[Spoiler] Suboptimal Goes on a Pseudorandom Walk

[suboptimal]

Turn 131 World Congress

It’s time for another round of Ed Beach’s World of Random Diplomacy! In this round our contestants are being asked the following questions:




Sovereignty is meh. I don’t know that I want to put more than my freebie vote into this, especially given the next one on Great People. This one is likely to just get the freebie votes. I’ll vote A for Scientific and see what happens. If Woden has a good city-state maybe he puts a couple of votes in here and saves me the trouble on the next question.

Patronage is where all the votes are going, especially since the first question is rather useless given the meh city-states in the game. I may be about to get screwed over. I’m due for two generals over the next 15 turns (T135, T146) and without at least one of them my intended attack on Pindicator is toast. Given that of all the types it’s Great Generals where I’m outclassing them bigtime (11 for me, two for each of them) it’s likely that I’m about to have my plans scuttled.

There are two ways I could try to game this vote, neither of which is likely to succeed if they both pick B with the same GP type:

- Throw everything at A and pick Engineers
- Throw everything at B and pick Admirals, hoping that Woden did likewise and picked something that’s not generals.

I can give 5 votes, Woden can do 6 and Pindicator can do 3. Woden, in theory, could vote to deny another type of Great Person as a Great General (or three, as would be the case) does not stand to harm him in the short or intermediate term. I think they’re likely to put all 9 of their available votes into option B but whether or not they’ll match types remains to be seen. I’ll vote B and go for Admirals and cross my fingers.

I’ll wait for the World Congress vote results to before moving forward with my battle plans for invading Incaland. Between Pindicator’s buildup and being denied Great Generals I don’t know that moving forward with the plan would be a good idea.

[suboptimal]

Turn 132

It’s Time To Play World Congress. Top two resolutions are on the board. SURVEY SAYS!




OK...so I’m down a few Great People points from the result in Sovereignty. Woden put 4 votes to city-states and Pindicator put his free vote to it. However, I got lucky on the Patronage vote:




So, B passes but the targets are tied and there’s none displayed so…




I managed to game the system and have it come out to my benefit! Had I voted for option ‘A’ I’d be out my Great Generals. They get their admirals and I get my generals. The vote has had some effect, though, as I lose Bologna’s suzerain bonus and the Great Person Points that came with it. James of St. George is delayed out to Turn 150. Isaac Newton would be 20 turns out but Pindicator will get him in 17. I still get El Cid in three turns and the following general will be still be gotten at Turn 145. I can breathe a sigh of relief and continue planning.

In other news, Woden built the Hanging Gardens. Victor is established at LFSR. I’ve also earned an envoy via point generation. Anywhere I want to send that one? Not right now. Looking at deal screens to check resources shows no new production starts. It also shows that Pindicator is not running Equestrian Orders and has only one horse hooked up. That is good to know if some cavalry shows up.

Catapult at Threefry completes, that two of five. Great people, scout and warriors continue their planned scouting routes. Chariot at LFSR has moved into the warrior’s former position and will hang tight there.

Down south, look what turned up:




It shouldn’t be able to get past the warrior as it’s in a 3MP cost tile with a 2MP one behind it. I guess we’ll see if he has Cartography or not.

[suboptimal]

Battle Plans

CMF requested it, so here it is, Cunning Plan v 15.0alpha.

LFSR Theater

As of T145 my intended unit positions are:




Why Turn 145? Because I’ll have 40 niter ready to go. On Turn 145 the catapults, except for the one in reserve outside LFSR’s territory, will upgrade to bombards.

On Turn 146 the units will start to move (T146 in yellow, T147 in blue).




War is declared on Turn 148 with the units in the following positions (provided Pindicator doesn’t declare first):




The marked bombards will fire at the Encampment and the knights will attack with the center one first. The remaining knights will attack in a manner so that only one (the one on the left) is potentially exposed to the city center’s attack. If only two knights are required then El Cid will advance NE one hex and the easternmost knight will move as indicated by the yellow line. Of course, if Medieval Walls are built this will take an extra turn.

The bombard directly east of the stone is there to provide some measure of covering fire if any Incan units show up on the jungle tile west of the Encampment. Likewise, the knight with El Cid can move up to attack any such unit as well.

Once the Encampment is taken the objective would be to place bombards in the Encampment and the tiles NE and W of it. This gets three bombards trained on the city. Triple-A would be in the Encampment and El Cid on the jungle to the west. Two knights would attempt to move along the mountains to the east to get into that pass, one knight would occupy the open ground in front of the city and one knight will stay in reserve. The mine next to the Encampment will get pillaged.

Hypatia would remain in Ralakesh until I defogged Abberath, at which point she’d move to gain visibility on the entire northern side of the pass.

Mixmax Theater




Horses will be in the shown positions and upgraded to coursers on T145. In the event I’m no longer suzerain of Bologna on T145 the third horseman will instead be within Mixmax’s city center. All three horsemen will upgrade to Coursers on T145. The upgrade is “strategic” because of the following factors:

- Their base movement rate is 5
- Their CS is now 44, which makes them able to withstand a crossbow attack
- They are Medieval Units

The Great General shows up at Acorn on T146 and transfers to Mixmax if I’ve got the math right. The coursers will stay here until the general arrives. At that point they will start to move:




That’s over five turns, hopefully with T149 being the last moves. That should put them in this position five turns after moving:




From this position here the three coursers and the general will regroup at the niter, with the one directly next to it being the one to pillage it. From there they will move to the open area northwest of Gruthkul. I’d like to pillage the iron and terrace farm across the river at Gruthkul/Arakaali, but that would tie up this group for five turns (three turns if I only try to starve the city). Unless I see that Pindicator has tossed everything he has at securing the pass at Ralakesh I think that I will instead head due east, using 3MP and then pillaging whatever I happen to be standing upon. I’ll try to get the mercury resource and Campus, then backtrack around Tukohama Reborn for the iron. I’d expect to hit military resistance near Gruthkul though if he has to throw a lot at the pass to keep it secure I might get a little lucky. Three coursers would be enough to take Gruthkul given current city defenses but they won't be that low in 15 turns.

Pindicator

My issue right now are that Pindicator is also building up military strength and could have one or both of cavalry and curassiers available to him. That would make taking cities a little tougher, but not impossible. The key is keeping the bombards intact. If they all die then I’ll be pillaging as much as possible to try to set him back for a bit while I rebuild what I can.

One possible route of attack for Pindicator is to open up some tunnels at Gruthkul and come through the mountains to try to get to the “soft” center of Acorn and Threefry. I’m going to do two things to thwart this. First, Limes will be slotted when Guilds completes. That will let me 1-turn walls at Acorn and 2-turn walls at Threefry. Second I may delay Threefry’s first knight and instead do an Industrial Zone project. That would be done in the same time as a knight (four turns) and secure me James of St George on Turn 141. I could then use him to put up medieval walls in Acorn and Threefry while saving his third charge for either Mixmax or LinCon. LFSR will start building walls after the current catapult build is complete.

[suboptimal]

Turn 133

Open the save, no notifications. A warak’aq has shown up in the north:




I still send Emile du Chatelet across the river into the desert. I’ll embark next turn and go up and around Yerevan. In the far east my scout meets up with land:




Don’t know if I’ll find passage down here or not. I guess I’ll find out.

In the central region Pindicator has sent his scout down for a look-see. I immediately send the catapults south to get out of sight before his scout finds them. I’ll keep them all in the open space between LinCon and LFSR until I need to move them into position. I have to assume he’s looking to see what I’m building and perhaps scouting out his own attack. I move the chariots around to block his paths across the river to keep him guessing. I don’t mind him seeing a knight or two, though he’ll know I have them based on the rise in my city defense next turn. Here’s how I wound up positioning things:




Of course, he might see the eastern catapult if he moves to the stone. That might give the game away. I’ve also realized after the fact that I should have left the northern chariot where it was (on the jungle tile). He would have had to move in that direction in order to see the chariot had I not moved it. Likewise I should have moved the chariot to the stone – he would not have been able to see the catapults at all. :gripe: Must...pay...more...attention...to...these…things.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

wow, pindicator really does have a solid mountain wall there - he's basically Mordor and Ralakesh is the Black Gate.

Personally, had I been in his place, I would have placed the Encampment either due east of Ralakesh or on the tile just northeast of the mountain there. That would seal the pass to the east and force any assault on me to funnel through just 2 tiles - my city and encampment. His encampment as placed DOES force you to deal with it, but as your plan demonstrates it's also vulnerable to being hit in the opening turns of the war and effectively removed from the equation other than tying up units. By being slightly more conservative, you can extend the life of the encampment and integrate better into a defensive network.

Still, his terrain is a defender's dream! Good luck punching through all that.

[suboptimal]

That mountain wall is why I was still alive after 50 turns despite being last in tech by a bit. The geography makes it impossible to really do much of anything unless you're willing to throw large numbers of units at it (and be prepared to lose said units). Mixmax is my equivalent to Ralakesh - barring mountain tunnels there's only one tile by which that city can be attacked. The advantage that Mixmax has over Ralakesh is that only one unit could move into position to attack, whereas at Ralakesh it's a wider front. If I take Ralakesh my only advantage in this fight would be that of omniscience, and even then only if I can defog Abberath's city center. The spy's visibility will let me see how Pindicator sets up his defenses and give me time to ponder how to punch through.

As for the Encampment, either of your proposed locations would have allowed me to take the city while ignoring the Encampment completely. Take the city and the Encampment is a non-issue. It would also make retaking the city that much worse if I, as an attacker, chopped out production to rebuild the district and the walls.

Speaking of mountain tunnels, here's the ridiculousness of them and the current game map -- they operate through contiguous mountain chains. If a mountain tunnel was placed on the mountain tile NE of Mixmax's city center a unit could travel from the tile NW of Mixmax all the way to the stone tile east of the Qhapac Nan...for 2 movement points.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

As for the Encampment, either of your proposed locations would have allowed me to take the city while ignoring the Encampment completely.  Take the city and the Encampment is a non-issue.  It would also make retaking the city that much worse if I, as an attacker, chopped out production to rebuild the district and the walls.

Speaking of mountain tunnels, here's the ridiculousness of them and the current game map -- they operate through contiguous mountain chains.  If a mountain tunnel was placed on the mountain tile NE of Mixmax's city center a unit could travel from the tile NW of Mixmax all the way to the stone tile east of the Qhapac Nan...for 2 movement points.

The purpose isn't to make an un-ignorable Encampment, the idea is to instead limit the approaches to the city. Yes, this way, you do have to deal with the Encampment first - but at the same time, the Encampment is thrust forward and is exposed, without the support of the city's defenses or any units at the city. By pulling it back a bit, yes, you can march up to the city - but you only have one tile to attack from, which is rarely enough barring a huge tech advantage, and you're under fire from the camp at the same time. There's room for only one siege unit to fire from outside the Encampment's range (can bombards fire over mountains?), so even though you don't HAVE to go through it to capture the city, you'll still want to deal with it anyway. 

And, of course, if you want to siege the city at all or use anything more than, hell, that single tile, you have to capture it and move through. 

Pin's location isn't a bad one, and it's certainly more conventional, but my own feeling is that forward Encampments are too frequently reduced on the opening turns of a war to be fully optimal. I could go back and find examples, of course. 

And I really hope Pin DOES put down opposite sided mountain tunnels. :o Or you do, with a military engineer. That'd be hilarious.

[suboptimal]

And I really hope Pin DOES put down opposite sided mountain tunnels. :o Or you do, with a military engineer. That'd be hilarious.

I'd rather not see him do that because that'd be bad new for me.  As for me, I've already considered putting down some tunnels once I hit Chemistry - Gruthkul is lethally exposed to tunnels without walls.  I don't know if Pindicator has realized that you can attack through them and it's something I'd try to pull off if he wasn't watching carefully.

[suboptimal]

Turn 134

I realized after some more thought that seeing only one or two catapults shouldn’t raise an alarm. After all, you need two bombards for the eureka for Siege Tactics. However, I’ll keep them generally out of sight until I need to start moving them into position. His scout has moved to the stone as I unintentionally “directed” it to. I also see he’s matching my milpower rise as he’s up to 480.

I see that there’s new gossip – the Incans and Persians are now trading with each other. The trading does not appear to be resource-based as neither of them are showing anything different with the luxury or strategic counts, unless the “loss” of a resource doesn’t show on the trade screen. Pindicator is still light on amenities as Arakaali is -3 to loyalty for lack of amenities.

There are a pile of notifications this turn. Astronomy completed, gaining me the Colonialism eureka. Reyna’s established in Xorshift and I got an era point for building a horseman in Xorshift. A knight has completed in LinCon and that’s raised my city defenses a bit. Xorshift starts its walls, Acorn has completed its second catapult and is starting its first knight as LinCon starts its second. I start Metal Casting and will run that down to one turn before switching to Mass Production. I’ll also finish Castles as soon as the last horseman is out.

All three catapults cross the river to the south to get out of view of the Incan scout. Horseman at Xorshift makes its way towards Acorn. The knight at LinCon moves up to the amber and will continue up to the district complex to sit, just in case. I won’t need it at the front for another 10 turns. Up at the Qhapac Nan a builder has emerged onto the bananas. I expect to see a plantation there next turn. I send the warrior across the river for a slightly better view of the situation and find no other units.

The warak’aq has moved out to the coast. I can move past it (and stop next to it) with du Chatelet but for the time being I’ll embark. Out east the scout keeps close to shore, though Woden has moved his galley over to the ice:




I am beginning to think that Woden is not shadowing my scout so much as he’s trying to explore the coastal areas himself. Speaking of moving to the coast, his horseman has found my warrior blockade. We’ll see if it embarks next turn. Murisaki continues moving west. I’ve almost got her across the map edge…




I can scroll to the other (right) side of the map and see the octopus, along with just a corner of the defogged ocean in the upper right:




The GUI, though, won’t yet let me scroll through the map wrap. If the scout can turn eastward soon that will make things a bit faster. Only got 7 more turns for 8 more era points.

Next turn two more catapults and a horseman complete. Threefry will start an Industrial Zone project to get those GE points. That will take five turns and will let me claim James of St. George. El Cid will be recruited next turn. The big news next turn will by Hypatia establishing and getting a good look at what’s going on in Tukohama Reborn.

[suboptimal]

Turn 135

I’m mildly curious to see where Pindicator sent his scout. I’m not sure if he has any idea what kind of recon I’m conducting this turn...but I’ll get to that in a bit.

Guilds is complete, earning me the eureka for Banking. LFSR’s trade route is also complete. I recheck my amenity situation – if I take out retainers then Acorn will go into an unhappy state. That’s not good. I decide to NOT slot Limes as originally planned, but I do put in Town Charters and take out Caravansaries. I send LFSR’s trader down to Mersenne Twister for a 6 trade route to Bandar Brunei. I look at the civics tree and start Diplomatic Service. That has nine turns to completion which is right where I want to be timing wise.

My science rate has shot up by 10. Where’d that come from? Oh yeah, Commercial Hubs are doubled adjacency and providing me with additional to boot.

Threefry and LFSR have completed their catapults so I’ve got the full complement. Threefry has started its Industrial Zone project and has four turns to go. LFSR starts a crossbowman, that’ll take nine turns. I start moving catapults eastwards, though staying south of where Pindicator can see them. Mixmax has finished its horseman so I shift the warrior to the lumbermill and the horseman to the Campus. Don’t need to reveal those just quite yet. The knight from LinCon moves to the river. Don’t mind having one of those be seen as it’s obvious I’ve got one. It’ll cross next turn.

Up at the Qhapac Nan the builder has chopped the jungle out from under the bananas. I decide to bring the warrior back south as, for the time being, there’s nothing to see here. Great people continue their scouting and my scout finds an ice blockage in the south. It will disembark the turn after next. Murasaki has coast two tiles in front of her so she may also be disembarking in two turns.

I take care of one remaining item on the to-do list and recruit El Cid. He shows up in Acorn and I move him to Threefry’s Industrial Zone for the time being. That’ll speed up knights moving through the area. Next up is Aethelflaed, he should be mine at Turn 147.

That leaves the recon. Pindicator has moved his scout one tile to the northeast. That’s “in the way” if it’s still there in ten turns. Ah, well, I’ll worry about it then. On to Hypatia. For lurkers this might be new news or not depending on Pindicator’s reporting, but for me it’s all new:




Three of the second ring lumbermills and mines to the SW are controlled by Gruthkul and the mercury is controlled by Abberath. The districts in the picture, from northwest to southeast:

- 4 Theater Square with Machu Picchu to the east
- 10 Commercial Hub with a market
- 10 Campus with library and under constrution university
- Government Plaza with Ancestral Hall and under construction Intelligence Agency
- 12 Commercial Hub with a market in Abberath’s territory
- 6 Campus with library and univeristy in Abberath’s territory.
- There’s also an Entertainment Complex being constructed west of the city center.


The city center of Abberath is located in the fog 1 tile east of the Campus. Here’s a wider shot with some context of the area, which I’ll now refer to the “Ralakesh Theater”:




South of what would be Abberath’s first ring the terrace farm to the SW belongs to Ralakesh and the marsh belongs to The Brine King. He has also built a road from the Encampment through Ralakesh’s city center and up through the terrace farms to Abberath as well as to The Brine King’s Industrial Zone, which is still under construction.

Militarily speaking, in the area around Tokuhama Reborn he has 222 milpower in units, using the highest CS rating for each unit that I can see. He has another 100 (warrior, crossbowman and warak’aq [ranged CS 40]) at Arakaali and 20 (warrior) at Ralakesh. That’s 342 out of 437 accounted for and he’s probably got 2-3 more units under construction.

It’s six turns to move to and establish in Ralakesh. That’s T141. I decide to stay put for one turn to see if or how troops move, given that none of these units are fortified. Then I’ll move to Ralakesh for visibility as of Turn 142.

The unit distribution and composition does relieve me a little bit. There won’t be a stampede through the mountains, at least for a few turns. Threefry will complete the project in four turns and I’ll be able to put down walls at Acorn and Threefry using the Great Engineer.