Suboptimal IV: Indonesian Insanity

[Cornflakes]

1W with your warrior was a fine move. I'm surprised that Woden didn't declare war with a guaranteed kill on your warrior. Now a war declaration should kick you out of his territory to the SW to safety. There are borders peeking out of the fog to the NW of the copper (they look like Macedonian grey/yellow, but how can that be?). That does look like a good place for the warrior to head. The bare desert hill 1NW of Alexandria might be a better tile from an exploration perspective if you can get there with only 1 Macedonian warrior pursuing.

Moving the western warrior to stone is also fine. If you want to proceed with the attack then I'd probably fortify in place to heal until Iron Working arrives and then upgrade. That should give you a 90 HP sword of your own on T49 with a promotion in hand to heal at some point, plus 1 Carthage sword upgraded, plus the Nan Madol warrior and 2nd Carthage warrior for the assault on Alexandria. That should be a sufficient force if the Macedonian military can be drawn off to the east. You could potentially upgrade the 2nd Carthaginian warrior to a 3rd sword if you have the gold available.

Razing the encampment at Methone (once he chops it out) looks like a good objective for those two eastern warriors. That is a way to damage him and slow down his progress to GGeneral and should be doable with those 2 warriors alone unless the Macedonian army interferes (which is what you want).

[suboptimal]

I think Woden wasn't (isn't) intending on declaring war -- he fortified the promoted warrior and the slinger prior to my turn, which I have to interpret as a "try nothing and you get away". After all, I don't think he wants to give the current cultural leader a free inspiration.

I'll sail the warriors up the coast a bit further, then bring them back down -- they've got 5 or 6 turns of time to delay before they do anything and there isn't anywhere that they can disembark now that ruins the element of surprise. We'll disembark when the graphics of the district are closer to completion. Razing the encampment and potentially threatening the city with those warriors should draw his attention to the southeast, particularly if one or both get promoted.

Regarding the borders at Alexandria, he may have been buying tiles. After sketching a couple of things out I think the capital is in one of two spots:
- probably coastal, 3NW-1NE of Alexandria. This makes the borders NW of copper and 2NE of Alexandria 2nd ring tiles
- possibly coastal, 2NW-2NE of Alexandria. This makes the borders NW of copper a 3rd ring tile but all other visible borders first ring.

Settler vision is no good here because the cities obstruct the view. I also don't get a tool tip for the tile 2NE of Alexandria to see which city it belongs to. Unless there's a big peninsula jutting west somewhere to the NW of Carthage (or a barbarian camp with quadriremes) the galley could be in the area in 7-8 turns.

EDIT - I looked at the Loyaty Lens. Take a look at where all the pressure markers are:




They are all on hex edges midway between the cities and pointing away from the city centers they represent. The loyalty marker NW of Alexandria supports (I think) the first location I listed. The loyalty pressure is such that we'd never hold the city so a raze (or upgrade warrior and raze) would be in the cards if we're able to take it.

EDIT 2: I'm going to levy Carthage next turn in order to ensure the cost doesn't go up in the next few turns if someone flips the world over to the Classical Age on us. BTW, Nan Madol hasn't given us a new quest yet.

[Cornflakes]

I think you are right about the Macedonian capital location 3NW - 1NE of Alexandria. If his capital is indeed coastal then you may want to slip a Quad into the build queue at Punky's as soon as you can slot Maritime Industries again. A Quad would be able to bombard walls without penalty.

I took a good look at the island city location you pointed out a few days ago (marsh 2W of the Yosemite crabs) and I think that is a good enough candidate for next settler out of the capital. It has coastal city locations for districts 1NW, 1SW, and 2NW that qualify for the Nan Madol +2. GFH can be worked initially, and the crabs + sugar will be picked up quickly. Some builder love can get us another luxury, chop/mine the forest hill for + , and either harvest the wheat for + or farm it for the Irrigation eureka. If we establish Magnus here for the forest chop I'm inclined to also harvest the wheat with the +50% boost because the faith generated will be nearly enough to purchase another builder, and the Irrigation eureka is only 2 turns of saved. A 4-charge builder can chop/mine the hill > harvest wheat > camp the Fox. First pop works the GHF, 2nd pop works Sugar, 3rd pop works Crabs (don't really need to net crabs since builder charge only yields +1, unless you need it for the Celestial Navigation eureka), 4th pop can work the Fox, 5th pop can work a Kampung on the Yosemite tile 2W of capital since that should be acquired by then. That will be a weak long-term city but in the short term it provides an amenity and much gold. The weak production can go exclusively into districts and buildings. Holy Site 1NW of city center will generate a least, Harbor 1NE once unlocked will be 3 adjacency and provide 1 to HS. Lighthouse will boost Crabs + Yosemite Kampung and add a trade route. Those will be painfully slow builds but you could at least use the forest chop for the Harbor.

[suboptimal]

Ships do suffer damage reduction due to walls. I know this from PBEM 10 - it's why I brought the Siege Engine with the frigates on my failed Geneva assault. I should be able to get a galley started after Punky's settler and slot Maritime Industries when State Workforce is completed. I should be able to jungle chop in the mid-50's with Magnus to get a second one out. However, that puts a slight damper on the Agoge builds until Political Philosophy.

I was planning on the island marsh for the capital's settler, so we're on the same page. Boating the crabs improves not just the crabs and gets the Eureka but also gives +1 to any kampungs we get down so I think that's worth a builder charge. The issue is that we might not have Liang for 4-charge builders unless we forego Magnus until the Govt Plaza is complete. I'll need to look at possible scenarios for this.

[Cornflakes]

Ships do suffer damage reduction due to walls.  I know this from PBEM 10 - it's why I brought the Siege Engine with the frigates on my failed Geneva assault.

I knew naval melee suffered from walls penalty, but I thought naval ranged were immune. Quoting from the WiKi [admittedly not the most reliable source]:

Also, ranged ships (like the Frigate) do full damage against City Defenses.

I did review your documented test from PBEM 10 and see what you mean, with the 50% penalty to damage from naval ranged. Still the Quadrireme only gets 50% penalty vs. city walls compared to 85% penalty for galley attacks. May or may not be worth it to send a Quad.

I think the biggest thing to consider is how you are going to play your domestic civ management because I highly doubt that you will be able to eliminate Macedon without a military push. Your levies will allow you to choke Macedon and slow their progress, but the quicker you can get to Knights the better. My quick thoughts are:

• Iron Working > Archery as per your current plan for swords + archer upgrade for Carthage envoy
  
• Then Celestial Navigation to slot Harbors [as soon as you can get the eureka]. You have a couple high adjacency (+3 and +5) sites available. Also triggers Cartography eureka. Lighthouses boost Kampung tiles and add trade routes. Also Free Inquiry dedication in a Medieval Golden Age will boost the harbors.
  
• Avoid Writing + Currency + Apprenticeship completely??? You don't have any high adjacency locations for campus, and Stockholm won't boost campus yields until you build a Library. Your production can already go to Holy Sites + Harbors + Lighthouses + military. Yosemite + pop  can carry you science-wise on the direct Knights beeline.
  
• Pick up Wheel to start building/chopping Heavy Chariots, tech straight to Knights (only prerequisite that this point is HBR). Civics should be close to Feudalism by the time your science reaches Stirrups. 
  
• Hit Cartography after Stirrups. Your UU-ship is unlocked on the Civics tree and will be unlocked shortly after Feudalism/Stirrups, and with Cartography you will be able to take control of the seas and defend yourself from the other continent. Once Macedon is eliminated you can focus on catching up your .
  

[suboptimal]

One thing working for us right now w/r/t Macedon is that Alexandria has no production and limited growth potential (he's at his pop growth max until he chops out a jungle or farms the plains), so he's only got two cities to build military and catch up with science & culture. That will slow him down a little. One other consideration missing from your plan: we have a good chance at landing DotF. Once we get a Tier 1 government I'm putting in Revelation to speed along the Great Prophet. If we can get DotF are crossbows & swords enough to defend against Macedonia while we work towards an attacking force, especially since it's going to take him a while to even get to our cities after he's built out?

I agree that Harbors are going to be preferred over Commercial Hubs for the gold economy. It does make us vulnerable ("dead") if we lose naval superiority (or never gain it) but there's more synergy and we'll deal with that possibility over time.

Yosemite will only get us another 4 and a good portion of that is in low-prioty cultural expansion tiles. Also don't forget we've got an opponent who already has two Campus districts down (Archduke) and we can't fall too far behind him, either. I do not agree with avoiding Writing. I think that we'll need Campus districts placed at a minimum, sooner rather than later. The other consideration is that if we can squeeze some chop overflow into Campus districts before the patch hits we'll be better off than trying to just use Magnus to chop in later. For example, the Campus district pin at Dyes is on a forest. Chop the forest into a boat (probably a quadrireme) with or without Magnus and overflow into the Campus. The other forest could finish off the Campus and overflow into something else. I don't want to be scratch-building my first Campus at a cost of 150 with only Magnus to help with chops (or in a city where everything was previously chopped out). Besides, the bigger science lead we can get on Woden while getting military built will help us long term.

My current tech plan is Iron Working -> Pottery -> Writing -> Masonry ->Wheel -> Celestial Navigation with Archery getting slotted into the mix once I get a couple more slingers out.

For districts right now the "plan" is:

Holy Sites: Sound, Punky's
Govt Plaza: Punky's
Encampment: Capital. [Military Training boost and to build swords] Next to the Holy Site keeps the grass hill E-NE of city center for mining but involves a tile buy. The grass hill is a better location from a field of fire and gold perspective (it's next on the city's expansion list) but we lose the production.
Campus: +3 (+2 when jungles are chopped out) at Dyes, one Campus elsewhere (island, probably, but not necessarily the first city)
Harbors: Punky's (+5, NW of city center), Dyes (W of city center, +3)

The Island location could get a Holy Site NW of the city center, Harbor NE and eventually something NW of the Holy Site. It's also our only Water Mill candidate.

For builds in the immediate future my current plan is:

Sound: Holy Site -> Settler -> 2x Slingers/Archers -> Encampment
Punky's: Settler -> Holy Site -> Slingers/Archers or Govt Plaza depending on game status (GPP & 3rd governor promotion)
Dyes: Quadrireme (a single forest under Maritime Industries will complete a quadrireme) overflow into Campus.
Island City: Found on Island Marsh Turn 62. Chop & mine the forest into something with Magnus present. I think if we harvest something for food it should be the marsh NW of the wheat - that's 3/6 farms for Fedualism and a probable farm triangle with the tile W of the wheat.

I'd also like to get monuments down in the mid-Classical because at some point we'll probably lose Nan Madol to Macedonia unless we can keep Woden focused to his west.

[Cornflakes]

Do you know if Harbors also get the minor adjacency from coast? If so that is an extra 1-2 per harbor. I see your point on building a couple of campus earlier. Wait on the encampment tile buy for now so we can use the gold as the situation dictates at Macedon.

[suboptimal]

They do not. The description of the ability is specific in that regard - Holy Sites, Theater Districts, Campus and Industrial Complexes get +1 yield, Entertainment Complexes on the coast get +1 amenity. Commercial Hubs and Harbors get no adjacency bonuses from coastal placements.

One other thing to consider - Stockholm is currently building a Campus on the tile NE of the city center. It has an adjacency value of zero. However, it is adjacent to at least one coast (its NW edge is cliffs). I think it might be worth considering suzeraining the city with Amani and then taking the city once they build a library (and a harbor if we want to wait that long).

[suboptimal]

Just re-ran the numbers while we've got some downtime....all of this discounts what happens at Macedonia. If we need to relocate Magnus for loyalty because we pull off a city conquest then the chop math is out the window.

Est Civic Completion: State Workforce EoT48, Political Theory EoT 54, Military Tradition EoT55 (though will hold at 1 turn for policy swap on T56)
Est Tech Completion: Iron Working EoT49, Pottery EoT50, Masonry EoT58, Wheel EoT61

Sound Builds: Holy Site EoT48, Settler EoT58
Punky's Builds: Settler E0T46. Holy Site (preferred) or Quad, both would complete EoT59, no jungle chop.
Dyes: Magnus Chop forest T56 (141???, 70.5), complete Quad, overflow ~58 into Campus, Magnus to Punky's
Island City founds on Turn 62

Does Magnus + Policy add or multiply the bonuses out? If it adds the bonuses it's 50% + 100% = +150% for 117.5, if multiply it's 47 * 1.5 * 2.0 = 141

We'd go into a Golden Age with ~385 to spend. The first builder costs 86.8 (90?) and then each builder is ~5.6 more expensive (not sure how the rounding works). The first settler would cost 238. We won't have Liang as the Govt Plaza would not be completed (or even placed at Turn 61). I think we buy four builders right out of the gate - one at each city:

Sound: Mine grass hill NE of Iron, Kampung lake, chop forest NW of city into Agoge (~70, 47) for 2x slingers
Punky's: Magnus chop jungle into slinger on T61(36, 54, 72, +1 pop), mine grassland hill, Kampung E of pearls, place Govt Plaza at cost of 70 (29.5 overflow) and build it out, Magnus to Island on T62.
Dyes: Chop forest E of city (47, 47:faith) into Campus, mine chopped hill, mine grassland hill
Island: Farm the wheat (don't need the furs yet), chop & mine the forest hill on T67 (~75, 75) into ? (we could be in Agoge or Maritime Industries at that point).

Generation + chops gets us enough to purchase a settler on T67 and we'd be generating 13 per turn (8 from cities, 2 from holy sites 2 from working both pearls and 1 from dyes), so we'd be able to buy a builder at the new city as soon as it was founded. We could get the Govt Plaza complete at Punky's EoT67 and we'd have Liang active somewhere EoT 72. I don't think it's worth waiting for her for the initial round of builders.

[Cornflakes]

Magnus I'm pretty certain is multiplicative with the policy bonus. CMF documented that in PBEM 8:

Turn 50
43 production, which Magnus doubles to 86, which Agoge then takes to 129.

Magnus is now only +50%, but the relationship should be the same. In the above 100% + 50% bonus actually result in 300% 

We'd go into a Golden Age with ~385 to spend. ... I think we buy four builders right out of the gate - one at each city
[...]
We could get the Govt Plaza complete at Punky's EoT67 and we'd have Liang active somewhere EoT 72. I don't think it's worth waiting for her for the initial round of builders.

I concur, your majesty. So let it be written, so let it be done! Civ 2 advisors are playing in my head right now ... In fact, I had to look them up on YouTube again for nostalgia sake.

Ok, back to the game. After the builders, maybe a trader purchase? And then potentially monument faith purchases, building settler(s) with Colonization-boosted instead of .

If we can get DotF are crossbows & swords enough to defend against Macedonia while we work towards an attacking force, especially since it's going to take him a while to even get to our cities after he's built out?

Crossbows with DotF should be sufficient for defense. But that tech path isn't much (if any) quicker than Stirrups. The unit upgrades from archers > crossbows is about the same cost as chariots > knights. Mobility of archers is much less and they are purely defensive vs. Macedonia due to distance (and weakness outside of DotF). The Engineering eureka is the bottleneck on the tech path to crossbows. You would rather wait until Limes to build walls, but Limes is only unlocked about 6-8 turns before Feudalism and the Stirrups boost. There is no economic benefit to Engineering > Machinery vs. HBR > Stirrups. Neither path does anything for your growth or yields (maybe a single Lumbermill, probably no Aqueducts built).

Just trying to get a very rough timeline for civics research, starting after Military Tradition T55 > G&R (9 turns no boost) > Defensive Tactics (9 turns no boost) > Feudalism (8 turns) = EOT81 which is coincidentally the exact turn I discovered Feudalism in PBEM 11 [double-checked after the above estimate]. Now comparing that timeline to the tech research. Estimate your research rate as 15 (current) + 2 (additional Yosemite) + 3 (Campus) + 3 (pop growth) = 23. Starting after Wheel T61 > HBR 60 with the boost (3 turns) > Stirrups 252 with boost including era penalty (11 turns) = EOT74. Civics therefore is the critical path to unlocking Knights. If you can get the civics timeline down to EOT74 that would just about match the timeline that your Carthage levy expires.

As long as Nan Madol survives, you can probably speed up your Civics timeline. You'll gain 4 turns if Macedon declares war on you. You could build Monuments, but with Nan Madol it makes more sense to build coastal districts instead (except I remembered that you can faith-purchase monuments). Actually how does the Monument actually function in R&F? I'm confused by the Wiki, is the Monument +2/+1 Loyalty and gains a bonus 3rd at 100% Loyalty? Or does it lose the base culture and only gets +1 at 100% loyalty? After the initial round of builder purchases you could potentially faith-purchase Monuments to speed along your Culture rate. Best defenders Macedon can have at this point are GG-boosted Hetairoi at 46 strength + free promo. Actually, now that I think about it the free promo puts Hetairoi on the same level as DotF-boosted Crossbows since they are heavy cavalry and the logical promotion is Tortoise. That is nearly equivalent to horsemen so quantity and tactics are going to be critical.