I don't know why he started those walls either, they obviously weren't going to finish in time. 

The Rocinante retired westward. I'm currently moving my navy to guard the bottleneck into my waters. At this point, there is nothing else I can do to help Jpper007 navally. The remainder of this campaign will be fought on the land. Singaboy's short supply lines for new ships, his ability to heal locally, combined with the fact that most of his army is undoubtedly already landed make any attempt at an incursion into the waters east of Midgard unwise. 

The other primary task for my galleys in the coming turns is to protect my lines of communication from Woden. 



He may just keep sailing south too. 

Also, his condescending posts in the diplo thread are very quickly increasing my dislike of him. 

There is quite a bit of iron around me. One on Saturn, and another north of me in the Tundra. The best news, however, is that I already have access to the one under Callisto. 



I would rather it been under a mine, but still a nice break. 

It also increases my science by 1 SPT. 70 SPT here I come!

I also forgot that Woden had other districts that lost their Stockholm bonuses. 



-2 GSP, -2 GMP, -1 GGP. 

I intend to fight him for Newton down the road as well. I think I have a really good shot at him. 

Anyway, so the war plan. 

The good news is that my operations to clear off The Belt and Saturn are proceeding nicely. On Saturn I've been helped by units from Toronto. The barbs are now down to a spear guarding the encampment, a wounded archer, and a scout. I'm leaving one warrior to finish clearing everything off, who will promote to Battlecry and heal next turn. 

On the Belt, there is only a scout left. I'm detailing one warrior to deal with him. 

My other three warriors are on or in the process of transiting to the southernmost island, which I'm provisionally calling Uranus. There's a significant barb presence on the island, but just fortifying my warriors on coastal forests has proven to be an effective strategy thus far. 

This leaves 3 archers available to immediately assist Jpper007. 1 has already landed, but does need to heal to be combat effective. My other one is embarking from Saturn to assist. By the time Singaboy arrives at Asgard, there will be two Japanese archers on hand to assist the Vikings, my expeditionary force. I don't actually know if its possible to gift units in this game, but I will definitely consider doing that if possible, as this will likely render them more combat effective to the Vikings. 

As for the third? He's my back-up plan. I'm putting off Navigation (again), and targeting Machinery. Realistically, a tech I needed soon anyway for lumbermills and the replaceable parts Eureka. I'm about 6 turns out from finishing it, give or take a turn. I'm going to return the archer to Io, upgrade him (I will have to squeeze my economy to have enough gold for him by then), and then move him towards Jotunheim. The presence of a crossbow should be more effective at slowing Singaboy down that anything else, and may allow Jotunheim to survive for awhile as an enclave should the capital fall. I am open to adapting this plan though, depending on Jpper007. If he needs gold to upgrade something, he'll get it and I'll shelve this idea. 

As for long term plans? 

I'm resigning myself to the fact that I will likely have to fight a pro-longed land war with Singaboy over the lands of the Vikings, and am planning accordingly. 

Well, first up, I'm cramming out a bunch of builders, this will allow me to get the Feudalism Eureka in my rocky land and get a couple more mines out for more production. Europa is basically doing its own thing at this point, getting to size 7 as fast as possible, and then building an IZ and Venetian Arsenal. With this in mind, its not included in the build priorities listed here. 

The next priority is getting a spear out to get a kill for the Military Tactics Eureka, and two more settlers, one to put a city on Saturn and the other to put a city on Uranus, firmly establishing my claim to both islands and bringing me up to 7 cities. This critically will give me places to heal ships closer to the front lines. These build priorities will all complete around t100 or so. 

At this point, I will have Military Tactics done, and Feudalism finishing for access to the Medieval/Rennaisance Military Production civic, I will begin producing str. 45, resourceless, 180 cog samurai (which are indeed melee and benefit from the production boost civic for an effective 120 cog cost), and at least 2 caravels. Samurai should stack up pretty favorably against anything Singaboy is fielding at that point, and I will attempt to retake Norwegian territory from him. 

On the plus side, with my science and culture both in such great shape, I can afford to ignore infrastructure for quite some time. The cost will be in additional expansion to the three outer islands. However, I believe it's extremely important to keep Jpper007 alive, and to prevent Singaboy from securing a port on my sea. 

Longer term, I will be targeting Merchant Republic, the government (and most notably the +100% naval production civic) basically mandate going for Exploration, and Theocracy just doesn't stack up particularly well for the game I am playing here. How to get there as fast as possible is a question for another day though. For now, the focus remains on wrapping up my big infrastructure/expansion push and shifting gears to fight Singaboy.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Well, I suppose it's making the best you can of a bad situation - I'll be curious to know why the Vikings were running such a light military presence. They're the Vikings, for goodness' sake! They should be out pillaging and plundering, not being pillaged and plundered! 

Anyway, pessimistic views and possible alternatives:

It's really disheartening to see how quickly Midgard is falling. I'm all for pulling the Rocinante out and defending the approaches to the OIA. Singa doesn't even need to siege the city, and his army has already transited. With the speed of his conquest, his great general, and the uncertain positions of Woden and Jester, I'm also a bit nervous (I know, I'm always nervous) about sending in Japanese ground troops. I'm worried that the archers will arrive only to be caught up in a Viking rout. And with Singa's neighbors - who should be the ones concerned here - apparently content to fight the war to the last Japanese soldier, maybe it's worth considering abandoning Jpper to his fate.  I know! It gives Singaboy a titanic advantage! But on the plus side, you avoid a nasty ground war and can concentrate on solidifying your expansion. You preserve your units and you could potentially force Woden and the Archduke to take action or lose. Woden has demonstrated marked builder tendencies before, but we know the Archduke isn't afraid of a fight and is a solid general himself. 

Similarly, the way to fight Singa might be by pursuing a naval containment strategy, relying on your advantages in research and (hopefully) the Venetian Arsenal.  I'm really intrigued by the possibilities offered by a more advanced navy than Singaboy can field. You can hopefully match his production while fielding superior units, so you could perhaps cut off his outer islands from reinforcements and take them in detail even with a smaller army. I don't know how viable this is, but I'm envisioning something like stopping the flow of reinforcements from Germany to Scandinavia, while you build up enough troops to overwhelm his invasion force as he struggles with occupied cities. I dunno. As a desperation move, invading and conquering a weaker neighbor yourself (Spain?) while using your fleet to keep outside powers from effectively intervening could close the gap.

Basically, I feel like the current game plan, while somewhat forced on you by circumstances, doesn't do enough to leverage your advantages and gets you sucked into a losing war that will erode your tech edge. There must be a way to build infrastructure and find some way to contain the Germans that doesn't require a Pyrrhic Japanese sacrifice.