WW11 - Civilization

[Tasunke]

Honestly?

If Cyneheard is innocent, *assuming* sareln doesn't have kill block abilities, Gaspar and Catwalk are the likliest of subjects.

The only way I could be a wolf and lie about my power is if there was a fifth wolf, as the first three wolf kills confirm non 'extra vote' powers.

Meanwhile, Catwalk Sareln and Gaspar are technically unconfirmed (as far as their power).

If Sareln was telling the truth about 'not revealing' his power at night to make him a more likely wolf target, then now that it is day it would only make sense that he reveal his power.

Cyneheard, Sareln, Catwalk, and Gaspar.

Unfortunately we only have 3 tries to get it right.

Personally this feels just like the Scooter mislynch, with discussion dying down almost immediately. In fact day 5 was also low on discussion, but that time we got a wolf.

I think either

A) the wolves have simply given up

or

B) its a bait and switch ... the wolves did not protect Selrahc because they'd get a free mislynch in Cyneheard.

The only people I think could be 'stealth wolves' are Gaspar and Sareln, personally.

earlier of course (Day 4 irrc) I suspected MJW. Yet after Gaspar's reveal, MJW had to be innocent (in my mind).

Why is this??

Well we are down to 1 wolf, and so either we have a lying gaspar or a vig blocker.

I highly doubt that Jkaen's death unlocked a vig block ability for MJW, although I suppose I wouldn't put it past MJW's meta-sense to guess the village opposite of his power if this was the case. Still this is far less likely than a lying Gaspar.

Assuming Gaspar is a villager, I find it odd that he suspects me over Sareln. What is your case against me vs your faith in Sareln?

Anyways, Assuming Gaspar is village, (and Cyneheard turns up innocent), then either Sareln or Catwalk is the final wolf.

At this point though, I think if Cyneheard is innocent ... and we all believe (for whatever reason) that Catwalk and Sareln don't have scary blocker powers ... then Gaspar should be the next lynch. (and we will win I think, at that time )

The only reason I'm not voting Gaspar is because we need to find out if the only 'confirmed' roleblocker is the wolf or not. If he isn't the wolf, then I think Gaspar has induced today's lynch. Which is probably why he waited awhile today before posting at all. So that he could read what us villagers have to say first.

[Catwalk]

The only way I could be a wolf and lie about my power is if there was a fifth wolf, as the first three wolf kills confirm non 'extra vote' powers.

As much as I've scratched my head at almost everything you've said, I think this argument holds water. We have one wolf left, and either Gaspar lied about the night kill (= he's a wolf) or a wolf blocked the kill somehow. That rules out anyone with a confirmed power, on the assumption that no wolf has more than one power. I'm willing to make that assumption, although we don't have certain knowledge of it. uberfish is known to throw us curve balls. MJW has all but proven his ability as well, and I still want to know what Sareln's ability is so we can investigate his claim.

I do worry about recruiting having happened during the missionary event, though. It was put in bold letters, meaning (IMO) that it was significant information rather than fluff. And nothing similar has been stated any other night. I'm guessing it relates to Sareln's power, as he's the only one unaccounted for.

[Gaspar]

Look, you guys like to hear yourselves talk so much, and man alive you must think Elvis is still alive with the conspiracy theories. Look. There's not much to see. There have been 5 votes.

Wolves are not going to sacrifice a wolf for a mislynch. Its an asinine theory. I'm telling you, if you play wolf once you become loathe to ever give up your mates. You feel like you're part of a team and letting one go feels like you're letting the rest down. Its just natural. If they are going to sacrifice a wolf, its only in a situation where there's no possible recourse or it will win them the game.

Ask yourself this - am I more or less suspected since my failed vig shot? Clearly more. So why on earth would I move from the background to the foreground if I were NAP? Especially since we've now confirmed my target was NAP.

Day 1 - Meaningless. We believe we had 3 villagers on the block, at least 2 were confirmed. Super easy to tell what the what is.
Day 2 - Chock full of information at the end of the day, but the vote itself tells nothing.
Day 3 - This was me and novice choking. Nothing to see here either.
Day 4 - This is the ballgame. Look at the vote again, only coloring in known NAP:

Slowcheetah (6) - Catwalk Gaspar Mardoc MJW Novice Sareln
MJW (4) - Cyneheard Selrahc Slowcheetah Tasunke
Selrahc (1) - Lewwyn

This was a lynch the NAP couldn't afford to lose. If MJW goes down innocent, it opens avenues for attack on me and even the novice tinfoil hat brigade breaks out after he led 2 mislynches. If slowcheetah goes down, they lose a deep-cover wolf and they get exposed.

As close as the vote was, what do you think the likelihood that there's a NAP member on slowcheetah there? No chance. None. Also, I noted looking through the votes that Cyneheard voted with Selrahc everyday before yesterday. Typical inexperienced wolf following the experienced (likely) packleader.

That's pretty much the sole reason I put Tasunke down. I do not believe there's a snowball's chance in hell that there was a NAP member on slowcheetah.

[Catwalk]

Gaspar, has uberfish clarified if you have your shot or not? uberfish, are we supposed to know if a roleblocker removes a vig shot or merely blocks it temporarily?

[Catwalk]

Look, you guys like to hear yourselves talk so much, and man alive you must think Elvis is still alive with the conspiracy theories. Look. There's not much to see. There have been 5 votes.

Wolves are not going to sacrifice a wolf for a mislynch. Its an asinine theory. I'm telling you, if you play wolf once you become loathe to ever give up your mates. You feel like you're part of a team and letting one go feels like you're letting the rest down. Its just natural. If they are going to sacrifice a wolf, its only in a situation where there's no possible recourse or it will win them the game.

I agree that a sacrifice would only be made if it can win the game. Consider this scenario:
1) You are wolf
2) Ichabod is a lost cause, he is sacrificed
3) You lay a very heavy hand on the scooter bandwagon
4) You sacrifice slowcheetah to gain deep cover, acknowledging that he's under heavy suspicion
5) You follow up with a fake vig claim, setting up myself and Cyneheard as "the only possible explanations" and arguing convincingly that you'd never do this as a wolf

The flaw in this tinfoil theory is that the NAP needs another mislynch on top of me and Cyneheard to win. And as wolf, it's unlikely you'd be able to grab it. This is merely a tinfoil theory of course, it should only be pursued seriously if Cyneheard turns up innocent against expectations. I don't see any good reason to vote elsewhere than Cyneheard (although I'm still interested in knowing Sareln's ability). I just wanted to point out that sacrificing slowcheetah and faking a vig claim could potentially be a plausible wolf play for you, especially with your loathing of cute plays added on top of it. If you have a reputation for never playing a certain way, it becomes tempting to capitalize on it when it counts.

[Mardoc]

4) You sacrifice slowcheetah to gain deep cover, acknowledging that he's under heavy suspicion

Only...if he were going to do that, wouldn't he do it in a way that doesn't expose Selrahc, too? Then he could have started the mislynches earlier. Trading one wolf for credibility is unlikely, trading two is downright odd.

[Tasunke]

But then again, Lewwyn had already revealed Selrahc and Slowcheetah as wolves ... at least to those that didn't feel he was a wolf.

It got to the point where I had to choose between Lewwyn and Selrahc, (at least for a day or two) and I am glad I chose correctly.

Yes it is unfortunate that I did not vote for slowcheetah ... but after Gaspar's post about MJW I was pretty close to switching. Probably would have if it ended up as a tie.
---------------------------------------

Now I think that the Catwalk = baner ... so vig baner? Is pretty silly at this point.

Since when has a baner blocked vig kills?

I think it is far more plausible that the Blocker is either Sareln or Cyneheard ... IF there is a blocker.

The Catwalk = kill block (even for vig) theory seems a lot like my earlier theory that Selrahc's vote block against me could somehow be interpreted as a role-block ability.

I think we should lynch Cyneheard first, since he seems the likliest, 'simplest' suspect.

IF he proves to be innocent, then I'd say it depends on whether you trust Sareln's non disclosure or Gaspar's full disclosure more.

[Gaspar]

I agree that a sacrifice would only be made if it can win the game. Consider this scenario:
1) You are wolf
2) Ichabod is a lost cause, he is sacrificed
3) You lay a very heavy hand on the scooter bandwagon
4) You sacrifice slowcheetah to gain deep cover, acknowledging that he's under heavy suspicion
5) You follow up with a fake vig claim, setting up myself and Cyneheard as "the only possible explanations" and arguing convincingly that you'd never do this as a wolf

The flaw in this tinfoil theory is that the NAP needs another mislynch on top of me and Cyneheard to win. And as wolf, it's unlikely you'd be able to grab it. This is merely a tinfoil theory of course, it should only be pursued seriously if Cyneheard turns up innocent against expectations. I don't see any good reason to vote elsewhere than Cyneheard (although I'm still interested in knowing Sareln's ability). I just wanted to point out that sacrificing slowcheetah and faking a vig claim could potentially be a plausible wolf play for you, especially with your loathing of cute plays added on top of it. If you have a reputation for never playing a certain way, it becomes tempting to capitalize on it when it counts.

Except that you're not really portraying it accurately. I didn't have Ichabod as a lost cause, I pushed on him long before zak's reveal. Me, zak and Sareln were the 3 on him before the reveal.

And I swapped from MJW to slowcheetah after slowcheetah's very wolfy defense, not after it was a lost cause.

Its just silly. There's no wolf in the history of the RB version of this game who has drawn as much attention to wolves as I have. There have been better villager games played than mine but if I were NAP this would be about the worst performance of all time.

[uberfish]

It was put in bold letters, meaning (IMO) that it was significant information rather than fluff.

Everything in the narrative apart from "X was eliminated" is fluff.

[uberfish]

Cyneheard (6) - Catwalk Gaspar Mardoc MJW Sareln Tasunke
Sareln (1) - Cyneheard