[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Pretty fast turn from williams who probably got off work no more than 3 hours ago (I think he is in the US somewhere?) when these things take 2-ish hours to play usually. Here we go...

On the other hand my turns with a lot of fighting tend to take longer so maybe it's not such a bad sign? I think when he beat the tar out of me at (W)odin it was an all-day affair.

[Woden]

Yah, so about those Cossacks...
   

I think we can kiss finishing the War Department before switching to Totalitarianism goodbye! He will probably pillage the GP next turn. I am going to need to think about what to do. I will have to spend my faith on something this turn. Nothing new in the north. I will think about my movements and let you know if I find anything, just need to figure out how far I can get.

But for some good news?
   

Not sure what is going on here. Maybe he is not ready yet and has more units coming? Seems weird that we are left alone here, especially with how vulnerable south of here is. I guess I am not going to complain if they want use to advance. What do you think we should do here. Pillaging the lumbermill at Rodeo is good. I can hit it from either the north or south but do I take Rodeo this turn? Both will end the units turn and won't be able to be on the front line. I don't think I can pass up 300+ gold. Do I do both and then move my other ICF down to where their borders meet. Get into position to attack The College Dropout?

Edit: He also settled oil city, like I suspected he was doing.

Edit2: Also, do I just stay with Totalitarianism or do I switch to Conservation. There may still be a window to get the War Department done if we can figure out how to rid my lands of his Cossack in the next 5 or 6 turns.

[ljubljana]

Sorry, am on a Zoom call now but will respond fully later. Shame about the GP but we can deal. Do you have any strong domestic TRs available to juice Thor in case we need to swap out of Democracy? Another option if we fight Russia sooner than later is just to...delay switching into Fascism. Seems crazy now but it wouldn't be crazy if Russia got pushed back away from our shores.

Not sure about Rodeo, will need to think a bit.

[Woden]

Sorry, am on a Zoom call now but will respond fully later. Shame about the GP but we can deal. Do you have any strong domestic TRs available to juice Thor in case we need to swap out of Democracy? Another option if we fight Russia sooner than later is just to...delay switching into Fascism. Seems crazy now but it wouldn't be crazy if Russia got pushed back away from our shores.

Not sure about Rodeo, will need to think a bit.

No rush on the turn...probably look at the save for an hour before I play.

[Woden]

More information...

Russia did a bunch of pillaging this turn. Look what I found near Japan's capital...
   

3 sunk privateers...
   

I pinned the location of another south of Fort Miln if you want to attack it with your caravel. Otherwise, feel free to sweep the gulf for any more. His pillaging of my coal mine coast me full maintenance of my coal ships, I am 1 short but also delayed the destoryer I was going to chop out of Tibbet's Brook by a turn. Ended up 6 cogs short. 

Over by Australia...
   

I pinned where I can put 2 ICFs. These would be the 2 strongest. My half health ICF would take Rodeo and gain a promotion and the single promoted one will pillage the lumbermill using the tile next to Rodeo. I figure you can have some of your frigates attack The College Dropout and use the stone to close the gap with some caravels. What do you think? I could move a tile closer to The College Dropout and pillage the trader but that would be in range of the city attack and limit the tiles you can hit the city with. I don't think you can hit the city with the tile 2 NW of the city center because the tile 1 NW is a forest. 

Back home...
   

I pinned my range. I think I am going to push my battleships almost as far as they can go east and maybe have one of the tow ironclads peal off and provide some ZOC in front of some of the battleships...maybe. To start, I will probably bring the destroyer to where I pinned the "Closest Ship" last turn to see if I can see anything and move a tile or 2 more east depending on what I see. The other ironclad will follow.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, where the heck are his ships? Pretty worried that we didn't see them go for (W)oden, or do...anything really. I would definitely scout first with the destroyer and probably assume that any tile you can't defog contains an 8-movement battleship waiting to pounce. Ideally you would want a solid line of ICs/destroyers so that he is not able to hit your BS with melee ships at all, assuming you are not able to defog every tile in range of your position. You can pin positions for 2 of my ICs to fill any gaps in that line too, they have 8 movement (the last one is linking up with one from Linear A to make a fleet). You also probably want one or two tiles of separation between your IC line and the BS so his BS can't sail right up next to the line (or one tile away) and shoot yours.

I think the actual best play is to play it safe and only put ships where you are sure he can't reach you. But I'm not sure there are tiles by the ice that meet that criterion, and it might mean not using all your movement. That would be a shame, but not as much of a shame as getting first-struck. If we have no idea where his ships are, we have to assume they are coming north to try to first strike us and are lurking in the fog. I would probably scout as far as you can with destroyer + IC but treat any tile you can't defog as a battleship and not leave any ships in range (which means staying more than 10 tiles from the fog, where they could hit you by moving 7 tiles and then shooting).

Is the harbor at Rodeo finished? It would be a shame to not manage to pillage it if so. But your second-closest IC should be able to pillage the harbor and also take the city (if you can pillage and attack in the same turn which I forget if you can). And the closest one could sail around and hit the lumbermill from the south.

Not sure about advancing on The College Dropout. I would hate to squander not getting attacked this turn by walking into an attack next turn. It will probably take 3 turns to get the (200 HP) walls down at 82 defensive strength. My fear is that would go something like this: I attack, he hooks up oil, I attack, he upgrades subs, I finish off the walls, and then he hits us with subs in our face. I do not know if there is a way to pull it off... We may need to plan for a battle on our terms before we take any more Australian cities (at least in the south), as I don't think we can avoid one if we go for The College Dropout now...

I would probably try to use the other two IC to scan the area nearby for privateers so I know how far back my ships have to move to stay out of range. Then next turn you can scout while going for the campuses (or something) and my ships can get a little closer without risking disaster.

[Woden]

If you want to play it safe at Australia, what about this...
   

I take Rodeo, shift my 2 powerful ICF over where the other 2 are located and bring my destroyer around. You can fill in the tiles between them and retreat your frigates a bit. Then next turn, we will have all 4 ICFs and a destroyer available to help push south. 

Up by Cuneiform...
   

Scouted ahead with my destroyer and only came across a GA. We could send him back to Asahi and leave the destroyer alone and use the ICFs to help form a line in the north. My best guess is that he has ships filled in between Izumrud and Asahi with others E-SE of Asahi in case I attack his frontline.

Edit: harbor not finished at Rodeo and he probably isn't working on it right now.

Eidt2: i could also bring one of my berserkers that is by TMMLP over to take He Was My Brother. We will need to take those cities out if we want to eliminate Australia.

[ljubljana]

I don't know if playing it safe is the right move per se, you are right that one destroyer does not improve our position here that much. But the best map I can come up with for hitting TCD this turn is this one:



and it leaves all my frigates exposed to sniping, plus it is not even big enough to hold all 7 frigates unless I move a C out of GA range.

I don't know what our approach should be over the next 3 turns. We could:

- Hit TCD with everything and try to juuuust barely take it before he gets subs. I guess I was off by one turn because he needs to collect oil to upgrade subs, so really he can't hit me with subs until the turn after I finish off the walls (if it does take 3 turns). We could maybe do it but we would have to start right now and we would have to deal with risky maps like that one on the intervening turn. We would be especially vulnerable next turn since we can't scout Borodino for privateers and the frigates would be in range if he has some nearby.

- Pillage and scout what we can, then prepare for battle when he gets subs and try to get a good position for that. I don't think we will ever take TCD if we do this unless we can wipe the sub/privateer fleet, which seems pretty unlikely as he can just hang back and keep producing ships until we get overwhelmed since we aren't being reinforced. But it means our ships will be safe unless we wander into a first strike anyways.

Neither is very appealing tbh. Probably the only way for us to keep making gains here (other than for the next couple turns before he upgrades) is to wait for his ships to come out and kill them. Or we can scout with the destroyer, and if it finds nothing within 8 tiles of a deploy at TCD, then we can go for the city.

edit: I do not see an easy way to take the island cities if he pillages your GMC, you will have to faith-buy zerks there and/or we will have to sail our ships all the way around to the north... Bringing a zerk is still a good idea to take HWMB but I am also worried there will be more Cossacks coming in for the coal, idk...

edit: Agree about killing the GM in Phoenicia, and it's probably in the direction you want to scout anyways. But I would be very cautious about moving your ships closer than 11 tiles away from the fog. If his BS are between Mitla and Abjad, he can hit you from really far away, most of the north by the ice is in range. And if he is not attacking your capital anyways there is no immediate urgency towards moving up as fast as possible, and plenty of reason to suspect he came this way to try to first strike you.

[ljubljana]

Hang on, had one more thought about Australia. Let me draw up a map...

[Woden]

A single berserker can probably take both cities with a DS of 52. I also can bring my lone battleship once Japan is take care of in 3 or 4 turns. It doesn't have to be a fast capture but we shoudl be thinking about it.

I think we play it safe at Australia this turn. He doesn't have oil hooked up yet, so 3 turns until a sub can attack. Next turn we will have more ships to play with and can create a better defense. We go after College Dropout, even if it takes a few turns to get defenses down. We eliminate Australia and we eliminate his ability for a military alliance.