Summary :
Assuming we want 6 wizards surviving at the end of the game on average, that would mean a total of 42 surviving wizard in 7 games.
The first column - using both elimination mechanics - is reasonably close - without the low difficulty test run where the AI had no troops to effectively fight, we'd be quite close to it.
The second is somewhat worse, with 10 more surviving wizards, out of which 1 difference came from the low difficulty game.
The third is much worse, having 22 more surviving wizards out of which none come from the low difficulty.
The "weak AI' column difference specifically shows the opposite : removing the combat mechanic resulted in 12 more surviving wizards in this category vs only 18 more if both mechanics were removed. Meanwhile the average wizard column stays nearly unaffected by the removal of the combat mechanic.
What this tells us is, the diplomacy part of the feature is necessary, as it guarantees the wars that result in reducing the number of average AI wizards, while strengthening the top ones.
What this also tells us is, we can remove the combat mechanic entirely, but we do need to have a replacement that specifically triggers on already weakened wizards and makes them somehow disappear.
The possible options we have are :
-Make the wizard turn neutral (retire, die in an accident, get destroyed by a revolt, etc)
-Make the wizard reduce garrisoning requirements - for example 6 in fortress, 5 in other cities, and use the rest of the units to build stacks and try to conquer.
I think we should give up on the other ideas though (random event or monsters killing the wizards, wizard surrendering to other players, wizard failing to pay maintenance).
The second feels less artificial but the risk there is, if they don't have more than one city and their units get killed regularly, then they have no opportunity to actually build a stack so the garrison stays maxed. Maybe I should try running some tests with that next.