[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[Ceiliazul]

Global Techs:

I worked tiles to give max gnp during this research. (Higher gnp's reduce rounding errors.) The multiplier is where the action is, because pre-req boni are known, any bump above the expected amount is going to come from other teams knowing the tech.

Civ always rounds down, so our %multiplier is always LESS than the true multiplier we're getting. With 4 opposing civs, each neighbor gives a 6% bonus.



Everyone has Animal Husbandry, which we already knew. That tech is getting 1.4x for two pre-reqs and 1.24x for known civs. Total multiplier 1.64! Our early pottery has given us fast granaries and also a tailwind on AH. Note: If we spotted any tile-yields indicating horses in Commodore or Ginger lands, we might have changed plans. I'm pretty sure horse isn't near the capitals at least.

The real noodler here is Meditation. [strike]This chart shows we are getting the bonus from THREE known civs![/strike] Edit: Sim shows this gnp with only 2 opponents knowing the tech. Those have to be Kyan and Comm. I'm obviously missing something, not sure what it is.

The results of all this? Score 1!

And I discovered that I've stupidly been running 90% research for the last ~8 harried turns. We need AH this turn, then likely start binary research.

Score -1.

Global Pop: 23

Ginger: 6, 1
Kyan: 4, 1
Dazed: 4, 2
Ceil: 3, 1
Comm: 1

This analysis brought to you by the victory screen, and the top-5 cities screen. Both of Dazed' cities are on the top-5 screen, eliminating the confusion with Kyan. The names of the cities? Mecca and Medina.

GingerEagle's pop looks really good, but that's because he hasn't been whipping! A size 6 capital at this stage is a liability, frankly. Meanwhile our crop yield is 2nd and only 2 behind GE. Combine our solid crops with our granaries and we're the fastest growing civ out there! I'm not at all worried about our low numbers here, it shows we're making good use of the whip.

I do expect every opponent capital to get whipped soon for a granary. A settler might be another choice for Dazed. If horses are in any reasonable location, I expect a bunch of 3rd cities to go grab them. We may yet again change settler plans after AH comes in next turn.

[timski]

C&D

Ceiliazul was kind enough to send me the demos...

Commodore

PB7 spoiler:

Or Commo-toes...?

Sorry, but I don't know what Commodore is right now: How much longer can they expect their Kamikaze Warriors to keep them safe? Are they seriously still planning the Oracle?

Yes, Commodore did indeed tech Mysticism then Meditation. I appologise for doubting you, Ceiliazul, but hopefully you can see why I'm in disbelief. Ironic, given the nature of the tech. Dazed, the only other candidate for Meditation on T32, hasn't finished teching anything since T27 - they scored solely from population.

If Commodore now muses on Archery it will be 5 turns off: T38 tech, at best they'll get 1 Archer in by T39, maybe a second by T41, depending on how much they grow prior. On that basis, I'd definitely favour the Duck Hunt T34 whip, because the timing of that second Axe could yet be critical.

GingerEagle

No Warrior builds except those observed, so GingerEagle has 5 Warriors total, one presumably promoted but injured. Hard to imagine them coming at us with more than 2 Warriors, if that. And if they observe our (admitedly Commodore-related) T33/34 power spike, those 2 should decline to enter our sector: I'm not even sure GingerEagle has contact with Commodore (at best all they can see is that Commodore isn't doing too well via demos), so should read the power spike as Axes to counter their Warriors. Or at least be a tad cautious.

GingerEagle's tech rate is frightening: T27 Mysticism, T30 Animal Husbandry, T32 Polytheism.

Those last 2 are base cost 95 Beakers, and Polytheism gained no neighbour bonus. GingerEagle's GNP on T31 (while researching Polytheism) was 31. I presume they have Gold where we have Silver, which would explain why their (presumed) second Worker was so keen to get it mined and connected.

They're up to 45 GNP now - partly on the Hindu cultural bonus - but still rather high considering there is almost no tech that someone else has, that GingerEagle hasn't already researched. Maybe Masonry next, then Monotheism for Organised Religion (and another early religion)? Their early cities could become exceptionally valuable long-term.

Selhurst Park is still size 1, but put the first 4 turns primarily into hammers (Warrior build), so won't be growing as fast as Dazed's second city.

Dazed

Question: Does the game factor in part-researched (but abandoned) techs when determining the tech multiplier?

I have a hunch that Dazed may have started on Meditation too, but switched when they lost the race to Kyan. Maybe even switched to Polytheism, and lost that as well. Would explain the glitches we see in the data, and fits with Daze's lack of any tech whatsoever since T27. 5 turns without a tech is a long period when one has 2 cities and 6 population.

We know this, because Dazed has only scored on T30 and T32, and on T30 Medina (their second city) grew to 2, and on T32 Mecca (their capital) grew to size 4. Medina is now on the top 5 city list, since Commodore whipped down to size 1. Medina must have been working food (not Copper) to get to size 2 on its 6th turn. In spite of having 2 cities in the top 5, Dazed still does not have Pottery, so no Granaries.

Dazed lost a Warrior to GingerEagle on T30, which balances GingerEagle's Animal Husbandry for net 2 global rival power gain.

Kyan or Dazed gained a net 2,000 power between them on T31. I'll try and explain this in the context of Kyan, below. The most plausible theory is that Dazed built a Warrior T31, and one of Kyan or Dazed lost a Warrior on T32 (while Kyan also built a Barracks).

Dazed is growing their capital again now, perhaps after a Settler for city #3. They are also evidently growing their second city.

Kyan

The "unexplained odd power increase" on T28 is Kyan founding their second city (probably called Razor Hill, taking their total population to 4). Their other score increases are from capital growth to size 4 on T30, and Meditation T31.

As noted above, on T31, there's a net 2,000 power gain spread between Kyan and Dazed. Alone that could be all sorts of weirdness, because GingerEagle's power is so far out in front. For example, one builds a Chariot, while the other loses a Warrior. But, the following turn one of them gains another power point, which cannot be attributed to population:

Very likely we're seeing a Barracks on T32, Warrior built on T31, and Warrior lost on T32. Almost any combination is possible, but I'd favour:

• Kyan built Barracks on T32 - it fits aggressive perfectly, prepares them for their upcoming rush, and they have been growing for many turns prior.
  
• Dazed built a Warrior on T31 - they just lost one to GingerEagle, they've only just started growing again, and whoever built the Barracks shouldn't be building a Warrior one turn before.
  
• Who lost the Warrior T32 is anyone's guess. Maybe Dazed took a shot at Selhurst Park? Or Dazed and Kyan still have border tension?

If Kyan has built that Barracks, then I think we know what's coming next. And if Kyan whips their capital down to 2 all of a sudden, the nature of Commodore's fate may be determined by a couple of tiles of road...

[Ceiliazul]

Sorry,Bbut I don't know what Commodore is right now

I'm guessing he's willingly inhaling the cyanide. I'm relieved that he didn't go down with an empty capital, but I think his research choices show only his readiness to move along to the next life. (PBEM32,of course)

GingerEagle has 5 Warriors total, one presumably promoted but injured. Hard to imagine them coming at us with more than 2 Warriors, if that. And if they observe our (admitedly Commodore-related) T33/34 power spike, those 2 should decline to enter our sector

Well, that's making an assumption that GE even looks at demos. If he does, it will be *average* power that shows the biggest lurch. I like your analysis of warrior counts though, I feel just a bit safer on my Northern border. We still need to seal it asap to prevent a lone warrior sneaking behind the lines.

GingerEagle's tech rate is frightening: T27 Mysticism, T30 Animal Husbandry, T32 Polytheism.

Indeed.

Question: Does the game factor in part-researched (but abandoned) techs when determining the tech multiplier?

Another lurker would have to answer this, but they seem to have gone into hiding again.

Dazed lost a Warrior to GingerEagle on T30, which balances GingerEagle's Animal Husbandry for net 2 global rival power gain.

AH is worth 2k power right?

Kyan or Dazed gained a net 2,000 power between them on T31.
...
If Kyan has built that Barracks, then I think we know what's coming next.

Yes this is what I was afraid of. Shock Axes will not be kind to my own defenders.

Excellent analysis Timski, as usual. Global pop cleared up Dazed' scores nicely, and the odd power increases were well rasoned.

[timski]

AH is worth 2k power right?

Correct. I neglected to make clear that GingerEagle also built their final Warrior that turn in Selhurst Park: 2+2-2.


I'd love to be confident about Kyan's build and tech order. It looks like Bronze->AH->Wheel->Mysticism->Meditation. But that only seems to flow if they completed a Spear on T27, with Warriors built on T8 and T17, Warrior lost on T26. Spear here is not entirely illogical, because a Warrior build would auto-convert the moment they connected their Copper. Thus their current military would be one Warrior and a Spear (possibly plus a starting Scout).

Unless Kyan has skipped Wheel (no chance), their offensive military is certainly small. Even without the Spear, it would comprise only 3 remaining Warriors. Ergo, they are playing the same kind of high annoyance, low budget early military game as us. That's almost certainly why Commodore still lives: Kyan doesn't yet have anything spare to send in support of their Veteran. Added: And if Commodore has better information than us (likely they have/had graphs on Kyan), they may know Kyan doesn't have anything to spare, which may explain all their recent Kamikaze Warrior moves - the optimism talking.


Added: Just read this, from last Sunday:

PBEM32 Spoiler:

Commodore: "I probably shouldn't play while frustrated at losing a different game, but I was damn tired of warrior chokes, so I saw a 1 in 3 shot on the Quecha and took it. ... ...but it sure feels good to win one of these. Please note, if we were Chm, this warrior could have shock next turn, dunno why I'd mention that though. "

Mist: "Eh, honestly? When in doubt check the thread title " ("...or, an entertaining failure")

I think that means Commodore did indeed miss Goomba's double promotion. Although if there had only been 10% odds, their happy stack still would have been worth the hammers. Also rather suggests Kyan had been choking them prior, from the opposite side - presumably resulting in Commodore's lost Warrior on T17, yielding Kyan's Veteran's first promotion. (And is that why Commodore built so many roads to the south of their capital?) If Kyan has been choking them since T17, 15 consecutive turns of choking continues to beg the question, why tech Mysticism->Meditation while building a Settler? I accept Commodore lost some rolls, certainly wasn't Pedro-tastic lucky this time around, but their strategy doesn't seem to have adjusted for that. Sorry to keep battering Commodore, but I am genuinely confused as to why they didn't react when their situation first turned bad.

(Commodore should probably put spoiler tags round cross-game frustrations, not that it matters much now.)

[Serdoa]

Question: Does the game factor in part-researched (but abandoned) techs when determining the tech multiplier?

No. If a tech is not completely researched it has no influence on the tech-multiplier. Thats true for your own techs (for example AH researched, PH partly and you research Writing then you will only get 20% multiplier, not something between 20-40% for your part researched PH) as well as for enemy techs (if the enemy has not finished the research you won't get the bonus for known techs... which makes sense because that is a bonus for techs known by the other civ - not for techs partly researched ).

Oh, and as a game-mechanic addition: Barracks are imo 3000 soldier points.

[Ceiliazul]

Horsey Ran Away

At the end of the turn, we saw horse... way out in a 2nd ring city location. If the mirror holds, we don't need spears any time soon. I wonder how many teams even have visibility on horse?? I was even able to save a buck because 50% research happened to be efficient. Nice!

Both cities will complete their axe next turn. Whipping Mario was unnecessary because the dynamics of road movement meant the whipped axe would have to wait for the 2nd anyway. This is MUCH stronger economically, shaving ~4 turns off my next settler, and allowing a bigger Capital in the meantime. Bonus, less whip anger stacking.



Demo chart shows a lot of pop increases, and a scary Ethiopia tech rate... is that Priesthood already?! If he's going hard for Oracle, that gives me a big head start on the Commodore front. Commodore still has 1 warrior, and Kyan's veteran (0.7/2) is running away home. No jumps in power this turn. My axes may be the first 2 on the field!

Ginger Eagle grew again, to size SEVEN. Whip man, whip! Based on the city size and high gnp, he likely has silver connected. (Kyan likely does too, based on beaker rate.) Note that Koopa took a sharp left turn. If I held the line back home, Vince wouldn't see me until 2t from now, so hopefully that buys me a couple tiles in this hide an seek match.

Seriously Gingereagle MUST whip a granary or a settler very soon. He's working unimproved tiles now, he still only has 2 workers (else his growth would pause) and he's filling big food buckets instead of whipping every 6 turns on a small city. We'll show him how real soon here.



Demos:

[timski]

Thanks Serdoa. Both Ceiliazul and myself are evidently still missing something on that 1.33 Meditation multiplier... By accident or design, BTS has very few early odd-numbered soldier point increases, which makes a Barracks fairly easy to spot, assuming an opponent has neither Sailing nor Archery, nor valid population changes.

The best Moai site one is ever likely to see (3 inland water and 10 coastal water, including 2 seafood, plus a hill and 3 chops to get started) would require settling on the horse... +1 to Plako for prompting that choice. Regardless, it looks like there will be plenty of options for canal-building - even a humble Fort 1S of the Scout. (Added: Plains Horse does grant the city 2 hammers, based on the sim. Plus makes it hard for anyone to pillage the horses.)

(Do Forts carry irrigation like cities? Would only be an issue if we eventually wanted to move fresh water down the spit, and that may not be a problem, because I think I see a river mouth parallel to the mountain range. Edit: They don't.)

So Vince Hilaire is the hunter? I had them pegged as getting the kill on Daze's Warrior. If they were sufficiently undamaged to then immediately chase Koopa, their opening combat roll was exceptional. And with Charismatic, Vince has 2 promotions. Still, not going to save them from Axes. Or if Koopa can lure them north, GingerEagle's top scorer is effectively on the bench for 20 turns, unavailable should Dazed threaten GingerEagle's half. Ok, enough with the football analogies already.

I'd wager Dazed did take a shot at Selhurst Park on T32: They would have seen Hinduism found, and known the city had just one turn before gaining 20% cultural defenses. Like Goomba, the prize would have been worth the lowish-odds sacrifice, assuming they had enough Warriors in position.

I understand not whipping Mario Bros T33: I presume Axes out on T35 (single whipped T34) and T36 (overflow), then Settler starts at size 4, out T39 (2-pop whipped T38) - first Axe 1 turn later, but still gets 2 Axes to Commodore on T40 plus the Settler 1 turn earlier on T39 (2-pop whipped) - and syncs well with a Lighthouse next, if you go for Sailing next. More generally, I see no reason to minimise whip anger in these critical turns, when we're trying to expand aggressively, and have a clear happiness advantage.

Graphs Reveal... Kyan's Builds

GingerEagle should be global rival best in all 3 categories posted, so for reference, the graph scales are:

• Food = 22
  
• GNP = 45
  
• Power = 31

I've only annotated the Power graph, since there isn't much doubt on what GingerEagle or Commodore have been doing. The graphs are offset slightly due to turn order. I've shown the turn numbers to fit the graphs, so Commodore is shown consistently 1 turn ahead of earlier analysis. Obviously turns are along the horizontal, Power along on the vertical:



The only change from previous assumptions is that on T27 GingerEagle both gained from population and Warrior #3, with Warrior #4 on T28. My mistake was in not realising that Warrior power is gained the turn before we see new units move. That makes no difference to GingerEagle's final position - those Warriors simply added to their power a turn earlier than assumed. However, such a subtle change allows me to resolve Kyan's problematic builds: It means Kyan only gained 2 power on T27, 1 from population on T28, and another 2 power on T29 - Warriors on T27 and T29.

To recap, Kyan's full C&D:

• Started with Hunting and Mining. Fishing T5, Bronze Working T15, Animal Husbandry T18, Wheel T25, Mysticism T27, Meditation T31.
  
• Started with Scout. Warriors built T8, T17, T27, T29. Barracks T32. Lost Warrior T26.
  
• Orgrimmar size 2 T13, size 3 T18, size 4 T30. Second city founded T28.

At the moment there's a small chance that Kyan's T29 Warrior was something better (Spear or Chariot), but that would imply Dazed had lost at least 3 Warriors over T29-T32, rather than the 2 currently assumed. If Kyan was to build an Axe on T29, they also would have lose a Warrior, in addition to Daze's carnage. I think it is safe to exclude the possibility of a T29 Axe, and if we're right about the location of Horses, neither Spear nor Chariot are likely builds.

So I'm confident that Kyan's offensive army has been limited to 3 Warriors since T29. T29 Warrior also suggests that Kyan was slow to connect their Copper to their capital, and that their lost Warrior on T26 may have been related to that delay.

On T33 Kyan scored, without gaining power. Population demos also rather confirm their second city is still size 1. (Note that GingerEagle's Metropolis** means that rounding errors are coming into play, which will make confirming new size 1 cities harder.) So Kyan scored another power-less 2-turn tech on T33. If it's Priesthood, then they'll have to choose between Axes and Oracle. If it's Pottery, between Axes and Granary. It could yet even be Agriculture. I don't know how to read those options alongside a Barracks. Soon we'll either see Kyan's power spike, or we won't. Or we'll hear about the Oracle, or we won't. And be able to fill in the gaps accordingly.

Otherwise, T33 was a quiet turn for C&D, with nothing except growth by GingerEagle and Commodore. Commodore also got their Deer back.

(** Literally in Greek, meaning "mother-city".)

GingerEagle's Over-Population Problem

Happiness is a virtue - that is, the use of excess happiness for mass whipping up to the happy cap... GingerEagle must now be slow-building Crystal Palace's Granary. One of the few universally agreed truths of Civ 4 is that faster Granaries are always better. To be slow-building one at size 7, while in Slavery...

GingerEagle will get 14 food off the first 3 population (assuming Fish, Deer, wet Rice), plus 5 food from cities. Rival best food (25) is certain with 6 population still unaccounted for. And those remaining 6 citizens are yielding just 6 food between them. Not surprising, since GingerEagle is, by virtue of happiness (sic, see above), forced to max hammers at Crystal Palace or grow into unhappiness.

We know they have a Silver-like mine for 2, plains forest hill 3, plus Deer 1 and cities 3 = 9 hammers. The remaining 4 population needs to be generate 6 hammers and 6 food between them.

I'll start by assuming GingerEagle completed their Copper mine - 6 hammers and 1 food. The remaining 3 population would generate 5 food and no hammers total, thus one was willingly working a 1/0/3 tile. Improbable.

Instead assume GingerEagle has a second mine, just not a resource improvement - a grass hill mine, for 1/3/0. The remaining 3 population are now generating 5 food and 2 hammers. 2 population on grass forests, and a 2/0/3 tile. Possible, but why prioritise mining a grass hill over Copper?

So assume only Fish, Deer, Silver-like and Rice-like improved, plus one plains-hill-forest. There are maybe 3 population working forest-grass-hills, plus 1 on Selhurst Park's unimproved Cows: 25 food, 15 hammers and ~12 gold, which fits the demos. Very possible, although I'm not entirely sure how they have attained 47 GNP while working so little gold and still having less culture/turn than us (Hinduism's 5 vs Stonehenge's 8). Added: Plus Palace = 19, plus 4 espionage and 7 culture = 30. With road to Selhurst Park plus 2 = 32. So they be teching something like Masonry, right?

So at best GingerEagle is working 4 improved resouces, a regular mine and 4 unimproved tiles. At worst, 5 out of 9 tiles being worked are unimproved.

Rival food average of 19, alongside our 2nd place at 20 and Commodore at 11, suggests both Dazed and Kyan are working around 19 food each, without much margin for error. Both Kyan and Dazed are working similar amounts of hammers too, between 8 and 10.

It would be just about possible for Kyan to reach rival best hammers while also having around 19 food and only 6 population, but they'd need 6 strong improved tiles to do it, and then likely not without Agriculture. And if Kyan is leading on hammers, GingerEagle would surely grow into unhappiness next turn, since they'd need to work 5 hammers less. On balance, it is highly likely GingerEagle is leading rival food and hammers.

Regardless, GingerEagle must be about to produce a Granary in Crystal Palace. And if so, maybe they'll follow that with a Monument? A Monument to their lack of effective slavery.

[timski]

No Barracks from Kyan... For some reason I didn't account for Daze's growth in the power, only the score: Dazed went from 3+2 on T31 to 4+2 on T32, hence earned the odd power point for growing their population to 6. That subsequently makes Dazed and Kyan impossible to split after T30. There's a net 2 power gain between them on T31, and nothing since (except Daze's growth). Likely that was Dazed, to cover their Warrior lose the turn before. Either way, no Barracks from Kyan. What have they been building? Maybe more Workers? Kyan hasn't grown much recently.

[Ceiliazul]

Game slowed by 3 people out of town this weekend.

Possible micro plan:

t34: sailing
Mario fin axe (fish, deer, plhill)
Duck whip axe (cow)
1,2,3 past cow
4 mine hill nne of Mario
5 farm rice

t35: (50% tech)
Mario settler (fish, deer, rice, plhill)
Duck whip axe (cow, rice)
1 road s of cow
2 chop ee of duck
3 chop nee of Duck
4 mine hill
5 farm rice

t36: (100% tech)
Mario settler (fish, deer, rice, plhill)
Duck axe (cow, rice)
1 road fur
2 chop ee of duck
3 chop nee of Duck
4 fin mine
5 fin rice

t37
Mario whip2 settler (fish, deer)
Duck fin axe (cow, rice, copper)
1 road fur
2 chop ee of duck
3 chop nee of Duck
4 move to cow
5 chop/mine plhill

t38
Mario axe (to 21/23) (fish, deer, mine)
Duck settler (cow, rice, copper)
1 move to Ft. Knox forest
2 fin chop
3 fin chop
4 move to Ft. Knox forest
5 chop/mine

t39: masonry
Mario lighthouse (fish, deer, mine)
Duck whip settler (cow, rice)
1 chop Ft. Knox forest
2 road NE of Duck
3 road NE of duck
4 chop Ft. Knox forest
5 chop/mine

t40: masonry
Mario lighthouse (fish, deer, mine)
Duck whip settler (cow, rice)
Ft. Knox (copper!)
1 chop Ft. Knox forest
2 move to rice (will road to North coast)
3 move to rice (will road to North coast)
4 pasture sheep
5 chop/mine

continuing:

4th city goes to North coast, 2 workers road and pasture cow. (If aggressive dot near fur, chop fur forest asap)

2 workers help Ninja Gaiden and captured Commodore city develop, pasturing sheep on t41 and mining copper on t43.

North coast city gets granary -> galley to settle the islands asap (worth +2gpt in every city at least!

Great Lighthouse gets massive overflow every time Mario whips. Hopefully slow-build as little as possible (depends on rival pressure)

[timski]

Initial Micro

I presume you skipped completing the road 2N of Mario Bros to get the mine and Rice farm to finish on T36.

Duck Hunt now isn't 2-pop whipping anything, which seems like a waste of happiness. DH starts the Settler while 1 turns off size 4, and then burns through 2 chops just to get it out in a reasonable timeframe, single whipping only on the final turn. I presumed the allure of working DH's tiles was too strong. Regardless, there are a lot of wasted Worker moves: 4 turns alone for Worker #2 and #3 while moving from their DH chops to the NE road. We're paying a high price for ensuring a founding chop into Ninja Gaiden (ex Fort Knox), and a founding road into the northern city.

The weakness in the Worker micro isn't in the micro itself - it's in requiring 2 chops for DH's Settler, which then leaves 2 Workers tiles away from anywhere useful. Unfortunately fixing that (by juggling the Axe - don't try this at home, kids - and completing DH's Settler a turn later), immediately creates another problem: Insufficiently early Axe cover for Workers in the north. Right now I don't much like any of the options, which probably means what you intend to do is perfectly good...

Thereafter

If GingerEagle is heading for Organised Religion now, they'll gain Masonry en route. And with 2 coastal cities, Sailing is going to be a very high priority for them. Plus they have plenty of chops available in their capital. On the flip-side, the Great Lighthouse isn't ideal for GingerEagle (Financial bonus does not apply), while GingerEagle should be prioritising elsewhere in the coming turns - Workers, Phalanx, more Workers, Settlers - GingerEagle's limited skill with the whip will make those builds time-consuming. Equally, Dazed isn't out the running, but has been behind on their economy, so can't be both focused on expansion and early Wonders.

After T40, it looks like the Lighthouse can be 2-pop whipped in Mario Bros on T42 for maximum overflow into the GLH (or potentially a turn earlier, if Masonry is due in time). With the mine-chop coming in the following turn, that's 40+ hammers into the GLH immediately. Unqueuing the Axe and whipping that takes us to around 80 hammers into the GLH EOT 45. But that Axe will need to stay a while to maintain happiness, while we start a Worker. Worker 2-pop whipped the following turn (T47), taking the GLH over 100 hammers EOT 48. We can then either finish the GLH on hammers, or throw in another 2-pop whipped Worker, and overflow the GLH to completion EOT 51. Those figures are a bit approximate, because for whatever reason my sim queued less than your 21/23 in the Axe. The 2 whipped Workers reflect land improvement needs, the need to stop MB growing into unhappiness, and the ability to 2-pop whip after the first turn of production. That in turn keeps the whip unhappiness manageable. We end with 3 stacks of anger, but we can have Silver available shortly thereafter and/or can produce further Settlers and Workers at MB. Mario Bros grows rapidly, so I'm not afraid to whip it right down at the end.

Agreed on the early Galley for the extra trade income. Does this map allow circumnavigation? It was described as flat, so I assume not.

Commodore

If Kyan's Veteran has now gone home, Kyan's anti-Commodore strategy was perhaps focused solely on allowing Kyan to build the Oracle - delaying Commodore just enough. Kyan isn't obviously in a hurry to invade.

Commodore's latest T34 Worker build - in spite of only having 1 Warrior to cover their entire choked-to-death territory - evokes the archetypal deluded dictator: Still intent on building a wonder because they're Industrious, in complete denial of their circumstances? I just don't get it, do I.

I've tried to determine Commodore's current tech from the demos, but the difference between Archery and Priesthood comes down to rounding: Commodore is rival worst GNP at 20 on T33. Capital (1) + Place (8) + Fish (2) + Culture (2) + Espionage (4) = 17 base. For Archery (1 pre-requisite, 0 neighbour bonus), 17*1.17=19.89. For Priesthood (1 pre-requisite, 1 neighbour bonus), 17*1.22=20.74. If Civ 4 always rounds down, 20 GNP would equate to Priesthood. But the slightest rounding error could easily yield Archery.