[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[Woden]

All you need to pillage traders is MP left, it doesn't have a cost, just ends your turn. At VM, I can get away since the harbor is not next to the city. The IFC would end up where it is currently sitting. I probably would use the destroyer to pillage the harbor and take the city. Then upgrade an IFC on the tile NW of the harbor. DO you have enough envoys to suzerain Valletta? You could buy ancient walls and fire on anything close to the city.

[ljubljana]

I will have 16 envoys next turn after completion of Scorched Earth which should be enough coupled with Amani and the 2 envoys already in the city. Suboptimal was at 17 last I checked. But it is unlikely there will be anything in range of the city to hit, and certainly not a ship...

I like the idea of upgrading a destroyer fleet with Australia pillages even if it means delaying the TCD push, the battle in Phoenicia is what matters most now. Not sure I'm sold on taking Buyniy yet though as it will give away how close our position is and requires exposing battleships. What if instead of taking the city + pillage, we conspicuously do not take them, since williams will then think, why would they give up a pillage and easy city capture if their fleet is close enough to get them? Leaving the city alone could be a valuable psychological tool for convincing him that our fleet is further back than it is.

[Woden]

Okay, you convinced me not to take Buyniy. I moved a few scouts up and see...
   

The ICF at Izumrud has +6 support bonus, so ships in the 2 sea tiles and 1 on Izumrud. The IFC and Caravel Fleet each have +4 support bonus, so a ship on the pearls or each have a ship on there flank. I think my ICF is going to pillage the crabs for health and then set up out side Buyniy. The one by Joe Aribo will move 2 tiles SW and the last IFC is going to upgrade next to Joe Aribo (got a notification that my alliance with China increased and remembered I can upgrade there). I think my destroyer will replace where the ICF by Joe Aribo is located in the screenshot.  Then your ships can fill in N-NW of the island. My main fleet can then set up off the aluminum at Joe Aribo. 

He is running a -5 coal deficit right now. I only see 3 sources in his empire and he is about to lose 1 next turn at Adios Hermanos.  If he only has 3 sources and running the +1 coal card, it means he has 12 incoming and 17 coal units (8 battleships, 9 ICF?). Next turn he will have 6 oil, so 6 destroyer upgrades but that will still leave him with a penalty of -3, more if he upgrades an subs. He isn't building any ships right now because anything in production will steal his resources and he doesn't have anything to build that doesn't require oil or coal. We should see production resume once he gets his upgrades.

[ljubljana]

Would you mind posting a map of your plans for our ships before we commit to them?

Whatever we do, the most important thing is to keep all of the main body of our ships 4 tiles away from the closest place that he can move those caravels and ICs. If we get scouted he will throw everything he has at us and get a huge first strike. But if we can pull this off and make him think we only have scout ships in the area we just might pull of a coup here. Even if he upgrades on his turn he will still be facing a big-time coal penalty (which I think will not go away until the turn after he upgrades) and may not be able to do full damage to us.

Those plans for your scouts sound good though. One slight adjustment might be to use the destroyer to ZoC-block the channel between Asahi and Izumrud so he can't scout us instead of sending it east since my ICs look one tile short of being able to get the best position there. But otherwise I think that sounds good.

[ljubljana]

Also, here is a map of my understanding of where you are saying your ships will go:



Does that look right to you? If so, yellow Xs are where he can move ICs/caravels, and anything on the red line or behind should be safe. Lmk if you want to switch the destroyer to 1 SE of the purple IC and I will redo this map. That switch does have a downside as it means I can't plug the hole on the east with a caravel to block privateers coming that way, but it would let us get slightly closer. Up to you.

[Woden]

I am thinking something like this...
   

Your ships are the hollow hexagons. The only ship of mine that stays where he is currently located in the ICF near Buyniy. He will pillage the crabs to heal and then move back. This position will allow him to hit the southern flank but no reach the main fleet. If he goes for the northern flank, there is tougher ships and more ZOC to contend with, absorbing more attacks.

Edit: Battleships and more destroyers will be by the trader and GA, just too lazy to pin.

Edit2: This would dare him to attack but direct his attack to the south.

[ljubljana]

Ok, let me overlay that with a map of where his scouts can go given this positioning...



He can sneak a caravel between your two frontline destroyers at Joe Aribo and scout the tip of the main fleet, so we should either move that back or upgrade to the destroyer on the turtle 1 SE of your pin instead (maybe a good idea anyways for the defense boost). The back IC fleet has only 7 movement and can't reach that far, but what you could do is upgrade the wounded IC on the turtle instead and have the IC in the back go where it was planning to go.

Also, be warned that my caravels have only 7 movement and can't quite reach those pins unfortunately

We might also want to keep 2 of my 3 IC (the ones not needed for ZoC-blocking) back in the safe zone to sell that our front line is just scouting, but IDK.

[Woden]

The full strength ICF by the artist can make it to the turtles and upgrade. That might even sell that our fleet is south because we would want strength at our other flank.

[ljubljana]

Wait, it can? I thought it only has 7 movement because it's starting its turn on an ocean tile... If it can upgrade on the turtles that sounds great to me!

[ljubljana]

Might be nice if you could please post a final shot of your positions before passing the turn just for flight-check purposes in case we spot anything last-minute (since this is the Big Turn). Nbd if you can't though