Late to post my full predictions for this game in here, but here they are. Not all that interesting this time I think, though.
Winner: Justinian I
Runner Up: Peter
First to Die: Churchill
Number of Wars: 12
Victory Type: Domination
Victory Date: T299
Justinian HAS to be heavily favored this game, I would be shocked if he isn't a 60%+ pick for first. He has the most land to expand into with his Imperialistic trait and the 2nd best land (Peter has the best imo). He's also facing largely historically ineffective AI. Zara might seem like a natural 2nd place, but his high religious diplo and likelihood of competing against Justinian there marks him for death.
Zara, Churchill and Qin all suffer from something dangerous: No copper! That seems a lot more common this year. Churchill has a disputed Tundra Copper but that's it. With Peter (8/10 aggression) and Alexander (8.6/10) with capital/close copper nearby, I feel any of them are a good choice to get whacked first. If there's any game for Alex to snowball to 2nd, this is it. I like Peter more though: His capital is crazy good, with triple food and tons of lush nearby spots and Churchill right there to kill. He also is a lot more likely to be economic than Alex. This makes it natural to pick Churchill as the copperless to die. I think this is gonna be a pretty fast Justinian romp, which also contributes to lower wars.
Oh, and this game has lots of implications for the Playoffs: Justinian winning creates a crazy, zealotic Pacal/Charlemagne/Saladin/Justinian game and Alex, Qin or Peter getting 2nd probably assures Gandhi loses (4 super low peace weight civs) while Churchill or Zara runner up gives him a fighting chance if another high peace weight makes it!
Justinian HAS to be heavily favored this game, I would be shocked if he isn't a 60%+ pick for first. He has the most land to expand into with his Imperialistic trait and the 2nd best land (Peter has the best imo). He's also facing largely historically ineffective AI. Zara might seem like a natural 2nd place, but his high religious diplo and likelihood of competing against Justinian there marks him for death.
Zara, Churchill and Qin all suffer from something dangerous: No copper! That seems a lot more common this year. Churchill has a disputed Tundra Copper but that's it. With Peter (8/10 aggression) and Alexander (8.6/10) with capital/close copper nearby, I feel any of them are a good choice to get whacked first. If there's any game for Alex to snowball to 2nd, this is it. I like Peter more though: His capital is crazy good, with triple food and tons of lush nearby spots and Churchill right there to kill. He also is a lot more likely to be economic than Alex. This makes it natural to pick Churchill as the copperless to die. I think this is gonna be a pretty fast Justinian romp, which also contributes to lower wars.
Oh, and this game has lots of implications for the Playoffs: Justinian winning creates a crazy, zealotic Pacal/Charlemagne/Saladin/Justinian game and Alex, Qin or Peter getting 2nd probably assures Gandhi loses (4 super low peace weight civs) while Churchill or Zara runner up gives him a fighting chance if another high peace weight makes it!
Too bad we can't bet on more categories, because I'm pretty confident that Justinian is Third to Die.
Churchill and Zara should precede him into oblivion (basically, which of the two Alex attacks first is going to be FTD).
I don't think Alex has a good shot at being second : he'll either win or die IMO. Since I don't have Justinian as one of my last three standing, the fact that Peter and Qin have the same favourite civic (Bureaucracy), which they'll be running when defensive pacts are enabled, means that even if Alex has a good start (kill Zara fast, then participate in the Churchill dogpile) he could very well lose it all by attacking into a defensive pact.
Justinian does have a shot in this game, but that would be an outlier.
Hell, we could even have Churchill and Zara sharing the top two spots, even though they should die early !
I'd say the two things to look out for at the start of the game are :
- Who does Alex go for, and how soon : if he attacks Zara first, and before Zara connects his iron, then Alex will do well (until midgame at least)
- Whether Justinian and Qin share a religion or not : if they don't (which I believe the most likely outcome), then Justinian is in big trouble (Qin has much better land)
Now the main reason I don't believe in Justinian in this game is the one I've hinted at in the "comments" I sent with my predictions : Justinian sent his scouts south, so if I got this right, he's going to found his Holy City in the tundra (crab/sheep spot I'd wager).
So he might end up converting Peter (coastal spread), but that should be it : so no big religious alliance, no premium land gained.
I'm actually really curious why you think Justinian's land is so bad. IMO he has a lot higher land quality than lost leaders this game, although Peter's bananas start is obviously better. Qin's land seems kinda on the poor side to me and there's a good chance his shot at winning gets tanked due to Peter or Alex attacking him before he has a competent sized metal army. Is it just his fish start? Coastal spread from Justinian to Peter WOULD fit my feel of the game...
EDIT, Game Seven Spoilers:
Justinian's territory didn't end up a problem, but everything else was spot on Wyatan (I DID also say I thought Alex could snowball). Great work, Wyatan!
But it seems I misread the Qin situation.
I expected Zara to open Agriculture (which he didn't because he's an idiot), Justinian to go straight for a religion (which he didn't because he's smart), and Qin to open Mysticism (woooonders : Stonehenge !). Which would have led Qin, after completing his research, to notice that he was very much in the running for a religion and to go for it.
He would thus have planted a Holy City right in the middle of the contested land between him and Justinian (seems like my "Eureka" moment between last game and this one about second city placement is confirmed, though ), been firmly on the other side of the religious divide, and on the winning side of their inevitable conflict.
Well... that didn't quite happen.
I think that Sullla moved Qin's starting spot btw : his starting position doesn't really look like the kind that's usually generated, while the lake with a river source off by one slightly to the East (basically where he founded his third city) is a telltale starting spot. So Qin had two "capital-quality" spots available.
I thought Alex had the best shot at this game, closely followed by Qin, with Peter a more distant chance.
I also believed Peter and Qin had the best shots at ending up second.
So I hesitated a long time between going for Alex + Peter, or hedging my bets with Qin + Qin.
In the end, I went for Alex + Peter because it was more fun, and the other choice was pretty lame.
And contrary to game 5, backing the dark horse paid off this time.
(July 10th, 2020, 10:33)Kuro Wrote:
I'm actually really curious why you think Justinian's land is so bad.
See above... the land east of Justinian's capital was great... but I believed it would end up being Qin's. So Justinian would have ended up with essentially a lot of tundra/ice cities. Which did happen, but certainly not to the extent I envisioned.
(July 10th, 2020, 10:33)Kuro Wrote:
Justinian's territory didn't end up a problem, but everything else was spot on Wyatan (I DID also say I thought Alex could snowball). Great work, Wyatan!
Thanks.
I did have a cold sweat moment though when it seemed Alex was massing units in his city bordering Churchill... luckily, he ended up sending them at the right target !
Zara got revenge on Justin for being the runner up in season 1
In Soviet Russia, Civilization Micros You!
"Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
“I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money.”
(July 10th, 2020, 16:38)Wyatan Wrote: So, Game 7...
I like when a plan comes together.
The Alex snowball did happen as expected/hoped.
But it seems I misread the Qin situation.
I expected Zara to open Agriculture (which he didn't because he's an idiot), Justinian to go straight for a religion (which he didn't because he's smart), and Qin to open Mysticism (woooonders : Stonehenge !). Which would have led Qin, after completing his research, to notice that he was very much in the running for a religion and to go for it.
He would thus have planted a Holy City right in the middle of the contested land between him and Justinian (seems like my "Eureka" moment between last game and this one about second city placement is confirmed, though ), been firmly on the other side of the religious divide, and on the winning side of their inevitable conflict.
Well... that didn't quite happen.
I think that Sullla moved Qin's starting spot btw : his starting position doesn't really look like the kind that's usually generated, while the lake with a river source off by one slightly to the East (basically where he founded his third city) is a telltale starting spot. So Qin had two "capital-quality" spots available.
I thought Alex had the best shot at this game, closely followed by Qin, with Peter a more distant chance.
I also believed Peter and Qin had the best shots at ending up second.
So I hesitated a long time between going for Alex + Peter, or hedging my bets with Qin + Qin.
In the end, I went for Alex + Peter because it was more fun, and the other choice was pretty lame.
And contrary to game 5, backing the dark horse paid off this time.
Well, I'm jealous. I had looked at the Alex snowball as a possibility, but just didn't have the courage to pull the trigger. Kept thinking that Alex was going to screw it up somehow.
Well, I'm jealous. I had looked at the Alex snowball as a possibility, but just didn't have the courage to pull the trigger. Kept thinking that Alex was going to screw it up somehow.
I'm with you. Seeing Zara with no copper and WITH horses and the existence of hoplites was just a murder waiting to happen. He might have actually been better off without the horses to just build archers except that he choose instead of teching archery to get absolutely no techs at all. "It's a bold move Cotton, let's see if it pays off."
I correctly picked Zara as first to die, but I had no idea Alex'd be able to actually have some sort of cohesive game plan and not just flail about Montily.
Game Seven is finished! We set several AI Survivor records in this game though I'll avoid spoiling what they were for those who haven't watched it yet. We had yet another amazing turnout for the Livestream today and hit 216 concurrent viewers at the highest point, the most people that have ever showed up for an AI Survivor match. Thank you so much to everyone who was able to catch at least some of the broadcast! Here's a batch of links for the next game:
Congratulations to Agni Neres and Wyatan as the winners of Game Four's picking contest with 21 points apiece. They were both right on the nose in a game with an unexpected result. Scoring was well below normal in this game with an average score of 5.12 points. Most of us missed badly on several of the scoring categories this time. We are continuing with our normal Friday date for next week's game. It's the final opening round game before we move on to the Wildcard game and then the playoffs. Who do you have this week?
I didn't have time to look at the live preview of game 8; this is either an obvious one or really complicated -- I haven't decided yet. A TON of influential players in this one, although I'm preeetty skeptical of almost all of them. A lot of scored points and a lot of overrated AIs. Even the non-entities look ready to make their mark on the game though.
), been firmly on the other side of the religious divide, and on the winning side of their inevitable conflict.
They were both right on the nose in a game with an unexpected result. Scoring was well below normal in this game with an average score of 5.12 points. Most of us missed badly on several of the scoring categories this time. We are continuing with our normal Friday date for next week's game. It's the final opening round game before we move on to the Wildcard game and then the playoffs. Who do you have this week?
