WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Kaiser]

I have less time than expected tonight, though standing out to me is:
-GES stating only Jabbz being in a unique position today to vote (why not Gaspar as well if he stays on me)
- GES saying that it would be a statistically risky play for wolves to bus Bob. He brings up a Meiz/Kaiser team later which would mean that Meiz would have decided for it.
- GES statistics in 1937 seem to be based on weird assumptions, villagers have a random 2/5 chance of lynching a wolf today before accounting for reads and bias. If there is a mislynch, there will be no tomorrow chance to vote, as the wolves would execute a night kill. 4 players with 2 wolves would not be decided on tie-break if I understand the rules right, instead the game would be over. The 1/4 chance tomorrow only is there if we hit a wolf today and Meiz does not use his ability.

Meiz, use it to your best knowledge, after the recent posts my tendency would be on either Gaspar or GES.
However I did not yet have time to read up due to a surprise visit of Mont St. Michel before arriving at the wedding we are attending this weekend..
I will have time tomorrow' morning.

[Jabbz]

Just how likely is it that we have 2 scum left? I'm not the numbers guys some of you are, but is that an assumption, or just a "it doesn't work without that" type thing? Is it possible for instance that there is 3 scum 1 traitor, or 3 scum, 1 traitor, 1 SK?

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I recall Omar was not a man of blacks and whites. You can & should take a look at votes, but you also have to consider other aspects. Just ignoring what player says and focusing on how the votes could fit with scum behavior can make anyone seem like a wolf, just a matter of how you present the facts. And you are right, reads based on just tone easily follow the same logic. If you take a look at Gaspar, one of his reasons to vote Kaiser today is thinking that his role claim is fishy. He does not go on to explain what in the reveal is fishy, even when separately asked. Are you ready to bank the game on his vote record? I know I was before sunrise flipped blue and the options got thinner. Maybe now is the time to take a look at the rest of the effort from his part and for example the accusation today he's presented for Kaiser being our best bet to lynch scum. From what I can see, they are just selling mental images for Kaiser's scummy play. In fact Bob used the same type of argument in D4 against Kaiser.

Omar think this is a lovely strawman you setup.  Omar is not banking everything on a voting record.  Omar is comparing what people say to the actions they actually took.  So when Robot has three straight posts saying he thinks Q is less suspicious and then votes him anyway, it is the disconnect between the words and actions that triggers Omar.  When Robot says you are one of his two most village reads and then votes for you not out of self-preservation, which Omar could understand, but because Robot now thinks you are a villain, it is the disconnect that registers.  Same for Simp having you as a village read and then voting you three posts later.  Or Simp expressing pretty heavy village reads on Talking Dog  (look at post #1,483 "Very town feeling here") until Talking Dog actually came under threat.  And then disappearing from the thread after turning on him.  Omar not just looking at the voting records.  

As for Doc, I still do not think his play the last two days makes real sense as a villain, but I will try to go back tonight and do a full re-read on him if the missus does not lynch Omar for reading this thread rather than spending time with her, given I spent the entire last weekend in the office or trying (and mostly failing) to keep up with this here thread.

This is simply not true, I've not been on your back this game for your activity, other than very early prod of hoping to get more instant reads from you from time to time.
  

If Omar wrong in this impression, I apologize.  Omar been stupid slammed at the 9-5 and has felt a mix of guilt and frustration at the general shade thrown his way about his activity level this game.  Touchy subject for Omar, and Omar sorry.

Here's your post for reference, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755249
You're right, you did not promise, but I consider your wording pretty much the same: "I’m willing to go where you go to at least give us a village voting bloc."
It's hard for me to say if just dropping off would be a better play for scum-omar, but I think you would be looked in detail if you'd refuse to follow Rowain after the comment you made. So if looking for town credibility (which would be the idea with your original suggestion as well), not following through on it would be the opposite.

Omar think there is a difference between offering to do something while looking for the assent of the other party, and promising to do something irrespective of their response.  But we can just agree to disagree on the semantics of it.

I have less time than expected tonight, though standing out to me is:
-GES stating only Jabbz being in a unique position today to vote (why not Gaspar as well if he stays on me)
- GES saying that it would be a statistically risky play for wolves to bus Bob. He brings up a Meiz/Kaiser team later which would mean that Meiz would have decided for it.
- GES statistics in 1937 seem to be based on weird assumptions, villagers have a random 2/5 chance of lynching a wolf today before accounting for reads and bias. If there is a mislynch, there will be no tomorrow chance to vote, as the wolves would execute a night kill. 4 players with 2 wolves would not be decided on tie-break if I understand the rules right, instead the game would be over. The 1/4 chance tomorrow only is there if we hit a wolf today and Meiz does not use his ability.

1)  Omar think this one is pretty obvious if you stop to think about it.  If Doc changes his vote right now, his options are Jabbz, in which case Doc is sitting in a 2-2-2 deadlock, or Doc can vote himself.  If you call that a choice in the matter, Omar and Robot do not agree on what constitutes a choice.  It is also worth noting that a 2-2-2 spread is probably the worst possible for us.  That means the two villains can just last second vote and win, since one of the three HAS to be a villager.

2)  This is why Omar has said over and over he does not believe Skelly is a villain.  It is not impossible, and you both voting together today makes Omar think it is more possible, but it is still not where Omar wants to place his chips.  That said, by voting you, Robot, Omar is also covering off this possibility.

3)  Omar thinks his numbers are right, but Omar majored in English Lit and Art History, so he open to correction from the peanut gallery.  Obviously asymmetric knowledge changes the actual percentages--Omar just looking at the raw figures.

Just how likely is it that we have 2 scum left? I'm not the numbers guys some of you are, but is that an assumption, or just a "it doesn't work without that" type thing? Is it possible for instance that there is 3 scum 1 traitor, or 3 scum, 1 traitor, 1 SK?

Well, considering we can account for the only extra kill this game with Old Tea Man's vig shot, Omar thinks the chances of a SK are effectively nil.  If there are three villains, then we have a much better shot than assumed, but given the powers revealed thus far, it does not seem likely that there would be three villains and one traitor in an 18 person game.

[Meiz]

I recall Omar was not a man of blacks and whites. You can & should take a look at votes, but you also have to consider other aspects. Just ignoring what player says and focusing on how the votes could fit with scum behavior can make anyone seem like a wolf, just a matter of how you present the facts. And you are right, reads based on just tone easily follow the same logic. If you take a look at Gaspar, one of his reasons to vote Kaiser today is thinking that his role claim is fishy. He does not go on to explain what in the reveal is fishy, even when separately asked. Are you ready to bank the game on his vote record? I know I was before sunrise flipped blue and the options got thinner. Maybe now is the time to take a look at the rest of the effort from his part and for example the accusation today he's presented for Kaiser being our best bet to lynch scum. From what I can see, they are just selling mental images for Kaiser's scummy play. In fact Bob used the same type of argument in D4 against Kaiser.

Omar think this is a lovely strawman you setup.  Omar is not banking everything on a voting record.  Omar is comparing what people say to the actions they actually took.  So when Robot has three straight posts saying he thinks Q is less suspicious and then votes him anyway, it is the disconnect between the words and actions that triggers Omar.  When Robot says you are one of his two most village reads and then votes for you not out of self-preservation, which Omar could understand, but because Robot now thinks you are a villain, it is the disconnect that registers.  Same for Simp having you as a village read and then voting you three posts later.  Or Simp expressing pretty heavy village reads on Talking Dog  (look at post #1,483 "Very town feeling here") until Talking Dog actually came under threat.  And then disappearing from the thread after turning on him.  Omar not just looking at the voting records.  

As for Doc, I still do not think his play the last two days makes real sense as a villain, but I will try to go back tonight and do a full re-read on him if the missus does not lynch Omar for reading this thread rather than spending time with her, given I spent the entire last weekend in the office or trying (and mostly failing) to keep up with this here thread.

You're right on me taking it to the other extreme to try to make a point, I know you're not just blindly looking at the vote tallies and decide based on those. But you need to look more at the context as well. For example Kaiser's turnaround for me. He has a town read on me and next thing that happens is me calling out his EOD post as a scum sign (it was based on his preferences to go after people I had just heavily banked on being town), and then me starting to scream how my power has been lost. So when I look at the posts, I can see why from his POV he would become more suspicious of me.

Same goes for Alhambram. It's true he had a town read on me, and votes me later. The facts state that there's a sudden turnaround and you think it's scummy behavior. Taking a look at his posts:
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755152
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755169

I can see where he is coming from. Influenced by the role discussion (me losing the role and others pointing how it's suspicious) and feeling bad for the Lewwyn lynch, while starting to look who pushed us there.

Sure, this is a potential save move for Kaiser, but I'm not getting huge alarm bells because I think he explains the reasoning for suspecting me and I can see where town would be coming from. Hell, maybe I'm wrong and we can then laugh at me in the lurker thread. But I feel like this is the context you are missing from your endgame today, and the conclusion for last scums comes too easily.

[Kaiser]

Just how likely is it that we have 2 scum left? I'm not the numbers guys some of you are, but is that an assumption, or just a "it doesn't work without that" type thing? Is it possible for instance that there is 3 scum 1 traitor, or 3 scum, 1 traitor, 1 SK?

Please take this with a grain of salt  this is only my 2nd ww game here and beyond that I played onle some offline ww.


Interpolating from WW47, I assume earlier in the thread 4 - 6 scum, with likely weaker/indirect scum roles involved the higher the total scum numbers get.

It seems like most people are running on the 4 scum + traitor assumption by now. I think people started coming around to this after thrawn was lynched.

The current game state tells us that there are less than 3 traditional scum, as the game would have been ended with the Sunrise mislynch

There should be no SK as we had no night kills beside Rowain and Brick stated in the setup thread that there will be only one traditional scum team.

So either 2 or 1 wolf remain, another traitor might be there.

[Jabbz]

Well I was hoping for more action before I went to bed but I guess not. Good luck Meiz. I should be on for EOD resolution.

[Kaiser]

So we are looking at some long odds here.  There is a 1/3 chance we lynch a villain today, and a 1/4 chance we lynch a villain tomorrow, and we have to get both right.  That works out to an 8.25% chance to win based on random chance.  Not great.

[quote pid='756520' dateline='1602881460']
Gold Ergo Sum

1)  Omar think this one is pretty obvious if you stop to think about it.  If Doc changes his vote right now, his options are Jabbz, in which case Doc is sitting in a 2-2-2 deadlock, or Doc can vote himself.  If you call that a choice in the matter, Omar and Robot do not agree on what constitutes a choice.  It is also worth noting that a 2-2-2 spread is probably the worst possible for us.  That means the two villains can just last second vote and win, since one of the three HAS to be a villager.

3)  Omar thinks his numbers are right, but Omar majored in English Lit and Art History, so he open to correction from the peanut gallery.  Obviously asymmetric knowledge changes the actual percentages--Omar just looking at the raw figures.
[/quote]

I did not check the calculation of your numbers, I doubted your base assumption as it did not even take the base town assymetry, knowing their own role, into account. I believe this is telling that you were not looking with town eyes on the probabilities.

Regarding your point 1, sure it is unlikely for Gaspar to change, but I feel you are too certain that there will be no vote movements anymore today when you give Jabbz the "unique chance" to decide this game.

I am definitely willing to change my vote to you by now, let us see if that gets traction.

[Kaiser]

Sorry for messing up the quote, I am on my mobile phone.

[Meiz]

I think I will attempt the shot on GES, because we will need time for Brick to followup on the thread to show some sign if it works or not.

[Meiz]

OBLITERATE: Gold Ergo Sum