[SPOILERS] Dtay's Albion

[dtay]

Conversation with Russia from yesterday. Honestly I don't understand how TT's mind works at all. Nothing he is saying // his views on what's advantageous to who make any sense to me. Now he could be faking, just trying to get an advantage, that'd make sense. But if this chat reflects his actual beliefs about this diplo-board I'm lost.

Certainly there's no ally hiding here. Glad I didn't really tell him anything about the german-french situation, I have no idea who he'd decide to tell.

Dtay
hey
TT
hey
Dtay
so you're going to be stretched thin with the one build on this next turn (assuming the obvious Austria retreat to gal)
i really have no desire
to aTTack stp
or get into a fight with you over the north
TT
how can I believe that when you've broken your word once?
Dtay
well i did give forewarning of the broken word
nor would a fleet in nwy really change this calculation
TT
doesn't really make much difference as I couldn't do anything to stop it
I would need at least help into Sweden for me to even think of trusting your intentions
Germany is running the table right now
Dtay
frankly, i was coming to offer the opposite, you support me into swe, that both removes the immediate threat from stp
ensures germany doesn't get it
TT
with your odd dance with France & MJW's irrationality down south he's in such a strong position
Dtay
and lets you build in war
for dealing with the south
TT
I need to get build though
Dtay
the western triangle is a clusterfuck atm
TT
builds
Dtay
that is a mutual problem
me supporting you into swe
resolves none of the tensions
since i'll still be bordering stp
TT
yes, but I would know you are worth trusting
leTTing you int Sweden could well just be you taking advantage of me again
Dtay
i don't think i'm really in a position where i actively need your trust for something. You want to be able to trust me so you can demilitarize stp
in both of these cases you have to trust me initially
sicne i could renegade and just move to stp (unless you build there in any case)
TT
*renege
Dtay
^ya that
TT
I see your point, but right now I am preTTy well burned from giving people unearned trust
Dtay
was mjw
supposed to stab austria?
TT
yup
Dtay
he shouldhave
TT
but he fed me bull about forgeTTing the deadline
Dtay
austria would be a dead man walking
TT
I know
Dtay
italy would get most of teh spoils
TT
he won't get TRI back so easily
now its a total mess
Dtay
the west and east both
france/I's moves were lol worthy
france called me quite well
TT
west is much simpler
Germany is super strong
Dtay
then making my army border germany makes even more sense
TT
not really as it will be preTTy cut off
Dtay
perhaps
look, boTTom line, i'm not supporting you into swe, it makes no sense, I don't need anything from you in the north, i'm trying to give you a way out of having to guard it this next turn
which lets you prosecute the war against austria beTTer
i don't want stp, i wouldn't be able to hold it
if you think swe is disconnected
then stp is in orbit or something
i could do it jsut to unilaterally fuck with you, but you're hardly a runaway
TT
look, I need to secure another build next turn just to be sure the south doesn't get stuck in a quagmire forever
your position is much more defenisble than mine
even if it is just for this year, I need Sweden
Dtay
i realize why you want to not be in a quagmire in the south, but i'm not sure
why i would care about that
if anything a giant southern quagmire would be kind of nice
not that i'm actively working for it
but that isn't something i'm looking to fix at the very least
TT
Germany is in a much beTTer position to take advantage of it than you are
Dtay
turning the "germany dominanted world" into the "juggernaut v germany" world
TT
you need a strong bulwark there and at some point, someone you can trust over there
Dtay
isn't an improvement from my perspective
probably ends in me stabbing germany in theback, then you/turkey either winning in a tie or you stabbing turkey for the win
TT
firstly, lets not kid ourselves, the East will take at least a couple of years to sort itself out to anything even resembling a juggernaut
secondly, you need Germany blocked out from the East and West if you have any hope of winning
so a 3/4 way clusterfuck will not exactly be able to resist Germany that much
Dtay
if we're collectively optimizing to limiting germany the extra unit to england makes much more sense
but i'm not even trying to sell you on that
TT
How?
Dtay
because i'm dealing with germany now as opposed to "once austria and italy are dead"
TT
he can send many more units safely against the East than you can
If effectively allowing him to get 3 centres is dealing with germany then you need help
Dtay
which will not be coming from russia for years
TT
may well be coming East soon though
Dtay
i'm entirely unpersuaded by "this counters germany beTTer", and the whole line of argument poses a collective action problem
you benefit from my version (build in south), I benefit (swe SC), and collective benefit (its not given to germany), under the alternative, I just sit in nwy, you have to build in stp or move your fleet back, and no one gets swe
under yours, you benefit sure
i get the nebolous (well maybe in a few years you can fight germanybeTTer?)
TT
I honestly see no way at all that you even scratch Germany right now
Dtay
notice my deal doesn't list "help me beat germany" as a benefit to you
because as i said in the reverse situation
that's super nebelous from whoever the non-receiving part is
*party
TT
you already screwed France last spring and whatever dance you did in the fall doesn't exactly scream alliance
Dtay
that was before i called france wrong and germany got 3 sc, but yes, true
TT
So Germany is preTTy solid in the W and has 3 more builds, or which 2 are going to head East
if its 2 fleets, then he could control the Baltic region preTTy easily and then I'm in deep trouble
Dtay
it won't be 2 fleets
TT
why not?
he needs fleets to beat you and knows I won't be building a fleet in the Baltic
Dtay
deals. which it'd make no sense for him to offer since he has to break them before i make any moves or commitments whatsoever
so sure, he could break the deal, but if he were going to do that it'd make no sense to offer in the first place
b/c he has to break it before anything else happens
TT
even if it isn't 2 fleets, at least one army heads towards the Eastern battlefield I reckon
in a 2v2, he gets a chance to be kingmaker
Dtay
yeah, kingmaker, not gain anything
1 army lets him swing a battle
not gain a sc
i don't care if he swings a battle
TT
then you are only looking at the short term
he only needs one decent ally
and a battle swung here in a quagmire where noone trusts each other is how you get one
Dtay
and giving you swe cannot/willnot
alter his ability
to do any of that
which is why this benefit isusper nebelous
its more than long term
moreover, he may well swing it FOR you
which obviously your army won't stop
TT
highly unlikely
he has been more than belligerent to me so far and me and Matt do not have a good history
Dtay
though honestly i think him playing kingmaker is unlikely from my personality read of him
he's so far very much avoided making a move that pisses anyone off
obviously that stops sometime
TT
its the smart move
Dtay
but, he seems to enjoy his universal benevolence at the moment
TT
he gets more builds next turn and he puts a huge target on his back
I will consider all that you have said, but right now I see things like this.

I have no reason to trust you as you broke an agreement already.

I need centres. If you won't give Sweden to me, then I may well consider giving it to Germany instead as I'm sure he'll offer me more than nothing and he hasn't broken his word yet
I'll let you know once I've slept on it
Dtay
well we're at an impasse. I'm not sure particularly what i've done to break trust besides altering my unilateral disclosure of what i was doing in the north
its not like i received a concession for that
TT
you said the terms were acceptable to take it with a fleet
and you didn't
that's breaking your word however you spin it
Dtay
on the diplomacy scale of trust breaking
its pretty dang low
TT
yeah but all you've done is demand stuff from me
and then when we made the only deal we agreed, you broke it
so where exactly in all that you think that you simply deserve my trust, I don't know
I don't even have game history to go off with you
so every bit of evidence so far is not favourable to you
Dtay
you're somewhat forced into trusting me either way, no matter who we allocate sweden to
nor is diplo a game of building trust over multiple games in any case
not sure how one would win under those conditions
TT
I didn't say it is
but at least I can have an insight into how you've played previous games to see if you actually stick to any deals
Dtay
you could obviously look to previous games to see like if i'm an mjw or not, but you'd see any player braeking deals
TT
yes
but most also honouring some
but you've just demanded stuff
Dtay
well anyway, i think we've reached a not (at this moment) bridgeable divide, i think you supporting me to sweden materially benefits you (and obviously me), and me supporting you doesn't help me at all
if you disagree you disagree, but that's my current stance
we can come back tot his later i guess, there's a lot of time
cause of the retreat phase
TT
we'll see

[dtay]

I've not really been reporting this game (obviously) but feel the need to put this out there for my own self satisfaction.

Russia/France are totally about to stab me. Germany is being oddly cooperative in falling on his sword int he right way, but obviously isn't a real ally if he sees something productive for himself to do. Russia/France have every incentive to screw me here.

I'm not going to counter it, because the best counter is only partly successful and if France/Russia team up on me (with Germany helping kind of) I think I'm kind of doomed anyway. So I'm going to send in cooperative orders on the slim chance (~30%?) that I'm misreading everyone. This notably involves ceding lots of supply centers this turn, since I've done all the capturing from Germany up until now.

Just wanted a record I'm not quite as naive as I think I'll look in 3 hours.

[dtay]

Estimation of current probabilities of victory

France solo - 50%
England-France win - 25%
Russia-France win - 15%
English win - 7.5%
Russia win - 2.5%

There is probably no defensible methodology for those percentages given they rely on my own actions, but anyway.

The fact that Italy is purposefully imploding is heavily weighting everything towards the top two possibilities. Other ones can basically only occur if I stab france. So now I'm trying to slant things towards option 2 as best i can. Might post thoughts on how sometime later this weekend. (Which will be as much reporting as I've done all game...)

[dtay]

Retrospectives after reading the other player's threads // comments to other players (by nation)

France
Definitely would have preferred in the abstract to be in a EG alliance against France, hence the move into Eng right off thebat. Now of course things didn't turn out like that at all, and we flipped the script on Germany together. Twas fun. You were certainly in the front running for the win, though I think the players who said "only France can win" in their threads are were somewhat exaggerating. Anyway, well played, nice working with you. My thoughts on moves into the future was I was probably going to only stab you if it looked like you were going to get to 18 SC without interference (hopefully said insight would come with enough lead time to do something). Before then I would probably just try and diplo-annex SC back from you like Hol or Bel (though as you said postgame, looks like I couldn't have convinced you on Bel apparently?) in the name of equality if you started running away, hoping you would prefer to cede them than start a war in the north.

Germany
Got along well for being one of the primary architects (and THE primary implementer) of your demise. You noted you found the nice/casual strat talk int he run up to our mutual attack on each other amusing, I felt much the same. Funny we both had the same mentality, just glad I got France on my side and not yours.

MJW
You come off as... erratic. Like really erratic. It feels like every plan you came up with (got this somewhat from emails and A LOT from the thread) was 5 times too complicated. Just noting also your read on me (from the thread) was wrong basically every time. I was never seriously considering stabbing France at that moment in time. I think the analysis you had of that situation is similar to how you analyzed all the others, it was extremely short term. Yes Por would be a free SC, but at that point in time Russia was still a real threat, and avoiding the FR alliance against me was my primary worry, and not something outweighed by a single SC. The erratic-ness you gave off also made me extremely reluctant to throw out the one ally that'd be working out for a teamup with Italy, since I would bet you'd then throw that out for something marginally better in the short term for an unpredictable (from my perspective) reason.

The go-nuclear plan also seems really hairbrained. Maybe that draws me into fighting France, but do you really think it would draw me into fighting France that it would net-gain you centers as opposed to actually defending? I feel like you should have just taken the TT alliance offer and stuck with that, IR is a very very workable alliance (much moreso than EF). That you communicated that whole thing via a needlessly roundabout way through Austria is a perfect example of being way too complicated and making me not want to work with you.

Russia
Not going to say a lot, found you weirdly prone to being offended at times for me not just helping you out for the sake of it. Perfectly fine diplo tactic though given it can slant conversations in one's favor, and didn't really affect my propensity to work for you, that's just my read. Didn't support you into Germany because I saw you as my longer term foe so didn't want you to have any SC, saw Germany as dying and wanted Germany to die in a way that inconvenienced you not me, so I cut that deal for Germany moving on StP, which I think net worked out substantially in my favor.

Italy exploding basically screwed you over as you pointed out. GG though.

Austria
Nothing much to say. Never really interacted with you. Got caught in the classic Austria trap and devoured by neighbors.

Turkey
Similar to Austria in terms of lack of interaction. MJW's vendetta put you in a rough spot ally-wise.

[Cyneheard]

Re: Bel:

Once I lose Bel, I can't defend my lands at all. You would have had to take Ruh, then pop Bel, and only then be able to start moving in on Par/Bre/etc. Handing over Bel was a giant "stab me" sign, whereas Hol didn't really give me any more strategic depth, and would've guaranteed you stab me to keep me from getting to 18 too quickly.

[Cyneheard]

Also, before MJW's suicide play, I did think an FR game plan was possible; I never understood why you and TT found it so hard to work together.

Of course, England is nearly impossible to kill, and getting Mattimeo to go east meant that TT was ever going to be King in the North, so that wasn't likely to work. I didn't think you were
going to leave yourself open to a catastrophic stab.

[dtay]

Also, before MJW's suicide play, I did think an FR game plan was possible; I never understood why you and TT found it so hard to work together.

Of course, England is nearly impossible to kill, and getting Mattimeo to go east meant that TT was ever going to be King in the North, so that wasn't likely to work. I didn't think you were
going to leave yourself open to a catastrophic stab.

I think the lack of a reasonable common enemy was a lot of it re: lack of cooperation with TT. Once Germany precipitously collapsed after 1 year of us fighting him, and then Germany basically agreed to vaguely die in "Russia's direction" there just wasn't much Russia could give me or I him besides just ceding parts of Scandinavia. Long term planning would obviously be possible, but that's a lot harder to do when you already have had minor conflicts and have little to cooperate over in the short term.

That's just my take on it though. Certainly there was also an 'irrational' personality clash to go along with all that, but I think the fundamentals weren't conducive to cooperation in the first place.

[Rowain]

Reading your thread make me sorry that we didn't have any chance to work together. By the sound of it I would like to play with you again.

But that Russia knew in advance that you were putting an Army into Norway and still decided to side with turkey instead of killing it is baffling.

[Twinkletoes89]

Tbh I think our struggles to really work together was down to a play style/personality clash as much as anything.

I think that the Norway Army & unsupported fleet into Kie deal breaks were seen in completely different terms by us both. You prob thought that it was just the way it goes and nothing more, when I found them to be pretty black marks on dealing with you. We could only cooperate so much, yet twice you broke agreements on that and so it was really hard for me to trust you. I was honest when we were arguing after the Norway thing that I struggled to see why I should trust you again, and then I decided to work with you and give you another chance and it worked to begin with and then you didn't support me into Kie.

I operate very much on a fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me idea so that's why things fell apart.

To be honest with you, I could see and understand why you did what you did (you had a much stronger ally you could trust than I did), but within the game I couldn't reconcile that with really being able to trust you. That said, I'd happily play another game with you sometime as in a different situation we could probably manage our differences better

[Twinkletoes89]

But that Russia knew in advance that you were putting an Army into Norway and still decided to side with turkey instead of killing it is baffling.

Basically, I felt that me & scooter had a major rapport and could possibly juggernaut. The 'stab' was pretty much planned with scooter, though I was considering going through with it rather than not stabbing, but I was pretty sure that an alliance with MJW & You would not work for me as you would prob stab me afterwards as you would have the Key Lepanto trust binding you together.

Also, seeing MJW let in to Tri for free was so much of a potential bounty if we could get him to turn on you that I zeroed in on trying to make him do that, thinking he would be rational enough to take it on. Then me and scooter would be the closer two of the triumvirate and I stand more to benefit from it. I very much wanted to avoid being a Crassus.

On the Norway army - I would have loved to counter it, but the logic was that I was directing all my focus south rather than try to divide & survive that I decided I just had to live with it and hope it wouldn't come at me early on, which it thankfully didn't