Suboptimal IV: Indonesian Insanity

[suboptimal]

Thank you for pointing out the kickout from a war dec. If the builder moves to the city center what about moving to the hill SW of the dyes? The builder can't move and chop in the same turn and I'd be in position to take it.

A Turn 48 attack looks the same as a Turn 49 attack except that the fourth warrior is on the sheep hill instead of adjacent to the city but the city is still sieged. We need to keep in mind that if a unit moves out of the city into a gap the siege is broken (IIRC).

The turn has made it to Rowain. Good chance of a third turn today.

[Cornflakes]

Loaded up the save. Your builder can mine on T49 by moving SW into the ocean this turn (T44), onto the harbor pin T45, and then making a beeline to Iron from there. I see the turn is almost back to you so I'm posting this now, and I'll edit in other observations as I continue to look through the save in case it rolls soon.

EDIT 1: SW of dyes does look like a good option if builder enters city.

We need to keep in mind that if a unit moves out of the city into a gap the siege is broken (IIRC).

Is this true? I don't recall this being the case (in fact I remember being surprised that siege was not broken by a friendly unit adjacent to a besieged city). I could be wrong though.

EDIT 2: We still have a couple turns to decide whether to press the attack on T49 or T49. Probably will have to adjust on the fly anyway since Woden will likely be bringing in his already-build warrior, 2nd slinger, and maybe another freshly-build warrior from his capital. It's likely he will have time to upgrade an archer at minimum, and his UU-sword at worst case. In all honesty, I suspect that Woden will manage to scramble sufficient defenders but you have to give it your best shot. After all, even if in the worst case if the attack fails it only really cost you the Levy gold and a warrior, and still slowed Woden down at least as much as it slowed you.

Where is Punky's settler going? North to Dyes, guarded by slinger? 

Where will Sound of Silence's 5th citizen work? Pearls for the 2/1, or GFH for 2? I'd probably go for the gold + faith over the production because the gold especially can help on the Macedonian front.

With Iron connected T49, you may have a lagging Carthaginian warrior still in their territory 1NE of their city center when Iron is connected. If so, I'd upgrade it there and send it in as a Sword reinforcement (hopefully directly towards Macedon's 3rd city if everything goes well at Methone).

Punky's really could use a couple builder charges. Your new 3rd could use a builder as well. Monumentality can't come fast enough. Methone will need an immediate builder faith-purchase as well. Might make sense to use your faith purely for builders at first and not buy another settler for a while.

[suboptimal]

I look around and you are correct. You need to have Zone of Control on all passable tiles surrounding a city, that's it.

Regarding the buillder, I see the path you are recommending. I was planning on going further south and disembarking on genius cows.

[suboptimal]

Turn 44 has just arrived. Regarding your Edit #2 questions...

- settler at Punky's is going to the dyes, slinger will escort. That'll get us +3 and +2 per turn once settled.
- the new pop at Sound will be working the pearls for the and

I don't think Woden can get a Hypaspist up before the attack unless he comes across some gold - he'd need 100 to upgrade a warrior and was at 48 + 5 per turn as of my T43. If he gets to Iron Working soon he'll push the game into the Classical (3/5 in that age) and we'd get to Oligarchy faster.

[suboptimal]

Turn 44

I open the turn to two warnings - Punky’s is not growing its population and it needs more housing. Well, right now I don’t want Punky’s to grow, so this is good. Kampungs will solve the latter issue, as will the settler build.

I turn first to international news as we’re watching that closely now...Woden’s military strength is now 71, so he’s got a warrior out. His science rate hasn’t gone down but he’s now in last place. Remains second place in culture. Alhazard completed a tech and that’s about it.

Up at Methone:




This is after the western warrior has moved; I’ve also brought the embarked warriors up the coast. I’m left with a “bad” decision – stay put or move off this tile. At first I figure fortify in place. However, that might be an unnecessary provocation and puts my warrior in a bad spot. I decide to move NW to the jungle now. That will let me defog a little bit up there and gives me extra cover from the warrior as it would be attacking across a river into difficult terrain. It might also make Woden back off a little bit. This reveals the city center of Alexandria and his new warrior:




His capital’s borders are visible in the fog to the north (and NE of the warrior). This city placement confuses me – it seems like a junk location for a city plant unless there’s iron in the fogged desert tile to the west of the city center. I wonder if he got forced there because of a city-state to the NW of that location… The city is building a monument.

In the southwest the warrior disembarks next to the camp and the galley starts to head around the south side of the island. builder at Punky’s embarks. Warrior SW of Nan Madol is three turns from the coastline – it has to go north of the tundra mountain because there are cliffs to the south.

Punky’s settler is due out in three turns. Amani will be active in Carthage in two.

The war drums start to beat in the background...three turns out from war.

Cornflakes, what do you think about sending that warrior NE through Macedon terrain and around to the N/NE of Methone? That would wind up putting it in the marsh during the attack but it might draw the warrior with it.

[Cornflakes]

Oh dear, I wouldn't have advanced a single warrior alone like that with two known Macedonian units adjacent. That warrior is dead Macedonian declares war on their turn, attacks with the promoted slinger for 30 expected damage, attacks across the river with the (assumed) battlecry warrior for 28 expected damage, and the other warrior advances to pen you in. There is no escape that I see unless Macedon does not declare war.

Only thing to do is gather as much map knowledge as you can before the warrior dies by going 1NE to the jungle hill. Retreat back to the Dyes loses to slinger shot + warrior, retreat W loses to 2 warrior attacks. If that warrior does die then your chances of victory at Methone are 0%. I hate suddenly go all doom and gloom, but I see literally no chance of capturing Methone. He will have a battlecry warrior inside of the city, another full health warrior, plus a promoted slinger-soon-to-be-archer. 5 warriors die to that. Best case scenario you promote 2 Swords on T49 and they arrive on scene T55 & T56 which is 10 turns, enough time to upgrade a UU-Swords instead of upgrading his archer (won't need the archer to hold off just your 3 warriors).

Here are the options that I see:
1: Continue with the plan to levy Carthage's military (80) and upgrade both warriors to swords (160). Press the attack ASAP on Methone with your 3 warriors but as a feint only. Try to avoid losing units, dance around mostly on the east side of the city, snipe at units as the opportunity arises. Don't actually attack the Methone city center as that would be throwing away HP for no gain. Then take the 2 swords and march with all speed to Alexandria. Assuming the Amani envoys at Carthage claim additional tiles, it should pick up the stone tile NE-E of the city center. Best case you can maneuver both of Carthage's warriors into the closest tiles to Alexandria by T48 in order to upgrade on T49 (Stone and 1NE of city center tile). From there your swords are adjacent to Alexandria culture T51, both attack on T52 dealing 160 damage if still 10 STR (100 if warrior garrisoned). You have a decent shot at razing Alexandria with 2 swords if you can keep Woden's military busy chasing your warriors in the east. Then either advance the swords to cause as much havoc as possible, or put them in zone defense south of Methone.

2: Save the gold from the Carthage levy + upgrade, cause as much havoc as you can with the levied warriors while trying to keep your own warrior alive. Ultimately you probably can't do any damage with the warriors other than causing Woden to over-emphasize ancient Melee-line military rather than his UU-horsemen. For the cost of 120 already spent you earn the Defensive Tactics inspiration when Macedon declares war on you, and slow his start down a little. With Macedon you already know that he's gunning for you at his earliest convenience so it's not like you are ruining relations with a long-term potential ally. Wait until the Classical era officially rolls, and then move Amani around to Stokholm for the +2 suzerain era points (or use her to maintain certain control over Nan Madol). The levied warriors might be best spent making a circuitous path around the east side, staying in Macedon vision but not putting yourself in danger of more than 1 attack at a time. Eventually embark on the north shore to continue exploration there. DON'T COMPLETE IW IN THIS PLAN UNTIL MACEDON LAUNCHES AN INVASION! Maintain the ability to build a couple more warriors to upgrade if/when Woden comes calling.

In either case you need to be prepared for the inevitable military clash vs. Macedon. Knights seem to me the best timing-wise. I don't have time at the moment to do an extensive analysis of these 2 options. First thoughts are: Alexandria is a weak city anyway so the damage wouldn't be too great. Saving the 240 for you own use will give you 3 swords, or 2.5 knights (with Mercenaries). Personally I'd probably save the gold and plan to unlock Knights ASAP. Your terrain is very defensive in nature. With that line of mountains guarding your flank you can settle along the west coast without extending your exposure, as well as the offshore island to the west. Even if Woden presses forward with all speed you should be fine defensively. Eastern coastal settlement probably out of the question until you get Medieval military in the field but with the island in the west I'm not too concerned about stifled expansion.

[suboptimal]

I was a bit overdue for a moment of and I think we got it. That warrior is going NE regardless of a war dec as that's the only way out for it (unless he's sealed off his borders with Early Empire). Once consolation is that it's not our unit -- it's Nan Madol's. The only warrior that we have a truly vested interest in preserving is the wounded one to the west of the situation at Methone.

I think we should try to continue with the attack, keeping the above in mind. I'll press the attack with the embarked warriors to try to draw troops that way, and then make a getaway via the sea routes, probably around to the north -- even when the levy expires if we still have suzerainty we see what the units are up to until they get killed. We'll get visibility on Carthage's units on Turn 46 and see where they are. If we are able to draw Woden to the east we'll upgrade and attack. As for the wounded warrior, I think if we're at war when I open the save I pull it back for the time being, or go NW just enough to defog what's left of Alexandria's terrain. I'll hold IW at one turn to completion (even with the mine) in order to see how he reacts.

I still can't figure out why that city was put there, unless he's going for the Pyramids and that was "the spot". On to the save...

[suboptimal]

Pause in the action. I've played all of Turn 45 except for one move. The warrior at Methone:




One other screenshot for the wider theater:




We're presently not at war, Woden emptied his treasury (he's at 3) to purchase the tile 2SE of Methone to place the Encampment. His milpower is at 72, so no new units have been built. The embarked units have already moved north and and the western warrior has moved SW onto the stone to prevent discovery. Woden knows we've got two units in the area as he's met the warrior by Carthage. We've got three options (fortify in place is not one of them):

1) Move NE onto the jungle hill. This defogs a bit further north but I think results
2) Move SE back to the dyes. Only two units can get to it and I can retreat SE, perhaps drawing the promoted warrior away from Alexandria and sustaining only two attacks in the process.
3) Move W across the river. This puts my warrior out of slinger range and across the river from both warriors. I could then loop it up around Alexandria to the W/NW and only be subjected to pursuit from the unpromoted warrior. It also gets us in the position of having four units to attack Alexandria with, particularly if I can draw some units back towards Methone with the embarked warriors. This, I think, is the "high survivability" option. EDITED TO ADD: moving west puts both Macedonian warriors at -8 strength: -5 for the river and -3 for the forest.

I'm willing to hold the save for an hour or so, but my (poor) instinct is to go west as that's the best chance at preserving the unit longer-term and then loop north. Land the SE units sooner rather than later to try to force a shift in his forces in that direction, then move in on Alexandria once he's too far away.

[suboptimal]

Ran the combat sims assuming the slinger has the +5 vs units promotion and the warrior has battlecry. Moving SE-SE gets the warrior killed by the slinger either T46 or T47 if he declares and pursues. Going NE gets 50 points of damage the first turn and then it depends on what's NE of the slinger. If NE-NE for the slinger is over open ground the slinger can kill it in another two turns. Going W it sustains the least amount of damage -- 54 points of damage and only a possible follow-up attack from the warrior if I move W-NW next turn, no possible attack if I go W-W. I'm going W.

[suboptimal]

Turn 45

I’ve already given a progress report of the Macedonian Situation, time for what’s going on in the rest of the world, along with the move of that seemingly trapped warrior...

In the southwest the warrior attacks the barbarian camp, 24 to me for 34 to it. The galley continues around the southern end of the island and finds evidence of a fresh water lake on a tundra island along the southern map edge. The galley at Punky’s has healed despite moving last turn and is up to 44/100. I’ll let it sit in the city this turn and then send it exploring to the north. Builder moves southwards and will disembark next turn. Eastern warrior continues moving towards the coast, just in case. Embarked warriors move north and hit a slight terrain curveball as outlined in the interim report.

Now, what about that warrior?

As outlined in my own response, the only possible route to prevent death is west. Of course, if there’s a unit west of Alexandria and he declares war then the unit would have been lost regardless of direction. The knowledge that we have “help” to the west might also deter pursuit. I’ll bring the warriors up from the SE of Methone to present as much of a threat as possible, then wait to see what’s up next turn. If he completes the Encampment via chop it won’t have walls and could be pillaged somewhat easily.

The result of the move:




The river appears to form a delta north of Alexandria and the borders of that city appear to straddle the delta as they are N and NW of Alexandria. I’ll try to get to the copper hill and see what’s up.