[PB66 Spoilers] Miguelito and Ginger split the bill

[RefSteel]

Wow. I'm global so can't comment on the map, but I've spent a fair amount of time just staring at that picture of the revealed copper location, trying to figure out what to do with it, and I agree it's just incredibly bleak. I think you're handling a bad situation well, between the scouting and the planning and everything else. And ... I'm glad nobody picked Maya - except that I guess PindiKrill in the recent game when they neighbored RandoMaya Superdeath with copper pointed right at him got eliminated so early, they didn't have to deal with the game anymore after a short time. So there's an argument for taking one look at that copper location and saying, "Forget this; I'll risk getting eliminated early without metal and pretend I don't need it somehow. Gotta take high variance plays for a chance to win!" (Not what I'd do, but I'd definitely understand!)

Good luck with the game regardless; I really appreciate your reports and your perseverence in the face of adversity! (I still regret things I should have done differently with your start position way back in PB49, and I'm really glad you seemed to enjoy that game in spite of mistakes I made!)

[Ginger()]

Wow.  I'm global so can't comment on the map, but I've spent a fair amount of time just staring at that picture of the revealed copper location, trying to figure out what to do with it, and I agree it's just incredibly bleak.  I think you're handling a bad situation well, between the scouting and the planning and everything else.  And ... I'm glad nobody picked Maya - except that I guess PindiKrill in the recent game when they neighbored RandoMaya Superdeath with copper pointed right at him got eliminated so early, they didn't have to deal with the game anymore after a short time.  So there's an argument for taking one look at that copper location and saying, "Forget this; I'll risk getting eliminated early without metal and pretend I don't need it somehow.  Gotta take high variance plays for a chance to win!"  (Not what I'd do, but I'd definitely understand!)

Good luck with the game regardless; I really appreciate your reports and your perseverence in the face of adversity!  (I still regret things I should have done differently with your start position way back in PB49, and I'm really glad you seemed to enjoy that game in spite of mistakes I made!)

I would like to think to think that the map was finalized after picks were finished and nobody secured Maya. Otherwise, it feels like a statement trying to prove a point about early game civ and map design.  

I feel bad criticizing, but I was shocked when I went to read what had happened after PB63 ended. What killed Greece was not copper placement, but an inflexible obsession with a midgame culture-bomb plan that was not adapted as more information about the map was revealed. Pindicator had quite possibly the easiest and best 2nd city copper hookup of anyone except maybe Cornflake's Egypt. 3 hammer plains hill settle, minimum distance from capital, on a hill with a river to defend it in front, and first ring river wheat as well as shareable pig with the capital, plus more food once borders popped. Somehow pushing culture another tile forward for a future border was more important than city settle time, defensibility, 6 worker turns, and F/H snowball. All the while no sentries on the Mayan border.  

To talk theory, taking high variance plays is for the endgame when your relative situation is stable and poor. Sooooo much can happen to competitors' growth and tech curves that there's no point betting the house when your winnings are subject to taxes. The diplo RNG tax, the combat RNG tax, the first-to bonus tax, all these can modify whatever gains happen. Nothing will modify death. 

The correct play is absolutely to settle for the copper. You have to eat your vegetables.
Miguelito is categorically correct and the only reason I advocated delaying it is because I have an emotional attachment to my empire's demo numbers. I likey big number go up, number shrink—me sad. Which is frankly wrong and bad civ, and my neighbors could rightfully be mad at me for unbalancing the game with sudden careless death like that. Civ as a balanced experience relies on invested defenders.

 Also, I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about it as I was mainly toying with considerations of Oracle v Pyramids and my other civ games. Plus, Miguelito and I agreed that he gets charge of early micro, so I haven't done any planning since the very first sims apart from dot map input. That’s my excuse for actively advocating a misplay in my last couple posts I guess.

[Miguelito]

Thanks Ref (and Ginger), it's really helpful to get some sympathy when the map is feeling like a slap in the face. I'd like to comment more, but aI'm rather short on time, and there are decisions to be made:



We found the food at our copper, of course pointing towards Amica
Now which of blue, yellow, or red?

• blue was my initial assumption. It has 3 LH lakes, one of which doesn't need a border pop. However that is mid term, we don't even have Fishing yet and rather want to research Masonry and Mono, and then Writing and Maths. A granary can be chopped in quickly after connecting the copper, and a green cottage be worked after growing 11 turns in. Defensively it offers the shortest walk to the core - a 1 mover unit from the capital can attack out of the city on the fourth turn already . Copper gets connected on turn 56.
  
• yellow trades the one LH lake in our culture for the PH hammer and most importantly hill defense. I suppose we wouldn't get the rice (and the peak), as Amica can just settle inbetween the food resources. A 1mover form the cap would still be able to defend after 4 turns. Since I played it ultra safe last turn with the workers, copper would get connected only on turn 58, sadly. If in the beginning of next turn we don't see a spear of Amica's with our southern scout that should be safe, at least with regards to the immediate future.
  
• red loses another LH lake but gains the rice. It has the best defense with the peak and with Amica unable to approach on a hill. It also shields the copper best. Furthermore, I think it would induce Amica to settle W of the cow, so we might get a reasonably stable border even (otoh they would probably settle a minimum distance filler S or SW from the wine). It's 5 tiles on the road from the capital and has copper on t58 as well.
  

I think I'm in favour of red. One important realization I had is that Amica very likely doesn't know of our troubles, or at least not to the full extent, as they most probably never scouted the lake (we would have seen a unit of theirs on the copper tile from t5 on). The red dot is 5 tiles as the crow flies from our cap, and 7 from theirs. In that light, it is not unreasonable to claim. Dry rice is bad but better than LH lakes that we'll get the tech for maybe between t 80 and 90. The ability to whip a bit at least should make up for the lack of first ring forests. But most of all, with a walls the city should be very difficult to threaten well into the classical era (and eventually it will be a bit less critical, once we have iron).

Thinking about it, we should probably never give Amica OB. That's not friendly, but if they never get a sense of our strategic layout, or at least not before paper, then that's probably worth it.


The next question then is how far we want to push our luck. Considering that 3/4 of our workforce are up here (the fourth worker is more or less free), it could be argued that the next city should go towards vanrober. Do we dare the pink dot? Again a pretty decent position defensively, without him being able to approach on a hill. We seal off that whole blob of land. He has not settled in that direction.
Alternatives are 1S of pink dot (doesn't claim fur, has2 food, can be approachedon a hill but still decent defense) or the dye city down south, although I'm not sure how well we can defend it, especially if weget copper connected only t 58.
I've toyed with the idea of just popping Amica's warrior and getting 10t peace (especially last turn, when it was also inhibiting a worker).

we're at least in the draw for Hinduism! It would be awesome if it fell in Nick, sadly with 2 pop vs 4 in Thomas the latter is more likely (don't know / don't want to look up how much more)

Mjmd shot up to 6 cities while everybody else is still at 3 or 4 (but Tarvac settled their fifth as I was writing). Leveraging Imp decently, but what is interesting is that he has whipped only 4 times so far. He was also sort of late to cities 2 and 3 (t35 and 41), so I guess he got 2-3 workers early and has been chopping settlers merrily since? GOod forhim if it works out (And thankfully not our problem atm), although rival worst GNP is down to 14 already.

[Ginger()]

So when I saw that photo two things popped into my head, but I see you’ve already recognized and addressed them.
Yes, red dot likely forces Amica’s cow plant westward which is good for our border. I’m not sure closed borders is a long term viable strat, but I admit being functionally split in two with the lands we need to defend is very awkward. No OB inevitably invites attack/hostility though. So I support red dot strongly

Second thing that came to mind is that if we’re up there anyways, might as well try to wall-off Vanrober. I’m not sure exactly where to put the dotmap, I’ll log in and have a think about it, but we might as well claim all the shitty land (and fur) if we’re there so soon.

[Ginger()]

Fellas, how broken is Spiritual?

[Miguelito]

'sup?

[Charriu]

Enlighten us.

[Miguelito]

I'm as ignorant as anyone

[Ginger()]

I'm as ignorant as anyone

Ah sorry, I had expected you to jump on the turn immediately as it rolled. (Not playing clock games are we?   )

We got Hinduism and on the same turn, it spread the the capital 

Instant easy +1 happy. Charismatic in shambles.

[Miguelito]

Wow yeah, that's awesome.
tbh I was at least as happy that the holy city fell in Nick: We get the stone now easily instead of having to figure out how to get a monument done and then wait for it. 
With this coming up (needing both the quarry and mines in Thomas) as welll our long distances it seems like we need one or better two new workers soon. One can come from Nick by a t59 whip, another I don't know yet... we also need to actually build axes once we connect copper. The question is if whips are necessary. But especially if we do the pink dot against van it seemsrather reckless to go without one? Which brings us to:


I replaced your signs with coloured dots. Yellow is built by both pink and teal. Honestly I think the white dot by the fur isn't viable, terrible defense especially if he founds on the wine being Cre. So I'd say white is rather a backup plan if we neglect the area for now and van presents us with faits accomplis. Pink is evidently very attractive: No hill in his direction, blocks the wine plant and E of it, we get a chokepoint defense and we get a luxury resource. The question is just whether settling there now will induce tilt, and if so, can we hold against it with our 3 chariots.
Teal is worse in most senses; in particular it could lose its first ring for a while if van settles on wine around the same time. It may salvage relations, but that's it.
Either dotmap leaves us with a foodless spices filler in the center, not much to be doneabout it but probably sustain it on two farms or something?

I would say we assess if we want to go for that pink dot. If we don't, I think it's probably better to settle dyes in the south. Shorter supply lines, we want to concentrate workers in the area, and it also has a lot of strategic value. Or Amica pig pink dot, no idea what's up with that. They had those two workers on t 52, but they haven't advanced since, at least not to where we could see them. Were they just chopping and mining ?

So vanrober pink dot, yes/no/maybe?