Chevalier Plays AGEOD Let's Play/AAR

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

So Germany’s following the Schlieffen Plan, but ahistorically under-resourcing the Eastern Front to try and score the knockout blow that they didn’t have in RL?

That makes a ton of sense with the hindsight of history.

Possibly. A lot of the Eastern Front plays out ahistorically due to an incredibly powerful German event card representing the Battle of Tannenberg - if a Russian unit sets foot on Prussian soil, the German player can freeze them in place for a turn and dramatically lower their cohesion (which, recall, directly affects fighting power), then rail a bunch of German units to shatter them. The result is that in lots of MP games the German-Russian border becomes deserted as the Russians focus all their efforts on Galicia and the Central Powers either send Germans to reinforce there or focus on France. It's an irritating mechanic, to be sure, but one you have to work around.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

August 15 - 31, 1914

The last two weeks of August pass, and the situation is getting worse for the Allies.

On August 20th, for reasons incomprehensible to General Headquarters in Sedan, General Ruffey leads Third Army in an attack on Metz fortress! Outnumbered 3:1, the French are predictably driven back in bloody slaughter:




I definitely didn’t order a move to Metz last turn, as you can verify by glancing at my post above, so I’m not sure what happened here. The Germans DO scoot out of Briey before I arrive - perhaps Ruffey was overzealous in pursuing them?

A week later, the Germans cross  the French frontier at Mauberge and defeat the defending army there, although this battle is less lopsided than Metz:




The resulting situation is serious but not catastrophic for France. The left flank sees German cavalry patrols on the outskirts of Paris, while von Kluck’s First Army is moving south after it. The center sees gathering German armies around our lodgment in Luxemberg, and there’s a minor German thrust on the right. Here is the Western Front on September 1:




I’m a bit worried about the gathering weight opposite my center, as the fall of Liege releases two German armies which move south to block any move I might make to the north. It’s also possible von Kluck will try to swing 1st Army into my rear, moving southeast in the direction of Reims. However, I think the situation is promising. The German flank towards Belgium is wide open, and the BEF is gathered at Lille in greater strength than First Army. I also have two corps forming up at Paris to hold the city itself, and I don’t think the Germans can get there in two weeks. The Belgian army is reforming and I have Fourth Army and Joffre’s General Reserve available at Sedan. My intention is to strike towards Douai and Mauberge using the railroads, attempting to sever von Kluck’s line of retreat and isolate him in France.



Counter-attack planned at Mauberge.

In the center, Second Army will reinforce First Army via rail in the Ardennes, hoping to catch the Germans by surprise with the sudden reinforcement. I do want to gradually fall back here to shorten the line.



Attempt to isolate Nancy

To the south, the probe towards Nancy is interesting - only two corps in strength. I’m not sure if it’s a diversion or just a probing attack, but I hope to do the same here. The forming Fifth Army is ordered to rail to Nancy, while other forces strike out of the Vosges to sever their line of retreat. I don’t expect all these attacks to work, but if I can isolate one or the other flank while bloodying his nose in the center then the German plan of campaign should be seriously discomfited.

At sea, I finish reorganizing my fleets and put the blockade in place:




Here’s how the blockade works. Every single country has a rebel alignment - usually at 0%, but it grows as you suffer defeats and economic hardship due to the war takes its toll. If your rebel alignment gets high enough, it will start to threaten to tip your country into revolution and take you out of the war entirely (the war only ends when Germany or France surrender - other powers will drop out but the war can continue). The blockade is a mechanic to drive up the CP’s rebel alignment. Every turn, there’s a 4% chance per individual warship in the two blockade boxes (Atlantic & Mediterranean) to tick up the blockade level. The blockade level moves (through hundreds of individual increments) through 4 major levels. At level 1, it actually improves the Central Powers’ alignment due to outrage over the blockade, but from level 2 to level 4 it begins to drive up rebel alignment by 1% per turn, then by increasing amounts. A level 4 blockade is a rapid death sentence for the Central Powers, but it takes time to get there.

So, I have split out my old pre-dreadnought battleships, with a screen of cruisers and destroyers, to fill the blockade boxes and get that timer ticking. My ships lose cohesion and morale as they steam back and forth, so the dreadnoughts and battlecruisers in the Grand Fleet won’t be on blockade duty. Instead they post nearby to intercept the High Seas Fleet if it comes out to contest the blockade. I will rotate ships steadily through the blockade to maintain cohesion, in general. The German player will wait to see if I slip up, and then he’ll attempt to pounce with his own fleet and equalize things. So it’s long, wearying, tedious work, but it must be done.

Overall situation - bloody battles on the Eastern Front as the Russians invade East Prussia and Germany strikes back. Our losses are equal to the CP, but there are now 80,000 dead Russians, too - some disastrous battles must be raging in Poland and Galicia (I have no visibility there, just what the Eastern Entente player tells me).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

September 1-15, 1914: The Miracle of Mauberge?

Furious fighting all across the front over the last two weeks, including a battle that the German player said “may have saved Paris.” Here’s the update from the front, gentlemen of the War Council.

At the start of the month, there are furious battles between the French 1st & 2nd Armies and the German 2nd and 3rd Armies at Neufchateau, in the southeastern corner of Belgium. Three days of bloody combat sees the French eventually drive the Germans from the province, albeit at heavy cost:








We lose 96,000 men to only 55,000 Germans. The only consolation is that the German soldiers are better than ours, and harder to replace, and we hold the territory at the end of the day - therefore It Was A Glorious Victory.

General Bulow disengages his Second Army from the battle by the third day and is marching on Dinant, where he strikes General Joffre’s General Reserves in the flank. There is a bloody draw in Dinant:




30,000 more dead Frenchmen, 26,000 more dead Germans. Although these are possible total casualties, in which case I DIDN’T just send 100,000 husbands and fathers to their graves? We at Supreme Command can but hope.

At the same time the Battles of Neufchateau and Dinant are raging in the center, at the southern end of the line our operation to relieve Nancy goes about as expected. First, Pau’s Fifth Army ejects the German corps from its siege lines at Nancy:




A follow-up battle in the Valley of the Moselle sees Crown Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria lead a massive relieving force, salvaging most - but not all - of the survivors:




Finally, an isolated cavalry corps left behind at Nancy in the chaotic German retreat is pursued by Pau:



57,000 more French casualties and 40,000 more Germans, but the bulge at Nancy is eliminated and our defensive line here is in place.

The decisive battle of the turn, though, is fought at Douai on September 7. von Kluck’s First Army attempts to move west from Mauberge towards Lille, to seize the important railway junction there and open the way south. von Bulow’s Second Army was meant to be in support but the savage French attacks around Neufchateau pin him down for a crucial 3 days. So, First Army advances alone.

Dug in on the far side of the canal is John French’s small British Expeditionary Force. French, a Boer War veteran, like most of the British officer corps, is fanatical about the power of well-aimed, rapid rifle fire to decimate attacking formations (can’t imagine why). The BEF is small but are the best trained soldiers in Europe, and as the Heer comes on they show why:




von Kluck’s army is shredded in the most lopsided battle of the war thus far, as he loses 60% of his men as casualties. French loses 25% of his own smaller force, but the road is firmly blocked, and behind von Kluck French reinforcements are flooding into the unconquered forts of Mauberge, cutting his own retreat towards Belgium. First Army now finds itself on a limb - battered, disorganized, and cut off in France.

The Western Front, 15 September 1914:


The front from Nancy to Sedan seems stable, especially since I am withdrawing from the Luxemburg - Neufchateau salient (no way to push north to cut Germany’s rail lines from there). Both sides are rushing along the Sambre towards Doaui to reinforce the lines there, me to keep the First Army isolated, Germany to relieve the force.

In particular, First Army is in a fair bit of danger. I have a real opportunity here:


Most of the combat divisions are shells of themselves, and the main combat power of the force lies in its support and supply units. If I can destroy or maim this force, knocking out elements, I can put a serious dent in Germany’s fighting power for the autumn.

The moves are pretty simple. I have a reserve corps of the BEF not committed yet - they will be rushed to Douai to reinforce French. Meanwhile, Joffre will move 4th Army and the general reserves towards Mauberge to block von Bulow moving to reinforce from the east. That weakens my center near Sedan, and First and Second Armies are badly battered anyway, so they will be withdrawn and put into line there. Finally, I don’t anticipate an offensive into Lorraine right now as Germany tries to save von Kluck, so I will rail Fifth Army from Nancy all the way to Douai to join the fight there. Here are the resulting orders:



I expect Germany will try to fight his way back out, but that means he’s moving away from Paris. We might also see him attempt to hit First and Second armies in the center, or even cut them off, but I’ve already ordered the retreat there, nothing more I can do.

No help can be expected from Russia. Glancing at the map shows certain territories flipping in Russian Poland and in Galicia, although no major cities have changed hands, but the casualty figures are grim reading:




We lost 200,000 men in the previous two weeks, the Germans 230,000, and the Russians 44,000. We inflicted about 200,000 of those losses on Germany, so the Russians accounted for 30,000 of their own. Skirmishes compared to the titanic battles on our front! However, I think the current trends are in our favor - I’m waiting for Germany’s other shoe to drop now…

[shallow_thought]

Just think of the Civ IV power graphs ... ugh. Nicely done though; if Paris doesn't fall, history is probably on your side.

How easy is it for you to mix the BEF into your force? How does the game represent the difficulties that occurred in real life?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Just think of the Civ IV power graphs ... ugh. Nicely done though; if Paris doesn't fall, history is probably on your side.

How easy is it for you to mix the BEF into your force? How does the game represent the difficulties that occurred in real life?

Each stack requires adequate command points to actually manage it in battle, with massive penalties to cohesion, firepower, and etc if you exceed your command points. For reference, a division typically needs 6 command points to operate effectively, a corps (which can be made of 2 divisions of 2 brigades and an artillery regiment each + 2 artillery regiments, up to 8 individual elements in a single corps) will cost 12 (thus a corps is more command-efficient than an equivalent amount of 'loose' combat units), and an army led by a 3-star general will usually have about 50 command points or so, so you can pack in 4 corps and some supporting units and general reserves. 

However, if a nationality isn't led by a commander from the same nation (or who has a trait to command foreign troops, ie some British leaders have special traits to let them effectively lead Indian troops), then their units cost double or I think even quadruple the amount of command points. So it CAN be done, in a pinch, but often at large costs to your unit cohesion as the British struggle to adopt to French practices and a general barking orders in a language the troops don't speak. This is a bigger issue for the Central Powers, often, as their best commanders are usually German but the Austro-Hungarians recruit troops from a dozen different nationalities and have a tough time getting the right commanders in place.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

September 15 - 30, 1914 Situation Report

After the bloody battle of Dinant, the situation stabilizes somewhat over the last three weeks of September. von Kluck, cut off from moving west around Mauberge, attempts to move the remnants of his army through the fortress system, but bogs down amidst the French fortifications. von Bulow’s Second Army is at Brussels, with corps near Charleroi. In the Ardennes - Luxembourg sector, fighting dies down as the two French armies wearily pull back to their start lines. Meanwhile more British reinforcements hurry off the boats at Boulougne and Calais and rail to join French’s army at Dinant. The resulting situation on 1 October:




Assessments of September are optimistic in Allied Supreme Headquarters in Paris. The Luxemberg offensive did not drive to the Rhine, as early planners hoped, but that went out the window as soon as the Germans launched all their might at Belgium. But in our opinion, the Schlieffen Plan has failed, dismally. The German First Army is a hollow shell (see how rapidly its strength [red], cohesion [blue], and supply [green] bars are dwindling?) and its complete destruction is still a distinct possibility. We succeeded in raising massive reserves of militia at Paris and in Britain and those reinforcements are now reaching our right wing in a massive flood. We believe there is now no prospect of a successful German invasion of France, at least via Belgium, this autumn.

The Central Powers didn’t commit to the offensive strongly enough. Second and Third Armies never moved beyond Liege and Brussels, and the rest of the front from Sedan to Colmar was largely quiet, apart from the corps-sized attack at Nancy. Germany did concentrate to seal off my Ardennes push - I think that caused great concern that pushing his neck too far into Belgium would see it chopped off, and that’s why only First Army and a supporting cavalry corps actually moved beyond Brussels. Our spies have long known that von Moltke never really supported Schlieffen’s scheme wholeheartedly, and he may have sabotaged the execution of it.

Anyway, we’ve identified a VERY weak First Army (scarcely 1.5 divisions in strength now - maybe 40,000 men left in the ranks, plus a mass of stragglers?) isolated at Mauberge, while Second Army and a few German corps have been spotted around Brussels and Charleroi. Von Moltke himself has been spotted in Bastogne, which is tentatively identified as German headquarters. Antwerp hasn’t surrendered yet, and I have about two fresh armies forming up around Paris and Boulougne as British and French reserves mobilize. I’ve spent all my early funds either on replacements or on militia divisions and light artillery regiments, which can be formed into corps as little as 4 weeks after ordering them to be raised. Real infantry and medium artillery, as well as fresh aeroplane squadrons, ships, support units, etc, can wait until winter. The result is my strength on the frontline seems to be growing faster than Germany’s.

My intention now is to launch a counteroffensive, with the objectives as follow:

1. To complete the destruction of First Army
   
2. Stabilizing a frontline from Ghent to Mauberge in Belgium
   
3. Bloodying and blunting the tip of the German spear in Belgium.
   

If this is accomplished, the immediate crisis and first campaign will be over and we can begin planning how we’re going to win the war. Here’s what the orders look like once entered:




First, the BEF - including fresh forces from England, now disembarking at Boulougne - will move north towards the line Mons - Alost - Ghent, to form my leftmost flank. Holding Ghent in particular is important, as it is my last location to recruit Belgian units. All told, I have about 300,000 British soldiers available, and Kitchener himself is moving from London to the Continent so I can properly organize this mass into several armies.

Second, the mass of French reinforcements around Paris, Dinant, and Sedan will organize itself into three armies along the line Mauberge - Sedan. We have about 500,000 men here. We anticipate a German thrust from Charleroi to Mauberge as Second Army attempts to relieve First Army. With luck, our defenses will hold entirely and we can finish off von Kluck, but at the very least we hope to give the Germans a good mauling.

Subsidiary operations include a force going in pursuit of the German cavalry corps raiding around Paris, completing Second Army’s pullout from the Ardennes (First Army arrived in its lines on 30 September and is beginning to rest, recover, and dig in), pulling behind the Moselle along the right flank, and shoring up the line near the Vosges. We think a German offensive from Charleroi is their most probable course of action, but we might see an attack in the center from Luxemberg -> Longwy (following up on battered First & Second Army), an attack on the right from Metz or Mulhausen at Nancy, or any combination of the three. We estimate an attack on the center or right would have limited success, but it doesn’t pose a mortal danger and we have reserves to meet offensives in those sectors.

Overseas, the Asia theater sees a bit of activity. ANZAC troops go ashore in New Britain and seize the port of Finschhafen, raising the Entente flag over the Solomons:




Admiral von Spee leads his East Asia Squadron out of the harbor a few days before the Aussies arrive, where he had been skulking since the outbreak of war, and he flees into the wastes of the Pacific. He has five cruisers with him, including the deadly Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, a match for the most modern Entente vessels. However, they are outranged and outgunned by the Australia, a battlecruiser which we have dispatched in pursuit. Hopefully we run him down over the winter and, um, do better than the historical result (more on that in a few weeks).

To the north, the German colony at Qingdao is besieged by a large Japanese force, as Nippon honors her treaty of alliance with Britain and joins the war. It’s a large army and the fall of the colony is only a matter of time, but there’s not really anything of grave strategic importance out here. The Japanese emperor refuses to allow his troops to deploy to Europe, and Germany was gaining no advantage from Qingdao anyway in the face of the Allied blockade, so this is a pure sideshow. Makes us feel better, though.

So, that’s the situation. If you’re interested, here’s a few more detailed intelligence summaries of the Western Front formations we’ve identified.

For example, look at the strength and composition of First Army. No corps identified, just loose reserve divisions and support units, with almost no combat power left, even compared with mid-September:



The force at Charleroi is a single corps, identified as IX Corps (Corps are 12 command points each):



Why isn’t Second Army or Third Army here? Will he attack with just a single corps to save his isolated force?

Second Army is identified at Namur, consisting of 1 Guard Corps and 5 supporting divisions, not organized in a corps yet, and support units:



That’s so far to the rear that I can only assume he was worried about his communications due to my Ardennes - Luxemburg offensive and pulled Second Army out of the attack to defend.

Objectives screen. Germany and Russia lose 7,000 men in skirmishes on the Eastern Front, while the Western Entente improbably loses not a single trooper since mid-September!



Note that even though there were scarcely any losses suffered, Germany’s power ratio to us dropped from 1.48 to 1.4, nearly 20% of his advantage in numbers gone in two weeks. That’s the frantic militia recruiting I’ve been doing paying off. Those men won’t be great on the attack, but they look formidable and can hold the line, freeing my regulars up for offensives. If things continue at this rate (which they won’t, but it’s nice to dream) we’ll have numerical parity with the Central Powers overall by January 1915. At the very least we hope to outnumber them on the Western Front by that time! The Tsar has promised me that his Austrian offensive will begin soon!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

October 1 - 15: Germany’s Second Effort

With the defeat of their Belgian campaign, the Germans seem to have spent late September regrouping, and are now probing along the front in an effort to find a weakness in the French defenses. The major news is a large attack in the center at Longwy, possibly the prelude to a full-scale offensive, and renewal of the efforts on the far right as a German army presses up to besiege Epinal near the Swiss border. I’ve stripped my right to reinforce the left, and my own center is still somewhat weakened from the early September battles in the Ardennes, so the Germans meet some success.



On 15 October, von Wuttermberg flings his 370,000 men forward against 250,000 French defenders of Second Army near Longwy. The French lose 30,000, the Germans 20,000, and Gallieni pulls back from Longwy after a day of hard fighting. I note that the German corps have much more medium artillery than I do - most French artillery thus far is light models, so even though we about match the Germans in total guns they still throw more weight of firepower than we do, which is likely the difference in this battle. Medium guns are obviously on my wish list, but first I wanted to get as many formations into the field as possible, with the benefits showing in Belgium I feel.

The German thrust at Epinal is unopposed by field forces as the troops there hunker down into their fortress - the field army is at Mauberge now. But we do catch up to the German cavalry corps near Versailles. The palace of King Louis is saved from looting and burning as militia divisions converge from Paris and Orleans to drive the Teutonic raiders off:




It does report much heavier losses for me than the Germans, but if you look at total hits inflicted you’ll see the advantage was with France here, 17 hits to 4 for the Germans. However, cavalry elements are much smaller, so the “total men” lost from each hit is comparatively tiny. Peeking fully under AGEOD’s hood, the numbers of men/horses/guns ‘lost’ in each battle is purely aesthetic. The only numbers that matter are the total hits a unit has and hte hits lost. So, you can see (listed under the unit card in the detailed screen above) that the cavalry corps is divided into 45 hitpoints, and they lost 17 of those, or over a third of their effective strength (they also lost 143 of their 373 total cohesion points, or how organized the unit is, again roughly a third). By contrast, the two infantry corps that converged at Versailles had 170 hits between them, and they lost 4 of those (all from 1 corps - AGEOD’s battle system would only allow the single enemy unit to target 1 of my 2 units, so the casualties were always going to be concentrated this way). So, we suffered less than 2% losses. Just a quirk of the battle system that it represents it as a heroic stand by the cavalry, inflicting double their losses on vastly superior numbers, when in reality they lost over 4x as many.

Anyway, deep dive into the battle results aside, here’s the left and center of the front as of 15 October:



Interestingly, no effort was made to relieve von Kluck at Maubeuge. In fact, he’s digging in at Charleroi and Brussels while II Army besieges Namur. It feels to me like the German right wing is hanging in the air, so to speak, with a large gap between the corps around Brussels and the corps besieging Antwerp to the north.

So, do I reinforce my center, which is under some pressure (do note that I am badly outnumbered in the Luxemberg - Thionville - Metz sector), or do I think about a counteroffensive against the weak German right before winter sets in? I think I sense opportunity, and plan an aggressive response. Here’s the full situation in Belgium:




I have about 1000 power’s worth of British troops available, including two full corps with Lord Kitchener at Portsmouth, and about 1500 French and Belgian power, too, against possibly 1500 German power. Moreover, Antwerp is still holding out and would be an extremely useful base to hold. The main railroads to the west run either through Antwerp or through Namur and Dinant, supporting the German positions at Brussels and Charleroi. So, I order Kitchener to sail not for Boulougne, but for Antwerp instead. I’ll insert his two corps directly into the defenses from the harbor, hopefully before the fortress surrenders (the orange 2 marker near Antwerp signifies 2 breaches in the forts, and Antwerp has a fort level of 2. A fortress may surrender when the number of breaches = level of the fort, so it’s a dice roll from here). The rest of the BEF and forming Belgian army will roll forward to Mechelen-Alost, poised to flank Brussels to the north.

Meanwhile, Joffre’s powerful 500-power General Reserve will move north to Dinant, where there are no entrenched Germans - any battle here would be a meeting engagement. If I hold Dinant and Antwerp, the Germans at Charleroi, Brussels (and obviously poor 1 Armee at Maubeuge) will have no direct rail connection to Germany. Holding these “shoulder” positions could force them back as far as Liege and Namur, liberating Brussels and its valuable artillery factories, letting me recruit full-blown Belgian infantry divisions and artillery regiments, instead of mere militia at Genth as I’m presently limited to.

So, my orders go out. We continue to firm up the line on our left, gradually shuttling more and more French reserves back towards the center. The Belgian and British armies will form our own left flank, hopefully anchored on Antwerp and the sea by 1 November:



We will continue our pursuit of the cavalry corps until it’s finished off, as well as sending Sixth Army at I Armee. Then I can rail 5 & 6 armies from their present positions on the left back over to the right and seal off the Epinal probe.

With that done, let’s take a small detour to the sea war. Here’s my fleets enforcing the blockade of Germany:



The blockading fleet (labeled Channel Fleet from its original purpose) consists of 34 units, including 6 admirals (because why not) floating in the blockade box between Scapa Flow and Norway. It’s mostly old battleships and armored cruisers, with a screen of light cruisers and destroyers. None of these ships are fit for a modern line of battle, due to their low speeds, the poor range of their guns, and their weaker armor. But to be on blockade causes wear and tear, so we want to keep the Grand Fleet out of harm’s way. So, I’ve stationed the Grand Fleet, with all the modern dreadnoughts and battlecruisers, at Scapa Flow, while this fleet blockades. It COULD be attacked by the High Seas Fleet, but I’m periodically trawling with the Grand Fleet in an unpredictable pattern to keep the German admirals guessing.

Note that it’s 34 units, not ships. Like land units, our warships are organized into units that all fight together, not individual ships. For example, here’s one unit of old battleships:



Battleship Squadron 14 consists of 4 old pre-dreadnoughts: the HMS Ocean, the HMS Glory, the HMS Canopus, and the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Albion_(1898)]HMS Albion[/url].Similarly, our cruisers operate in squadrons, our destroyers in flotillas, etc.

The German High Seas fleet is present with its historical order of battle, as well, and the Austrian fleet, the French fleet, etc. I keep tabs on them using our submarines:




I spot 5 fleets in Wilhemshaven, plus 1 more each in Cuxhaven and Kiel. I can see the names and make guesses about them, but I’ve got no information on strength or composition, really. I rotate the subs every two weeks, taking care to avoid the ferocious sea mines around the Hun harbors.

In the Mediterranean, the French fleet, which I have based at Malta, does the same and has spotted the Imperial & Royal Navy at its base in Pola:



So far the CP player hasn’t been too aggressive with his fleets, but it is one of the swiftest ways for me to lose the war if I screw up, so I’m cautious here.

Finally, the submarine war. The sea lanes are abstracted to a box off the coast of Brittany:




There are a few - 2 or 3 - submarine squadrons raiding our merchant marine ships on the high seas. I have a few squadrons of my own hunting them, but honestly, I like the German subs there. President Wilson of the US gets very pissed off if American sailors or passengers are killed by German torpedo attacks, so frankly as long as the submarines are there there’s a chance every few weeks that they might torpedo the wrong ship, and tilt the United States towards war…But more on that if it ever happens. Suffice to say that using unrestricted submarine warfare is not a risk-free proposition for Germany.

Casualties and morale:



42,000 more dead Germans, 8,000 more dead Russians, and 30,000 dead Frenchmen. The overall power ratio is down to 1.37. So far, the Central Powers aren’t trading as well as they need to trade - a 1:1 casualty ratio will bleed them dry much sooner than it will us or the vast Russian empire.

[Cyneheard]

Unrelated to this specific post, at work we were talking about overly micromanaging people (in this case, teachers), and I almost said “think like a Napoleonic general and stop trying to micromanage because it just won’t work, your lines of communication are too long.”

Then I realized they wouldn’t get the comment, because they don’t read this thread.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

15 - 31 October, 1914: the beginning of the battle of Belgium?

After a small delay from the Central Powers in sorting out their orders, the turn for late October processes - probably with the most lopsided results yet in favor of the Entente. The situation seems to hold great promise, and I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop.



First, on October 28, Rear Admiral Thomas Jerram, of the Royal Navy, leading a fleet of 1 battlecruiser, 7 cruisers, and a gaggle of destroyers in the vast expanses of the Pacific, is lucky enough to site his prey: Admiral Graf Spee’s German East Asia Squadron, consisting of heavy cruisers Scharnhorst & Gneisenau with supporting light cruisers. There is a running gunfight all day as the British fleet tries to bring the fleeing Germans to bay. In general, German gunnery is superior - these two ships are perhaps the best in the entire Kaiserliche Marine - but the superior weight of British metal tells and one of the two German heavy cruisers is sunk - I can’t tell which. In return we lose one of our light cruisers from the Australia squadron with light damage to other ships. With no ports available to resupply and repair, the East Asia Squadron is running out of time.

Second, von Kluck at last extracts his bedraggled survivors from the hornet’s nest at Maubeuge:


The support of the corps from Charleroi is instrumental in relieving von Kluck’s 50,000 survivors, now down from army strength to the size of a single corps. 10,000 Germans bravely die for their country forcing open the escape corridor, while it seems Joffre is content to chase the invaders from French soil as Gallic casualties are virtually nil. In both battles, the enemy suffers significant pursuit hits - about 15 in each case, probably another 5,000 men or so and perhaps another warship.

With that done, French soil is entirely clear of invaders! Or it would be, if not for the early October offensives into Longwy and Belfort, which fail to develop significantly in the last two weeks of the month:



The Western Front now runs from Antwerp to Switzerland. The German right wing is hanging in the air in Belgium, where Lord Kitchener’s operation to relieve Antwerp directly via sea is so far a complete success, as British reinforcements flood into the city. The Field Marshal is now planning to attack into the open plains around the city and link up with armies coming up via land, as we plan a large-scale offensive to envelop the German right and drive them right back over the German border.

I spend most of the turn reorganizing the BEF - now that Lord Kitchener is on the Continent I actually have the command range to form armies, where before I had been forced to either operate as isolated corps or to accept huge command penalties. By turn’s end I should have about 3 British armies on the continent, each one of about 3-4 corps - I raised frantic numbers of militia and territorial divisions in August and September, so while they may not have the firepower of German divisions they can definitely defend a line.

Now, the general situation in Belgium:


I Garde Korps is isolated near Antwerp, with a large gap between them and the nearest German formations at Brussels. Intelligence has identified von Moltke himself at Brussels, along with X Corps, an artillery regiment, and an unknown further German unit - possibly as large as another corps (in fact, probably, given that it has 4 units within it). However, that force ALSO is the only connection to the battered I Armee at Charleroi and the relieving IX Corps there, and von Moltke can’t be in two places at once.

So, our plan of offensive is thus:

1. Kitchener and First British Army are to sally out of Antwerp, break the German encirclement, and establish communications with elements of the Belgian Army moving into Mechelen on his right flank.
   
2. French and the Second British Army are to assault Charleroi, while Third British Army pins down the German army at Brussels. Our goal here is to pursue and harry I Armee and not give von Kluck a chance to rest or refit. I think many of his elements are close to breaking and can be destroyed utterly if I keep the pressure on. Otherwise I’d concentrate my efforts on Brussels and leave Charleroi to be bypassed and cut off.
   
3. Joffre and the French general reserve will support both operations via pressure on Charleroi and Brussels from the east and south, flanking German defenses.
   
4. Sixth Armee, the new French force, will rail from Maubeuge to Belfort to repel the German attack there.
   

Thus:



A general offensive, all along the line, hoping to establish favorable conditions for the complete liberation of Belgium by the end of the year. We have a considerable edge in numbers, and although we’ll probably take some bad losses so will the Germans.

Along the southern half of the front:


We ignore the penetration at Longwy, for now. The German attack has vulnerable flanks to the north and my armies south of there are solid, for the moment. If I can seal off Belfort, the Longwy thrust has no dangerous potential at all. So, I’m railing two full armies to Belfort to try and smack the German VII Armee there. One will leave Nancy temporarily exposed, but it’s behind the lines nad well-fortified, I don’t expect a German coup de main there before I can return.

Losses:



The Central Powers suffered 20,000 casualties in the second half of October. The Russians lost 14,000 and we lost 1,000 men - very favorable indeed! CP combat power is down to 1.3 to 1 against us.

By my analysis, this means that the Central Powers are very badly outnumbered all along the front at this point. Suppose we can deploy 10 men, the Russians 8, and the Centrals 13. If they match us on the Western front, 10 to our 10, then they have only 3 against 8 Russians, outnumbered nearly 3:1 there. If they mass against the Russians, 8 on their 8, then only 5 men oppose our 10 and we have a 2:1 edge. Or they can split, but in that case they’ll be outnumbered on both fronts by about a 4:3 edge, meaning we can probe for weak points as in Belgium.

Now, the Ottoman Empire will be declaring war soon, possibly as early as January, so that will stabilize things for the Centrals, particularly in the East. However, if I’m right, I think we have a window of opportunity to really punish the Germans for a bit. Does anyone see any flaws in this? Suggestions for possible offensive action?

[Cyneheard]

The basic structure makes sense - Belgium is where Germany can be hammered and with how much this is a war and game of attrition that seems like the only choice.

For pulling the army out of Nancy - is there any chance that the Germans:
1) Have available troops for an offensive
2) Decide that this is the time to strike in the East?

It sounds like this only works if that was already their plan, and somehow I doubt they're trying any crazy gambits based on what we've seen.

Famous last words, of course.