WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

Pindicator's ability wouldn't stop the kill from going through, it would just kill Pindicator instead of the attempted target.

You're right, that was stupid of me. I blame 3:00am. Trying to frame me aside you're right that it makes sense to shoot at their real target as long as they prefer than target to pindicator to any degree, since the worst-case scenario is no worse than just shooting pindicator.

That said, I guess scum, even if not trying to frame me, could have made their choice based on likelihood of the seeming plethora of passive investigative roles we have. But that's too complicated to try to parse out this  late. Also, I know you won't buy this, but if I'm scum I probably shoot someone like Jabbz since I'd really want pindicator to stay alive.

[sunrise089]

Goodnight Meiz, I hope you are town. If you're scum this is such a $&@^ waste of time.

[Rowain]

Also Meiz, why is my townread of you binding when your scum read of pindicator DURING DAY 4 was so non-binding that you stated during N4 that I am scummy for my pindicator vote?

Pindicator had no reason to switch from me to Bob if he was scum. Therefore I realized he was probably town afterall.

Sunrise had no reason to vote Commodore early when a Gaspar vote would have made perfect sense. Therefore I realized...he bussed Commodore! Because only Meiz's targets are never bussed. 

sunrise you claim that your Commodore vote is a sign for your towniness but at the same time you ignore Gaspars stance vs commodore from day 1 and day2. You even say because he switched in the last few moments from day 1 from Comm to pindi as a 0 point. IMO this is a very lopsided view. If you take your Commodore vote as a townsign you can't at the same time claim that Gapars stance for Commodore was bussing and faulty.
Either it counts as town for both or as bussing for both.

To note everyone still in the game has voted Commodore on day 2.

[Kaiser]

sunrise whom do you see as scum if we lynch Gaspar and he shows scum. And whom do you consider scum if we lynch Gaspar and he shows town.

BTW the same question (with the name of your preferred target instead of Gaspar) goes to alhambram, Jabbz, Kaiser and Omar.

My preferred target right now is Gaspar:
- Gaspar Wolf -> Meiz, Alhambram, GES, Jabbz (in that order)
- Gaspar Town -> Gaspar voters today, Rowain, GES
Pindicator dying removed my only remaining strong town lean.
Sunrise is the most positive lean I have right now. However, at least to me, he is building it up today, as I think along the same lines and would have expected "Scumrise" to vote Bob or Meiz depending on the remaining wolves.
Maybe I am seeing the game to complicated or well executed by the wolves to believe that they missed strategizing about the vote developments and then fumbled on either bussing Bob or steering the lynch away from Bob.
I also think we need to be careful about committing on a one-neighbor scum theory, as this could set up mislycnhes ending the game for us.

[Rowain]

@sunrise

On day 2 you made a list with your top sum being: Nr 1 Gaspar Nr 4 commodore and voted Commodore (where Gaspar was already). A fact C called you out:

<"I find Gaspar incredibly scummy and he's my #1 lynch, so I'll join him here on the target he's sat on for the last hundred hours.">

Here you respond

@Commodore - I’m here and catching up, just read 800. I did not want to go the entire day cycle without voting, I don’t think that’s helpful for people during the...ugh four hours...I was asleep. The latest tally post I could find had no votes on Gaspar so I voted for the person I found scummiest with any voting support to speak of.

So you don't want to vote for someone with no support and prefer to pile on.- that is ok

But on day 3 when your Nr 1 is on the menu : you prefer to stay on pindi and not switch. And you were online close to the lynch you could have switched and gotten rid of Gaspar. 20 minutes before lynch you even asked :

Lewwyn, what would be your next vote if Gaspar flipped town? Scum?

pindicator, same question please.

At that time it was 6 Lewwyn 4 Gaspar as pindi had switched to Gaspar then. This last 20 minutes you made banter, told Lewwyn how sorry you are if he is town and when I asked you for you day 3 you say:  

Day 3 I don’t know what to tell you - again there was only a tiny window where there was a real push on Gaspar. I didn’t like Gaspar or pindicator and so I stayed where I was.

So you stayed on your 2 vote pindi instead of moving to your Nr 1- wolf Gaspar because? For me this reads as "I wanted to make sure the Lewwyn lynch goes through" and nothing else.

On day 4 it is : I don't want to make a decision between Bob and Meiz so I create my own single Vote-candidate. Quite contrary to your day 2 reasoning

You can pack as much sarcasm in your posts as you like but this is scummy.
Where I not such a trusting man I would even think that you and Gaspar both are wolves playing a deep hiding game here.

[Rowain]

Again day 3 (highlights in the following quotes by me)

sunrise asks pindi what his target are if Gaspar flip town/scum

Lewwyn, what would be your next vote if Gaspar flipped town? Scum?

pindicator, same question please.

pindi answers

Sunrise, I think Bob would be the next person I want to look at.  He has been pushing the whole WarriorKnight voters campaign pretty hard with little other direction in his scum hunting.

The reaction from sunrise is interesting.

Thanks for answering. I am surprised you’d pick Bob irrespective of Lewwyn flip result.

pindi:

So with Lewwyn and Cyneheard going at each other today then at most we have 1 scum on WarriorKnight day 2.  Bob was one of the people pushing the theory.  Perhaps scum knew they wouldn't even have to say anything, that town would naturally want to go after the WarriorKnight voters?  But Bob wasn't on Commodore and he wasn't on WarriorKnight either.

sunrise reaction:

But I guess you’re just not seeing what I’m seeing on pindicator. I really think he lied throughout the entire dolphin speech series of posts I quoted. I don’t like saying he lied since pind has been friendly and collegial in most of our exchanges, but he said he couldn’t parse that language when I think he could, he told novice he’d figured it out at an earlier point than he really did, he said he’d answered the question about it when he hadn’t, he doubled-down on that to me and attacked me for it, and then just last night he tried to explain by calling back to an earlier novice post which didn’t actually exist.  

And, that Bob answer by him relight above is lousy IMHO.

So sunrise didn't like pindi. and he absolutly didn't like pindis push on Bob. He hated it so much that when pindi asked him explicitely

Sunrise, come join on Gaspar.  If you see one person vote onto me then hop back on me and know I'll join you.

He ignored it. Mind you Gaspar was sunrise Nr1 wolf  and apparently still is.

[Rowain]

@Kaiser Fascinating that you would go after Gaspar voters if Gaspar is lynched and town but totally ignore that some people lynched a wolf yesterday.

Why don't you go after not-bob voters? Ah right you are one of them - the same you that spent day 2 telling me how wrong it is to lynch commodore ( another wolf).

[Meiz]

Omar tracked Simp last night and got no result.  Sorry Omar didn't post the result when he glanced at the thread at lunch to see the kill (may you rest in peace Bee-Boy, you certainly did not get to play in peace this game).  Just forgot to check my PMs.  

Debated trying to track Bee-Boy again, but figured he would say who he targeted just before deadline again.  Debated holding the charge until the field was thinned further, but thought it was probably valuable enough to give it a shot at this point.  Also, figured if Omar did get a hit, the rest of you would be more likely to lynch the villain before the last chance, since if Omar was lying, you could just string me up after the mislynch and we would still have a shot to pull this out, whereas the last day, it would come down to a he said, she said without a recourse for us, so Omar figured the information if obtained was more valuable today.  Was going to track Talking Dog thinking he would have been a safe person to handle the night kill given his general acceptance as village all game, but then I saw Skelly's post before leaving for my 9-5 and thought villains might not consider him such a safe option any longer and switched to Simp.  At this point, I kind of assume one or the other is probably a villain since we are running out of options, and was basically agnostic at this point given recent developments.  Also, since I believe they are neighbors with near certainty, neither (presumably) had another ability they could blame the result on, so it seemed impossible to return a false positive on a kill in comparison to Robot who claims to have a charge left.

I'm not sure if it was a good play or not, but I was hoping you taking a 50/50 shot on the two players I found most suspicious (sunrise/jabbz) and that's why I posted my thoughs well before deadline. Alhambram not performing a night kill is at least small point in his favor.

On gaspar's role, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755618
At least the RP flavor makes sense to me, not being the obvious town doc but providing junkie pills to the bodyguard(?).

And about avoiding question, I felt strange in beginning of day 4 that Meiz said that he did only reread day 1 and 2 and concluded that Gaspar is town while he didn't yet reread day 3 yet where he did critize Gaspar.

Big part of it was time limits, another part was Lewwyn as town, while my suspicion on Gaspar based heavily on him being Lewwyn's scum partner.

[Gaspar]

I don't have time to discuss much right now but in the interest of helping sunrise/Kaiser/whomever else in case they are town for their case on me...

I get you have to explore every angle, but if I simply sit out the end of day yesterday, there's an overwhelming chance Bob lives. If I am scum, the only scenario where my play makes sense is Meiz or Kaiser are my scum buddy... does that make any sense at all to anyone?

Meiz deserves the most credit for the Bob lynch, but Rowain and I moving are what allow it to become a thing.

On sunrise's flurry of defense posts - I like the effort but tbh I can't get past the voting record spreadsheet, which was so scummy the whole thing should have been done on with flashing red lights on it. There's a huge difference in a vote which hangs someone and a pile on vote at the end. Or treating Thrawn like equivalent scum to the actual villains. Or ignoring what the players have done and said around those votes.

[Meiz]

Maybe I am seeing the game to complicated or well executed by the wolves to believe that they missed strategizing about the vote developments and then fumbled on either bussing Bob or steering the lynch away from Bob.

It seems clear that Bob was not online anymore (like in previosu EOD's as well), and I'm confident one wolf was already voting for me. And with votes being tied, sunrise's hesitance to seal the deal for Bob & save me seems scummy behavior to me.