Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Cyneheard]

Looking at the anti-Sandover arguments, you've convinced me. I was starting to get a little suspicious of him already, something was off about his posts. Let's go for the plausible wolf, over the person randomly likely to be one.

[Color="Red"][strike]Dantski[/strike]

Sandover[/Color]

My priorities, of the three current targets:
1) Lynch Sandover
2) Don't lynch Rowain

[Serdoa]

Kind of interesting development. Roland your posts are really interesting but why are you making them so long? You have so many filler sentences in there. Might be you only want to sound it better - I cannot tell, I am sorry, I am not very good in English. But I don't see how it helps us villagers if we confuse ourselves with drawn-out postings instead being direct and to the point. For example:

Everything else he said in that post, save for one thing, was just noise to cover up his true motives. Well-played, I must admit, but the whole thing just didn't sit well with me. It was like a bit of bad food - it just sat in my gut, twisting it, gnawing at me, but not enough to make me realize why. That last part, though, continuing to hammer Haphazard, without any vindication, and indeed going so far as to say his suspect list mirrored the exact opposite of Hap's (I wasn't aware Hap had 3 suspects!), just added onto that.

Um. Even after reading it for 4 times now, I don't get what you want to say with that. Is Sandover to be suspected because he disagrees with Haphazard? And why is Haphazard to be trusted more at this time or saying it differently: Why does it make Sandover a suspect if he disagrees with him? I know you presented more small indications but they were as hard for me to understand as this one.

I am really sure you do want to help us, but at least I am more confused then anything.

The same goes for this part

I do not expect, in the slightest, that he or anyone else will truly challenge me, and try to swing a lynch vote for me. I do expect someone, very subtly, to try and help him out, casting doubt upon me, or at least attempting to build up a credible defense.

Do I understand this wrong? For me it sounds like "everyone who does not fully agree with me is suspicious". If I do understand right, I don't think this is the right way. We will only win if we can openly discuss everything and doubt everyone. And especially in your case I was rather disappointed reading that as you ask in every post to think about everything we read. Thinking about something has to mean doubting it's informational value in my opinion. Maybe you could clarify that? If possible in a short post. I am sorry it is not meant to be disrepectful of the work you put into these posts - I am simply not getting it. I probably wouldn't speak about it - it did cost me some overcoming to admit that - but I would rather not lose only because I don't get what people say. I do that in my PBEMs already.

[Rowain]

Hercule Poirot used to say that talking will reveal the true nature of people. So Meiz has it quite right if he tries to get our silent community to speak up. Nevertheless I'm not willing to hang one on the first day just because he doesn't talk much. But please those that stayed mostly silent give us your opinions. We need different viewpoints else we risk getting tunnelvision and acting like zakalwe.

About the seer screening: AFAIK the seer is the only one who really decides whom he screens so proposing someone to get screened is just a suggestion and not a requirement. If you disagree make your arguments and the seer will decide whom he screens.

But there is no way that asking that someone gets screened makes one a wolf. OTOH beeing decidedly against a screening of a certain person is a good indication of wolfish fear.

So for me Lewwyn and sandover are the most suspicious. So my vote will go to one of those 2. As the current consens seems to be sandover my vote goes to sandover.

[Irgy]

I agree with the logic behind MJW for mayor, for all that it makes me uncomfortable at the same time.

As for the voting, personally I think that all this reading a wealth of stuff into a few comments is next to useless. It's generally not accurate beyond random chance, and all it really does is just discourage anyone from saying what they think and stating their opinions, for fear of accusatory misinterpretation. The more you post the more material you give to the paranoid, and no-one, villager or wolf, wants to get themselves voted off. So I'm for voting for quiet people to encourage an air of conversation and keeping the game lively, at least until there's some good evidence. So keep up the good work with all that text, but I'm sticking to my current vote for now.

I'm more of a rationalist though not a people-person, those who trust their psychology skills are welcome to take a different approach.

I'd happily switch to Sareln instead, since they've only made one joke-vote post (on me too, but it was a fair cop so I don't care about that) while Dantski's at least said something, but I'd also rather my vote count. If I wake up before the deadline and see the wagon has moved I'll switch though.

Goodnight, see you all at the chopping block.

[Meiz]

About the seer screening: AFAIK the seer is the only one who really decides whom he screens so proposing someone to get screened is just a suggestion and not a requirement. If you disagree make your arguments and the seer will decide whom he screens.

But there is no way that asking that someone gets screened makes one a wolf. OTOH beeing decidedly against a screening of a certain person is a good indication of wolfish fear.

Yep, obviously the Seer makes his own judgement. At least the scrye suggestions will make people talk. Same goes for the votes. Sareln has visited the forums, but hasn't actually contributed at all. That seems suspicious to me.

[Sandover]

So Sandover is getting himself dogpiled again? How typical.

[uberfish]

@mayor candidates:

I still support Sunrise because I think he can be relied on to post logical reasons for his decisions, and his last post indicated an intention of taking the job seriously. He doesn't post frequently but that's not really a problem

Based on his behaviour so far, I don't trust MJW's judgement as mayor. I don't think it's necessary to have a protected mayor at this stage anyway - if the mayor gets killed by werewolves we can just replace him the next day, with more information on the new candidates, which leads me to:


@MJW:

If you're the baner please PROTECT YOURSELF most of the time like you said you were going to, and don't try to play bluffing games with the wolves.


Now the interesting part, after the latest flips prompted by Roland's wall of text there was some suspicion of Meiz.

So I looked through Meiz's posts including his latest one and he's certainly been a follower rather than a leader, English not being his first language may contribute to this. I don't find anything that really stands out in isolation as wolfish though because a villager could be playing as a follower too. Placing early votes on MJW wasn't really suspicious as wolves couldn't possibly know he would claim with 3 votes on him (unless MJW is a wolf and the entire thing was a ploy, but that seems silly.)

So who started accusing Meiz? Lewwyn and Sandover... who've both taken the position that MJW should absolutely not be scanned and that Rowain and Meiz are wolves because they disagree with the argument. After the bandwagon against Rowain had already started to break up, Lewwyn switches to Sandover (while still saying that Meiz is suspicious) while Sandover switches to Meiz... both being careful to shift some of the responsibility for the switch onto Roland.

We still have 7 hours for people to flip votes around, and I think we should lynch one of these two. I think it's worth keeping Lewwyn as an option for now.

[luddite]

I've spent a long time now reading through this thread, especially Roland's novels. As far as I can tell, his logic is sound. If someone sees any major faults in his reasoning, they should say so, but I'm inclined to trust him because I think it's much easier to make a long and complicated argument like that by telling the truth, rather than lying. My earlier vote for Dantski was just a placeholder to encourage some discussion. I'm not completely convinced that Sandover is a wolf, but it's the best guess that we have so far.

[strike]Dantski[/strike] Sandover

I think it is best if MJW is not the mayor, at least not at the beginning. Separation of powers ! Selrahc seems like a much better candidate.

[Lewwyn]

That's fair Uber. You make a good point about the switch. I would like to point out something about Sandover's defense and switch however.

I actually thought it was a pretty good defense when I first read it. Calm and logical, but curiously slightly ambivalent. And he ended by possibly starting the wagon on Meiz. But all of it added up to me as more convincing evidence for a wolf after I thought on it for a while. He was carefully still throwing a bit of dissension, and the Meiz vote was, I believe a calculated ploy to get me to change again. At the time that he posted the votes had only just started to build on him, mine being one of the most recent. If I change to Meiz with Sandover, maybe that stops the bleeding. It would at least reduce the votes on him. Afterall, at that point thats all he really needed. A couple votes off of him to keep Dantski ahead in the voting tally.

It was a nice play for my sympathies, but I'm actually more convinced of him now than I was.

As for my own defense. I accuse Meiz, but I don't vote for him, there are after all 6 wolves, I can have multiple suspects. As for the scanning of MJW... let me make a Civ analogy to explain how I feel about that. Scanning MJW instead of an unknown is akin to building a road to you second city before farming the corn tile. Its all bout getting ahead of the opponent by realizing whats more valuable. In the end, its the seer's decision, I have no control over it.



Mayor vote... I ... MJW is not my first choice, but then no one is my first choice based on how everyone is unknown... except him. If my argument is that unknowns should be scanned in order to expand knowledge and build advantage, then it goes to reasoning that the Mayor should be a known quantity to take advantage of what we do know. A jumpy Baner... I just can't yet. Probably won't vote for the Mayor right now.

[Dantski]

umm.... I am not overly busy caring for my father, I really have no idea how that myth started, obviously sympathy shouldn't play a part in peoples decision making anyway.

Thanks for clearing up the mayor role, Roland also PM'ed me to explain it (and to encourage me to post!). I really didn't have any preferences before, but at the risk to Roland of associating myself to closely to him I will choose to vote for Roland as mayor based off his exceptional walls of text (got the beating of zakalwe there) and his useful analytical skills.

Regarding the lynching, I think Sandover is just being his natural self, same as Cull + me were quiet in WW1. Going after the quiet people isn't neccesarily a bad idea, if I'd had more experience of this going into WW1 I would've certainly tried to lynch Cull early on, but anyway back onto this game.

So I'm going to avoid voting for the active posters myself unless there's a pressing reason to get rid of them.

So I noticed scooter has been regularly posting 1 liners that aren't contributing much (one of his posts in simply quoting someone else!). He made a longer posts about MJW being a wolf taking a hit for the team as it were by drawing out the real baner but I couldn't disagree with his post more.

Fast forward to this game. What if a wolf claimed to be the baner (or any role really), with the idea that it would cause the true baner to lead the rally cry that he was a fake. Sure it might mean they lose a wolf to a lynching, but if it draws out the true baner, it'd be a great trade right? Losing the baner early would be really really bad for us, possibly worse than the seer, because the wolves could take out whomever they want every night, meaning the special role villagers couldn't come out publicly and be protected

MJW has made the claim and made himself the #1 target immediately, I really don't agree with not scrying him ASAP. If he's the real baner its the start of a trusted network of villagers, if he's a wolf then he'll need the seer dead pretty damn soon if it's going to pay off. So yeah I don't agree with scooter or others who argue otherwise on this.

But then while looking back at the thread I noticed uberfish's short posts too, especially this gem

At this point in the day I think the content of people's posts carries more significance

I agree with this, then uber was kind enough to post right as I was posting myself.

@MJW:

If you're the baner please PROTECT YOURSELF most of the time like you said you were going to, and don't try to play bluffing games with the wolves

I am against giving the baner advice of any sort especially if the person giving the advice is hardly a trusted villager.

So after those 2 pieces quoted I'm starting to have my doubts over uber...

Lewwyn and Sandover... who've both taken the position that MJW should absolutely not be scanned and that Rowain and Meiz are wolves because they disagree with the argument

Then he posts this which I can fully understand since I've made my feelings over MJW clear, suddenly I'm thinking uber is being helpful and not wolflike. Do you see why I don't post much? Being able to reason everyones arguments both ways can really screw with decision making.

So who the heck do I vote for? I don't have any strong feelings or reasons one way or the other and there's a decent chance I'll be picking on a villager.

Sareln, so far I don't recall reading much from him and I agree with most of what Meiz posted only Serdoa has replied recently so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.