Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Rowain]

I wish the roles of Bob and Irgy were reversed we would have it a lot easier now.

Sad to see Irgy beeing eaten. He was for sure not a fool.

[scooter]

Alright, I spent some time last night analyzing votes, since we are really struggling to find much of anything. After taking a look, I now have two people I highly suspect, and I'll explain my reasoning for both. One of them will not surprise you, the other one might. Here there are:

1. Zakalwe

Shocker huh? Let's look at his voting history:

Day 1: Voted for Pocketbeetle. Not only do we know that PB was lynched, but this was a "safe and irrelevant" vote from him, because PB wasn't anywhere close to MJW or Cull in votes. Just because someone casts a "safe and irrelevant" vote doesn't necessarily make them a wolf, but it's a common wolf tactic nonetheless. This days vote looks mildly suspicious by itself, but when we get to day 3, it looks extremely suspicious.

Day 2: Voted for Rowain. So not only did he jump to Rowain, but his vote was cast when Rowain was in the lead. Hmmmm. Also, on Day 2 he didn't just vote for Rowain... He voted for Mardoc, then fire&ice, then uberfish, thenRowain. Sounds like someone who has no real interest in helping, and was just sticking his vote on whoever he felt like to try to be seen as innocent. This is very much not like Zakalwe either - remember WW1 as a villager, where he rarely EVER swapped his vote. He swapped it 3 times on Day 1 and 4 times on Day 2, so in the first two days he's jumped his vote around seven times??? Seems a little odd.

Day 3: Voted for Mr. Nice Guy. Two things seem odd to me here. Yet again, he put down a "safe and irrelevant" vote on the guy who finished 4th, rather than putting something on PB or Lewwyn. Also, he was very suspicious of PB up to this point (voted for him on day 1), and suddenly he won't participate in his lynching despite being suspicious of him. This was also the first day he got some attention, collecting 3 votes early before people swapped. Looks a lot like a wolf who realized he needed to slide under the radar, as he did absolutely no swaps today, instead keeping his vote on a guy who we now know is innocent.

Day 4: Voted to lynch Mr. Nice Guy, a confirmed villager. Another oddity today: He voted for MNG early, then swapped to fire&ice, then swapped back to MNG. This wouldn't be all that strange, except MNG and fire&ice were the top two vote getters. This is why f&i seems suspicious to me, because Zakalwe "voted" for him, but once he picked up steam, Zakalwe bailed to vote for MNG instead.

Because of all these things, Zakalwe seems like hands-down our best target to lynch. He actually almost looks too obvious to me, but evidence is evidence, and he has the most against him by far. Now let's look at my other theory:

2. Ichabod

I'm less confident about this one, but his record absolutely demanded that he gets looked at. Here we go:

Day 1: Voted for Lewwyn, a "safe but irrelevant" vote as Lewwyn wasn't anywhere close to MJW or Cull

Day 2: Voted for Selrahc. This sounds great except for one thing... He was the first to slap his vote on Selrahc, so this means a lot less to me. Remember my post from earlier - if WW's vote to lynch someone, you'll usually find them early on in the vote (when they think their vote won't matter) because later it's too suspicious for them to switch away, or you'll find them piling on when it's irrelevant. Piling on didn't happen, but I am curious that maybe an early vote DID happen. This day by itself means nothing really, but when taken with everything else, it's not as great as it appears for him at first glance.

Day 3: He voted for himself. Seriously? Didn't even bother voting for someone relevant. Very, very curious.

Day 4: Kept himself at "no vote" for almost the entire day. He voted once or twice early in the day, but quickly retracted each of them. His "no vote" lasted until there was less than 10 minutes left, where he slapped a vote on fire&ice when it was obvious that his vote didn't matter, because it was a 3 vote difference with almost no time left. I think his vote was more like a "no vote" today than a vote honestly.

So Ichabod put down a no vote, a vote that basically WAS a no vote, an irrelvant vote on Lewwyn, and he was the first vote on Selrahc. Seems like he's been no help at all, so he is second on my suspicion meter.



My suspects list looks like this now:
1. Zakalwe
2. Ichabod
3. fire&ice


I am going to go ahead and vote for Zakalwe. I'd like some thoughts on my theories from the rest of you though, as I"d like to know if I"m reading too far into something. So please - vet my ideas, and my vote is subject to change if you can convince me otherwise. Gotta run now, so sorry if there's misspellings - no tiem to proofread.

[Mardoc]

I wish the roles of Bob and Irgy were reversed we would have it a lot easier now.

Sad to see Irgy beeing eaten. He was for sure not a fool.

Definitely.

I'm trying to decide what, if anything, this tells us about the wolves, and if it was related the to reveal debate.

[Rowain]

I think I like Meiz' list too

Roland

[novice]

All the night kills so far have been ex-wolves.

[Roland]

Alright, I spent some time last night analyzing votes, since we are really struggling to find much of anything. After taking a look, I now have two people I highly suspect, and I'll explain my reasoning for both. One of them will not surprise you, the other one might. Here there are:

. . .

My suspects list looks like this now:
1. Zakalwe
2. Ichabod
3. fire&ice


I am going to go ahead and vote for Zakalwe. I'd like some thoughts on my theories from the rest of you though, as I"d like to know if I"m reading too far into something. So please - vet my ideas, and my vote is subject to change if you can convince me otherwise. Gotta run now, so sorry if there's misspellings - no tiem to proofread.

Took the words right out of my mouth. That almost 100% sums up my thoughts as of yesterday when I decided to go after fire&ice. Now that someone else has independently come to the very same conclusions I have, for the very same reasons no less, I'm more certain of my suspicions. Up until now, I wanted to nail someone - and I went over, and over, and over in my head who would be better: fire&ice, or zakalwe - before I brought forth any more names, but you basically ripped all my thoughts out of my head and posted them here, so I guess that's the next best thing.

Of the three, Ichabod is the one I'm least certain of. I was thinking of going for fire&ice again today, because that would explain zakalwe's switch off him if fire&ice is indeed a 'Wolf, but I think people suspect zakalwe more overall, so better to start there ultimately. Fire&ice I'll happily lynch tomorrow, but for right now I feel zakalwe is the best bet. I'm glad I'm not alone.

[novice]

Now that someone else has independently come to the very same conclusions I have, for the very same reasons no less,

To me this looks more like a wolf jumping on to your train of thought (for nefarious reasons).

[Mardoc]

1. Zakalwe

Shocker huh? Let's look at his voting history:
Because of all these things, Zakalwe seems like hands-down our best target to lynch. He actually almost looks too obvious to me, but evidence is evidence, and he has the most against him by far. Now let's look at my other theory:

I can see the argument here.

I went back and read a bunch of his posts, and you know, he does seem suspicious for that, too. He did defend Selrahc in an offhand way (not saying he was innocent, just that he didn't see any guilt. More importantly, though, Zakalwe is constantly tossing out names he's suspicious of, and almost always new ones. Also almost always with little or no evidence; he'll summarize a general feeling. It's not just his votes that move around randomly.

Finally, yeah, post 662 is quite damning. He spends a lot of time talking about Pocketbeetle and novice being suspicious, and then abruptly throws in a vote for Uberfish, with:

So I realize I look a little strange throwing my votes around here all by myself but I'm going to give it another shot and go for Uberfish. Seems like he was involved at an early stage in sowing suspicion towards both Novice and Selrahc.

I have to get some work done soon, so rather than posting a bunch of quotes from Uberfish, you can go read his posts in this thread if you think it merits a closer look.

That, in retrospect, seems a lot more wolfish than anything to me. Villagers tend to either toss out a vote with no explanation, or spend time explaining their vote. Zakalwe

2. Ichabod

I'm less confident about this one, but his record absolutely demanded that he gets looked at. Here we go:

Day 1: Voted for Lewwyn, a "safe but irrelevant" vote as Lewwyn wasn't anywhere close to MJW or Cull

Moderately suspicious, but to my mind the thing that saves him here is that none of the top three were wolves. Safe but irrelevant seems to me the best strategy when there's a wolf at risk and you don't want to vote him or have to explain voting for a villager. Not so much when for all we know, he may have been the only one voting on a wolf.

Day 2: Voted for Selrahc. This sounds great except for one thing... He was the first to slap his vote on Selrahc, so this means a lot less to me. Remember my post from earlier - if WW's vote to lynch someone, you'll usually find them early on in the vote (when they think their vote won't matter) because later it's too suspicious for them to switch away, or you'll find them piling on when it's irrelevant. Piling on didn't happen, but I am curious that maybe an early vote DID happen. This day by itself means nothing really, but when taken with everything else, it's not as great as it appears for him at first glance.

This I could credit, except that Ichabod also argued strongly for Selrahc's demise. The day wasn't really that clearcut; if Ichabod had not argued, who knows what would have happened. This is the main exonerating evidence in my eyes, actually.

Day 3: He voted for himself. Seriously? Didn't even bother voting for someone relevant. Very, very curious.

Day 4: Kept himself at "no vote" for almost the entire day. He voted once or twice early in the day, but quickly retracted each of them. His "no vote" lasted until there was less than 10 minutes left, where he slapped a vote on fire&ice when it was obvious that his vote didn't matter, because it was a 3 vote difference with almost no time left. I think his vote was more like a "no vote" today than a vote honestly.

True, this is suspicious. Although it's also explainable by lack of time, unfortunately. I somewhat wish I hadn't switched; then Ichabod would have had to make a decision

I guess all in all, Ichabod has some points against him in my eyes, but not nearly enough.

Finally, fire&ice: he still seems suspicious to me. On the other hand, Zakalwe's been mentioning him off and on from Day 2 as 'why aren't we voting for him', with the occasional vote thrown in. If Zakalwe's a wolf, I'm inclined to consider fire&ice innocent.

[Roland]

To me this looks more like a wolf jumping on to your train of thought (for nefarious reasons).

Normally I would agree with you, except for the fact that I don't recall ever posting such thoughts, and certainly not so explicitly.

[Serdoa]

All the night kills so far have been ex-wolves.

Interesting thought. I remember one posting from me long time ago that I would not suspect uberfish simply because he was a wolf in both WW-games and therefore the chances of him being a wolf in this game too seemed rather slim (though thinking about it I guess because Sareln used randomized numbers earlier roles do not have ANY influence on the roles in this game - or more exact: the probability is not influenced. The same as with a die. If you have rolled 5 times a 6 if you rolled it a 6th time the chance for a six is still 1/6.). Anyway, maybe our wolves had the same thoughts? If so, who would be on their hit-list? scooter and Rowain are the last "old" wolves left, right?

I think I like Meiz' list too

Roland

I will for now follow this. Roland