Suboptimal IV: Indonesian Insanity

[suboptimal]

I didn't realize you could faith build monuments under any circumstance. That's new. Under R&F the monument generates +1 Loyalty and +1, with an extra +1 if loyalty is at 100% in the city (ie it functions like a vanilla monument if fully loyal).

Regarding using Colonization for settlers we'd have to see where the build priorities are at that point in time. If our Holy Sites are at +3 or +4 total adjacency and we need mainland military then Scripture, while slower, might be wiser to get some extra faith for settlers.

For civics G&R and Def Tactics probably don't get boosts unless we delay G&R for Construction but I think we can get two builders out to get farms down...somewhere (island, probably, plus one at Punky's).

We still need 1-2 turns for Archery (my timeline didn't have Archery slotted in the order - it's whenever it makes the most sense absed on slinger production). The island chop & mine could go into an archer, giving us 112.5, completing it and overflowing 67.5 into a water mill. Completing that would net the city +2/+1roduction and take 4 turns off Construction and get us the inspiration for G&R. It doesn't speed up the civics queue but the time spent waiting for Construction could go into Theology so that Scripture unlocks once we get the GP and found our religion.

Feudalism would take more than 8 turns. If don't settle a fifth city coastal our culture rate is around 18 after the Govt Plaza completes. Feudalism has a cost of 330 as it's a Medieval civic (20% cost increase), 220 if we get 6 farms down. I come up with EoT86 in Sandbox Land.

We could build culture by planting a second city on the island (there's iron 2SW of the northern crabs). Location options would be:

- On the Mercury: fresh water, lots of Kampungs, additional science, can swap sugar with city #1 and possibly get district adjacency later on. Puts iron 4th ring.
- Plains 2SE of crabs. Iron & Mercury 2nd ring, no/limited Kampungs unless the lake has something, no district synergy and slow grower
- Jungle W of crabs: 2 GFH and 1 PJH for chopping. Kampungs with Iron 2nd ring, whales 3rd ring, leaves mercury for later settlement.

I think the third spot using Magnus to chop out the forests into a harbor (two forests = 1 district with Magnus) NW of crabs would be the way to go. Also need to figure out if the first island city gets a crappy Holy Site or a crappy Campus first.

Of course, there is one bigger issue here. We're waiting on Turn 46. Gathering Storm drops February 14th. If we do one turn a day from Thursday until Feb 14th we'll be playing Turn 66 on Feb 13th. If we can get 2 turn weekend days over Feb 2/3 and 8/9, that's Turn 70. I can also try to swing morning turns to push that out a bit (though I don't like morning turns that are complicated because that's when errors happen most frequently). Let's say that the planned Magnus chop on the island on T67 is the last overflow opportunity and any planning past that point is under the patch rules of corrected overflow.

[Cornflakes]

I didn't realize you could faith build monuments under any circumstance. That's new. Under R&F the monument generates +1 Loyalty and +1Icon_Culture, with an extra +1Icon_Culture if loyalty is at 100% in the city (ie it functions like a vanilla monument if fully loyal).

For some reason I was under the impression that city center buildings could also be purchased with faith under Monumentality dedication. But in looking at the description again that appears to be incorrect. I must have been thinking of Valletta suzerain ability. I'll take a look at the culture again, I thought you could get a higher rate going but maybe not.

[suboptimal]

I just looked at the Monumentality description again, and no, only civilian units can be bought. However, each completed district is +1 era point. Something to keep in mind as we work towards a Golden Renaissance.

[suboptimal]

Turn 46

Archduke is back, turn’s come around, let’s see if Woden is letting us pass through unmolested…open the save and...




2 era points and we’ve suzerained Carthage. One era point to go. It’s otherwise quiet. Woden did pick up a tech, as did Archduke and Rowain. Let’s get the mundane out of the way and then I’ll check out Macedonia.

Builder disembarks, iron will be connected in three turns. State Workforce is too close to completion to put another turn into, I switch to Military Tradition. I’ll run that this turn and next, then complete State Workforce and get Magnus picked up.

Over on the island I give the camp another whack. Take 29 damage, give 26 damage. We’ll heal up a bit next turn then finish them off. The galley proceeds along the snowy southern side of the island and finds another iron:




It’s fourth ring to the planned island city. So close but yet so far. Cornflakes, the other iron on this island is visible at the top of the image. It is not worth moving this city location for the iron, I think.

Galley at Punky’s moves out with 64/100 health. Its objective is to defog the entire western and northern coast, perhaps arriving at Woden’s capital in time to cause some mayhem. I will note that if we are at war and the galley has an opportunity to attack the capital by itself I’ll probably take it to get a promotion out of the deal.

Eastern warrior continues its march to the sea, finds another cliff in the way so will need another turn of travel to get there. It could be at the coast SE of Methone on Turn 56. Something to keep in mind for later. Up next,




Carthage had iron in the fog. If Carthage mines it (and I do hope the AI does that soon) we’ll be able to build swords with Agoge. As predicted my own warrior is now within Carthage’s territory. Unfortunately the Carthaginian warriors will take four turns to assemble by my warrior and one for the sword upgrade. Levy is still 80, Dr. Forrester tells me to push the button (though my name’s not Frank) and I’ve got two more warriors in my army. Notably, that gets me the inspiration for Mercenaries.   I set my own warrior to fortify and heal. Oh, it also guarantees us a Golden Age because we got our 24th era point by levying the Carthaginian troops.

Now for the main event...Macedonia. The wide view:




Woden has fortified everyone. That’s a clear sign of “get you off to the west you Indonesian” Hey now, no need to be rude!   We get the message. I move to the desert W of the city center. This defogs not much of anything due to the hills but does reveal a mountain 2NW of my new position. I’ll get up on the copper next turn to look around.

Strategic view confirms that Woden is building out his Encampment. No forests have been harmed in its construction (yet) so there’s some time. The district will cost him 78 to build. I send the warriors along the southern edge of the land spit to see what’s up there...cliffs, some jungle and there’s coast to the east.




Might be a coastal bridge to an island, might not be (interesting…). These guys have a couple of turns to explore so I’ll do just that before hauling ashore. My plan there is to land one warrior in the forest 2E of the rice and the other in the jungle directly SE of the Encampment on the following turn while the first one moves to the tile E of the Encampment.

The new population at Sound pushes our yields up accordingly because we’re now working the pearls again. Culture didn’t move any because we lost the 5% amenities bonus for the time being. Sound acquired the grassland hill NE of the iron at some point and will be taking the grassland hill W of the dyes in 5 turns. Up at Punky’s that city will grab the fish in 9 turns. It’s settler will be out next turn. The main thing is our gold situation: 116 in hand and making 13 per turn. We need to get to 160 to upgrade two warriors and will have that in four turns.

You can see the various stats reported by CQUI in the upper right. Civ 6 is reporting Woden at 73 milpower, 8.8 (fourth), 5.9 (second) and he’s at 9+5.5/turn . He has not progressed past the Bronze Working column yet. Iron Working would cost him 144, which with the eureka in hand (48) will take him 10-11 turns to get depending on this past tech’s overflow given his current science rate. We will be declaring war and at Alexandria’s gates in 8 turns. I think I want to try to keep eyes on the warrior closest to Alexandria. If I can lure it far enough away where it’s can’t get to the city in one turn that would be ideal.  I'm thinking to land the troops by the Encampment soon (now?) to get his troops moving southeast.  They're in good position to disembark according to plan and with the Encampment not completed yet he won't see them until I'm at his borders.  

Oh, last bit of news – Nan Madol is definitely in a unit crazy mindset. Since I’ve levied its troops it’s built three more warriors.

[Cornflakes]

All good stuff when you declare war on Macedon, I think your eastern warriors should fortify rather than attacking. If you fortify 1 on the encampment tile before it gets completed, your warrior will be able to immediately pillage the encampment rather than having to assault it (happened to me in one of my duel PBEM). Your 2nd warrior can fortify adjacent on the Sheep. This way you can heal back some HP, gain the benefit of fortify bonus, and (once military tradition lands) take advantage of support +2. I think you will be able to absorb enough hits staying fortified that you will be able to earn the promotions for healing. And even if 1 or both warriors die, it will only be because Woden devoted his entire military to dislodging you, leaving Alexandria open.

Screenshot with my initial thought at an attack plan (Each color represents unit movements on a given turn):

   

After looking at this some more, a couple questions came to mind: 
(1) Are the warriors in the east arriving too early? I think T47 visible / T48 DoW is just about perfect timing. That gives Macedon 3 turns to march eastward before you upgrade into swords, and by the time you upgrade they can't get back to Alexandria in time. In fact, after absorbing a turn or two of attacks, your eastern warriors could withdraw (or shuffle north if that makes them less exposed to attack but still threatening)
(2) Is it worth giving Woden an extra turn of warning about the Alexandria attack to only be able to hit with one sword on T53? You could hold the eastern warrior back 1 turn to avoid showing your hand for a turn, so that both swords enter vision on T53. Either option has advantages and disadvantages. Below is an updated plan showing the eastern sword holding back for a turn. You could accomplish the hold on either T51 (staying on the stone), or by moving 1NE on T51 and holding T52 (grass hill). Earlier attack, and the city will heal back 20HP on the interturn, but slightly more chance of getting off the first attack with either an empty city center or pre-classical unit city defence for Macedon.
(3) Do you want to wait until the last minute to mine the Iron on the turn you make your upgrades? I think that only amounts to a 1-turn delay (connecting on T50 vs. T51) so may or may not be worth the effort.
(4) I hope the Carthage warrior stays out of the way and doesn't cause delay. Moving the Carthage warrior 1NE-1NE give you more flexibility to take a wider route around Carthage if necessary than moving 1NE to start.

Plan holding back the eastern sword for a turn:

   

Here's an updated plan showing the eastern sword holding back for a turn. You could accomplish the hold on either T51 (staying on the stone), or by moving 1NE on T51 and holding T52 (grass hill).

Nan Madol is probably trying to get back to some minimum power rating before it continues building infrastructure. No problem there though since we need it to eventually put up a stiff resistance vs. a Macedonian attack.

[suboptimal]

My current plan of battle at Alexandria follows your first diagram - I'd rather get both swords next to the city even if only one attacks. If ungarrisoned that city would fall with three sword hits, it takes four if it's garrisoned. For Methone I think we go ashore now and relocate to the sheep and the tile SE of the sheep (E of the Encampment). The warrior at Alexandria will head for the capital - I want to see what's up there and get into a better position near the capital before a war declaration. I'm thinking to declare around T50 - that'll give Woden enough time to tip his hand on troop movements. Ironically, I'd like to see the warrior by Alexandria garrison the city. It won't slow the swords down much and it'll die when we take the city.

I'm also going to complete Military Tradition before starting Political Philosophy. That delays Oligarchy by 2 turns but gets us the flanking and defense bonuses, which the Methone forces will need. Oligarchy would come in between Turn 56 and 60, depending on rounding and whether or not someone else gets a Classical Age tech/civic and gets rid of the 20% cost penalty by then (that's worth 2 turns of ).

We have a warrior coming up the coast from the southeast. That warrior will be at Nan Madol on Turn 53. If land units can upgrade while embarked I'll use the barbarian camp gold to upgrade that unit to a sword en route to Methone (T53) and it would then disembark SE of the Encampment on Turn 57.

The galley from Punky's should get near Alexandria around T54. If the capital is empty and there's a nearby farm I'll probably use the warrior and galley to start attacking the city to earn promotions and beat down city defenses a bit while waiting for the swords.

Woden could have Iron Working in 10-11 turns or Masonry in either 5-6 turns (with quarry) or 8-9 turns (without), provided he doesn't already have it (he's got four techs). However, he won't have the gold to upgrade a warrior for 14 turns unless he finds some additional income. He's got 73 milpower, we know about 55. I assume he has another warrior somewhere.

Our "deadlines":
- Turn 60: Woden's earliest opportunity to upgrade a warrior
- Turn 67: Nan Madol levy expires EoT (three warriors)
- Turn 75: Carthage levy expires EoT (one sword, one warrior)

If things go to plan () I expect Alexandria to fall on Turn 55 regardless of any garrison present and be threatening one or both remaining cities by Turn 60. We will probably need to relocate Magnus for loyalty purposes if we take one of the remaining cities. That slows down the chops (and we might lose the planned overflow chops) but gives us the ability to buy in a builder and chop out a ram if we need it.

[Cornflakes]

I'm almost certain that embarked units can upgrade. If you will have a 3rd sword coming up from Nan Madol (I would disembark SW of encampment on the rice) then I think it makes sense to converge everything at Methone after razing Alexandria. 3 swords + 2 (3?) warriors should be able to accomplish that, whereas 2 swords + warrior + galley may have more of an issue at the capital (and 1 sword + 2 warriors definitely cannot take Methone). I think you need to have as much concentrated military force as possible rather than splitting up and trying to attack multiple targets.

If you continue to Methone as described above, then I'd have the northern warrior continue scouting out the capital and then position itself E-NE of Alexandria, such that its ZoC controls the squares E and NE of Alexandria and puts it under official siege. You would then have the option of letting that warrior participate in the Alexandria attack (with river penalty), or waiting it out and contributing at Methone.

Oh, and you have one more Carthaginian warrior bringing up the rear. I'd send that on the most direct route straight to Methone.

EDIT: and I'll have to look into the loyalty mechanics further since if you take Methone you should be able to keep it.

[suboptimal]

That sounds like a reasonable plan -- I would like Woden to finish the Encampment before we take the city, though. Saves us the trouble of doing a full build out on it and means we can build/chop swords there if we need to and only have one iron.

Someone at CivFanatics posted a formula update over the weekend regarding the loyalty mechanic.

https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/f...t-15338367

One thing working in our favor will be that the golden age will give us a 1.5x loyalty multiplier against Woden's 0.5x dark age multiplier, though the extra loyalty from the capital will slowly work against us. Based on empire scores his capital has three population and I expect Methone, if conquered, will drop to 2 or 3 pop.

Also found this: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/l...t-15335180

[suboptimal]

Apparently in one of the live streams (Sweden) Rise & Fall will see an increase in coastal pillaging yields. Hmmmm....

https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/w...t-15335505

[Cornflakes]

   

This is an updated diagram with the Northern warrior's potential movement sketched in. Turn-by-turn situation may dictate deviation but this is what I was thinking in general.

Great resource for the loyalty formula.

Domestic Pressure = Domestic Age Factor * Sum of [ each Domestic Population * (10 - Distance Away) ]
Foreign Pressure = Sum of [ each Foreign Population * (10 - Distance Away) * Foreign Age Factor ]

Loyalty Pressure = 10 * (Domestic - Foreign) / ( min[Domestic, Foreign] + 0.5 )

Assuming worst case the captured Methone size 2 with golden age, and Macedon capital growing to 5 and dark age:

Domestic = 2*10*1 = 20
Foreign = 5*(10-8)*0.5 + 5*(10-8)*1 [capital] = 15 ... if Woden hits normal age then 20
Loyalty = 10*(20-15) / (15+0.5) = 3 in our favor if Macedon is in dark age. 0 if Macedon is in normal age.

I also found Victoria's Loyalty Guild: https://forums.civfanatics.com/resources...ide.27114/ which filled in some additional info. It seems any other loyalty modifiers except for pop (and the capital) apply only to the city itself and don't project pressure. Also it seems all other loyalty modifiers are added to the loyalty value calculated above, rather than being incorporated into the above calculation. Some relevant highlights:

• Captured cities start at 50% loyalty 
  
• Captured cities get a -5 loyalty occupation penalty on top of everything else, but that penalty can be negated by garrisoning a unit. Sounds like one of the warriors will need to stick around and babysit. Maybe the Nan Madol warrior can handle this job for 10 turns until the Levy expires?
  
• Amenities may be an issue, giving -3 loyalty for negative amenities. You'll have Pearl + Dye for sure. Fox can be added easy once island city is founded. Sugar requires researching Irrigation. Farming the island city's wheat would trigger the eureka as well as 1/6th of the Feudalism eureka. That sounds better than harvesting that I was previously thinking.
  
• The +8 from a governor looks more than sufficient to counteract loyalty pressure. Even in worst case of normal age Macedon, the governor can counterbalance both the occupation + negative amenities penalties. We can therefore keep an eye on the loyalty situation and wait to relocate the governor. If we see loyalty dropping we can decide when it makes sense to relocate a governor to keep loyalty positive.
  

Given the pressure above it seems like we will not be under strong loyalty pressure. If anything it looks like we will be slightly positive even without dropping a governor in, due simply to the fact that Macedon will only have their capital exerting pressure.