[Mjmd #56 no players] One ring to find them

[Mjmd]

Ok updated Micro. I was able to shave 3 turns off of 4 corners. Technically I can shave 3 turns off of 'silver fish', but I might settle for 2 turns off and settle T66 if it means I don't have put the chop into a galley and instead can put into Antium granary. That is micro for a different day as I've had enough today lol.  I'm pretty happy with everything through T57. EXCEPT that with updated sailing timing I am now thinking of doing a worker out of Cumae instead of whipping the axe (I can save it in queue for emergency whip). I would then whip out an axe in Neapolis instead which would only be 1 turn behind where the other axe would have been. Will probably decide based on what vanrober is doing the next two turns. So might wait to play until after him T53 as it is a fairly major decision on if whip an axe or grow to whip a worker (which I would prefer).

T52 Song goes to improve dry cow, Una goes to chop forest 1S of Cumae
T53 start settler in Antium, whip axe in Cumae,
T54 WHIP ANTIUM!!! axe goes north, Poem roads Ivory, Capital takes dry rice to perfectly grow to 4,
T55 start settler in capital, dan goes to road 4 corners beaver, Antium takes back dry rice
T56 Whip capital, Song goes to road 2nd dry cow (not one its at), poem puts 1 turn into road 1W of Antium, Una goes W to help improve dry corn**. Check to make cure Cumae is working grassland forest and not  hill
T57 capital starts galley; poem goes to chop 1SW of Antium, una 1t road on dry corn
T58 settle both cities. Workers start improving respective corns; warrior needs to go back to cumae for happy.
T60 make sure chop goes into galley, cap works ivory; perfectly finish galley, road Arretium corn; start worker in Neapolis if haven't whipped for military
T61 capital starts settler, poem starts cottage, start worker in cumae?, whip worker in neapolis; una starts improving beaver?
T62 whip capital settler, song goes to improve 2nd plains cow, whip cumae worker,
T63 start worker in Antium (could start T62)
T65 settle silver fish. Could settle T66 if settler comes from Antium at 4 pop.

[Lewwyn]

I know most people send messages when they declare war 

Is this a thing? I take no diplo pretty seriously and never send messages.

[Charriu]

Well, this is one thing that has changed in the past 20 PBs I guess. Yes, Mjmd is right, that a lot of people do send those notices. For the most part it's only a friendly reminder like:

"Hi, just wanted to tell you I declared war and take the first/second turn"

I think it's just a nice thing and helps avoiding any misunderstandings regarding turn order or entering the turn, when you are not supposed to.

[Mjmd]

All the bad news. Vanrober settled the most obvious city for horse. Now to note he has all between his capital and there roaded assuming the 2 pop whip T53 was a settler. I'm going to move my warrior on the hill next turn to check what is in there. The movement signs in that area are actually from last turn. It was actually why I decided to whip the axe. I figured he might be going there, but we will see what we see. I had the option to finish a spear in 2 turns if I put a chop into it, but going to chop out a worker. This is actually a deviation from my micro posted, but really wanted another worker and since I wasn't whipping one out there I figured I would chop it out. That worker can then chop out the granary and start cottaging.



In other news Civac has jumped from 4 to 6 cities this turn. 4 turns before I am going to. Between Van blocking my stone site and Civac also getting off to a fast start, my HG aspirations aren't looking great. I mean the backup plan of transform my forests in praets isn't nothing, but I was kind of hoping. I have a scout coming out of Antium that will go see what is going on on Cairo Civac borders. 

BTW Van played some of his turn and logged off without ending. Very frustrating x2. Hoping I can move first next turn; Van usually isn't as on top of it. Plus his and ruff war is basically the reason game is taking so long atm.

[Cornflakes]

BTW Van played some of his turn and logged off without ending. Very frustrating x2. Hoping I can move first next turn; Van usually isn't as on top of it. Plus his and ruff war is basically the reason game is taking so long atm.

If you are planning to declare war, best practice is to join an ongoing war in the same side of the turn split if possible (so if attacking Van, join in the 2nd half with Ruff who is already at war). 3-way splits are bad for turn pace.

[Mjmd]

SD literally just told me it is ok for 3 way turn splits. I'm usually on top of playing my turns. Especially early where I have the micro already done. I also don't plan on staying at war, but that is only 50% my decision. I'll see when turn rolls.

Anyways second question. Is this the right Vodka link? I've never actually used before.
https://civ.zulan.net/vodka/

I wanted to know what the odds were for 1 axe and 2 warriors to take an archer in a hill city. First I did just straight combat I axe vs prot archer in a hill city with full fortify and it returned:
avg. attacker victory: 58
Now in world builder I'm showing 15% chance.

I ran a few iterations with all 3 attackers in world builder and if it is defended by an archer I will probably not attack anyways. Which seems likely given his power.

[Charriu]

Of course it is absolutely ok to do a 3-turn split. I think what Rusten wanted to say is to consider joining the war without a 3-turn split, if that isn't a problem for you.

[Mjmd]

He had an archer so no go. Only 5% fortify so was tempted, but I never did get an answer on the combat simulator so meh. I imagine it was well under 30%.

[Mjmd]

Rather than a big edit. Here is a couple other things.

AT got eaten by Noble /sigh. That actually seems super unlikely this late. It is too late for a rush to have worked unless he was just blindsided. The only thing I know about ATs / El Grillos game is that his scout made it all the way to me before death. Maybe should have been scouting for enemy units. This is really bad. I mean I think I'll end up with 1.5 players land, but Noble might get full x2. I wasn't that worried when stonehenge fell because I figured AT could hole up and be annoying, but now bad bad bad.

I made a couple mistakes in hindsight myself.
1) I should have had my 2nd scout out earlier. Popping next turn and headed south, but Civac may have blocked a path south off.
2) In my sim I totally forgot the forest on the 4 corners site, which will push that settle back to turn T59. I would have gone to chop it instead of cottaging if I had realized. For some reason kept glazing over it.

[Miguelito]

I'm not keeping up.
So we're from hope that vanrober forgets that we exist to burn his cities? Alright then, Rome has always been at war with Celtia, I hate them, make them pay!
fwiw with this:


(well 1000 tests rather than 100) I get ~64% odds. Doesn't seem advisable.


If it helps, Noble will likely not get all of AT's territory if he has 1 or 2 competent neighbours down there (and I think one of those could be civac whom I'd count as such?). One of the reasons why ancient wars are often unprofitable, it's hard to keep the spoils to yourself.