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WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

Alhambram, tell whoever is in the scum thread with you and is feeding you your posts to up their game please.
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(October 12th, 2020, 16:05)sunrise089 Wrote:
(October 12th, 2020, 15:51)Alhambram Wrote: Because Pindicator already switched and you couldn't help Meiz's vote to majority. You staying upon Kaiser's tally for long do remind me of end of day 3 when you also was hanging around and sitting upon Pindicator's tally.
You could potentially have helped Lewwyn by narrowing down difference between Lewwyn/Gaspar tally by 1 and hope that someone else got encouraged by it and lynch Gaspar instead Lewwyn, but you didn't do it, why? Especially considering that you were upon Gaspar at day 1 and you posted at day 2 post #778 that Gaspar is your no.1 lynch.

So...on D4 I had no reason to move to Meiz because pind had switched and so Meiz was safe. But on D3 I should have moved to Gaspar because someone may have switched even if he seemed safe?!?!

So what’s the non-scummy thing there bro? Just mislynching the villager?!

You don't answer me here, I didn't say that you should move to Gaspar. I ask why you didn't do it.
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(October 12th, 2020, 16:09)sunrise089 Wrote: Alhambram, tell whoever is in the scum thread with you and is feeding you your posts to up their game please.

I see only one quicktopic in my PM, ours neighbor quicktopic which you didn't posted any since day 3.
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(October 12th, 2020, 16:12)Alhambram Wrote:
(October 12th, 2020, 16:05)sunrise089 Wrote:
(October 12th, 2020, 15:51)Alhambram Wrote: Because Pindicator already switched and you couldn't help Meiz's vote to majority. You staying upon Kaiser's tally for long do remind me of end of day 3 when you also was hanging around and sitting upon Pindicator's tally.
You could potentially have helped Lewwyn by narrowing down difference between Lewwyn/Gaspar tally by 1 and hope that someone else got encouraged by it and lynch Gaspar instead Lewwyn, but you didn't do it, why? Especially considering that you were upon Gaspar at day 1 and you posted at day 2 post #778 that Gaspar is your no.1 lynch.

So...on D4 I had no reason to move to Meiz because pind had switched and so Meiz was safe. But on D3 I should have moved to Gaspar because someone may have switched even if he seemed safe?!?!

So what’s the non-scummy thing there bro? Just mislynching the villager?!

You don't answer me here, I didn't say that you should move to Gaspar. I ask why you didn't do it.

Nevermind you did answer at post #1709.
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Too bad man, now you can’t focus on that and ignore my own question.

Does a move to a second place vote-getter help the top vote getter or not?
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By the way if you’re town the scum thread has gotta be partying like it’s 1999.
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[Image: 2Zd6EQ.md.jpg]
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(October 12th, 2020, 16:20)sunrise089 Wrote: Too bad man, now you can’t focus on that and ignore my own question.

Does a move to a second place vote-getter help the top vote getter or not?

Interesting question because both yes and no are correct. If difference narrows to 1 vote difference as case at day 3, it might create a traction effect causing one of voter from top voter getter jump to former second place vote getter.
At other side, nothing might happen if vote narrows down because voter's at top or other places aren't interested to do move.

Either way, because you decided to not move at day 3, we won't know ever what would happen if you did.
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Ok enough for me, need to sleep and go work early tomorrow.
Tomorrow I comes back and see what here happen and answer questions of others here.
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Omar tracked Simp last night and got no result.  Sorry Omar didn't post the result when he glanced at the thread at lunch to see the kill (may you rest in peace Bee-Boy, you certainly did not get to play in peace this game).  Just forgot to check my PMs.  

Debated trying to track Bee-Boy again, but figured he would say who he targeted just before deadline again.  Debated holding the charge until the field was thinned further, but thought it was probably valuable enough to give it a shot at this point.  Also, figured if Omar did get a hit, the rest of you would be more likely to lynch the villain before the last chance, since if Omar was lying, you could just string me up after the mislynch and we would still have a shot to pull this out, whereas the last day, it would come down to a he said, she said without a recourse for us, so Omar figured the information if obtained was more valuable today.  Was going to track Talking Dog thinking he would have been a safe person to handle the night kill given his general acceptance as village all game, but then I saw Skelly's post before leaving for my 9-5 and thought villains might not consider him such a safe option any longer and switched to Simp.  At this point, I kind of assume one or the other is probably a villain since we are running out of options, and was basically agnostic at this point given recent developments.  Also, since I believe they are neighbors with near certainty, neither (presumably) had another ability they could blame the result on, so it seemed impossible to return a false positive on a kill in comparison to Robot who claims to have a charge left.

Omar jotted these revised figures down on his legal pad while listening to inconsequential prattle from self-important people today (the first was done in office on Saturday for an intended post Omar never had time for, and the second was done this afternoon) and represents my estimate of villain likelihood on Saturday and today respectively:

Old Tea Man:  5%-->3%
Bee Boy:  10%-->0%
Talking Dog: 20%-->40%
Simp:  35%-->40%
Jabbz:  45%-->40%
Jerry!:  45%-->100%
Doc:  40%-->22%
Skelly:  40%-->20%
Kaiser:  60%-->35%

Baseline on Saturday was 33.3% likelihood to be villain, so anyone above that Omar figured was more likely to be a villain than average.  Baseline today was 28.57% without Jerry! and Bee-Boy and one fewer villain, so anyone above that I figure is more likely to be a villain than average.  Everyone should have dropped around 5% in the interim, so if someone dropped by more than that, Omar feels better about them overall compared to Saturday, and if someone stayed the same (or increased), Omar feels worse overall about them compared to Saturday.  This is based almost solely on voting behavior since Omar has not dug into the thread in detail in a couple days.

I would tend to lean voting one of the neighbors, just not comfortable at all on which one without doing more than skimming the thread since around post 1,450.  Omar feel worse about Simp all game, but not real sure after Talking Dog's recent days and the tracker result.  Probably would have had it 50% Simp and 40% Talking Dog before the tracker result.

If I can catch up, I'll post updated thoughts tonight.  At this point, I would need Old Tea Man to come out and admit he is a villain before I would vote him.  I would need something pretty significant to happen to vote Doc or Skelly as well.  I would prefer to vote Jabbz or look for some clarity between Doh! and his HiDiddlyHoNeighborino.
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
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