[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

I do have a few spare P/S, one promoted corps and two unpromoted ones that will die instantly but can add support bonuses. And then I have 3 more promoted corps on the campuses that I could also move down. It is important to block campus pillages until they get Fission but it will be much less important after that. It could be worth abandoning my campuses to at least limit the pillaging he can do in your core, since my core has almost nothing left of value in it.

I don't really think he can kill half our ships in one turn... it should take at least 5 privateer shots to take down a double-promoted caravel fleet. They are defending at 65 + 17 (promotions) + 5 GA - 2 emergency = 85 vs 50 attack privateers (with us both at +9 from WoR and the alliance). And we have not seen much change in milpower over the last few turns so it feels like he is working on something else... If he has coal ships down here he will crush us but that seems unlikely as he only spend 11 coal on upgrades the other turn, which should just be 5 battleship fleets and a single battleship (I would think). That is also the number of frigate fleets we thought he had in his offensive fleet, so I would be surprised if he upgraded any battleships back home...

[Woden]

I do have a few spare P/S, one promoted corps and two unpromoted ones that will die instantly but can add support bonuses. And then I have 3 more promoted corps on the campuses that I could also move down. It is important to block campus pillages until they get Fission but it will be much less important after that.

I think if we can stall him a bit or prevent him from running around unopposed, the better. At least give me some room to maneuver any field cannons I can get out. But, I also think you need to make sure your campuses are protected, so keep the ones near the campuses in your territory just in case he switches direction, as he will be able to reposition quicker that we can. I think if he delays pushing in my territory long enough for me to get my other field cannon south, we should be good. I think field cannons cost 660 faith now that I am not in Theocracy, so I might be able to buy one next turn but it might be the turn after. Then it will be a bit to get the next one. Luckily, other than Friggs campus, anything important is near multiple city attacks (city center/encampments). I will protect the campuses and GP with my units, especially the GP so I can get the War Department complete.

I don't really think he can kill half our ships in one turn... it should take at least 5 privateer shots to take down a double-promoted caravel fleet. They are defending at 65 + 17 (promotions) + 5 GA - 2 emergency = 85 vs 50 attack privateers (with us both at +9 from WoR and the alliance). And we have not seen much change in milpower over the last few turns so it feels like he is working on something else... If he has coal ships down here he will crush us but that seems unlikely as he only spend 11 coal on upgrades the other turn, which should just be 5 battleship fleets and a single battleship (I would think). That is also the number of frigate fleets we thought he had in his offensive fleet, so I would be surprised if he upgraded any battleships back home...

My main worry if Frigates. He should have been building them as he got the niter to do so and I haven't seen many near our core. He might have kept any new ones at home for our advance. I haven't been tracking his niter but if they were pooling it, he might have a good number of them waiting for us. If it is only privateers, even if it is 15 or so, we should be good. But add in some frigate fleets and we could see more loses. The main uncertainty here is if he goes after your ships or mine. If he goes after mine to take out the heavy hitter, it should take most of whatever he has but if he wants quantity over quality, he may go after your ships and we will see higher numbers of loses. You are probably right about not losing half our ships but we could see significant loses. I think the priority for me if he does attack will be to kill ships and see if I can go after whatever is strongest that I can 1-shot. I think Rodeo can wait a turn or 2. I think combined, our fleets should be stronger than his, especially if he has been buying Cossacks with faith. They have a slight edge on combined MP than us but it is less than 100 given my upgrades. I agree that will will probably not see coal units near Australia but we will see a large number of ships, regardless if their type.

[Woden]

Here is what we see or I assume about Russia units. I figure he has at least 10 ICFs and 8 battleships in the north (this lines up with 4 sources of coal running the extra coal card and a -2 coal shortage). We can see 1 privateer fleet and know he has/had 3 privateers near Japan's capital and 2 by old Oracle Bones. We can see 3 Cossack corps near Abugida and he has one near TMMLP and a single pillaging Illmatic. He also had the frigate in the south sea that we haven't seen in a while. Finally, there are 2 warriors in cities where are spies are located and 2 pikeman on Oracle Bones island guarding mines. In total, that accounts for 2,160 base MP. Add in +7 for each ICF and battleship for promotions and we get 2,286 MP. He currently has 4,188, which means we are missing 1,902 MP. That could be a shit-ton of privateers.

Let's suppose he has at least 4 more Cossack corps for 308 MP and let's say 294 MP at suboptimal's former capital left there because why move it. That would bring him down to 1,300 of unknow MP. That could be 12 frigate fleets and 16 privateers waiting for us, or some other composition of ships. It is probably lower because he is keeping units in all of your former cities he is holding and probably some in island cities under pressure from suboptimal. There is also a field cannon and pikeman in the south on the island with Japan's remaining cities that I am just remembering and the Cossack corps I killed my last turn. Even if we assume there is "only" 1,000 MP waiting for us, that will be a lot of ships... but I think we are about 1,170 MP plus my destroyer (in a few turns). Now that I have gone through the numbers, I feel good about Australia. It is really going to depend on the composition of his fleet but a good estimate will be about 1,000-1,300 MP in the area.

Edit: If it takes 4 privateers to kill a caravel fleet, that would be 160 MP killing a 72 MP ship, so our odds get better in an equal MP battle. But on the flip side a 72 MP ship killing a privateer at 40 MP is roughly equivalent but it also kills the 40 MP.

[ljubljana]

I would hope frigate builds would not be too much more efficient in terms of firepower for them than privateer builds. Since frigates are pricier and don't benefit from Letters of Marque, I think regardless of whether they go for frigates or privateers, they will end up with a similar amount of striking power.

Blah, maybe I was overeager in repeatedly saying we should push for Rodeo in the dark like this. I was afraid of Australian ICs + Russian subs pushing us back before we could take the city, but maybe I was too greedy. I think now that we have the city locked down, if we don't face a big counterattack this turn, I should be a bit more cautious and stay a turn's movement behind your scouting ICs. It won't help much vs privateers until the destroyers show up but it would help if they have frigates and caravels (although not sure they can have caravels since they had coal until this turn)

I agree on the rough ship numbers, yeah. I suspect his fleet in Phoenicia is a bit bigger than that as I think there were a decent number of caravel fleets that he did not have the coal to upgrade, but probably not a huge difference in terms of MP.

edit: Their active thread posting today is suggestive of a big counterattack... Could be the attack at (W)odin though.

[Woden]

I wouldn't expect caravels as it would have eaten his coal and why I didn't include any in my assumptions. Let's hope for more privateers as 10 frigate fleets would be a pretty heavy lift even if we just consider resources. I was also thinking why we pushed forward aggressively and not just wait him out but I think this is a good move too. Let see what he has and see if we can force a cession out of them in the next few turns.

The good news here is that if my assumptions are right with what he has in the north, we should be fairly equally matched with us maybe having an edge with your ships. I have 7 fleet destroyers, 3 ICFs, 3 battleship fleets, and 6 single battleships. He will have more battleship fleets but I should have more overall battleships. I don't think numbers are low for ships in the area, there maybe a few caravel fleets around but for coal ships, I don't think he has more than what I assume. I don't even know if he has a 4th coal resource or if he is running the extra coal card. He probably does have a 4th coal but if he is running the coal card, either he is not running the extra production for privateers or one of the add CS cards. Either would be good for us. I guess another option would be a larger deficit and larger penalty, which would be better for us too.

I have also noticed the increased activity in their thread. Something is brewing and we should see something on my turn.

Edit: Also just noticed that Kaiser has played. If williams482 plays his turn relatively quick (within say the next 3 or 4 hours) he was excited to get the turn and we should see some combat somewhere.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, pushing forward aggressively does at least make sure we can redline the city before subs come out, and it gives us a chance to take a shot at pillaging the TRs and the Russian coastline. If we waited 3 more turns to take the walls down with the Dreadnought one shot at a time, there would probably be subs waiting for us. Not sure why Australia never upgraded an IC...

Part of it is CMF coming back too, maybe they are just talking to each other. But I think we are seeing combat either way as what else could his fleet in Phoenicia do this turn besides go for (W)odin? And a Cossack push in that direction has been telegraphed as well and this is the turn in which we'd expect him to surge forward. The question is, how likely is it that he can take down your capital before your ships can intervene. With just 5 battleship fleets (based on his coal expenditures on the Refining turn), it will not be a one turn kill, but can he get a 2 turn kill? If not I think you will get there in time, though engaging him without taking a first strike at sea will not be easy either.

[Woden]

Yeah, pushing forward aggressively does at least make sure we can redline the city before subs come out, and it gives us a chance to take a shot at pillaging the TRs and the Russian coastline. If we waited 3 more turns to take the  walls down with the Dreadnought one shot at a time, there would probably be subs waiting for us. Not sure why Australia never upgraded an IC...

I don't think we could have bettered our position much in the next 3-5 turns, maybe have my destroyer to scout but that is about it. They, on the other hand could, with subs and somehow upgrading a ICF. It is a good time to attack. Otherwise, were we planning to wait until nukes? Fascism? They would just build more ships while we wait.

Part of it is CMF coming back too, maybe they are just talking to each other.

Part of me was hoping he would convince them they are in a losing game but I also want to fight the upcoming battle and don't know if I would accept a concession at this time.

But I think we are seeing combat either way as what else could his fleet in Phoenicia do this turn besides go for (W)odin? And a Cossack push in that direction has been telegraphed as well and this is the turn in which we'd expect him to surge forward. The question is, how likely is it that he can take down your capital before your ships can intervene. With just 5 battleship fleets (based on his coal expenditures on the Refining turn), it will not be a one turn kill, but can he get a 2 turn kill? If not I think you will get there in time, though engaging him without taking a first strike at sea will not be easy either.

(W)Odin's DS is 105 right now. His best battleship (double city attack promotions + GA) shots at 102 (80 base + 17 promotions + 5 GA). He can do what? 30-40 damage per attack? With 400 wall strength and 6 battleships, that is at least 2 turns of attacks. He won't 1-turn it but I might lose it before my ships can arrive. But that is also assume every battleship has both city attack promotions and at least one of them we see only has 1 promotion and a few of the others probably has the extra damage to ships promotion. I could also see him taking it in 3 turns if he is cautious. If he can't take it is 2 turns, he will have to decide about attacking my ships or going after the city. He won't be able to do both effectively.

[ljubljana]

I don't know if CMF is ever going to be the one to convince others to concede unless the evidence is really strong. He was the only one who wanted to play on vs TBS's 200 science Cree on turn 105 in PBEM17, and only conceded because he was a replacement player and didn't feel like he could rightfully force the others to keep going. Unfortunately, my read is that he is one of those players that really embodies the Sirian tradition of never-give-up, never-surrender, come-take-it-from-my-cold-dead-hands defiance in a hopeless-looking position, and he is not likely to inject much defeatism into their thread. I admire that about him a lot but it does not serve our interests here

They shouldn't concede anyways as they have plenty of opportunities to take a large lead again. All they have to do is win a battle on either front or get the pillage train rolling in your core and things look a lot less even.

Yeah, I think it will be a 2 or 3 turn siege, not sure which. If they take the city in 2t you will lose the War Department which is the biggest loss, but he is also pinning his ships in place and allowing you to advance. We will just have to see how much damage he does. I think he can probably take it in 2t (he should have a lot of double-promoted ships from taking and retaking the revolting free cities) but we will have to see.

One question is if you should retake free cities as you advance or steer clear of them to maintain some semblance of stealth. Not sure what the right approach is. But if you do take the cities I'd say don't bother liberating to me, if you keep them for yourself they will be much harder for Russia to retake and will be contributing their beakers/hammers/gold to the stronger team member. That is, unless you think a few hundred diplo favor is worth having a few less cities, which it could be if the game goes 15 more turns.

I need to decide on my next round of builds soon too...are they more Pike/Shot? I hate that thought passionately but they might have to be. I would probably drop Bastions if I need to bring Grand Armee back so I can keep Press Gangs + Conscription...

[Woden]

I think keeping your cities will have a negative impact on my empire simply because I am already short on amenities and close to getting -3 in my core. I also need to capture a couple of Japanese cities and any Australian cities I can. Overall, I think we leave the free cities alone for now and focus on his navy. I haven't decide yet if it will be better to fight between the cities or go around the island. Between the cities would limit flanking but also would be under attack from the city centers. Going around would open things up but is that good, IDK.

I should be close to directly north of the island city on my next turn with my leading ships. How far I push with the bait ships is still undecided. Do I go as far as the island city to let him see my ships and distract him from attacking (W)Odin further or do I press as far as I can but limiting his vision on my ships if I don't spot any of his ships? He could not push on (W)Odin this turn in anticipation of an attack. This would be good for us or does he go full on bombardment, knowing it will be a few turns before I can catch up? I sure hope he plays today and this is not going to be one of those days where it is "will he or won't he play" days.

Edit: As for your next builds, is there anything that can better your position in science or culture that can be quickly constructed. Ships would be good to help protect our shores or more P&S, but I don't know if we will need more if we can push him back.

[ljubljana]

Not sure about the best place to fight either. The city centers will hit like battleship fleets which is not an appealing prospect. But you might be able to knock off the walls at Izumrud (at very low health) to remove one of those. I kind of lean towards limiting his visibility in general by using ZoC to prevent his musicians from seeing your ships, as it is provides the only route we are going to get towards hitting him with a first strike. Going north around the two cities is a circuitous route indeed, though. Not sure what the answer is and thankfully we don't have to decide this turn. I would probably still keep your scouting ships out of his view if you can this turn just to keep him guessing, but that shouldn't restrict you too much as I highly doubt he will have much going on by Hieratic.

I don't know about science and culture for my builds, I think that ship has sailed at this point and there is not much I can feasibly get before the end of the game that would matter. Democracy and Steel are 25-30 turns away and those are the closest targets. We do need both more caravels for scouting and privateer-hunting and more P/S to stem the tide of Cossacks. Which is more urgent, I am not sure, but sadly probably the P/S as I know you have at least a few ships in the south already on privateer duty. I am also not sure turning the Cossacks away is going to be easy or even doable (!) and he seems perfectly content to keep buying one every 1.5 turns with faith, so probably I should aim to keep pace with that via P/S construction, especially at my capital which is my only source of the anti-cav promotion. I think when we see how many there are next turn it will be easier to make a decision, though.