Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Roland]

Man alive, Roland. That's a freaking novel. I'm not criticizing, I certainly commend your passion, but man, that is a freaking novel. That's all I have to say about you specifically, I'm 99% sure you're a villager, so I'll leave it at that.

Yeah... Even when I knew it was going to be a "long" post, I didn't expect any of them to be as long as they eventually ended up. Guess I still have the writer's touch, once I manage to get the ball rolling in my own head. Thanks for the vote of confidence!

Ok, so, I've thrown away a couple of joking posts and slightly less joking votes and haven't contributed anything.

No worries from my perspective. As I've said, early votes, however unfounded, are essential to a healthy strategy on both sides. Just don't be throwing around joke votes a week from now.

Stop reading so much into the day one posts. You can twist any words anyway you want, but little has been revealed yet.

While I obviously will disagree to a point about how little has been revealed, I will second the notion that we always need to be cautious about jumping to conclusions too soon. That's why I openly invite discussion about my theories, and ask everyone to come to their own conclusions.

As for the Mayor... well, I'll have more thoughts on that soon. Suffice it to say I'm more or less on the same page as you. I have no problems with your vote for Sunrise, and indeed, I can't think of anyone's vote who makes me leery at this point. I had my suspicions early on, but they've been pushed to the back for now.

And that leads to the last point I want to make. Roland is being EXTREMELY critical of people throwing their votes around. That is a very valid early days strategy, IMO. Shake the tree a little, see what falls out.

Really? I don't think so, but I did at least attempt to temper my thoughts and reasons with the explicit point that doing as you say - attempting to shake the tree - is valid and important for both sides. While in this first round wild accusations are enough to draw suspicion, that very meager "evidence" is hardly enough to vote on who to lynch for. Why do you think I held off on making my vote for so long? I wasn't confident in it until very late yesterday.

If I'm coming across as critical, it's not my intention. I implore everyone to voice their opinions, and often. The more we talk, the better understanding we get of everyone - and the more chances we get to catch a 'Wolf slipping up.

The reality is, I like Selrahc and think he would be a good mayor, and would be fine taking my chances he's not a wolf.

To be quite honest, I'm as much in favor of Selrahc as I am you, but that doesn't mean I think it's the wisest tactical move for us at this point - see my thoughts earlier on.

I still have no vote to lynch because I don't think anyone is a real suspect at this point.

While I would hope you would come to some conclusion before the end of this day, I can understand why you would want to abstain altogether from the first vote - I certainly had feelings towards doing just that early on. Having said that, I'm glad you're putting thought into your decision, especially this close to the end of the first round. I would hope everyone would take at least a little time to think on their decision before casting it, at this point, but by no means do I expect anyone to spend nearly as much time as I have weighing things over. I, personally, just got caught up in it all - it took me by surprise as much as anyone else.

So you support my idea of making MJW Mayor and getting him screened but still think I'm wolf .

My 2 main suspects at the moment (after reading Rolands posts) are Lewwyn (he has been absolutly against a MJW screening) and sandover.

I know this wasn't directed at me, but I felt compelled to comment. The idea that you are a 'Wolf because you wanted to make MJW a Mayor, for the sake of using one screen to hit 2 roles (so to speak) is not nearly enough to flash the 'Wolf card at you. Frankly, I've watched the discussion, and it's raised my suspicions on a few people because of it - but had the opposite effect on you.

As for your thoughts on Sandover versus Lewwyn, obviously you know where my feelings lie. Initially I thought the two were working together, too, but I've since come to the conclusion that Lewwyn was merely following for the sake of following, not because he's partnered with Sandover. I could be wrong, but that's my feeling at present. Whether it pans out or not remains to be seen.

You haven't read my PBEM3 thread, have you?
. . .
You can't possibly claim it's my fault MJW outed himself, can you? I was looking for wolves, not the baner.

No, and definitely no. MJW outed himself - anything that led up to that is merely coincidence. However, it was a very strong outcome for the 'Wolves. That doesn't make anyone who put pressure on him a 'Wolf, not by a long shot. What followed, however, is much more telling - at least to me.

It's day one. Where am I supposed to find more evidence? Again, just being me. Your friendly wolf hunting neighbourhood bully!

Not the most credible defense, although about what I expected. You're not hurting your case with me, but then, you're not helping it either. There IS evidence out there, even if it takes us a week to see the signs from day one. I'm doing my best to try and see as much of it on day one.

Ehm, what? I wouldn't call promoting Lewwyn as giving an early candidate, considering the amount of votes already present on either Selrahc or sunrise.

Actually, I was referring to your attack on Luddite - which echoed my thoughts almost exactly! Actually, I was more specifically speaking to your implicit endorsement of Selrahc - and without actually voting for him as Mayor!

Yes, we can. Roland almost convinced me to vote for Sandover!

I also recall someone (I'm pretty sure it was Roland) saying something along the lines of my posts not being very elaborate, but I seem to have lost the quote.

That's pretty funny actually. Thanks? To be frank, with everyone, I don't expect anyone to get into as much depth and detail as I have. I do encourage everyone to share their thoughts, their reasons, behind their decisions - whether it's one sentence or ten pages - but that's all. Whatever effort you put in is worthwhile and commendable.

Also, when I think about it, I believe Roland (and someone else, who was it again?) made some excellent points. Lets lynch Meiz?

Well, I have to say Sandover you're not doing anything to convince me not to vote for you. I will say, however, that voting for Meiz fits with what I would expect, given your position earlier. I have no further thoughts on this at the moment, and not enough time to delve into it enough to satisfy my own convictions enough to comment.

Suffice it to say, I have nothing personal against you Sandover. If someone, anyone, can present enough compelling evidence to prove to my satisfaction your innocence I will gladly give it my fullest attention. So far, no one - yourself included - has done that. I will say, I will miss your company, if only because if you are a 'Wolf as I suspect you would have kept things interesting. I salute you, regardless of what happens.

I had some funny thoughts yesterday before going to sleep. "If Roland hasn't posted anything meaningful in the next 10 hours, I'm going to cast my vote on him. Surely he must be wolf, being quiet like that!"

Ok, scrap that theory! . I now feel 99% confident that he is an innocent. So congratulations in advance, if you are revealed to be a wolf after all!

This tickles me everytime. I knew I had to be on a few people's radar for not posting anything for so long. I'm very glad I finally opened my mouth when I did! :D Thank you, too for your vote of confidence. It's much appreciated. As for whether I'm a 'Wolf, well, I'm not. I suspect however I'm going to be a very juicy 'Wolf target, so you may get your answer soon enough!

Just to clarify, I also live in Europe, GMT+2 time zone. Please don't expect me to hang here in the middle of the night!

No expectations exist from me. All I hope, from everyone, is that they put in some effort, and explain their reasons behind their decisions. That's all. This is for fun, after all!

I just don't see why that's a compelling reason for blaming me to be a wolf. Is it really that bad idea?

Neither do I. I won't say you haven't raised suspicions, but I will say that this particular reason doesn't strike me as 'Wolfish - at least, not enough to go ahead and lynch someone over, on its own. There has to be more compelling evidence, in my mind - one single shred of circumstantial evidence just isn't enough for me.

As for voting, Roland suggested us to make our own conclusions and I have tried to do that (wayyy too much time spent reading these messages, when I should be working!). In my opinion Sandover has acted the most wolf like so far, so he is really high on my suspected list.

This is what I want - thoughts and ruminations, and the reasoning behind them. No need to be elaborate or graceful - just to the point.

Sareln and Serdoa don't have much to say, do they? Are we really going to let them of the hook, by just focusing on the people who have something to say? I might just have to follow my own advice and vote for one of them. Let's start with Sareln

Once again, I commend you for taking a position and - most importantly - stating why. I would hope that you would go with your highest suspicion (Sandover, if I read you right?) before the end of the day, but at least you're putting thought into your actions. I don't mind if people disagree with me. I just want to know why, so I can make my own conclusions - after all, they could have seen something I didn't!

Roland your posts are really interesting but why are you making them so long?

Because it's my style? Which none of you will know because, quite frankly, I open my mouth so infrequently that it just wouldn't have shown before now. Also, I want my decision-making process to be as transparent as possible. That means a lot of "filler" - thinking out loud, if you will. If it bothers people enough, I'll try to be more concise, or start putting in a "tl;dr" bit at the end.

Um. Even after reading it for 4 times now, I don't get what you want to say with that. Is Sandover to be suspected because he disagrees with Haphazard? And why is Haphazard to be trusted more at this time or saying it differently: Why does it make Sandover a suspect if he disagrees with him? I know you presented more small indications but they were as hard for me to understand as this one.

Sandover is allowed to disagree with Haphazard. Lots of people disagree with lots of other people - none of that has led me to suspect anyone else with any true conviction. As for trusting Haphazard more, well... I don't. I don't trust him any more than I trust you. However, the evidence as I see it leads me to trust Sandover the least out of anyone. If you can't see that, I'm not sure I'll be able to illustrate it better (this may be my only shot to get in a post before the day ends), but I'll do my best if I can.

Do I understand this wrong? For me it sounds like "everyone who does not fully agree with me is suspicious".

Yes, you have it wrong. I've tried to be crystal clear - I encourage meaningful dialogue, thoughtful reasoning behind decisions, and the transparency of the process for everyone. The more we know, the better armed we'll be - and that will grow as more time goes on. Everyone is allowed to disagree with me - in fact, I encourage it, provided you can back it up!

For the record, out of everyone who has disagreed with me thus far, or at least not agreed with me outright, none of you have "raised my suspicion" any. My thoughts are much the same as they were last night - I feel Sandover is the most likely candidate we have for a 'Wolf at this point, based upon what little evidence we have to go on. That's not to say I haven't been keeping a list of further suspicions, but there's simply not enough evidence - by far - to indict anyone else.

Bottom line: agree or disagree, do not be afraid to post your thoughts, and especially your reasoning behind them.

But please those that stayed mostly silent give us your opinions. We need different viewpoints else we risk getting tunnelvision and acting like zakalwe.

My thoughts exactly.

So for me Lewwyn and sandover are the most suspicious. So my vote will go to one of those 2. As the current consens seems to be sandover my vote goes to sandover.

Can I play devil's advocate for a moment? Doing this is by far the best cover you could possibly make, seeing as how you have been raised as a suspicion by several people. Having said that, it's not enough to incriminate you - I still don't think you're a 'Wolf, although I'm far from convinced you're a Villager.

In any case, I appreciate the support. It would be nice to hear WHY you suspect Sandover and Lewwyn, if possible, but at least we appear on the same page with regards to participation.

(By the way - this is how I try to look at everything: objectively, from all sides. Otherwise, how can I claim to be making the most informed decision possible if I haven't considered every angle?)

As for the voting, personally I think that all this reading a wealth of stuff into a few comments is next to useless.
. . .
So keep up the good work with all that text, but I'm sticking to my current vote for now.

I respectfully disagree that reading something out of what we do have is next to useless, but I won't argue that there is at least some merit to your position. My thoughts are this: either we all elect to make no decision, and do little more than gather information (which, you say, is useless at this point anyway), or we do our best to take what we do have to go on, examine it to the fullest extent possible, and make our decisions based upon that. Essentially, we either "waste" time by doing nothing, or we try to use our time to the fullest. I do think that this first day will become more important as time wears on, but I also agree that for now, any decision will have a high degree of arbitrary reasoning and circumstantial evidence behind it.

I'd happily switch to Sareln instead, since they've only made one joke-vote post (on me too, but it was a fair cop so I don't care about that) while Dantski's at least said something, but I'd also rather my vote count.

While I'd obviously hope to get a vote on someone I personally feel is the most likely 'Wolf candidate, I can't argue with your reasoning. Especially your position that you want your vote to count.

Uberfish:
All I can say is thank you for making such a thoughtful, thought-provoking, constructive post. Frankly, I like your reasoning for choosing Lewwyn over Sandover - cover all the bases, rather than side with the masses. I don't agree with your lynch vote, but I wholly understand your reasoning behind it. Likewise for your Mayor vote. As far as I'm concerned, Sunrise is in the top 3 on my list.

Dantski:
Um... wow. I jokingly said if I kept this up someone was bound to vote for me as Mayor. I didn't expect it to be you though! :D I appreciate the vote of confidence, but I'm not really looking to be Mayor, especially since I think I've painted a big red bullseye on my chest. :P Moreover, I think we have 2 very good candidates lines up (Selrahc and Sunrise), but I echo your sentiments that no one at this point is truly more trustworthy than anyone else, merely less suspicious.

Uber has made me swing back and forth on suspecting him, and all I can come up with is to keep an eye on him. He's being Uber, plain and simple - and that means not giving us enough to go on either way at this point. The forming move towards Sareln has me curious, even if the reasoning is sound (albeit flimsy - not posting is a weak reason to lynch, although a valid reason to want to pressure that person into posting by voting to lynch them).

Scooter:
As with the others, thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts, and subsequently post your own. You're right - I did, and still do, hope for your vote for Sandover, but I at least have some understanding behind your vote for Sareln. As for voting for me as Mayor... um, thanks? I don't know what to say to that. This is beginning to become an unexpected turn of events.

Lewwyn:
Another vote for me? Honestly, I'm flattered at people's thoughts regarding me as Mayor. I don't know how to respond properly to that at this point. I guess I'll say this: if it's the will of the Village, I'll do my very best! I'm not making a play for being Mayor, though, so I'll just let this lie for now.

Serdoa:
Do your best, and don't feel too pressured. That's all anyone can ask of anyone.

I think that's enough thoughts for no, don't you? :D

[Ug the Barbarian]

Btw: I found something out I wasn't aware of that makes it easier to look up the posts of one player.

In the General Discussion forum click on the number right from this thread which represents the posts everyone did in this thread. You then get an overview with the posters on the left and the number of their postings to the right. Clicking on that number gives a direct link to all those posts one did here. So you can easily read up on what, for example, Cyneheard, posted till now here in this thread.

Sorry if you all knowed that, but for me it was news. I knowed that I could look up the number of postings but wasn't aware that I would get an overview of them by clicking on the number.

Thanks for the tip - I wasn't aware of that one and it'll make it much easier to track player activity as the game moves on

[luddite]

Well guys, I am trying my best to write down my thoughts (after I only asked questions in my last one). Please understand that I need sometimes a dictionary when I read your posts (:wink2: Roland) and remembering everything afterwards is not that easy for me. So I simply need more time to get through this thread and even more to reply - meaning I don't reply if I don't have 2+ hours time to actually write something, in the fear that someone otherwise will misunderstand. Also I am normally working from 8-17 CET (gone early today to have time for this) and sleep from 23-6 and when I am at work I can read here but mostly won't have time to reply, especially in lenghty ways. Much less getting my thoughts together for this game. If those "issues" are enough to kill me off, you can do that the next days if you want, I can't change that and I won't take vacation for a game... oh, and I have a wife too btw, she wants to talk with me sometimes as well

That's fine, I don't think anyone expects you to be available all the time. And more than half the people here seem to be non-native English speakers. However, one thing I'm starting to realize is that scheduling is a big issue for these kinds of games. Maybe for future WW games it should be arranged so that all the people can play at a similiar time? Or have one game for "active" poseters that can post multiple times per day, and another for "non-active" posters who can only check the thread once per day.

You are probably a wolf if:

- you don't talk much (...)
- talk much (look who are the suspects right now, some of them have many posts in this thread)
- explain your thoughts (don't say what the baner should do)
- you don't explain your thoughts (wolf who don't want to slip up)

For me, the order of suspicion goes like this:

1)People who have posted with big logical flaws . If you're innocent, there's really no reason to lie, and if you're not lying then there shouldn't be any big mistakes in your logic. This goes double for people like Sandover who seem like extremely clever players who should know better.
2)People who haven't posted much at all. They might be innocent villagers like yourself who don't have much time, or they might be wolves trying to hide in secrecy.
3)People like Roland who made very long and logical posts. It's very hard to come up with a lie that's extremely large and complicated, without at some point making a mistake. It doesn't mean they're 100% innocent of course, but the more they can do this, the more likely it becomes. And as a bonus, villagers who can do that are the best kind of villagers to keep alive.

So, my suspects right now? No one to be honest and everyone. I simply don't know. Sandover? Might be, might not be. Rowain? The same as with Sandover? Roland - similar. MJW? Baner maybe, maybe wolf... maybe devil. I simply have no clue. What I do know is that Sandover didn't have many votes on him and after Roland accused him, suddenly several people jumped on him. Pretty quickly. Maybe villagers which have seen the light in Rolands words - any maybe wolves which did see an opening to save one of there own. Either way, we know after the lynching.

I'm sure that know one knows anything for certain right now, other than the wolves of course. You just have to rank people in order of suspicion, and then take your best guess. If someone is just a little bit more suspicious than normal, that's still better than executing someone at random. Maybe 40% wolf instead of 30%.

[Sandover]

FINE. You're forcing my hand here.

I'm the baner. Yes, the real bloody baner. MJW is a wolf. And a decent actor, I'll give him that much.

I went on my crusade to prevent scrying him for two reasons:

a) It's obviously a waste of the seers time, since I know for sure he must be a wolf.
b) I wanted to make it look like I was the seer trying to hide by making suggestions for what the seer should do, so that the wolves would try to kill me (like how they went for fire&ice in ww1) and get blocked by my protection.

The only way I can explain MJW:s behaviour is that the wolves agreed to fake a power role at first opportunity. I mean seriously, who panics after 3 votes out of 21? MJW probably jumped the gun sooner than his pack mates would've wanted, but has somehow managed to get himself into a position where many trust him to tell the truth. I have no doubt several wolves have helped him get there, and that they can be found by analyzing what has been posted today in detail, which I've not had a clear enough mind to do since I've been busy trying to figure out a way to save myself from Roland's clever arguments. As you can see, I couldn't come up with much.

[Rowain]

In any case, I appreciate the support. It would be nice to hear WHY you suspect Sandover and Lewwyn, if possible, but at least we appear on the same page with regards to participation.

Simple because of their action once the screening of MJW was proposed. Now as you I have no problem if someone disagrees with me or argues with me but calling a 'Lynch Rowain' just because I want someone screened who is as equally possible a wolf as anyone other makes me wonder.

As for your thoughts on Sandover versus Lewwyn, obviously you know where my feelings lie. Initially I thought the two were working together, too, but I've since come to the conclusion that Lewwyn was merely following for the sake of following, not because he's partnered with Sandover. I could be wrong, but that's my feeling at present. Whether it pans out or not remains to be seen.

I still think it possible that those 2 worked together and find especially Lewwyn 's 'My main suspect is Meiz but I vote for Rowain' followed by 'My main suspect is still Meiz but now I'm voting for sandover because of Rolands post' abit disturbing. Is he really that happy lynching people left and right while his main-suspect is alive??

[Ug the Barbarian]

FINE. You're forcing my hand here.

I'm the baner. Yes, the real bloody baner. MJW is a wolf. And a decent actor, I'll give him that much.

I went on my crusade to prevent scrying him for two reasons:

a) It's obviously a waste of the seers time, since I know for sure he must be a wolf.
b) I wanted to make it look like I was the seer trying to hide by making suggestions for what the seer should do, so that the wolves would try to kill me (like how they went for fire&ice in ww1) and get blocked by my protection.

The only way I can explain MJW:s behaviour is that the wolves agreed to fake a power role at first opportunity. I mean seriously, who panics after 3 votes out of 21? MJW probably jumped the gun sooner than his pack mates would've wanted, but has somehow managed to get himself into a position where many trust him to tell the truth. I have no doubt several wolves have helped him get there, and that they can be found by analyzing what has been posted today in detail, which I've not had a clear enough mind to do since I've been busy trying to figure out a way to save myself from Roland's clever arguments. As you can see, I couldn't come up with much.

Well certainly one of you is a wolf and your arguement is slightly better - although it would also be a good one for a wolf to make as a last ditch attempt to save your hide (if only until MJW was lynched and then we'd have lost the baner).

Anyone any idea how to separate the two ?

[Ug the Barbarian]

Swapping my lynch vote to a more likely target now as I may miss the vote otherwise

MJW

For claiming to be the baner & now being disputed

[luddite]

FINE. You're forcing my hand here.

I'm the baner. Yes, the real bloody baner. MJW is a wolf. And a decent actor, I'll give him that much.

I went on my crusade to prevent scrying him for two reasons:

a) It's obviously a waste of the seers time, since I know for sure he must be a wolf.
b) I wanted to make it look like I was the seer trying to hide by making suggestions for what the seer should do, so that the wolves would try to kill me (like how they went for fire&ice in ww1) and get blocked by my protection.

The only way I can explain MJW:s behaviour is that the wolves agreed to fake a power role at first opportunity. I mean seriously, who panics after 3 votes out of 21? MJW probably jumped the gun sooner than his pack mates would've wanted, but has somehow managed to get himself into a position where many trust him to tell the truth. I have no doubt several wolves have helped him get there, and that they can be found by analyzing what has been posted today in detail, which I've not had a clear enough mind to do since I've been busy trying to figure out a way to save myself from Roland's clever arguments. As you can see, I couldn't come up with much.

No, I'M the real baner!

But seriously, if what you say is true, then how do you explain this?

Ok, this I can agree with.

See above. Rowain being a wolf would confirm MJW's innocense beyond reasonable doubt, imo.

You tried to get Rowain lynched, and argued that Rowain being a wolf would prove MJW innocent. Why were you trying to make an argument for MJW's innocence?

[scooter]

Unbelievable. Going to need to figure out how to digest this. I'd like to hear from MJW on this too. Sandover's stance as the real baner does make more sense than MJW's, so I don't know what to think now.

[Serdoa]

I thought about the same thing right now Ug. How to separate them, how to make sure we have the right one? I can't come up with anything to be honest, we simply have no one who can prove the one or the other.

So, do we want to lose our baner? No obviously not.
Can we examine them? Yes, with the seer.
Can the seer tell us what he finds out? I have no clue - I play this game the first time and I wondered already in WW1 how is the seer going to tell what he knows without getting picked by the wolves the next night?

I assume for now that we cannot get the seer to help us.

That leaves us with a 50%/50% chance to either screw us or get a wolf the first day. I am not sure if it is worth taking that risk, somebody out there who is better with numbers and can tell if that makes sense in our situation?