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WW11 - Civilization

Sareln
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Fuck it. banghead Gaspar and Tasuke have confrimed roles and so unlikely to be wolfs otherwise Cyneheard would suck. I think uberfish would rather make him the plain-villager than give him a crappy role. So the last possible wolf from the metagame viewpoint are Catwalk and Sarlen. Normally I would kill catwalk first but the wolfs can no-kill the last day so Sarlen does not have to give us anymore information.
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OH wow ... at first I was going to vote Gaspar for MJW enlightened meta-reasons ... but now I am doubly sure of Sareln.

Although Sareln, if you are a villager you should use your power on Gaspar again XD ... yea right ... because its between you or Gaspar in my eyes (if Catwalk is the wolf this game, I'd say his improvements give him a 'deserve to win' award ... at least from what yall keep going on about)

So yea ... Gaspar doesn't seem to be lying (due to Gaspar's reveal), so the only reason Sareln revealed was because he wanted Gaspar to be on his side. Sure he could have placed the blame on Catwalk, but he saw Gaspar being suspicious of me for some reason because of the Day 4 vote (even though this game, assuming Cyneheard's guild, SEEMED to be decided on Day 4, not Day 3 as Gaspar assumed.) When Slowcheetah was a wolf, all was revealed. It was revealed that slowcheetah and selrahc were both wolves, otherwise why would slowcheetah defend Selrahc so recklessly? Sure I was cautious of voting for Ichabod, but I was all tin-foil-hat zakalwe might be lying business.

So here is my theory right now.

If catwalk is the wolf ... kudos, brava, let me buy you a drink.

If Gaspar is the wolf ... meh, this is just as tin-foil-hat as if Zakalwe was a wolf.

If MJW is the wolf ... very interesting set up by Uberfish, and VERY lucky guess by MJW. I see this as being less likely than Gaspar.

And I know I'm not a wolf. But I suppose for everyone's interest, If I was a wolf then I'd be "tempted" to say kudos ... but since Day 5 and Day 6 were PREORDAINED I TELLS YOU!!! then this would practically be like a day 5 for me, as far as rating my wolf play would be concerned.

Ah ... I now see why Sareln revealed. He wanted to get the Cyneheard 'free kill' out of the way.

[SIZE="7"]HE MADE CYNEHEARD TAKE THE FALL FOR HIS OWN DAMNED GOOF.[/SIZE]

Honestly? It wasn't a goof. He wanted Cyneheard to take the fall so that he could get another mislynch. Why?

[SIZE="7"]BECAUSE HE IS THE LAST WOLF![/SIZE]

The only reason he revealed now is because he thinks he can get another mislynch on me today, and then maybe, just maybe, get a mislynch on Catwalk or Gaspar the next day.

WELL LET ME TELL YOU THIS ... I AM NOT FALLING FOR IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Selrahc and Slowcheetah threw themselves on Lewwyn's Crusading Celtic Sword on day 4, so you've been planning this (or similar) since then. Haven't you?

Yes, I know I've been wrong before, but look at my guess on Night 1 ... yes it was foolish, but it turned out to be 20% accurate. And the first post Mardoc linked to, was 100% right on my villager guesses (even though I later thought MJW was a wolf, so only 75% counts I think?). I realize that my 'empassioned posts' don't get a lot of traction, but I feel really REALLY certain on this one.

I think that when Catwalk and I were asking you about your power on Day 6, you slightly made a slip when you accused me of railroading you. This is my first forum game, but such an accusation during the circumstances of the time seems highly illogical for a villager. Why be defensive this late in the game? We had 4 whole tries to get it right ... and if we killed you, we would have a better idea of who blocked Gaspar's kill.

Oh wait. That was you.

And its NOT EVEN that you blocked his kill that makes you a wolf.

Its that you let Cyneheard TAKE THE FALL.

The ONLY reason he fell was because he was suspected of making the kill block ... if you were a villager you would have KNOWN THAT. So the only reason you could have let him die without revealing what you knew, was either out of some personal vendetta (which I hope people don't have too many of around here wink) or because you are a wolf.

I wonder if Gaspar has any shots left ...

Oh wait. You can role block him AND Kill him in the same night. tsk tsk ...

Gaspar, I am about as sure that Sareln is the wolf at this point as you were that Cyneheard was the wolf.

If Sareln isn't the wolf I'm about ready to quit ... because everything in my mind is telling me that Sareln is the wolf.

Days 1-5: plays the perfect game

Day 6: gets a mislynch

kill Mardoc (because of the suspicion on Gaspar no doubt)
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and here we are at day 7

Day 7: go for another mislynch (probably me, due to Gaspar throwing suspicions upon me the previous day)

Night 7: kill Gaspar (leaving only MJW, Catwalk, and yourself)

Day 8: The trickiest one yet ... yet somehow you have to get one of the village to turn on the other.

If Day 8, the tricky day, succeeds for you ... then congratulations: wolf Victory.
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Catwalk, how does your baner power work?

If I get mislynched today ...

then I think Catwalk should 'bane' Sareln, if you get to pick one of the wolves as a method of blocking the night kill, and then Gaspar can send a vig at Sareln.

That way ... at least one of the powers will hit! smile
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Ah, right before I leave, after some thought, isn't it that a baner has to select the villager he will protect?

If this is the case, then Catwalk should use Bane to protect Gaspar while Gaspar vigs Sareln.

At least in that way Sareln won't be able to kill and block the last baner in the same night, and he will be forced to kill either MJW or Catwalk, revealing himself to the final 2 villagers.
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Leaving now ... cya tomorrow! wink
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Well, actually, after I've said that, if he blocks Gaspar and kills him too, that would be REALLY revealing himself ... so he would actuallly have to block Gaspar and kill one of the others ... BUT that would also reveal himself because he kill-blocked again!

Therefore, the only way he could win is to try and blame Catwalk for the second kill block ...

So really, he CANT block Gaspar unless he wants to out himself ... therefore GASPAR YOU CAN DO IT!! VIG HIM AND IT WILL LIKELY KILL HIM UNLESS HE BLOCKS YOU OUT OF SHORT-TERM SELF PRESERVATION INSTINCT!!!!
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(okay leaving now wink)
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I appear to have hit something of a nerve, eh Tasunke?

Here's the thing, if I'm wolf, why the heck would I claim kill-blocker? It's just asking for the sort of trouble you just threw up in a wall of text. I got over the fact that Wolf Selrahc and Villager Cyneheard make me look guilty as sin last night and coming clean was the only way to get the village past the kill-block of Gaspar and back onto track looking for the last wolf.

Cyneheard could have easily been a wolf from my perspective since he was the other side of my coin and had that damning vote for Slowcheetah v. MJW. I could have saved him, probably, maybe, at the expense of myself in all likelihood, but that's a bad deal from my perspective. Villager w/ all charges used, or Villager with a charge still left on an ability that can stifle the night-kill? I don't think it's even close there.

I disagree with MJW's assertion that Cyneheard's ability was useless. Uberfish committed to giving everyone an ability, and being able to shut down slowcheetah is no small thing IMO.
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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Sareln, IMO there is a very good reason why you'd claim kill blocker. Unless someone were to have a double ability, the only possible explanations are:
1) Gaspar lied about his ability somehow
2) You lied about not interfering with it

We have one mislynch to spare (Gaspar, do you have your shot or not?), so that means victory for the town. We simply hang you one at a time. You've had plenty time to think about it, so I think you're aware of this. As a wolf, it's the only claim you can make. And this way, you make the claim in a way that makes it possible for both you and Gaspar to be villagers, negating the auto-win for the town by lynching both of you.

This does not prove you're a wolf, but I think it pierces your argument that a wolf would not do this. It's the only thing a wolf could do. Any other claim, and you hang.

I do acknowledge that this opens up the game for anyone to potentially be a wolf. It's fully possible that both of you are villagers, and in that situation noone has an alibi. I don't want to lynch Gaspar, we won't learn useful anything from his death and he feels innocent. It would be nice to be rid of his peptalk concerning my skill level, though lol Beyond Gaspar, I think anyone might be a wolf. MJW, I think you're giving Tasunke a pass much too easily here. Other players have marginally useful abilities, Cyneheard's doesn't stand out here.

That being said, we have excellent chances of winning. I don't get why Gaspar gets all sad and dispirited all of a sudden. If he's villager and all believe that, random selection of lynch targets would give us a 50% chance of winning. If we correctly identify one more villager, we're up to 75%. I suggest that we discuss who we believe most strongly believe to be a villager and agree to follow his vote. That way we minimize the risk of disruption from the last wolf. I'm willing to follow Gaspar's vote, provided that he gets back in the match and helps discuss the wealth of evidence we've accumulated over the game.
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Erm, ignore my percentages for now smile But I still think the town has good chances of winning.
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