WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Gazglum]

Novice's vote makes sense to me. Agree with you that I would like to hear Jabbz expand on his reasoning behind his vote.

Saul, can you explain any further what you saw as the difference between Novice and Jabbz's votes on you?

I'm still not sure on Saul, but people are splitting both ways and I will reread in the morning. In the meantime, I would like to hear more from Sunrise, who has clammed up after jumping a bit over-eagerly onto Mattimeo. Do you have any thoughts on anyone else, Sunrise?

[dtay]

Liked Zak's explanation-of-prior-posts post, at least relative to earlier presentation. I feel like this is a case of confirmation bias though. Lot's of posts fit SOME logic that could work for scum, but we looked really hard at Saul's for what I think was a dumb initial reason (mixing me up with someone). I just don't get why anyone thinks that blatant error of memory is more likely for a scum than a villager. Hell, I could rationalize it being even more likely for a villager, since a scum might be paranoid about misspeaking and bother to check.

Still don't like Jabbz even if I now think zak a bit more reasonable. Clear bandwagoning, starting with what I think is a very bad reaosn and then actually jumping on with a vote much later without providing ANY actual explanation besides his initial really short post about the slip up. Doesn't even mention zak's formulaic thing or comment or provide additional reasoning. It feels like someone feeling the wind and trying to get a plausible villager lynch through Also didn't like the reasoning for the suspicion thrown at Gazglum. This all above.

Town lean on Gaspar. And trying too hard is probably accurate given I was basically lynched as town for being distracted last game.

I find sunrise's lack of posting scummier than the actual content of the attack on Matt, which was meh but not horrid in my mind.

[dtay]

I may also be wary since I learned recently that overly aggressive action towards Pindicator often results in unmitigated disaster

[Doctor Saul]

Novice's vote makes sense to me. Agree with you that I would like to hear Jabbz expand on his reasoning behind his vote.

Saul, can you explain any further what you saw as the difference between Novice and Jabbz's votes on you?

Novice gives a reason to his vote that I can understand: he wants to turn the heat up and see how I'll react and he's questioned me about a number of things I've said already.

Jabbz simply said I'm the scummiest but doesn't give any reasoning. I can follow a plausible train of thought in novice's posts but I can't in Jabbz's,

[Gaspar]

I reread again because I forgot how Western Hemisphere evening tends to be an echo chamber and I blocked out some WW time tonight but ultimately I don't have a whole lot more to add. I feel like it is incredibly easy to start reading too much into everything everyone has said to this point but I mean, I think we pretty much have to lynch sunrise or Mattimeo if they don't have anything to say. Mattimeo's lone post was a very defensive overreaction to dtay; sunrise's collection is the opening nothing vote, a correction to the nothing vote, a very aggressive overreaction to Mattimeo and then dialing back a hair in a follow-up with a nothing question he never followed up on.

It probably isn't fair to sunrise but I actually find the dial-back makes me suspect him more - like an "oh noes I said too much" thing. Plus if he flips red it might answer a bit of the dtay question for me. Mattimeo, I can sort of see just throwing his post out and moving on. I don't think either is especially likely to contribute long term either. I guess we'll see what the next 12 hours give us.

If anyone else has some wild ass theories they want to throw out, I'm home in front of the computer and a little bored, so I'll engage you at least.

[Lewwyn]

What's the vote counts right now? I've been out most of the day, but that was a pretty bandwagon-y day on Sauldicator.

[Lewwyn]

For the moment, I think sunrise's overreaction to Mattimeo is slightly scummier than Mattimeo's overreaction to dtay.

sunrise089

I do agree with this.

[Lewwyn]

Okay, caught up and Zak's bit here:

I was going to elaborate a bit on Saul and then the iPad ate my post. But really, I don't think my case should be so hard to grasp. His post contains many elements that are common in scum posts. As if he's gone through a conscious or subconscious checklist. He signed up as Doctor Paul so he must follow up with some role play. Some town reads are nice to appear wise and reasonable, and gain some friends. Need some brewing suspicions so throw in the part about Brick. And of course a vote - Fenn will do.

The whole is scummier than the individual parts. But if I am to single out anything, it's the town reads. Anything more than a null read on Q is questionable, IMO. And his read on Dtay isn't actually relevant, since he wasn't a very hot lynch candidate. So no actual reason to throw that out if you're town. And obviously, the fact that he wasn't even talking about the right player suggests that he may have been a little too eager to share that read.

Dtay, you certainly don't have to agree with this case, and I'm not claiming that it's great, but I think suspecting me on those grounds is a bit much. You may be overthinking things. You were voting for Saul to make him post, and when he did, many of us found his post scummy and therefore joined you. There doesn't have to be anything sinister about that.

is pretty convincing.

But for me I'm going to stay on Doctor Saul because I think the follow up posts that come after his "Hey I'm here let's lynch Fenn" post read more squirmy than righteous. Part of the reason is the length of these posts are rather short and and quick. They feel a lot like simple denials than anything else. "You're scum." "No, I'm not".

Sauldicator hasn't played scum for a while and he sounds rattled to me. I didn't really play well last game (one day ) but part of that was I did get rattled and I'm seeing that bit here. Zak is correct that the initial post hits all the bases. I'd say read the one after it too though.

[Lewwyn]

I also agree with jabbz. Dtay's timing and his sudden defense of Saul are awfully suspicious especially after Saul. What's interesting is I went back to look at what Saul has actually said of substance on people. Specifically he's talked about dtay being normal and aggressive, here he clarifies:

Have you figured out who you confused Dtay with, Saul?

What was aggressive about Dtay's posting?

Have not had a chance to go back and dig through old threads. I don't even recall the number of the last game I played.

Dtay was pushing actively and making a lot of early accusations. He seemed one of the first people to get out of the joke votes and into actively going after people. And he didn't fixate on one person either, he appeared to go after everything that caught his suspicion. Hence aggressive.

@Zak- no further reasoning about your bad argument? Maybe you'll come up with something good while you're shoveling snow!

So for me the substance seems to be that dtay is aggressive and actively pushing people. That feels a bit like an exaggeration to me.

Here's a small quote from dtay's response to Jabbz defending Saul:

I got on the train because saul had basically not had a substantive post. Then he had a substantive post + the subsequent defenses of himself/voiced suspicions, which got him solidly out of "not posting" territory and voided the only reason I was on him.

This comes directly after Saul's post above which is the most substantive post Saul made after that initial post. All the posts in between are about trying to figure out who dtay is and saying Zak is wrong. There are no other substantive posts. Dtay saying: "subsequent defenses of himself/voiced suspicions" may be enough to "void" his reason for votign for him, but is that enough? Do you vote for someone only to make them post, and then not actually examine what they posted? Maybe dtay, you buy the initial substance post voting for Fenn, but the subsequent defenses are actually more suspicious to me. It feels a bit like you see Saul's made his post and a few others so we won't lynch him.

[Lewwyn]

One addendum/clarification. Saul's post looks like the kind of post a scum might make when he sits down to produce a "good" post, designed to sway votes away from himself. I'm obviously not expecting every scum post to follow the same format.

Yeah that's what I thought. Not that this is "the formula", but that it is crafted to sound good and portray activity.