[90 Spoilers] Saxony's splendour and Miguelusten's glory

[Amicalola]

So at this point I think we're not really competing for the win here. That's ok, but what are our goals then?

1. not dying - of course that's always the goal, but it has to be taken extra considering the threats north and south.
   
2. expand anyways - I think it has to be through Ari
   
3. get a monk economy running and enjoy
   

I am very guilty of doing this short-term, but I wanted to caution against it as an attitude long-term. You'd be surprised what a decent run of luck and opportunistic plays can make of a mediocre start.   Besides, neighbours in my experience play as big a role as opening outcomes when it comes to huge games like this.

(of course, you should do what is fun for you. But in your case, I get the sense that winning is fun, and I think that seems far from impossible from this position. You just might be used to the luxury of already being a frontrunner at this point of the game )

[Miguelito]

I mean you might just have to build enough axes to force him off. If nothing else you could then get a peace treaty which would allow you to pasture the horse. I don't think letting him consolidate there is wise.

Interesting suggestion. What would the appropriate number be, 8 maybe? Might even be worth building a barracks . I'm not kidding, I'll consider this. It should be before he gets culture defense, so within the next 10 turns. But I don't see the peace treaty. Either I get his fortified super axes on the hill city down or the wave just breaks, either way I don't see a reason for peace.

I am very guilty of doing this short-term, but I wanted to caution against it as an attitude long-term. You'd be surprised what a decent run of luck and opportunistic plays can make of a mediocre start.   Besides, neighbours in my experience play as big a role as opening outcomes when it comes to huge games like this.

(of course, you should do what is fun for you. But in your case, I get the sense that winning is fun, and I think that seems far from impossible from this position. You just might be used to the luxury of already being a frontrunner at this point of the game )

But my whole point is that the neighbours are as terrible as they come. I don't even think the start was played mediocre considering what we've had to work with. I'm keeping records of whips, and we are above average despite being among the last starters.
As I wrote, the one plausible path I see is to outtech Ari and try something along those lines, but it still seems unlikely.
I need to remark though that I had a lot of fun losing both PB49 and PBEM64, both being pretty hopeless rather early into the game already.

[Miguelito]

I totally wasn't camping PBspy but anyways logged in a minute after turn roll. Moved the new axe south and even if Plemo for some weird reason should attack right away we're safe there for the moment.

Accidental genius micro move:


Meißen went unhappy when I moved the axe out. The citizen could work the plains forest, but since he won't eat while he's redfaced and we're building the worker we gain one food at the expense of 2h, which for any whip below 7->5 is still a profit. And let me tell you, we're not looking to grow this city to size 7 in the next 30 turns (I guess it can, eventually, on a lighthouse? hence why I didn't write 100).

Shade (Brennus) drew first blood on Flunky (Cyrus) . I think he razed a size 3 city (although it's weird - Flunky lost 6 points which should be 3 pop, but shade gained and then lost only 2 - shouldn't it be 4?).
Anyways, gotta commend him. He has just founded his 5th city while Flunky had had 6 for 9 turns. An example to look up to

[Miguelito]

We will find out how willing Ari is to let us have our horse:


I checked that there is not half a road on the grassland NW of the horse, so no nasty surprises for the moment. End of this turn our borders pop and I think by t79 or 80 his first ring tiles should flip. At which point he'd need to actively invade to keep us from pasturing, also giving up his fortfication bonus.
The terrace whip is very ugly at 12/22 food while working a fish; at least it's the ideal case for the avoid growth maneuver.

Elsewhere Plemo plays nice and pulled back his axe:


We've also surpassed him in power (placed 13th in the demos now, so Plemo unsurprisingly is also playing a low power gambit - but we don't have the juice in us to call him on anything atm). Going to whip the spear anyways .

[Miguelito]

We will find out how willing Ari is to let us have our horse:

Not very willing, it seems.


Well at least he's given up his fortification bonus. Now, if naufragar kindly connected his horse and donated it to us ...  
Anyways, that tile that he's on will be ours within 2 turns I believe, and then he'll have to actually declare to stop us from pasturing. Do I want that? Maybe? Nothing we can do about it at that point anyways. Meanwhile I'll pull back the worker. If we're really lucky he'll even pasture the cow first, but I think he's aware of what's happening. Anyways, we should have enough reinforcements to withstand those two axes (although combat luck can of course be very swingy for these early axe exchange).

[Miguelito]

This is a trap.


He preroaded last turn, and wants me to keep the worker in place so he can capture, the meanie  .
So all signs are on hostility, but I still am burning through the upgrade gold to get maths in 3 turns. Costs are ever increasing, and my consolation is just that for the nonfin guys with more cities it must be all the more awful. Down south in Leipzig I'm moving to get the lighthouse up, in order to finally and truly dig into that 3c coast.

[Mjmd]

I'm surprised he hasn't built a monument. Possible that is what that worker is up to with a chop.

[Miguelito]

Oh he has, t76 as the sign says , chopping E of cow with 2 workers no less. That's why he still has the first ring as well, although with 3 culture per turn from Chemnitz we're going to get it anyway for a couple turns.
My hopes of getting him with chariots are very faint, and I really need to take care not to lose Chemnitz against an axe push of his. At least with vision and culture defense it's getting easier. Maybe I should just get a lighthouse there and forget about working land tiles until machinery.

[Hitru]

It's a horrible sight to see two ancient cities full of axes staring at each other. Those wasted hammers that could have been granaries, settlers, workers.

Not to say you have played it wrong here, I don't know enough about the gane to say that.

[Miguelito]

It's not as bad as you have it. He currently has 2 (elite promoted) axes there, we have two XPless ones which however get odds with fortify, hill bonus and now culture defense. I have another axe whippable in the pipeline, and the Quechua could be upgraded in an emergency, as long as we have enough gold lying around. Now if he were to appear with 3 or 4 more axes from the fogs things would get hairy, but honestly I expect him to be so broke that he doesn't even want a new city. Or for the raze alone, to have us off the landmass? Dunno.

Anyways, offensively I don't think anything's possible before crossbows. He will get a spear eventually. I will try anyways to connect the horse while we have culture control, so he would have to declare. And otherwise it's going to be a great fishing village.

The one way I can see a chariot surprise working would be by trading for horse without him noticing, but we only can trade resources with naufragar, who has not connected it or is already trading for it (unlikely). Weirdly, we have a trade route with a single city of Empirate's, presumably the one he founded on our shared coast SE of Leipzig, but we can't trade resources - so the city isn't connected to his main network it seems?

Did I misplay at Chemnitz? Ideally of course I'd have at least razed the barb city, but that would just have been possible maybe with two one pop axe whips on the home island or some such. As it was, we had a single unpromoted axe facing first one and then two of his promoted ones, which would have had to take on the barb city and cover our own, so obviously no.