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Poll: Who do you think will Win WW3?
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Team Village
12.90%
4 12.90%
Team Wolf
48.39%
15 48.39%
Team Lurker
38.71%
12 38.71%
Total 31 vote(s) 100%
* You voted for this item. [Show Results]

 
[SPOILERS] Werewolf 3 Lurker Thread

I posted this in the game thread, probably should've put it here.

For those that want to know:

I really am super busy and probably couldn’t have played this much differently if I was a villager.

I really did go snowboarding and forget my charger.

I really did accidentally crosspost with SareIn.

I really did struggle to keep up with the thread until the end, but I would sign out so I could lurk if I had time.

I did avoid updating my PBEM thread and signing in while reading the Pitboss stuff to avoid meta suspicion. I also asked some PBEM11 players to avoid posting anything about chats we had in their spoiler threads on days when I was in office.

But . . . I wasn’t drunk. I said before I posted to the other wolves that I was going to pull a gambit that would either get me insta-lynched or take me to the end.

I supported Cull being mod-killed and tried to convince Bruindane to stick around, but I still don’t know why he quit. I don’t support players being replaced in WW games, so I was fine with Bruindane being mod-killed too. Please people, if you sign up for these things, have the decency to finish it out. I don't want to be a dick, but I thought backing out was very disrespectful to the other players.

For the most part we didn’t coordinate too much on votes. We just tried to play and vote like we were villagers and hope that worked, even straight up to this last day.

Killing Bob was mostly luck. We all thought he would be a very good villager and was behaving slightly oddly, so we went that way.

We never set out to kill WW2 wolves, or Selrahc voters. Just a weird confluence.

I had some combo of: Roland, novice, Lewwyn, and Sandover as the masons, but never the right combo.

We really thought Irgy was the baner and Lewwyn was a power-role.

Mardoc, this is why you got killed:

Quote: This is my Mardoc manifesto. It isn't 100%, but I do think he is the baner. I think Mardoc has pretended to be worse than he is to mask his baner role. Also, make sure you are signed out while clicking on the post links.

Mardoc's post #1, where he just happens to pull out the quote from Bob about revealing power roles: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...tcount=104

Fear of being night-killed Night 1: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...tcount=309

Feeling slightly apologetic about not protecting Bob?: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...tcount=436

This is the famous Mardoc 5-wolf theory post, which also discusses the baner fishing, and more importantly, seems generally panicked about being targeted, which would make sense if he was the baner after we got the seer the night before (the post is titled "Last Will & Testament"): http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...tcount=480

Mardoc disappears during PB day, and stays gone most of the night, before worrying about being night-killed: "I'll be around for today, assuming I survived the night."

Mardoc online to post right after night-kill of Sandover.

Believes novice to be innocent, over a week before we kill him: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1276

Novice discussion: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1294

Novice discussion: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1296

Mardoc post during the MNG/F&I day: "It seems the best way to do that is to explain to us your thinking on suspects and innocents; even if you turn out to be horribly wrong like me, at least you'll help us to see how you think. And who knows, maybe you know more than you think you do and you'll point out something that leads to us catching a wolf. Maybe a good place to start is your opinions on the people I think are innocent - novice, Lewwyn, Roland. Am I right, or fooling myself again?"

Post discussing Ichabod and Mardoc the day before MNG dies: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1384

Mardoc, directly addressing Ichabod: "Ichabod, don't forget that non-voters are modkilled."

Defending Ichabod the day before MNG dies and Irgy gets night-killed: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1439

Questioning novice as wolf theory: "I'm pretty sure the novice theory is that he's a wolf aiming for deep cover, only a wolf could have voted as perfectly as he did days 1-3 (obviously day 4 doesn't count since the theory was brought up before he voted), and that Lewwyn's Day 1 vote change was designed to allow novice a more perfect voting record, so he's a wolf too. In fact, if Lewwyn's a wolf, then novice must also be one, because they wanted to hide that novice switched from one villager to another. But...I don't particularly believe that theory. It just requires too much coordination. It's really the core of my 5 wolves theory - I got Cull and PB and Meiz added as logical consequences if Lewwyn and novice were coordinating, and we already know 2 of those were plain old villagers."

Post in support of revealing masons/fool, which shows a much greater understanding than he has implied he has of the game: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1558

Post about baner before Irgy kill: "What the Baner can do is give a day where a wolf dies and no villager dies, or only one villager dies. Those improve the odds."

Post immediately before SareIn gave the results of the Irgy night-kill, discussing baner's role (was Mardoc online to see if his save worked?): http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1563

Long post disputing scooter's pointing the finger at Ichabod during the day session before Ichabod was night saved: http://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...count=1578

Mardoc went completely silent on March 26th (day we lynched F&I and the entire night that Ichabod was saved).

Post after the baner save: "Excellent! We finally know somebody to be innocent!"

A little after the baner save: "As an aside - Meiz, his name is Ichabod. No L."

Later on that day, perhaps why he didn't protect novice: "I was debating between two theories and didn't have any good idea how to check them. The first was that novice, Meiz, and Zakalwe were working together as wolves, and that my 5 wolves theory had a core that wasn't totally worthless. The other theory was that they're right about everything but me and I should follow along."

A baner slip, after Ichabod was saved?: "I'm down to hoping that I can at least keep the villagers I know to be innocent alive, which is me and Ichabod. Pretty soon it seems my goal will have to be to cheer from the sidelines and hope you kill a wolf before the wolf kills you."

Supporting reveal plan: "I think that's why I supported the mason reveal plan, so I could feel less stupid. At the moment, though, I'm thinking we probably do have a wolf, so they can wait another day. Irgy was right that the reveal gets more valuable every day."

After novice kill: "I guess there was nothing to fear from novice after all."

None of that is definite, but it certainly appears that Mardoc trusted Ichabod and perhaps stopped trusting novice around the time of those two night kills.

I vote to block & kill Mardoc, although I await Zak's Serdoa breakdown and scooter's Meiz breakdown.

GES

The turning point in the game was when Roland accidentally broke that tie that would let novice kill scooter. If we lost the void-wolf, I think the village wins. I wasn't around to protect scooter, so he would've died.

If and when I play again, I fear I will be an insta-lynch, because if I do find the time to be helpful, it will be a wolf ploy, and if I don't have any time, then I will be playing the same wolf game again. smile
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Gold Ergo Sum Wrote:The turning point in the game was when Roland accidentally broke that tie that would let novice kill scooter. If we lost the void-wolf, I think the village wins. I wasn't around to protect scooter, so he would've died.

Yes, definitely a pivotal point in the game. Two wolves on the block.

Sareln Wrote:End of Day 5

Lynch:
5v: fire&ice ( zakalwe, Jkaen, Gold Ergo Sum, Meiz, Roland)
4v: scooter ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Serdoa, novice )
3v: zakalwe ( scooter, Mardoc, Ichabod )
Not Voting:
Bruindane, fire&ice
  1. novice votes Rowain
  2. Roland votes zakalwe
  3. scooter votes zakalwe
  4. Rowain votes Roland
  5. Mardoc votes zakalwe
  6. Serdoa votes Roland
  7. Meiz votes scooter
  8. novice switches to scooter
  9. Serdoa switches to Meiz
  10. Serdoa switches to fire&ice
  11. zakalwe votes fire&ice
  12. Lewwyn votes Zakalwe
  13. Lewwyn switches to novice
  14. Jkaen votes fire & ice
  15. Rowain switches to scooter
  16. Ichabod votes Zakalwe
  17. Gold Ergo Sum votes fire&ice
  18. Meiz switches to fire&ice
  19. Meiz switches to Rowain
  20. novice switches Rowain
  21. Meiz switches to fire & ice
  22. Rowain switches to novice
  23. novice switches to zakalwe
  24. Lewwyn switches to fire & ice
  25. Serdoa switches to zakalwe
  26. novice switches to scooter
  27. Rowain switches to scooter
  28. Lewwyn switches to scooter
  29. Serdoa mswitches to scooter
  30. novice switches to f&i
  31. novice switches to scooter
  32. Roland switches to f&i
I have to run.
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Going through the thread right now... I'll compile a few comments. First, from this post:

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=15

The other person in the chat with Sareln was me. We could not really come to an agreement that day on who to kill... There were several ideas floating (we guessed Sandover = mason so we considered that pretty strongly), but nearly all of us had Bob in our top 2 for reasons listed in that short chat, so Bob was chosen. Some people guessed that it was because of what Bob said regarding the seer strategy, but that really had almost nothing to do with our choice, honestly. It was more his behavior and our rough assumption that he'd be a strong villager, even if he wasn't a power role.

-------------------

A question was asked as to why Sandover was killed. Selrahc answered by saying:

Selrahc Wrote:We were thinking since Day 1 that Sandover was a mason. I wasn't massively convinced... but most of the wolves were. We decided not to go for him mainly ecause it would interfere with a hunt for the seer to go after people we thought were masons.

Sandover asked:

Sandover Wrote:Where did you get that idea?

Selrahc chose not to answer at the time, given that the game was still going and it was early, so I'll try to answer it now. We had novice pegged as a mason very, very early on, and we believed it until Ichabod was protected, in which case we changed our minds and thought novice was a very clever baner who ran for mayor. Baner being mayor doesn't make sense because of void-wolf and high exposure, but we wondered if maybe that's exactly why novice did it - to out-think the wolves. It turned out to be not true (and novice was actually a mason), but I thought I'd point it out as we spent a ton of time discussing if novice was baner or mason.

Anyways, back to Sandover. We had novice pegged as mason, but we were terrified that the baner would protect him, since he was mayor and generally trusted. We decided instead to try to assume he was mayor, and figure out who the other one was, neutralizing both of them by killing the other mason. The reason Sandover drew suspicion to us - is he seemed to be trying a bit too hard to separate himself from novice while still voting with him. He said over and over that he wanted novice dead (providing no reasoning at all), but he still voted with him. We didn't have much to go on at the time, but we guessed that Sandover was trying to distance himself from novice with them both being masons. There was a few other comments he made that seemed mason-y, but I don't remember which they are anymore.

-------------------------------

pocketbeetle Wrote:While I appreciate the sentiments, I think you laid it on a bit too thick there Scooter. smile

No one seemed to really call me on it in the thread, but I was curious if a comment like this would pop up in the lurker thread. I wondered later if it worked at all, or if it looked suspicious. Interesting to see someone else picked up on the fake-ness of it. smile

-------------------------

Sareln Wrote:Nope. Bruindane just up and disappeared on us. rolleye


Honestly, this was an extremely frustrating moment for the wolves. Bruindane just told us nothing realy more than he was "shaken by accusations" and then he up and quit. I'm cooled off considerably now that the game is over and we've won, but honestly we were very unhappy about it. We begged him to just login and vote for himself just to stay alive, but he wouldn't do it. I totally understand if something big with RL issues comes up, but he seemed to have quit just because of something someone said in the game thread... and honestly I could never figure out what it was. At this point, it's anyone's guess what the trigger was... But yeah, Bruindane just up and quit more or less. It felt like a huge setback at the time as he was generally the least suspected, but in the end it we did fine, so I don't really care at this point.

This post has gotten long enough, so I'll hit submit and keep reading.
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In case everyone didn't figure it out from Sareln's post, I was the void-wolf.


As a quick note, we all found it pretty humorous that Zakalwe never got killed... I was the main person pushing the Zakalwe bandwagon because I wanted to get credibility for killing a werewolf since I was the void-wolf... The funny thing was despite the fact that I pushed it for 3-4 solid days, I couldn't get him killed to save my life. There's just something humorous about the fact that a werewolf was pushing for lynching a werewolf, and he couldn't get him killed despite the fact that it was in the village's best interest to take the free kill. lol
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By the time I figured out the wolves, my voting record and erratic behavior was enough for everyone to dismiss my ideas bang. It's unbelievably frustrating to have all the reasons and "evidence" in your head (in Finnish language of course wink), but when trying to write them in a form that is convincing and believable, I sounds like a drunken barbarian yelling of his illusions lol

Serdoa's posts through the game were very villagerish, so I didn't thought for a second that he would be a wolf. Jkaen on the other hand looked so bad because of his list, that he couldn't be a wolf. So basically I identified the wolves through elimination, not by their actions in the game.

I was 100% concinced that novice was the baner, due to his baner comments and I couldn't figure out a better way to "protect" him than to accuse him a bit. That probably didn't work in my favor wink

Oh, and I still can't believe that Rowain wasn't a wolf lol. Hopefully nor hard feelings from that day smile
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novice Wrote:Ichabod, I agree 100%. I seriously considered making you mayor but it would just have been a kick in the nuts to Roland.

Thanks, novice. I don't think I played the game so badly, but I can't argue against the result.

Here are some of my thoughts:

I was very happy about nailing Selrahc on day 2. It was obviously very lucky, but since I was one of the main posters behind his lynch, it made me very happy.

But then I had to leave the game alone for some time, due to real life issues (studying for a test I had to take) and I couldn't give the game the same attention as before. I came back the day that Mardoc saved me from the night kill, but the damage has been done already.

Why? Because the village played extremely bad in day 1, day 3 and day 4.

Day 1 I tried to argue against voting for MJW, since he was very likely to be a villager. The whole "he will be always a scapegoat", "he plays badly", etc. was just a bunch of nonsense. The information we didn't get in day 1 helped the wolves win the game.

Day 3 I wasn't able to participate much, but it was awful. I'm sorry Rowain and Lewwyn, but you guys played a very bad game. Lynching you was obviously wrong, in hindsight, but there wasn't much we could do. Both of you attacked PB without any evidence.

The whole "I have a plan to get the wolves, so let's lynch PB" from Rowain was difficult to handle. And you didn't post the plan after PB's death. It was highly suspicious, no matter what you say.

Regarding Lewwyn: being a villager playing to survive until the end is nuts. Damn, the only players playing to survive are the wolves. You post a lot of random things in the game thread that didn't help the village at all.

I tried to save PB, but I wasn't sure about Lewwyn than. It just seemed to me like he was a villager with a big ego, so I voted for myself when the bandwagon against him started. Later in the game I was so pissed about Lewwyn's play that there was no way to convince me he wasn't a wolf. Even then I tried a late switch for scooter that only Meiz followed.

Day 4 was another villager against villager battle that gave us no info.

Day 5 was horrible. We had two wolves in the stand and Roland's switch is hard to understand. I'm sorry to say that Roland and novice, but you didn't played well as masons. Roland's day 5 switch and roland's vote against PB are very hard to understand now that we know that him and novice were the masons.

My big mistake on this game was not being able to trust novice. I had a bad feeling that he was a wolf trying to be trusted. A No-PM setup is too hard for the villagers. If he and Roland were able to contact me after the failed night kill we could have planned our moves better.

The wolves killed good targets in the night, I think. Uberfish is a crazy good player. He had a case against Selrahc, he would have voted to lynch zakalwe (something I tried to do a couple of times based on a post by uberfish, but it never gained traction) and he thought Rowain and PB were innocents. I wish you lived longer, man, since I would have trusted you after day 2. Losing Irgy and Sandover was very bad too, both of them helped, despite having very different ways of playing.

After we lost novice and I saw that he was innocent, I just felt that we were going to lose the game. I have to say that I'm guilty regarding the Rowain and Lewwyn lynches, but, like I said, I think both of them were terrible villagers (sorry, guys, but that's what I think). The last day there was nothing we could do. The 4 Meiz voters wouldn't switch and since GES was voting for Jkaen, I had to vote for him too, since the best we could get was a tie. Since I thought GES was a villager, it actually seemed possible to work.

Mardoc, you played a very good baner. I thought that you were innocent ever since your big thepry post, but I never would have thought you were the baner. Thank you for trusting me and saving me during the night!

GES, I hate you man :neenernee. Very well played. Never trust a lawyer... I should have known better...

Scooter, Zakalwe, Selrahc, Bruindane and GES, congratulations, guys.

I'm not happy with the way some of the villagers played. There were ego battles from time to time that served only to fill the thread with useless posts and there were a lot of inactive players (even if I left the thread for a bit, I always read everything and tried to be helpful as much as possible).

I'd probably play another game. I had a lot of fun with this one, despite being very sad with the mislynches and with our defeat.
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zakalwe Wrote:So Lewwyn's poor voting record exonerates him? What was your reason for suspecting me again?

Regarding my own voting record, it really feels like someone (as a group, not as individuals) has been following my lead and seizing upon whatever I propose that happens to be wrong. So I'm inclined to stop proposing new suspects and instead go back to clean up everybody I've ever voted for so far. Unless my gut instinct is significantly worse than a random selection, my remaining suspect list should now be packed with wolves. smile

So here are the people I have voted for so far:

Sandover (roleplay, day 1, innocent)
Lewwyn (day 1, ???)
Pocketbeetle (day 1, innocent)
Mardoc (day 2, ???)
Fire&Ice (day 2, ???)
Uberfish (day 2, innocent)
Rowain (day 2, ???)
Mr. Nice Guy (day 3, innocent)

On day 3 and 4 I only voted for MNG and fire&ice - both previous suspects of mine. So those who are saying I switched my votes around a lot must be referring to day 1 and 2.

Conveniently, there are 4 players left that I have voted for previously. Rearranging them in my current order of suspicion yields this list:

Fire&ice
Mardoc
Rowain
Lewwyn

I'm tempted to add a few more suspects to the list, but it's actually not a bad starting point. Let's find out why nobody agreed with me when I proposed these suspects. smile

I haven't read this thread yet, but I wanted to comment on this old post of mine, echoing some of Scooter's thoughts. I was kind of glad nobody dug this up on the final day, after Mardoc was killed; that made 8 out of 8 possible villagers. smile Then again, I wasn't the only one with a crappy voting record.

I was actually in "I'm gonna die" mode from day 4 and onwards; that's why Scooter jumped on me at the start of that day, as he needed the cover. Ironically, I may have defended myself a little too well, and it almost backfired, with Scooter ending up as more suspected than me for the remainder of the game. Meanwhile, I was sure that my days were numbered, so I kept playing quite aggressively, trying to take out as many villagers as possible before I died. smile
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I have to admit I played a bad game, and again I wish I could have trusted Novice more. I will post up more comments tomorrow, but to addres the point I read here about sticking to my day 3 theory, the main reason I did that was fear of the thread.

It took about 9 hours to do my list, and it was pretty poorly received. By the time it was due to be updated the thread was well over 1000 posts and I just couldnt face reviewing it at all again.

I just did not expect so much to be posted. By that time I couldnt force myself to get lynched because I wouldnt mess over the villagers like that, but I really wished I would get ate those last few days, but it was never going to happen.
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Just a note to the dead villagers who got killed early on... Bobchillingworth, uberfish, and Sandover... A big part of the reason you three got killed is that we had you identified as players bound to be strong villagers, based on things you were saying. You three and novice actually, however novice lasted longer for fear of baner protection. The four of you were all mildly suspected to be power roles, but early on we had little to go on, so when in doubt, we killed people who we thought would sniff us out, and we left people alive who we thought were suspicious (Meiz, JKaen) or we thought they were just way off in their thinking (Roland, Lewwyn). Pocketbeetle is another one we were somewhat afraid of, but for whatever bizarre reason the village lynched him. I thought the PB lynch and the Lewwyn lynches were the dumbest two oddest lynches in the game honestly - as PB struck me as fairly clued in (although he would've been better off just ignoring Rowain) and Lewwyn, while he was way off pretty often, was very obviously not a werewolf.


I think a two major factors contributed to the werewolf win, and I'll lay both of those out, though I already alluded to the one.

1. The night kills of the players who seem to have the best grasp of things, leaving the slightly less clued-in ones to argue amongst themselves.
2. Constant wolf communication. I was a wolf in both games, but I think I probably had 4X as much communication in this game as last game, honestly, and I think it played a huge role. You all saw GES's Mardoc manifesto a few posts up - we had nothing like that ever in WW2 behind the scenes. GES and I chatted literally every single day just to bounce ideas off each other's heads. He frequently ran his posts by me and vice versa, and it helped us a lot keeping us both in check. If any of you would like any samples, I could probably find one or two to give some insight on how we figured things out. Zakalwe, GES, and I exchanged countless emails each day on top of the frequent chats with GES... We also had a group chat session in the final minutes before the lynch on the last couple day phases, in case "drastic measures" needed to be taken wink. Overall, werewolf communication in this game was definitely top-notch, and I think it had a big impact on the final result.
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Not having read all of the lurker thread I still wanted to chime in. First: Thank you Sareln for being a great game-host. You really helped ease the pain when we lynched yet another villager wink

As for our wolves: Great game. I was unsure about scooter because I knowed that I would never think he is a wolf. But zakalwe and GES? Even if we had got one right, I guess we still would have lost.

As for the villagers: I have surely not played a good game and that fight with Roland was unnecessary and didn't help at all. But other then that I feel I really tried my best. Didn't help of course, but I think that was for once surely because the wolves played a very good game but also because so many players either didn't really play (why sign up for it if you then don't want to play it?) or played like wolves despite being villagers, making an already hard game even harder for us.

Anyway, I was fun even that we lost smile
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