Ok, well this is interesting. Gavagai has kept moving units up, but into a position where immediate attack looks unlikely, but general attack still seems the plan. It's not what I was expecting.
I figured everything would be on the forest tile 1SW of the copper (the main reason I wanted to take Lenin way back when), where it forks Regret and Heaven perfectly. Apparently not. So perhaps Gavagai isn't planning to attack, although that makes holding the turn weird. I didn't declare and offer Fortune500, since it looks like that will get at least one more turn to live. If he declares, I can always offer it next turn.
If Gavagai isn't attacking this turn, it sure looks like he's going to in the near future. That's pretty much all of his power on our border, in a nasty forking spot. But he's giving me time, so I'm using it. I put nearly every city back on wealth this turn, where I can just research HBR (those three islands might save the game yet). That will be of pretty enormous use if/when the attack does come. And the thing is, Gavagai should know that if he wants to attack, giving me time to prepare is the worst thing he could do.
Which begs the question: what exactly is Gavagai playing at? I think there are four options:
1) He is planning to declare war, and completely bungled his unit moves. This seems unlikely.
2) He is planning to declare war, but is waiting a short time.
3) He's planning to declare war, but only take Fortune 500.
4) He is not planning to declare war, and is instead trying to keep the pressure up and slow me down with unit builds as opposed to buildings/wealth.
Options 2 or 3 seem the most likely. If Gavagai is doing 4, then there's not much I can do other than adequately prepare. It's a good play, and I like it.
It doesn't seem super likely either though - Gavagai is still cranking out units nonstop, and the clock games would be very weird. If it's option 2, that begs its own question: what is Gavagai waiting for? Time is on my side, with more cities, a better economy (it might be 5th in the game, but at least Gavagai is 6th!), and a golden age. Even more importantly, I can build catapults and (I'm pretty sure) he can't. Gavagai knows that, so he'd have to be waiting for something big. My best (well, my only) guess would be that Naufragar might also join. I guess we'll just deal with that if it happens - I'd MUCH rather them both attack me, because at least then I have a chance to slow Naufragar down. Option 3 is the best of the bunch, would make me very happy (hard to believe I'm happy about being only 'somewhat' attacked 
). Some of these also give Gavagai a reason other than 'kingmaking' to be doing this, which would be a mental boost.
If Gavagai does attack and try to take/raze more than Fortune 500, the game is likely Nauf's. I can't win without the luxuries at Get To Heaven, and I certainly can't win if I have to whip everything in my GA to prevent razes. At that point, I whip to the ground and see how much damage we can really do. The weird thing is, I kind of want Gavagai to do exactly that; at least then I'd lose the stress that this game's become. Which has me thinking more about the nature of Pitboss, and what my place in it is again, after somewhat forgetting about that during my more recent games. More on that at some point, maybe - it'd need it's own post.
I figured everything would be on the forest tile 1SW of the copper (the main reason I wanted to take Lenin way back when), where it forks Regret and Heaven perfectly. Apparently not. So perhaps Gavagai isn't planning to attack, although that makes holding the turn weird. I didn't declare and offer Fortune500, since it looks like that will get at least one more turn to live. If he declares, I can always offer it next turn.
If Gavagai isn't attacking this turn, it sure looks like he's going to in the near future. That's pretty much all of his power on our border, in a nasty forking spot. But he's giving me time, so I'm using it. I put nearly every city back on wealth this turn, where I can just research HBR (those three islands might save the game yet). That will be of pretty enormous use if/when the attack does come. And the thing is, Gavagai should know that if he wants to attack, giving me time to prepare is the worst thing he could do.
Which begs the question: what exactly is Gavagai playing at? I think there are four options:
1) He is planning to declare war, and completely bungled his unit moves. This seems unlikely.
2) He is planning to declare war, but is waiting a short time.
3) He's planning to declare war, but only take Fortune 500.
4) He is not planning to declare war, and is instead trying to keep the pressure up and slow me down with unit builds as opposed to buildings/wealth.
Options 2 or 3 seem the most likely. If Gavagai is doing 4, then there's not much I can do other than adequately prepare. It's a good play, and I like it.
It doesn't seem super likely either though - Gavagai is still cranking out units nonstop, and the clock games would be very weird. If it's option 2, that begs its own question: what is Gavagai waiting for? Time is on my side, with more cities, a better economy (it might be 5th in the game, but at least Gavagai is 6th!), and a golden age. Even more importantly, I can build catapults and (I'm pretty sure) he can't. Gavagai knows that, so he'd have to be waiting for something big. My best (well, my only) guess would be that Naufragar might also join. I guess we'll just deal with that if it happens - I'd MUCH rather them both attack me, because at least then I have a chance to slow Naufragar down. Option 3 is the best of the bunch, would make me very happy (hard to believe I'm happy about being only 'somewhat' attacked ). Some of these also give Gavagai a reason other than 'kingmaking' to be doing this, which would be a mental boost. If Gavagai does attack and try to take/raze more than Fortune 500, the game is likely Nauf's. I can't win without the luxuries at Get To Heaven, and I certainly can't win if I have to whip everything in my GA to prevent razes. At that point, I whip to the ground and see how much damage we can really do. The weird thing is, I kind of want Gavagai to do exactly that; at least then I'd lose the stress that this game's become. Which has me thinking more about the nature of Pitboss, and what my place in it is again, after somewhat forgetting about that during my more recent games. More on that at some point, maybe - it'd need it's own post.
Don't worry, I'm still looking forward to PB66! And hey, since this comment also cheered me up, here's a report:
It's very different to attacking, that's for sure. To a point, my streak of poor luck continues (first Gavagai's attack, then Naufragar lost less catapults than expected). But mostly, the issue is the type of units I've been whipping - too many catapults and not enough not-catapults. It's been a good lesson, I already feel that I'd do much better were this to be replayed, or were I to die in some other game in the future. 
), the odds would be zero and he would be in deep shit here. I am clinging on to the fallacy that being so unlucky earlier makes me more likely to get lucky now. 
), and he landed two horse units on the island. I had a spear which was able to kill the HA, and my axe cleaned up the chariot. At least something is going right.