[PB59 Amicalola] The Vespertine Hour(s)

[Amicalola]

T176
Post-GA demos were not terrible. This was taken at breakeven science (~60%), after this turn's whips. Next turn will also have a lot of whips, but after that we will slow down on those a little. 



GNP was surprisingly 'not shit' in particular, as I had been expecting to be back in the dumpster like I was pre-GA. Similarly with MFG, a lot of my potential mines are windmills (pre-RP - I wonder if I should have gotten that sooner), so I was a little worried. The difference that ten turns makes.  

I've swapped back to building a lot of units, since I'm starting to get concerned about Cairo now. The other thing I've started building a few of is Drydocks, which were an interesting puzzle (Drydocks for more ships later, or ships now?). One thing that occurred to me is this:

"What if I don't join the Nauf war at all? Build drydocks in all the cities that are relevant, get just enough military to scrape by, and count on hitting Cairo before his Nauf conquests are ever hugely profitable?" The greedy part of my brain is very active for this game, since I still feel like there's a tiny chance I could win. Maybe it's dumb, since I could surely get at least a couple cities for basically free, but I am considering it. I'll see how my thoughts develop over the coming turns. 

Next I am going for Printing Press, which is quite bad for me (relative to the average), and Replaceable Parts, which is excellent for me (relative to the average). After Replaceable Parts, I'll probably convert a lot of my remaining mines to windmills, because I prefer a 2/2/1 tile to a 1/3/0 tile (or 1/3/1 to 0/4/0). I really wish global lurkers were allowed to at least give general advice/thoughts/opinions - I'd love to hear about what others think for that tile comparison.

[Amicalola]

T176.5
Seems everytime I log in to check my micro, someone has a new thought-provoking offer for me.


Everyone wants me as a friend. I am the prettiest princess.  

More seriously, I wonder how SD knew to send something on this exact turn... Or perhaps it was just a huge coincidence. Maybe Tarkeel did something obvious. Theoretically I'm not joining in for another 10 turns, so that would be weird. I don't think this changes anything for me, but I have a while to change my mind.

Edit: Also, I remembered to cancel the 82 gold payback to Civac. Now I'm making 92gpt at 60% research! I was just under breakeven at 50% before the Golden Age, so pretty big improvement. I guess it mostly comes from Free Market trade routes and those 8 banks I whipped. Harbours are probably starting to make a difference too, although more noticeable in 5 turns or so.

[Amicalola]

Harbors without EXP aren't worth it. It would be 2-3 base commerce for 80 base hammers or 54 hammers with forge and OR. Maybe in the capital.

I leave it to the reader's discretion whether the   is directed at myself or civac.

[klops]

hehe
I am not a civ-master and take it as "there is always a second opinion"

[Amicalola]

T177-178
Looks like Cairo is about to make some serious gains, which I cannot seriously challenge. So I have moved units into position to take what little seems plausible under the circumstances. It's quite pitiable, really.


I am settling the island with a janissary on it, and (hopefully) taking Delhi. That's probably it. Yeah, yikes.

Once I take those, I will offer Naufragar peace. Probably a treaty, but maybe a ceasefire. My one hope is that he will be able to damage or stall Cairo for longer than it currently seems, but I have to say I think I overestimated him (or maybe underestimated Cairo). I thought there would be a bit more fighting that is currently happening. At least he is getting Steel at the end of this turn, although he doesn't seem to have prebuilt too many catapults. Hopefully they're coming next turn. 

Settling the island will presumably piss Cairo off no end, and he might try to auto-raze my city. Not sure if he can, but I have more frigates in the sea, so I should be able to hit back somewhat. If he doesn't, I can maintain cultural control over the fish indefinitely, which is what makes the island worth it. I need to ensure that I have enough frigates in the inner sea to deal with any retribution - speaking of which, maybe I should have whipped a frigate instead of a library in Army of Me.  

I feel a bit like I've botched this whole thing. Maybe instead of building commerce buildings in my Golden Age, I should have built an army to rival Cairo's and taken half of Naufragar for myself. The problem with that is that it's very difficult to rival aggressive/drafted janissaries without wrecking my own economy, but maybe that would still have been less bad than Cairo getting everything. He will have a few more cities than me following this war, and if the SD war goes ideally (unlikely) I will still only equal him. 

That said, it's obviously too late to try and challenge him for it now. Drafting 5 oromo warriors per turn is barely keeping me up as it is. So I do need to stick with my original plan and try to reach infantry first, and whack him as hard as possible then. To that end, Printing Press finished this turn, and Replaceable Parts will in two more. After that, I probably grab the current military gen. technology (Military Tradition, Rifling, maybe Military Science?), and then go for Steam Power and railroads. But I do think this is a pretty bad outcome for me, spurred by pretty bad decisions by me; we'll see if I can avoid the wrath of Cairo. I'm not optimistic.

[Amicalola]

I really wish I hadn't sent Cairo that friendly-ish diplo 15 turns ago. I think by far the best move for me from here is to draft/whip a storm up once Rifling/Military Tradition are in, don't get involved with SD, and hit Cairo with everything I can around T190-195. But I feel like I can't do that because of the earlier diplo. So now I'm stuck in this dilemma where I'm not sure whether doing that would make me a shitty person, or just be a part of the game.

[Amicalola]

T179-180
I'm working on my capstone project so this is about the extent of my reporting for the next little while. Haven't attacked Nauf yet. He has so many frigates in the outer sea as to make taking his island impractical, for either me or Cairo. I will wait until I have enough frigates.

I actually think Nauf has a good chance of holding Cairo at the capital. He should have at least 10 cannons by then, and cannons are just SO good on the defense when your opponent has nothing comparable. If Nauf just consolidates all of his land units there, he should have some 20-30 hitters, that I think(?) would get pretty good odds on Cairo's stack in a strike. Also, 30-40 units behind a castle is pretty tough to beat.

I'm considering making a run at Communism. No one has gotten the Great Spy yet (Ichabod got Physics instead). I would need SciMeth, Liberalism, and Communism itself. Competitors are actually quite few: Miguelito/Rusten could have a crack, but I think I beat them to it (unless they're already researching SciMeth - I lost graphs for 2 turns, getting them back next turn). Ichabod would need several cheap techs, not sure how quick he could get them. Everyone else is already researching something else expensive, and couldn't beat me without switching halfway through. Great Spy sure would be nice....

[Amicalola]

T181-183
Another quick 'n dirty update. I moved in on Nauf because I realised that he's shipping his cannons to the islands, which gives him zero chance of holding Cairo, or even doing much damage really. Not what I would have done, but an interesting idea, I guess.

Anyway, I captured Delhi this turn (the tiny border city), which gives me a buffer zone for Thunderbolt. I'll try to take the island over the next 5 turns most likely, although it might take longer. Finally, I want to have a shot at razing Concrete Boat (big city south of Nauf's capital). I could never keep it, because Cairo would wipe my stack off the face of the earth if I tried. But if I can raze and resettle 1W of the current location, I'd be more than happy with that. Even if it just gets razed and then I run away back to Thunderbolt with my tail between my legs, that's much better than Cairo getting it. It would also be very cheeky, so we'll see if that's the straw that breaks Cairo's back re: me and my bullshit. Assuming I can manage it at all.

My capstone should be finished by the time I take my shot, so hopefully there will be proper reports of that. So far, the war is going as well as possible, since at worst it looks like I'll get my 2 shitty-cities (Delhi, island), and I've settled a filler that steals a fish for a third. If I can raze Concrete Boat, that's probably the literal best-case-scenario, following my poor decision not to compete for Nauf's core in general. If Cairo gets Concrete Boat, that's pretty rough. I wouldn't say I'm happy, but I think the situation is at least somewhat salvageable.

[Amicalola]

T183
I can't believe it. It's done. What a rollercoaster of emotion. Oh yeah, this is a civ thread. I can even upload pictures!

Here's how the front looked at the start of the turn:


The order is Naufragar->Cairo->Amicalola, so Cairo and I get to attack the Northern and Southern cities respectively on T185, but he moves first. Which is a semi-big problem (maybe he doesn't care if I move first, but it would feel dirty). The reason it's a problem is that you've seen my stack in the previous screenshot. Well here is Cairo's:


 Why yes, that is indeed 'fucking enormous.' Good observation.  

Both cities are relatively weakly defended - in a vacuum, neither of us breaks a sweat. BUT, if Cairo attacks No. 2's House before I attack Concrete Boat, then he gets a free swing at my (relatively) pathetic stack on the next turn with his 20(!) cuirs, and assorted knights (T186, in theory). There is nothing I can do to stop that, mechanically speaking. Other important context: last turn I sent Cairo fish/fish and copper/copper. He returned both. From here, I perceived three options.

1. March my entire stack towards Concrete Boat, trusting the fish/fish. 
   
2. Send my knights up ahead (Concrete Boat has 5 knights and a spear, while No. 2's House has an additional 6 knights).
   
3. Run away with my tail between my legs and hate myself for wimping out.
   

The problem with 1 is that if I was Cairo, I'd be extremely grumpy right now. My read on Cairo is that he's a good guy, but I've surely pushed a lot of his buttons at this point. He's also falling behind me in tech, for more mechanical incentive to hit me. Finally, on the turn of attack, he'd be looking at his army, looking at mine, and knowing I have very little behind it. If I'm Cairo, I'd see that as my chance to catapult myself to the lead of the continent, and perhaps even the win. So I don't think I can trust him to stick for a fish/fish - even if he means to now, I don't know if anyone could resist that temptation.

With 2, it looks great at first. Ultimately, it depends on what's in Naufragar's boat. If there's nothing, 2 is fantastic. If there's a musket, it's still good. If there's a cannon, option 2 is a disaster, because 2 cannons get his knights odds on mine. I'm 99% sure there's a cannon on that ship.  

So.... yeah, I decided to go for option 3. Which probably looks absolutely bizarre and stupid, and maybe it is. I know you can't tell me directly, but feel free to say in the lurker thread which option you'd have gone with, for me to read and laugh at myself later (I really am good humoured about my once some time passes!). Would you have trusted the fish/fish? Would you have taken the knight risk? Maybe there's a better 4th option that I completely missed in my brain-dead state. 

Anyway, in the real world it's already done. Maybe we can content ourselves with a brutal D-day for a 'bleh' island?


It's been 15 minutes and I already hate myself for wimping out.

[Amicalola]

First to Communism:


Check.

I'm trying to figure out whether I can assault Naufragar's island. The problem is, if I do it and Cairo is smart a filthy no-good backstabber, he can instantly attack my holdings in Pindicator's land. I wonder if Cairo had the same thought about me, although he'd probably be incorrect. Either way, for now, it's a stalemate over Naufragar's islands for both of us. 



I think I get what Naufragar is doing. He's maximising his time 'alive,' since by retreating to the islands, he made it so that we can't kill him instantly. I guess that's valid, but it certainly sucked for me, because Cairo's army barely took a scratch in the whole conquest. I half-suspect this is Naufragar's final 'F-you' in our spiteful relationship this game...    Cairo and I have equal city counts now, but about 5 of mine are useless fillers, whereas all of Cairo's cities seem strong. So I definitely have a short-term advantage only there, and I'm already behind militarily.

Other big happening is nextdoor. I tried to let Tarkeel know via diplo I couldn't join him vs. Superdeath around T182, since I need to defend from Cairo on all fronts, and it also became clear that SD had too many longbows and knights for a quick war. I expected him to go after Commodore instead, since SD was attacking Donovan Zoi. Instead, he surprisingly attacked SD anyway. 


Note the lack of catapults - I'm pretty sure Tarkeel's stack just got shredded.