Civ4 AI Survivor: Season Four

[haphazard1]

Not sure I see how Mansa would be uniquely disadvantaged by it. His enemies could be (depending on their espionage preferences) running the espionage slider as well. And putting 20% into espionage when your "free" economy is only 50% or so is arguably worse than putting 20% into it when you have 80% free economy.

Mansa just got off to a tough start, and was not given enough time at peace for his economic edge to translate into a military tech advantage. This is a key vulnerability of the economic-focused AIs such as Mansa or Gandhi. They need time to pull ahead of the pack, and an early war declaration can wreck their game. It is a risk built in to their economic focus.

[shallow_thought]

Game seven was quite fun to watch, even though my picks (as usual) were not very good.

At least you remembered to get your picks in . Oh well, time to catch up on YouTube and see what happened.

[darrelljs]

This was one of the largest tech disparities we've ever seen in AI Survivor: the Incans were fielding huge armies of tanks while the Celts still lacked Rifling tech and were defending their cities with pikes and longbows. Tanks are really good against infantry due to their ability to take City Raider promotions; they absolutely slaugher rifle defenders, and what they do to longbows can't be mentioned in polite company.

.  The screenshot with Huayna researching Robotics with second place Boudica still on Philosophy...yikes.  What a romp.

Darrell

[T-hawk]

Tanks ... what they do to longbows can't be mentioned in polite company.

Would it be in bad taste to note this is happening right at the anniversary of Tiananmen Square? ...

[Sullla]

Community predictions have been added to the preview page for Game Eight! Here's a quick summary:






I thought that Game Eight didn't have as much of a dominant favorite as some of our other opening round matches, and the picking contest entries seemed to feel the same way. Stalin was the clear community pick to win the game with about 40% of the vote, however there was also considerable support for Pericles, Hannibal, and Ragnar. This was also reflected in the runner up entries where there was no rhyme or reason to the selections. No one seemed to know who was going to finish second, only that it wasn't likely to be Lincoln or Hammurabi. The American leader did show up in one place though, as an overwhelming favorite to be the First to Die with more than two thirds of the picks seeing him as a goner. No one else was even remotely close in that category. Finally, the victory type leaned towards Domination for this game, perhaps from all of the individuals picking Stalin or Hannibal or Ragnar. We also had a lot of people choosing Cultural in addition to the usual Spaceship, likely the contest entries backing Pericles or one of the other high peace weight leaders. It certainly didn't seem likely that Ragnar would win by culture.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

Myth: Ragnar or Ramesses first to die 100%, both surrounded by opposite peaceweights. Ragnar is next to mostly pacifistic leaders tho, while Ram is not. Therefore, Hannibal wins because he's closer to the early collapse. But he needs a #2, and it's most likely to be someone on the opposite side of the map with a similar peaceweight.... aka Ragnar, I guess. Stalin might screw up my prediction. So could Ragnar, since he IS Ragnar.... Could be an oddball game though, with high/low winner/second. Who tf knows tbh.

ZincAlloy: This one's gonna be bloody, but the high peace weight civs win out. Ragnar's berserker rage leads him to an early death at the hands of an alliance led by Pericles, who'll use that shared war bonus to be best buds with the peaceful three. Together they crush Stalin and Hannibal, and then Pericles is voted UN leader. Ramesses and Hammurabi are basically clones and fight it out for second in points, but Ramesses's beard is shinier so he takes it.

MirrorG: In my heart, I want Lincoln to be able to pull of a display like Gandhi did earlier this season. In my head, I know it's probably more likely he'll get squished fairly early on thanks to the very low peace weights of his neighbors, his best bet being that Pericles' fast expansion connects the two and allows them to share a religion, possibly allowing Lincoln to call / buy the Greeks into defensive wars, however unlikely that lucky chain of events may be. ...My memory of this season, though, shows that logic is better thrown out the window, and as such I feel Ragnar may end up pulling a Napoleon like last game and getting knocked out first. All in all, I feel Pericles' position and traits would allow him to easily choke out Ragnar and have little competition from Ramesses (and I'm guessing Russia and America will be about as distracted hating each other as IRL), so chances are he'll be pretty free to come out on top of this one. Expecting this to be another game where only one civ survives to be sent to the wildcard game, though, since that just seems to be the theme of this season.

Hydrocyanide: Ragnar surrounded by peaceful builders = rabid fox in a henhouse.

Takuan: I'm rooting for Stalin considering his performance last year. Second place goes to Ramesses due to his great capital and land, and he's most likely going to stack wonders boosting his score. Meanwhile, Ragnar and Stalin will go on a rampage against Pericles and Lincoln respectively, while Hammurabi and Hannibal do absolutely nothing all game and wait to be conquered. Stalin will just roll over the map and win by domination. I have absolute confidence that religions will utterly crush my predictions once again.

Aus prof: Wow, so many leaders here have great land! I’m guessing Pericles to win despite his starting techs (which suck for his capital) because he has good land, and I think he’s a solid AI. Meanwhile, Ramesses second because he’s going to stay out of the way and not get involved in the chaotic mess that peace weights will ensure this game becomes. Lastly, first to die is hard between Ragnar who has great land but is surrounded by enemies, and Hannibal who has crappy land but no nearby enemies. Chose Ragnar in the end, mostly because I don’t like his expansion rates, ie: he expands slowly so might not use all his land. Lastly, I just want to say that I’m pretty sure Stalin got lucky last season. I’m guessing you could insert any low peace weight AI into his positions last year, have the diplomacy shake out the same, and have that AI perform well. He even got the lucky start next to the food - Um, I mean Mansa - last championship. I’m just not sold. Please don’t prove me wrong!

Slothlife: Ragnar ruins someone's day early but suicides in the middle ages. Til VALHALL!

Keler (artdeco): I think it is obvious , Stalin,Hannibal or Pericles will win this game 99%. A very very slight chance Ramesses can win if Pericles ends up as first to die instead of Ragnar or Lincoln. For others, no chance to win at all. At least it helps to narrow down choices. On the bright sight, we have more balanced map unlike HC and JC games of this season. I checked the resources, this game won't be a boring one to watch. Only Ragnar starts in a disadvantaged position that he will try to expand through Lincoln probably to exist long enough not to die first.

Y3llowSheep: Given the peace weight splits, I picture this to be a violent world. Given the lackluster performance of the AIs on the "Good" side of the divide, "Evil" will probably prevail headed by Uncle Joe (his evil compatriots aren't the most competent themselves). Still, Stalin doesn't strike me as hyper-competent along the likes of Cyrus or Mansa, who both got owned, so who knows?

haphazard1: How the religions shake out in this group with no one starting with mysticism is a huge wild card. But I am going to guess peace weight differences will prove dominant over religion, particularly with Stalin not caring much about faith. Lincoln will be first to die, just too tempting a target for the warmongers. Hannibal will tech away quietly in the west, eventually pulling ahead as his fellow warmongers waste resources on endless wars and the high peace weight leaders get dragged down by those wars. Carthage wins by space, with Ragnar taking second by conquering a lot of land from his high peace weight neighbors but lagging Hannibal badly in tech.

LoneWolf: It's an unpredictable game, since low peaceweight characters have enough prominence here to possibly counteract low peaceweight aggression, if they play their cards well. My scenario is Stalin obviously smashes Lincoln, but Ragnar ultimately fails to conquer Pericles, resulting eventually in the Athenian reversing the war and annexing the Viking's lands. Stalin is second for most of the game, but eventually gets defeated by Peri, who then launches spaceship. The second scenario is Stalin or Ragnar just doing a juggernaut on the peaceniks, but my first prognosis is more interesting and has some possibility to succeed.

LaserGuy: I like Ragnar's start here, with multiple seafood tiles in his capitol that he can use to jumpstart his economy. If he can capitalize on his early lead by taking out Ramses or Hammurabi, he's a strong contender to win. I'm not sure I believe the hype on Stalin since this isn't an AI I've never really seen much out of. Still, his start is decent and his neighbors are weak, so he's got a pretty good shot. First to die is a toss-up between Lincoln and Pericles, I think. Pericles' wonder focus, poor starting techs and stone start are going to seriously hamper his development and expansion and leave him easy pickings for the likes of Ragnar. Lincoln is a notorious pacifist with both Stalin and Ragnar not too far away. Ramses I expect to survive a bit longer, if only because he's going to get the early religion and may be able to make some alliances early on that will help keep him alive.

Commodore: Betting on the AIs feels increasingly like betting on racing snails; none of the competitors are going to cover themselves with glory. Nevertheless, I feel like all the good jungle-free land Stalin has around him, coupled with a Lincoln ripe for the plucking, makes me think he'll do well. Hannibal and Ragnar look ready to waste themselves in wars halfway around the world, so I think Pericles will probably take second with his excellent gold start and safe westward neighbor...so of course, having said that, the my snails will now proceed to smash into each other all game while Hammurabi bumbles into a win...

Philly D: Pericles and Lincoln expand well... look for Ragnar to waste his start again.

Game Eight Picking Contest Entry Form

[Fluffball]

My read of the map was weird for word the same as yours, haphazard. I seen to recall that happening in a previous season as well. This doesn't bode well for you since I think I'm averaging about two points a game or something awful.

Edit: actually I think I picked Stalin second but same reasoning. Hannibal incompetently techs to space while everyone else incompetently does very little.

[Zalson]

I feel like Stalin's industrious trait really helps him and really helps the AI in general: when they get stuck on stupid wonders, they at least build the stupid wonder faster -- unlike Churchill who spent what, 40 turns, building the pyramids?

[haphazard1]

Maybe you should be worried about your prediction looking like mine, Fluffball. I have not been scoring very well either.

Hannibal's capital is not great, but it does match his starting techs with some seafood for early growth. He has horses close plus iron at the capital for early unit options, and the ivory plus his charismatic trait should give him a boost with bigger cities earlier than most of his rivals. He has a chunk of land to expand into, and while much of it is pretty crummy land it is coastal and has a river so his financial trait should generate some extra commerce. That is my thinking, anyway. If Hannibal sends his settlers straight south into the tundra, though, he will be toast.

Zalson, I agree that industrious seems to work pretty well for the AIs. They benefit from the cheap forges, and if they do go for wonders it does not cost them quite as much. Not a super strong trait but not bad.

[Sullla]

I disagree about the Industrious trait; I think it's one of the weaker options in the hands of the AI. Who gets what wonder is almost entirely determined by which AI happens to be leading in tech, not by who has the Industrious trait. And the overall cost discounts are large enough on Deity that the +50% production bonus (only on wonders) is fairly insignificant. The double speed production on forges is probably the better half of the trait for the AI games.

Industrious did grade out as a mid-tier trait after the first three seasons of AI Survivor. But that wasn't due to a broad basis of success on the part of Industrious AI leaders:



It was due to Huayna Capac and Stalin both smashing the competition so hard. Look at how top-heavy the Industrious trait is in this scoring (more points are good). We have Huayna Capac at 28 points, Stalin at 25 points, and then nothing until one-hit-wonder De Gaulle pops up at 8 points. I mean sure, it's better than a terrible trait like Protective, but without those two top heavy leaders pulling up the score of the Industrious trait, it would be right down at the bottom with the Philosophical trait and the not-good-for-these-AI-games Organized trait.

How is Industrious trait doing thus far in Season Four?

Huayna Capac (Ind/Fin): Won Game Seven
Roosevelt (Ind/Org): distant, distant Runner-Up in Game One
Qin Shi Huang (Ind/Pro): Eliminated Game One
Louis (Ind/Cre): Eliminated Game Two
De Gaulle (Ind/Cha): Eliminated Game Three
Bismarck (Ind/Exp): Eliminated Game Five
Augustus (Ind/Imp): Eliminated Game Seven

In other words, Huayna is a monster and the rest of the Industrious leaders are a bunch of chumps. Now watch as Stalin and Ramesses finish #1 and #2 in today's game and make this analysis look terrible.

[haphazard1]

Interesting that philosophical does not seem to do more for the AIs, given how many specialists they tend to run. I guess the increasing cost of additional great people means the extra GPP from philosophical only produces a couple more great people than they would have gotten anyway. The ones they do get all arrive a bit earlier, but the AI does not really know how to specialize a city to serve as a GP farm.