[Spoilers] Lazteuq and RefSteel's PB51 Adventure

[Lazteuq]

T148
Ramk declared on GKC. This might change things...Do we want to dogpile? GKC has started moving all his units away from the Gira front. He is certainly vulnerable, but that doesn't necessarily mean we should attack.

Ramk's power is significantly higher than GKC's, almost double! Unfortunately, we have no idea what his army looks like. Only data point is that Ramk has Civil Service. If we leave GKC alone, I think he can probably survive, but will have a really tough time. On the other hand, if we attack, the 2v1 would likely destroy him quickly, and Ramk would reap a lot of the benefit.
I don't think Ramk is going all-in with this war, because he hasn't been whipping much recently.

My conclusion: It's better to leave them in a 1v1 and attack superdeath instead.
If GKC starts collapsing, then we can quickly assemble some opportunistic knights to grab some land. That would only be after watching on the sidelines for a while.

Unfortunately, Superdeath will probably see an attack coming no matter what. I'm gambling that closing the border would be more suspicious than assembling units in the open. I'll try to keep units spread out so it isn't as obvious. In those couple turns of warning he gets, he will probably be able to panic-research Feudalism and whip a few longbows. Those will seriously slow us down. We'll have engineering in 2 turns, that helps with reducing his reaction time.
I think we have the means to capture 2 of the border cities with just knights. I'll be willing to send a few knights to their deaths against longbows in hill cities if it means reducing his reaction time to whip defenders.
I don't expect to fully destroy Superdeath, because he will try to quickly make peace with Mjmd and send the praets and cats up north. I think we'll have at worst 5 turns of war before the big stacks show up. If we catch him with armies deep in Mjmd's territory, it might be more like 8 turns but I won't bet on it.

[Lazteuq]

He whipped a bit last turn, but he's not in panic mode yet, and I see no new units in the border cities. I think he sent that deal to look for clarification, because we've been sending mixed signals. I think he was still hoping that maybe those units in our territory weren't aggressive. I thought about returning the deal and then attacking a few turns later anyway, but I feel like that would be wrong and unsportsmanlike.

I think a large portion of his power is currently barracks,stables,walls, and tech, not actual units. Here's the graph:

I'm worried our attack is going to be a bit too late. Superdeath just took another of Mjmd's cities, now he's down to only 3. If we could have attacked earlier, it might have taken enough pressure off Mjmd to stop the advance. Oh well.
I think war could start on T151 at the earliest, probably 152. Some maces and cats won't reach the front until T154ish but I don't want to wait for them.

Units continue to travel across our expansive empire. Whipping lots of knights. Enchilada will have a bank in 4 turns, that alone will add +25gpt at breakeven. Next great person is 50/50 scientist/merchant out of Ceviche. Cerveza and Persepolis are working on Settlers.

Here's the financial advisor: Not our strongest department, breakeven is between 30 and 40%.

[Lazteuq]

Uh oh...

How is it possible for him to reduce our score during a turn, without gaining score himself? Maybe this was a sneaky naval invasion and he razed the city so quickly that pbspy didn't notice? In any case, I'm spooked.

Rules question: I'm not supposed to log in again until the next turn has begun, right?

[RefSteel]

Congratulations on winning your first MP war here at RB!! Nicely done! Be warned that superdeath is a much better tactician (and likely has significantly more and better units) than gira did though. If you'd like, I'll try to provide some tactical suggestions if I can see what the front looks like and/or if you have specific questions, but obviously my schedule has been demonstrating lately why I never join these games myself: I can never guaranty that I'll have time for them every day ... or even necessarily every week!

How is it possible for him to reduce our score during a turn, without gaining score himself? Maybe this was a sneaky naval invasion and he razed the city so quickly that pbspy didn't notice?

That's probably it, yeah. If we somehow had a size 1 city that had never been size 2 but still controlled a bunch of tiles culturally, and he autorazed it, that would do it too. It's even possible in theory that it could be an Artist bomb without the need for war. (He wouldn't get the points for newly-acquired tiles until he's held them for twenty turns, but we'd lose the points for lost tiles right away.) That seems unlikely though.

Rules question: I'm not supposed to log in again until the next turn has begun, right?

Assuming we're at war, yeah, best to wait until your side of the turn split to log in. If you want to look around to assess the situation (but not change anything) to save time when you play later on, you can PM superdeath to ask if that's okay, but best practice is just to wait until the turn rolls.

Good luck! Looks like we're about to be in for some exciting turns!

[Lazteuq]

Good luck! Looks like we're about to be in for some exciting turns!

Certainly.
Here's the solution to the mystery: Superdeath razed Gordita using the magic of teleportation. He used the war declaration to teleport a chariot which had been in our land back onto his side of the border. Then the chariot beat the 1 axe in Gordita on 36% odds and razed the city. He then deleted the chariot and didn't make any other moves as far as I can tell. I'm not even sure if he planned this, maybe he just saw the chariot on the border and said "why not try?"
Then he offered a 10turn peace treaty. Maybe that was the real purpose of the war declaration.

The raze of Gordita also cut our beakers just enough that Engineering didn't finish. That's pretty lame.

Here's a view of the front:


As you can see, we have a knight threatening Corvair. He gets 95% odds on that unpromoted archer. I'm not sure if there's actually much benefit in taking Corvair, but I do want to start cutting his road connections. That lake to the south of corvair is a barrier that could help us divide and conquer.
I think the main push should be toward Plymouth Cuda. If we can take it and push toward Dodge Viper, that will isolate Mazda, Chevy, and Pontiac, they will be easier to deal with individually later. We should be able to fork Dodge Viper and Grand Pre(if we get that far).


Counting tiles, I think the majority of superdeath's units won't be in striking range of the front until T155. We don't have any vision on those units, all his newly captured cities from Mjmd are lightly defended. So basically there should be 4 more turns of relative flexibility.

Plemo has assembled a stack of 4 caravels on the coast off Haarlem. I don't see how it is a threat, but you don't just stack 4 caravels for no reason...

[Lazteuq]

T151
Superdeath offered peace with 50 gold to sweeten the deal. Problem is, I don't see how to proceed with peace. I don't think we can afford not to attack him, and/or GKC. I think staying peaceful at our current size of empire would be an excellent way to finish the game in 3rd place. Fighting big wars might backfire horribly, but at the very least it is more interesting than slowly teching toward Rifling on ~T200 while Plemo gets it ~T170. I don't think we have any chance of winning if we don't keep killing. My hope is to gain enough lead in hammers that we can leverage it into overwhelming units, or brute force wealth.
Lurkers, what do you think of this ideology?

I expect Superdeath's longbowman whips to start showing up next turn. My best guess is that we'll have to end this war after 10-15turns due to crippling war weariness.
One thing is basically guaranteed: With all this whipping, we've forced Superdeath's economy into the ground even worse than it already was. That means he won't have getting any more modern units soon. He only got feudalism because of gold reserves (probably capture gold from Mjmd).
Worryingly, he took another city off Mjmd. Really hoping Mjmd stays alive enough to make him maintain a significant defensive force down south.

GKC does seem to be holding on against Ramk, next turn we'll have a really good view of their front.
I have no idea what's happening between Plemo and El Grillo. I have a suspicion that their war might not be very hot.
Also, that stack of 4 caravels from Plemo moved south.
Aaaaaaand Plemo got Liberalism.

[Lazteuq]

T152:


Loss of 1 knight for 3 cats killed. 4 knights moderately damaged 1E of Plymouth Cuda. They have a medic in the stack and so should heal up decently fast.
It might still have been possible to take it this turn, but with severe losses.

Without considering the impact of capture gold, we can have gunpowder in 7 turns for Musketeers.

I didn't do anything other than move units forward this turn, but I might try to fork Dodge Viper and Grand Pre with a couple knights next turn. That will definitely include a sentry knight.

Plemo is confirmed to have East Indiamen. It looks like he might be attacking El Grillo's south over water. That's smart. Their powers just keep increasing, so I think they aren't really fighting just yet.
It looks like Ramk captured 1 city, razed 1, and is now stalled. GKC has plenty of crossbows and axes in the area now.

[Lazteuq]

T153 Very little combat this turn, Traded a axe for a praet south of Chile. Lost a galley in the south.
I didn't attack Plymouth Cuda this turn!, even though we certainly had enough units to take it. I chose to instead bombard the defenses while moving the 5 knights farther forward. He doesn't have walls in Plymouth Cuda, so catapult bombardment is decently fast.

Here's a critical thing: While he has quite a few more units in Dodge Viper, Superdeath would have to leave them vulnerable on flat ground in order to reinforce one city or another. So he is triple-forked by those 5 knights. This is a bit sketchy, because if he suicides his 3 cats onto the knights, he might be able to kill them. But it will be risky for him. 

The plan for that galley is to keep moving south and re-load the axe onto it next turn. Hopefully the unloaded axe makes superdeath think there isn't a second unit on the boat. Of course he might show up with a trireme and annhilate the galley, but I'm gambling that he whipped longbows on the coastal cities instead of boats.

In other news, I re-founded Pigpolis.
Ramk took GKC's city of Vijayanagra, so I guess their war isn't so stalled after all. Darn. I wonder if there is any way to actually prop up GKC.

[Lazteuq]

T154:
I overextended with those knights. Lost all 5 knights in return for only 2 catapults killed on defense. Unfortunately, Aggressive Praets are still more relevant than I thought.
Superdeath offered a no-strings attached peace treaty at the beginning of the turn. I declined, because I don't think the loss of those knights was critical. It certainly hurts, but we still have the strength to take Plymouth Cuda! He left Plymouth Cuda so empty, I suspected a trap. But then I realized its only T154 so his main stack can't have returned just yet. Suicided 2 cats taking it, because I really wanted to preserve the remaining Knights. We now have a severe Knight Shortage.

Also took the city of Corvair and razed it. I razed because I don't want to deal with defending it to prevent its culture from re-expanding. I think Superdeath probably expects an invasion toward his capitol, like the knights were telegraphing. However, I think Mazda Miata and Pontiac Firebird are easier targets. Now there is a big region of neutral territory due to razing Corvair, so we could quickly send an attack west. The big question is: Where and when will the majority of his army show up?

On a more strategic level, I'm concerned about this war. If Superdeath continues whipping his cities heavily, he has effectively more production than us, at least for a few more turns. In the long term, our production and technology advantages will overtake his praet, cat, and longbow spam.
I worry that even if we DO manage to eliminate Superdeath, we might end up financially crippled despite probably being #1 in land area, food, and production.

Since he is so technologically backwards and whipped so heavily, I'm confident Superdeath is not a contender for winning the game. However, now that I've pissed him off, he certainly does have the potential to prevent us from winning. 


Here is the city list:

Philosophical gives cheap universities, so I guess education would be good sometime soon. So if we get a second great scientist, he should probably bulb it. If we get a merchant, I think golden age. It's basically a 50/50 roll, in 3 more turns.

I traded Copper to Mjmd for free because he has none.
El Grillo and Plemo made peace. I'm increasingly worried that Plemo might show up with a couple East Indiaman full of knights on our coast. That's really hard to defend against.

[RefSteel]

No let-up in my schedule on the horizon that I can see, so I'll have to try sneaking in posts where I can. Like this!

I overextended with those knights. Lost all 5 knights in return for only 2 catapults killed on defense. Unfortunately, Aggressive Praets are still more relevant than I thought.

As long as the enemy has catapults, everything is relevant, but yeah, Agg Praets keep doing their thing (causing huge headaches for their neighbors while not actually helping to win the game) for a long time.

Suicided 2 cats taking it, because I really wanted to preserve the remaining Knights. We now have a severe Knight Shortage.

Definitely true, and I notice that several mature cities are not building them. Finishing the units we have queued makes sense (maybe even the trebs, but I'm not optimistic about their utility) but if this war continues, we need more Knights more than we need advanced infrastructure in our core....

Also took the city of Corvair and razed it. I razed because I don't want to deal with defending it to prevent its culture from re-expanding.

Probably the right move - and certainly the right thought process! The question isn't just whether we can take a given city, but what happens next if we do, so it's good to see that being taken into account!

The big question is: Where and when will the majority of his army show up?

You hopefully know more than I do about what he had on the other front and where that is, but generally: They'll show up when he's gathered enough of them that he thinks he can wipe our stack (or a mini-stack if we continue to split our forces) wherever the target he thinks he can wipe is hanging out. He has the defender's movement and visibility advantages, and he's a decent and opportunistic tactician, especially in situations where his enemy's unit counts are small.

On a more strategic level, I'm concerned about this war. If Superdeath continues whipping his cities heavily, he has effectively more production than us, at least for a few more turns.

True - especially when we have core cities building Grocers and Banks, because...

I worry that even if we DO manage to eliminate Superdeath, we might end up financially crippled despite probably being #1 in land area, food, and production.

...we can't afford to count these chickens when we're not even sure if the round things we've got are eggs. If we want to go all the way and eliminate superdeath in this war, we're going to need a lot more military, and rescuing our at-this-point-imaginary post-conquest economy will have to wait. If we try to ground superdeath down slowly, even if we do succeed, we're very unlikely to be first in anything by the time we do; Plemo (barring severe mistakes) is just going to keep pulling away - possibly at our expense, as you observed.

Philosophical gives cheap universities, so I guess education would be good sometime soon. So if we get a second great scientist, he should probably bulb it. If we get a merchant, I think golden age. It's basically a 50/50 roll, in 3 more turns.

That would definitely be good if we make peace with superdeath and go to work on our economy. Oxford in Enchilada would be great! If we're staying at war though ... I'd have to check the bulb values. Education is an optional prereq for Gunpowder, so it's possible it's worth picking it up along the way if a Scientist can bulb enough of it, but I'm skeptical, especially since we'd have to do some research to open up the bulb.

I'm increasingly worried that Plemo might show up with a couple East Indiaman full of knights on our coast. That's really hard to defend against.

It is indeed. We still have open borders with him, right? It would be good to have something (at least a workboat or another galley or two) checking for danger in key areas, but as long as we're at war with superdeath, I'm not sure we can spare the build queue turns to build the units in question. Also, I think I gave you bad advice along these lines with superdeath: When I suggested opening borders and letting him scout us so we could watch for his units too, I didn't realize we were going to be plotting war with him soon!

I'll note: If we can make this war with superdeath really pay, Courthouses are great to control costs, and once we've built enough, we can put the Forbidden Palace somewhere to help even more - either Gira's land if this turns into a limited war or superdeath's if we manage to conquer him. He has a lot of territory and is a tenacious and experienced fighter though. Taking him on will be a great learning experience no matter the outcome, and I doubt if we can beat Plemo under any circumstances from here - and I've not been able to spend enough time thinking about the game to really judge anyone's position, so take all that with a grain of salt. (For instance, Plemo might think we're a great trading partner who left his undefended island holdings alone for ages and who isn't, in his opinion, a threat to win, and that might give us the opening we need to improve our position and become threats to win. Or he might regard us as one of his chief rivals and boating our coast as a great way to ensure he wins. I have no idea!)

Good luck regardless! It is very clear that our civ's in a great position in spite of a lot of early problems, and that's extremely cool!