I didn't realize that DotF worked on ships in addition to land units. Have you figured out exactly what the range of DotF is? Does your Caravel get the bonus because it is attacking from inside your territory? Or because the target of the attack is within 1 tile of your territory? Or because the target of the attack is within 2 tiles of your city (ignoring any cultural borders)?
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Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]
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September 27th, 2017, 12:03
(This post was last modified: September 27th, 2017, 12:05 by oledavy.)
 (September 27th, 2017, 11:52)Mardoc Wrote:(September 27th, 2017, 09:50)oledavy Wrote: Turn 113 To be clear, I don't fault him for anything he has done in the diplo thread. My statement was not meant to be pejorative. While I do find it mildly irritating personally, him attempting to mislead others is hardly unexpected. I would probably be doing the same were I in the driver's seat of this game.
I've found Singaboy's diplomacy posts to be darkly hilarious, in a Baghdad Bob kind of way. I don't think anyone is buying what he's selling anymore, but we'll see.
So, going forward: 1)I kind of wish the Archduke hadn't blown the VA project in the diplomacy thread like that. What answer did he expect, "Nah, I don't have time, but I'm gonna try to bring it off anyway?" I mean, chances are Woden and Singaboy knew you were going for it anyway, but still. Every little bit helps. Now they know some of your production is tied up there instead of in military units. 2)Speaking of, I'm still curious what the balance of power is between you and Archduke and Singaboy at sea. I know Germany has the largest military, but how much of that is tied up in horsemen and crossbows? I feel like the two of you together might outweigh his navy, since I simply can't conceive of how he could develop his civ as well as the two of you AND build an army capable of invading the Vikings AND building a navy capable of matching two navally-oriented civs before even bringing those conquered cities out of occupation *all at the same time*. So essentially, there may be a window of opportunity here for aggression before Singaboy wrings much of an advantage out of the Vikings. If England can get to frigates not too far behind the Germans, this game may be (briefly) competitive yet. 3)This is a metagame thing, but I'm wondering if the proper play in multiplayer is shaping up to be ignoring settlers beyond your first 3 or 4 cities (even that may be too many) and sniping neighbor cities instead. Looking at the belt of nicely placed but slowly growing Japanese cities, I feel like that the investment in hammers they represent might be the difference between you and Germany's positions. Won't be able to know for sure, though, until reading Singaboy's thread after the game!
I Think I'm Gwangju Like It Here
A blog about my adventures in Korea, and whatever else I feel like writing about. (September 27th, 2017, 22:02)Singaboy Wrote: Goodness me. I can't tell if he actually believes this or not. Does being in the situation just blind you to how strong you actually are?
Quoting myself from the Organizing Thread, regarding full diplomacy:
3. It creates a lot more bad blood. Go look at the PB2 forums if you need any proof of this. It's hard to get too mad at someone for backstabbing you when for all intents and purposes they're just units on a screen. When it's someone you've been talking to for months finally plunging the knife into your back because there can be only one winner, it's a lot more personal. Conversely, this makes people less likely to play optimally to win and break NAPs that need to be broken because they want to maintain their reputation as an honorable player. In fairness though, I did ultimately concede to a public diplo thread. So I bear some culpability in this. I've not enjoyed the pall it has cast on this game though. It means that the resentment that's boiling in your thread the entire game has an outlet. It also impacts people's in game decisions based on how they feel about the other players based on diplomacy. It's not like a board game where its all said and done in a few hours. It gets to simmer and boil for months on end, and people get a lot more invested. For example, I would still probably be a bit annoyed with Woden were there not a diplo thread. Since there's a diplo thread where I get to see him being insufferable, and our otherwise somewhat neutral in-game relationship has been strained by our exchanges in the diplo thread. Anyway, Singaboy's really upset, and I get it. I would be mad too. I have been mad at the diplo thread at points in this game. For the record though, to the people reading along in my thread. I have never bluffed, lied, sandbagged my own position or puffed up an opponent's in the diplo thread. Regardless of its relationship to objective 'reality,' everything I've posted in the thread is exactly how I see things. Singaboy seems to think I'm playing diplomacy hard when its not my intent. I rate my position as being in the top 3, definitely, but my shot to win is a long one at best. We'll see if we can turn things around though 
(September 27th, 2017, 11:00)Cornflakes Wrote: I didn't realize that DotF worked on ships in addition to land units. Have you figured out exactly what the range of DotF is? Does your Caravel get the bonus because it is attacking from inside your territory? Or because the target of the attack is within 1 tile of your territory? Or because the target of the attack is within 2 tiles of your city (ignoring any cultural borders)? Yep! I think it's just within your cultural boundaries, so up to three tiles away but practically. With that being said, I was very surprised it gave me +10 strength attacking that tile. And yes @Jabah, I did attack it. I'll be presenting more information as I uncover it, but for now I think it doesn't recalculate the strength bonus until you move off the affected tile, so you can attack outside a city's cultural boundaries, but if you land on the tile you won't get the benefit there. I have discovered an interesting edge case/bug though, in the course of boating around units. If you embark a unit next to a city, within the DoTF radius, it retains that +10 strength as long as it's embarked. I was able to embark a warrior from Ceres and amphibiously assault a barb encampment on Saturn with a base 30 strength being shown, not 20. My best guess is that it doesn't recalculate your strength every move when you're in the water, unless perhaps you are attacked. This is not a major buff to DoTF, but it does mean I can have have some stronger amphibious landing options down the road. Attacking from the water is normally -10 strength. But if I embark in the right places, I can effectively be landing as if I was not. (September 27th, 2017, 16:10)Chevalier Mal Fet Wrote: I've found Singaboy's diplomacy posts to be darkly hilarious, in a Baghdad Bob kind of way. I don't think anyone is buying what he's selling anymore, but we'll see. I'll be curious to hear your responses to his latest posts then  I'll respond to your points tomorrow. I'm typed out for the moment.
So, with all this sound and fury, I wanted to take a moment to articulate some of my broader thoughts on the game at present. Partially because it will illuminate the strategy post I'm putting up later today (and the moves I'm planning in the coming turns), and partially as an alternative view to Singaboy's "I'm totally screwed" outlook on the game.
Without further ado. Why None of This Actually Matters and Singaboy is Still Going to Win So, on the surface, Singaboy's position may look rather dire. He has the #2, #3, and #4 players all dogpiling him, with only the #5 player aiding him. However, a combination of factors including the map and the difficulty in organizing a dogpile are going to ensure he comes out of this okay. Let's go player by player. Archduke - Archduke probably poses the biggest threat to Singaboy. He has a great admiral that will stick work on his ships. He has a decent sized fleet and army (still dwarfed by Singaboy's nearly 2 to 1), but most importantly, he has lots of gold. The problems I'm going to encounter in mobilizing to fight the Germans are not faced by the British. He can build Quadriemes with Maritime Industries, and generate enough gold to upgrade one to a frigate every 1.5 turns or so. His biggest threat? I have no idea how close he is to Square Rigging. Singaboy will have had Square Rigging and Press Gangs for quite a few turns before Archduke. This means that while Archduke will likely have a bigger fleet, it won't be overwhelming. Moreover, there is an acute danger that Singaboy will pre-emptively strike him and eliminate the quadriemes before they can be upgraded. But it doesn't end there, and this will be a theme in the discussion of my ability to attack Singaboy too. Unless a city is has at least 2 adjacent coastal tiles, it is basically impossible to take from the sea. There are likely only one or two cities on Singaboy's coast with Archduke that can be taken without a major land component. A human player with anything resembling halfway decent defenses will be extremely hard to make progress against. And Singaboy has had plenty of time to prepare. In sum, while I do expect Archduke to be the most successful of us three, I honestly can't see him taking more than one city and then stalling out as Singaboy equalizes their fleets. Singaboy has a 4 tech lead on Archduke, and is not making about 25 more SPT than him. Archduke will basically permanently be on the backfoot, and in the all or nothing littoral that is the sea, be in a lot of danger every time Singaboy reaches the next generation of naval tech before him. Woden - So, the big break in this last round of diplo was Woden ostensibly coming on board. I don't believe it will amount to anything. Why? Well, first off, he has an NAP for 15 more turns, so he won't be playing a role for awhile. Critically though, While Woden is saying he's on our side, practically he's not because of the stipulation that he won't attack the Germans if Archduke attacks first. Well, not attacking the Germans is as good as letting Singaboy win, so Archduke has to. Moreover, Archduke has to because of his Defensive Pact with me. So practically, Woden doesn't have to do a damn thing by the wording of his deals. Now, he may opt to do so, but I consider it much more likely he tries to fly under the radar and build/take Jerusalem in that time. He's gunning for his UU battleship (a contingency I have planned for), and if he can get others to prevent Singaboy's win in the interim, he will. Myself - Archduke can attack as soon as he gets square rigging due to his huge treasury and GPT. While I will be able to upgrade a couple quadriemes, I'm for all intents and purposes left waiting for Press Gangs to get here - still 8 turns away. Given the time it will take me to mobilize a fleet, even with pre-building, my fleet won't be reaching German waters until t130/t135. Finally, if the Spanish come knocking, I will have to detail some of these fleet elements off to parry his thrust at the Belt. Moreover, I suffer from the same problems that accompany attacking a city amphibiously. Most cities are just immune to attack without a lot of army coming along (and Singaboy has more army in former Norway than I can hope to muster against him). Realistically, only the cities of Jotunheim and Toronto (I'm expecting him to take the CS soon) are vulnerable to attack, and I won't be able to mobilize forces to take them for another 20 turns or so. Plenty of time for him to build additional defenders and make taking them near impossible. So yes, it is a 3 v. 1. But realistically, only Archduke poses a significant threat. Woden probably won't participate, if he will it will be half-assed. I won't be able to fully participate for about 20 turns, and I'm likely to be side-tracked by the Spanish. It's not a 3v1 so much as it is a 1.5 v. 1. And Singaboy has 2.5 civ's worth of production. This is not to say this diplomatic alignment accomplishes nothing. Rather, it does do a couple things: 1. It forces Singaboy to spend some of his hammers in walls, land units and ships rather than infrastructure.. 2. It opens the door to future cooperation now that we're all somewhat aligned. Realistically though, while this war will stem the bleeding, it's not going to change the overall trajectory of the game. Singaboy will optimistically lose 1-3 cities, and will spend production in military. However, this latter point will be largely moot because Archduke and I will also be spending everything in military too. The overall arc of the game is going to remain the same. Singaboy's science is going to continue to grow linearly faster than mine. I have a two tech lead on him at present, it's probably going to evaporate in about ~20 turns. We're at rough culture parity. He's going to leave Archduke in the dust in both categories. And with 2.5 civ's worth of production, he's going to have little difficulty leveraging his production into better military down the road. Moreover, there is no way this alliance lasts - especially if Woden follows the wording of his deal. I have seen too many ineffectual dogpiles to think that this is going to be the one that actually succeeds. The most we can truly accomplish is actually psychological, angering Singaboy, panicking him, and causing him to make mistakes. But, I'm not optimistic that any of the recent discussions in the diplo thread are going to change anything on the ground. The fact that he has double the cities of anyone else, combined with Hansas, means he can build himself out of any problem any likely combination of players throws his way. This is why in the diplo thread I've been using the verb 'contain' in reference to this dogpile. We can't conquer him, or stop him, we can only stop him from running over another player. We can only partially contain him at that, he already has the land he needs to win. We can marginally decrease the slope of his accumulating advantages. For anyone besides Singaboy to win this game, they're going to need a game changer. Like another player's territory or Venetian Arsenal.... More to come. |
What should he be doing instead?
