I don't think Pro is very good. If your estimate of 3-4 cities is right, it's +3 gold before Currency and Financial would be better. I don't think the City Garrison and Drill promos salvage it.
I think Agg is almost a necessity. If Agg people make a Barracks and shove Shock Axes at us, there's no good way to trade efficiently without Aggressive axes of our own. The one alternative I can think of is Babylon's Bowman, which doesn't beat an Axe one-for-one, but does trade hammer-efficiently. Once we're out of danger from Shock axes, the next danger is Thoth's Praets, who will almost certainly be Agg, too. Without Shock Axes or Bowmen, we can't beat Praets (until we get catapults, but I imagine by then it'll be too late). So, in my opinion, we need to be Agg or have Bowmen.
In the spoiler is a mock-up of the map. I've marked with red dots where people can settle on a luxury first-ring to let their opponents also settle on a luxury first ring. This seems quite peaceful for an AW game, so I've also marked in orange spots that will invalidate any first-ring luxury plants from the neighbor. I've marked with an X those orange dots that probably won't be considered because they don't have first-ring food or can't share with the cap. (One or two orange dots have first ring fish in the inner sea. These probably deserve Xs as well.) Lastly, I've put a box around the orange dots that completely invalidate any city plants between themselves and the neighbor's capital.
Yeah, I might've went overboard. Anyway, here it is:
Some things to point out in no real order:
-Southeast has the only good expansion that also cuts off a neighbor (Southwest) from settling in their direction completely.
-Northwest's neighbors have no good ways of invalidating his luxury plant. I put a box around one of Northeast's options but that would require slow-building a work boat for the ocean fish.
-Following the above, Northeast has no good way of preventing his neighbors from settling min distance.
-Southwest's neighbors both have excellent spots to settle up on him. The other players are usually only especially vulnerable on one side.
-Everybody's horses have some sort of awkwardness to them, often screwing up the dotmap. Luckily, everybody but Northeast gets there's with the capital's third ring on t50.
Ok. Enough map stuff. Back to pick phase. You mentioned wanting something defensive or economy-oriented. Given that we'll only have 4-5 natural cities, Pro isn't going to give much, 4gpt before Currency and 8gpt after? Fin will help, between the gold, coast, and cottages. I haven't done the math, but Phi with an Academy is probably the best or second best.
It's your game, so I'll happily scheme based on whatever you want. My suggestion is picking Agg/Something or Bowmen (Babylon) with first pick. I think any of Sitting Bull, Lincoln, or Pericles will be available after a first round Babylon pick. There's also the possibility of grabbing Agg or Pro + Imp and second picking a map spot that can push a neighbor back by invalidating plants (the two Southern starts). I don't think any unique units are so important as to pick first now that Praets are gone. Edit: There is some weird possibility of using Greece to Great Artist bomb somebody, I guess.
It's now my bedtime too, and my brain is leaking out my ears. Pick something you'll have fun with. I'll have fun with everything.
There is no way to peace. Peace is the way.
