[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: how to finish second

[scooter]

Ok, so I know I eliminated EXP last night in my thought exercise, but picking Carthage means EXP is right back on the table since I would get cheap Cothons. So removing the 0pts and civs, here is my new picking table:

4: FIN
3: ORG, EXP
2: SPI, IND, CRE
1: PHI

Yes I know I could just spend 4 pts and take Fin/IMP or Fin/Chm (restricted leader!), but I think Fin/PHI is easily better than both of those here, so I'm just eliminating that row entirely.

[scooter]

Thinking about this some more. A few comments on some leaders I could take next time around:

-Again, I really like Lizzie here. FIN is just unfair on a water-heavy map. Sure FIN and PHI isn't the most synergistic combo ever created, but I don't think it's a disaster by any stretch. PHI is more about the ability to pop out some quick great people. It doesn't need to be in an SE to succeed. I bet Lizzie gets taken in this game. The question is will it happen before, during, or after I pick.

-It's going to be really, really hard to turn down Sury if he falls to me.

-I'm not really interested in IND. I could come up with strategic reasons I suppose, but the real answer is I just don't want to play with it this time around. Following the Mackoti PBEM29 FDR blueprint would be a solid choice here, but I don't think I'll do it. Plus, I have no idea on the status of marble/stone. If I had some guarantees on those I'd consider IND (or rule it out, depending on what the guarantees are), but it's just a risky choice.

-I'm also not really interested in SPI. I've used it quite a bit lately, and it's weaker on Normal speed than it is on Quick. So I'll scratch that off.

-I really like Zara here. Just a solid all-around choice.

My top 3 is probably Sury, Lizzie, and Zara... Not necessarily in that order though, I haven't nailed it down yet. I'm also going to take into account what other people pick - someone may throw a curveball that causes me to re-evaluate what I choose. I'm not completely opposed to using SPI or IND for instance, I'm just predisposed to ignore them both here. I also think that out of all the 2pt options, CRE is the best raw value. So there's a pretty high chance I walk into this game with either PHI or CRE.

[scooter]

Well that was anti-climactic. I was thinking that in true Ruff fashion we might get a really off-the-wall pick that turns out to have some really cool twist to it. Nope. He took the blindingly obvious choice. Good for him.

[scooter]

I'll be honest, I'm having a really hard time gauging how much I want EXP here. That's my biggest struggle right now. Do I want it enough to entertain Isabella or Bismarck? Those would still be good. Or do I stick to my gut and ditch it for FIN or ORG and live with normal-priced Cothons.

[scooter]

Any other time Regoarrarr couldn't stop posting if you cut his hands off, but the ONE TIME I'm in a leader pick draft with him he inexpicably goes invisible on us.

[scooter]

Huh. Now you see the one drawback of taking civ first - everyone is taking leaders. Though I still suspect Carthage might have fallen if I hadn't taken it first.

Another EXP leader falling suggests to me that I may not be going with EXP Carthage after all. I mean, the only one left that I'm interested in is Bismarck, but if any IND leader falls before then that'll be enough for me to skip that. Which is fine, I'm perfectly happy with Lizzie or Zara.

[scooter]

As far as I can tell, I am literally the only person with zero lurker comments so far. I'm going to assume this is because I'm the only person who hasn't made a factual error yet in one of my posts. Yay!

Any suggestions for player previews? I like to do unusual previews, but I think I've beaten the RB member parody/caricature thing sufficiently to death, so I'm trying to decide how to do this one.

[Commodore]

Put yourself in the shoes of each player, and explain from their perspective/personality their pick.

[scooter]

That's probably the best bet. I can think of how I'd do it for several of them already.

[scooter]

Ichabod takes India! I was wondering if we might see that. OK, let's see if we can't figure out what leader he's angling for. He just spent 3 of his 5 points, so we can eliminate a lot. First, the original system:

2: SPI, IND, CRE
1: PHI
0: IMP, CHA, AGG, PRO

Now, eliminate all civs and all traits > 2 points. And eliminate PRO because as far as I'm concerned, it NEVER HAPPENED just like PB3.

2: SPI, IND, CRE
1: PHI
0: IMP, CHA, AGG

I also would venture to guess he's not taking PHI here because it's still inferior to those 2pt options, and it's not like there's another 1pt trait to pair with it. By the way, I LOVE this picking system. Anyways, so the only question I care about is which of the 2pt traits is he going to aim for? Also, if I were to take Bismarck, would he still go with IND? IND is fun for India. What I don't want is to take Bismarck and then see it devalued by someone else grabbing IND after me. The good news is I doubt that would happen, as people tend to be pretty wary of taking multiple INDs in a small game. Hmm. I really dunno what he's going to take here though. Catherine? I don't think CHA/AGG are really worthwhile at all, but IMP kinda sucks here on Toroidal too. I dunno.

Pindicator is up next, and I'm betting he takes either a leader or Portugal. That's going to leave me with a fun decision if he leaves all 3 of my favorites (Lizzie, Zara, Bismarck). I'm ever so slightly leaning towards Lizzie. The tiebreaker for me is that if I'm going to get a nerf on trade routes, I ought to pursue an economic trait that isn't really affected by trade routes. IND is negatively affected because it hurts the effectiveness of GLH. FIN is not because FIN is cheat mode.