T150 Part Three - Future Plans Ramblings
So having neglected any long-term thinking whatsoever while things looked awful, I've been doing quite a bit of it recently (thanks Pindicator!). The situation has changed extremely rapidly on our island, and a clear Mr. Cairo>Amicalola>Naufragar power dynamic has emerged. Excluding the slightest potential for a win, I think my more realistic goal for the game is to be the eventual 'winner' of the island ('realistic'
). The 1% scenario that I do win starts with that anyway, so it's what I'll shoot for.
The tougher question is how I get there. My army is here (this is pretty much the whole thing, other than garrisons):
And I need to keep it here. Naufragar was very badly damaged by my first strike, but he's started whipping his core, and I don't think I can push further. I don't think he ever signs peace, so a stack of Oromo warriors and 1st-ring culture will be absolutely critical to holding the area. It's unfortunate that I can't have a demilitarised border, but I think it was worth it. So I need to always plan around a potential attack here, and not make the same mistake I did with Pindicator.
Mostly though, what's framed my thinking is that I think Cairo and I are in a nearly zero-sum duel for control of the island. My gains are his losses, and vice-versa. My economy is catching back up to Cairo's now that Pindicator's land comes out of resistance, but that won't last forever; Cairo is either going to settle 1 or 2 Astro Islands, for 6-ish cities each. He's being slow to get the Western one, and if I'd bee-lined Astronomy instead of Gunpowder I could have gotten that for myself to close the gap, but now I don't think that's possible (now that I have Gunpowder, I think I can't bulb Astro
). I'm on a pretty tight clock, with only a short window before Cairo critically out-techs me.
So, given the zero-sum duel nature of our relationship, I believe that means I need to press the attack before it's too late, and damage Cairo badly enough to extend that clock. That doesn't mean Right Now, especially given the Naufragar situation, but it does mean Soon. There is one thing that works heavily to my advantage here: Cairo is trying to win, and the 'way to win' at RB is to get economic techs first, and then backfill military techs with a better economy (I think it's really interesting that CivForum sometimes does the other way around, e.g. Construction->Currency. Fun meta difference). So, for example, I would expect Cairo to get Education before he gets Rifling or MilTrad, thanks to both his playstyle and the general RB meta. Cairo is also settling Astro islands, which I plan to ignore; for a limited time, they'll have cost more hammers than they've paid back. I believe this could give a critical temporary window, and that I need to press it as hard as possible.
I've identified two possible avenues of attack: cuirassiers or cavalry. Initially I was drawn to cuirs, because 'sooner,' and also because Nationalism is amazing with Ethiopia. But thinking about it more, there's a big problem with them. Cairo is about to unlock Aggressive, draft-able Janissaries.
Against any other civ, I'd prefer cuirs to cavs, especially in CtH where drafting muskets is more efficient than rifles (and Oromos even more). But against the Ottomans they seem so much weaker - that 25% is a huge deal in an iffy fight (e.g. attacking a city). Janissaries are probably great against cavalry too, but I'm hoping they're not quite so scary. I'll badly damage my own economy, but I'll (hopefully) hurt Cairo's even more, which is the name of the game now. I'll need to launch a GA along the way, both to speed up the teching process, convert civics (Nationalism!), and produce more units, but I already have two GP's for that, and unfortunately there isn't much for them to bulb anymore, now that Astronomy's out.
That brings us onto the critical choices from here: Tech Path. I'm just splitting techs into Optional and Mandatory for now, although I'll need to decide on some of the Optional ones pretty quickly.
Mandatory Techs
Drama - Globe Theatre will be crucial for creating another unit hub (production sucks on this map, and mine is even worse than average).
Music - Is a prerequisite for Military Tradition.
Civil Service - Prereq for Military Tradition.
Philosophy - Prereq for Military Tradition.
Nationalism - Drafting Oromo warriors seems like an obvious move.
Military Tradition - Required for cavalry (or cuirs, if I change my mind).
Banking - Prereq for Replaceable Parts.
Paper - Prereq for Printing Press.
Printing Press - Prereq for Replaceable Parts.
Replaceable Parts - Prereq for Rifling, convert many mines->windmills for faster recovery from whips.
Rifling - Required for cavalry, sadly removes Oromo drafts.
So even that is A LOT of technologies, which is why I think I need to be really stingy when choosing between the Optional Techs. Cairo has both a headstart on research, and a better economy, so I really need to beeline the military stuff ASAP. I'll say a bit more for the Optional Techs, because there's naturally more debate to them.
Optional Techs
Astronomy - Starting with a controversial one, I'm guessing. So yeah, obviously attacking someone that has Galleons (and probably even frigates by then) without even having Astronomy seems crazy. And maybe it is. But my thinking is basically that I just need to smash Cairo on land (either overrunning his 'Cairo-land,' or Nauf's land if Cairo and I split that), and that 3000 beakers is A LOT to delay for a tech that doesn't technically help with that. I can always tech Astronomy while the attack happens. Upsides of researching the tech include both the obvious (galleons = AMAZING) and less obvious, such as being able to bulb Chemistry afterwards for Frigates too. The tech I most considered making Mandatory, and I'm super grumpy I can't bulb it anymore. 
Chemistry - Only worth it if I get Astronomy beforehand. Big plus for this is that I will have either a scientist or a merchant from Unison during the GA, and both bulb Chemistry (I'm pretty sure. Bulb paths make my head hurt, and I need to look more closely at it).
Theology - If (when) I convert to Nationalism, I'll lose Vassalage. Theocracy would be a valuable replacement, considering Buddhism will be in nearly every city, and I'll be building nearly entirely units.
Education + Economics - I don't think getting the Great Merchant is realistic (although I'm 90% sure it hasn't fallen yet), but I do think that Free Market is the absolute nuts here. This is one of the techs I'm hoping Cairo will prioritise over military stuff, giving me much-needed time. Free Market might be SO good that I want this too, but it would be extremely greedy.
- - - - -
I'd guess I have about 5 turns to change my mind, which is entirely possible. One idea that comes to mind is if Cairo delays Gunpowder long enough that cuirs wouldn't fight many janissaries in an initial push. Or maybe 1-draft Oromos (opposed to 2-draft rifles) makes up for the cuirs<janissaries problem, and I go for Astro instead of Rifling. Maybe janissaries are just so obnoxious that I can't attack at all, and I'm dooming myself here. But I feel very strongly that I need to do some serious damage to Cairo before it's too late, and if I'm right, anything past cavalry is definitely 'too late.'
So having neglected any long-term thinking whatsoever while things looked awful, I've been doing quite a bit of it recently (thanks Pindicator!). The situation has changed extremely rapidly on our island, and a clear Mr. Cairo>Amicalola>Naufragar power dynamic has emerged. Excluding the slightest potential for a win, I think my more realistic goal for the game is to be the eventual 'winner' of the island ('realistic'
). The 1% scenario that I do win starts with that anyway, so it's what I'll shoot for. The tougher question is how I get there. My army is here (this is pretty much the whole thing, other than garrisons):
And I need to keep it here. Naufragar was very badly damaged by my first strike, but he's started whipping his core, and I don't think I can push further. I don't think he ever signs peace, so a stack of Oromo warriors and 1st-ring culture will be absolutely critical to holding the area. It's unfortunate that I can't have a demilitarised border, but I think it was worth it. So I need to always plan around a potential attack here, and not make the same mistake I did with Pindicator.
Mostly though, what's framed my thinking is that I think Cairo and I are in a nearly zero-sum duel for control of the island. My gains are his losses, and vice-versa. My economy is catching back up to Cairo's now that Pindicator's land comes out of resistance, but that won't last forever; Cairo is either going to settle 1 or 2 Astro Islands, for 6-ish cities each. He's being slow to get the Western one, and if I'd bee-lined Astronomy instead of Gunpowder I could have gotten that for myself to close the gap, but now I don't think that's possible (now that I have Gunpowder, I think I can't bulb Astro
). I'm on a pretty tight clock, with only a short window before Cairo critically out-techs me. So, given the zero-sum duel nature of our relationship, I believe that means I need to press the attack before it's too late, and damage Cairo badly enough to extend that clock. That doesn't mean Right Now, especially given the Naufragar situation, but it does mean Soon. There is one thing that works heavily to my advantage here: Cairo is trying to win, and the 'way to win' at RB is to get economic techs first, and then backfill military techs with a better economy (I think it's really interesting that CivForum sometimes does the other way around, e.g. Construction->Currency. Fun meta difference). So, for example, I would expect Cairo to get Education before he gets Rifling or MilTrad, thanks to both his playstyle and the general RB meta. Cairo is also settling Astro islands, which I plan to ignore; for a limited time, they'll have cost more hammers than they've paid back. I believe this could give a critical temporary window, and that I need to press it as hard as possible.
I've identified two possible avenues of attack: cuirassiers or cavalry. Initially I was drawn to cuirs, because 'sooner,' and also because Nationalism is amazing with Ethiopia. But thinking about it more, there's a big problem with them. Cairo is about to unlock Aggressive, draft-able Janissaries.
Against any other civ, I'd prefer cuirs to cavs, especially in CtH where drafting muskets is more efficient than rifles (and Oromos even more). But against the Ottomans they seem so much weaker - that 25% is a huge deal in an iffy fight (e.g. attacking a city). Janissaries are probably great against cavalry too, but I'm hoping they're not quite so scary. I'll badly damage my own economy, but I'll (hopefully) hurt Cairo's even more, which is the name of the game now. I'll need to launch a GA along the way, both to speed up the teching process, convert civics (Nationalism!), and produce more units, but I already have two GP's for that, and unfortunately there isn't much for them to bulb anymore, now that Astronomy's out. That brings us onto the critical choices from here: Tech Path. I'm just splitting techs into Optional and Mandatory for now, although I'll need to decide on some of the Optional ones pretty quickly.
Mandatory Techs
Drama - Globe Theatre will be crucial for creating another unit hub (production sucks on this map, and mine is even worse than average).
Music - Is a prerequisite for Military Tradition.
Civil Service - Prereq for Military Tradition.
Philosophy - Prereq for Military Tradition.
Nationalism - Drafting Oromo warriors seems like an obvious move.
Military Tradition - Required for cavalry (or cuirs, if I change my mind).
Banking - Prereq for Replaceable Parts.
Paper - Prereq for Printing Press.
Printing Press - Prereq for Replaceable Parts.
Replaceable Parts - Prereq for Rifling, convert many mines->windmills for faster recovery from whips.
Rifling - Required for cavalry, sadly removes Oromo drafts.
So even that is A LOT of technologies, which is why I think I need to be really stingy when choosing between the Optional Techs. Cairo has both a headstart on research, and a better economy, so I really need to beeline the military stuff ASAP. I'll say a bit more for the Optional Techs, because there's naturally more debate to them.
Optional Techs
Astronomy - Starting with a controversial one, I'm guessing.
So yeah, obviously attacking someone that has Galleons (and probably even frigates by then) without even having Astronomy seems crazy. And maybe it is. But my thinking is basically that I just need to smash Cairo on land (either overrunning his 'Cairo-land,' or Nauf's land if Cairo and I split that), and that 3000 beakers is A LOT to delay for a tech that doesn't technically help with that. I can always tech Astronomy while the attack happens. Upsides of researching the tech include both the obvious (galleons = AMAZING) and less obvious, such as being able to bulb Chemistry afterwards for Frigates too. The tech I most considered making Mandatory, and I'm super grumpy I can't bulb it anymore. Chemistry - Only worth it if I get Astronomy beforehand. Big plus for this is that I will have either a scientist or a merchant from Unison during the GA, and both bulb Chemistry (I'm pretty sure. Bulb paths make my head hurt, and I need to look more closely at it).
Theology - If (when) I convert to Nationalism, I'll lose Vassalage. Theocracy would be a valuable replacement, considering Buddhism will be in nearly every city, and I'll be building nearly entirely units.
Education + Economics - I don't think getting the Great Merchant is realistic (although I'm 90% sure it hasn't fallen yet), but I do think that Free Market is the absolute nuts here. This is one of the techs I'm hoping Cairo will prioritise over military stuff, giving me much-needed time. Free Market might be SO good that I want this too, but it would be extremely greedy.
- - - - -
I'd guess I have about 5 turns to change my mind, which is entirely possible. One idea that comes to mind is if Cairo delays Gunpowder long enough that cuirs wouldn't fight many janissaries in an initial push. Or maybe 1-draft Oromos (opposed to 2-draft rifles) makes up for the cuirs<janissaries problem, and I go for Astro instead of Rifling. Maybe janissaries are just so obnoxious that I can't attack at all, and I'm dooming myself here. But I feel very strongly that I need to do some serious damage to Cairo before it's too late, and if I'm right, anything past cavalry is definitely 'too late.'
) and good luck for world domination. :D
I can count on using 1 Golden Age, and 1 bulb (probably of Chemistry) to get there, and I'm considering a risky conversion to Serfdom in the GA, mostly for the farm commerce (worker speed for Pindicator's land is nothing to complain about, either). I could also switch from Vassalage to Bureaucracy, to up my research rate by a little more. I'm pretty confident I could get the first 3 clusters in a GA launched around T158-160, but the cannons will be trickier. Maybe I attack initially with just cuirs, oromos and galleons, and tech/bring cannons for the 2nd wave? Maybe I wait a little longer? Maybe this plan is just as unrealistic as the Rifling one? It's hard to say... 
