[SPOILER] - Suboptimal finds trees, still seeks forest

[suboptimal]

Banzai: good points about turtling. I think that the window for any naval buildout is between Shipbuilding and Square Rigging -- get out the galleys and quads before Cartography and Square Rigging are done. I'll have to go through PBEMs 11 and 13 to see remind myself how things developed. IIRC it was land-focused with navy coming to the fore after around Turn 100. As for expansion, well, I do not intend on repeating that mistake.

CMF, thanks for generating that list. I don't see any civ on that list that is more appealing (or stronger) than Nubia. As with the startup for PBEM 10 I'm kind of feeling in the mood for a bit of...enforced violence. Besides, back in the day I was the guy that would have the worst possible dice rolls at the worst possible times at the gaming table and a re-draft would likely see Arabia, America Canada and Egypt as the picks.

In my test games I've continued opening slinger x 2 -> settler. That covers plenty of ground for scouting and provides cover for the settler. From there I've let the map, resources and city-states dictate things. In a low-gold situation I've tended towards warrior -> builder -> warrior at the capital. For a high-gold situation things are a bit more flexible. Building two more slingers and upgrading all four gets a force put together a few turns faster than building two archers and buying a builder.

City-state AI is inept enough where three archers and a warrior is sufficient to take a city-state before Turn 50, though only if no one else is around to snipe it. Four archers and 2-3 warriors is a better bet.

Woden: Pick is Nubia

[suboptimal]

Two things to note for future reference:

Game Scoring

I was a bit confused in tracking scores during PBEMs 14 & 15. Turns out that GS changed the scoring a little bit:

City: 5 points
District: 2 points
Specialty District: 4 points
Population: 1 point
Building: 1 point (applies to city center buildings, district buildings and wonders)

Founding the capital is 6 points (5 for the city, one for the palace since it's a building).

Disaster Locations

I've noticed that disasters tend to recur in specific locations instead of scattering around the map. Rivers that flood are likely to flood again, source tiles of desert storms or blizzards are likely to be sources again, etc. Tornadoes and volcanoes seem to be a little more sporadic and less specific, though Pindicator had the same volcano blow up 2-3 times in PBEM 15. Tracking where known disasters occur may be useful as it relates to city planning.

PBEM 16 spoiler

Another example is the river flooding in Longxi in PBEM 16. It flooded once near the start of the game and again, along the same tiles, some 50 turns or so later.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Alhambram: Inca, Persia, Korea, Australia

Cornflakes: France, Macedon, Rome, Japan
Kaiser: Mali, Greece, Mapuche, Indonesia
Pindicator: Sweden, Georgia, Kongo, Mongolia
Suboptimal: England, Poland, Spain, Nubia
TheArchduke: Phoenicia, Scotland, Russia, Germany
TheBlackSword: Ottoman, Cree, Dutch, India

Both Civ VI PBEMs are updating slowly atm, and I'm bored (and starting to put my brain back together; still, this will be rambly) so let's look at our opponents and their choices.

Alhambram: No need to spoil anything about PBEM16 here, Cornflakes and Archduke are both in this game and scooter is soon out of PBEM16. Alhambram I think is inclining more and more towards a quick-rush style of player. He started slow as Russia in PBEM2, but famously recovered, obliterated Woden with Cossacks, and won a religious victory. He didn't achieve much as Arabia in PBEM5, but was able to invade Japper with Mamluks. I wonder whatever happened to Japper? Haven't seen him around in like to a year. Anyway, PBEM6, he rushed Emperor with Immortals, PBEM8, he got off to a quick start with the Netherlands, and PBEM16 - well, you know. 

It seems a commonality with Alhambram's games is that he's really quick to sniff out a weakness in his opponent, coupled with a strong instinct for his own civ's strengths - he exploited Russia, Persia, and Hungary all to the hilt. If there's a UU, he'll for sure be planning to do something during the power spike.

His civ choices are all tasty. Inca are good on randomly generated maps, and with ideal terrain can be really frightening (had not Woden conquered Jester, I think pin's Inca would have been the favorites in PBEM15). Alhambram has been Persia before, so I doubt we'll see them, but Woden showed off the Immortal/Surprise War combo in early PBEM15 and showed off Paradeizas throughout. I think Alhambram's most likely choices, though, are either Korea or Japan. 

Korea I really like (and I'm not just saying that since I'm typing this on a Korean PC). The seowon (서원) is a really powerful district. 4 science adjacency is stronger than most campuses, and it's 50% off. You give up a hill, BUT it boosts adjacent mines, so you can make back some of the lost production with sufficient adjacent hills. Throw in the farm boost and Korea can really get some strong science cities going. The governors were slightly nerfed, but with the current practice of promoting Pingala as tall as possible, Korea looks strong again - they benefit from lots of governor promotions more than most civs. The hwacha is mainly defensive and I'm not sure how useful it would be. Still, since Korea is so straightforward to play, and it's only been featured in PBEM8 so far, I think it's Alhambram's best choice. If he takes Korea, expect him to quickly race to place 서원, race out to a science lead, and then crush his least-wary neighbor with a timing attack, probably knights backed by hwacha. 

His other option is Australia. Australia can flexibly settle anywhere so long as it's near the coast. Fresh water isn't really a concern. The district adjacencies aren't quite as strong as the 서원 but are more flexible, applying to more than just science. Most of Australia's power kicks in in the late game, but the penalties for declaring war on Oz should help him get there. I think Australia is a really powerful choice, too, if a bit more complicated to play than Korea. If Alhambram goes with this, expect him to patiently turtle and dare people to attack him until he can reach Diggers in the late game, at which point he will destroy someone. 

I wrote more than I intended. I'll do someone else later.

EDIT: Cornflakes next.

Cornflakes is really good at microing his civ and setting himself up for success. He is less successful when it comes to war, so far. I've only seen 3 games of his - 2 Civ VI PBEMs and 1 Civ IV. In all of those, he used quite good dotmaps and canny play to quickly gain the upper hand over his opponents. Then, war broke out and he kind of collapses like a house of cards. I expect him to focus on improving that aspect of his game, so he's not at all to be underestimated. Just know that he'll probably outpace us in development, but there may be an opening to gain that back militarily. PBEM, uh, 14? 11? One of those, he did well as Brazil. But he let Archduke run roughshod over Banzailizard, then collapsed when Archduke moved on him next. PBEM16, he built India quite well it looks like, but his own attack on Archduke ran straight into a brick wall (which goes to show what happens to a rush against a dug-in and waiting opponent with tech parity). In Pitboss 43

He successfully overran Elkad after a really impressive opening game. But his attack on wetbandit failed miserably, mostly because the dogpile he was counting on totally failed to materialize, and he left himself very open to superdeath, which even I could tell you was a mistake and I've never played a single game with superdeath.

France I think he'll ignore. He should, anyway. If he doesn't, maybe he's being tricksy somehow and I'll look into it. Japan is a strong choice - half-cost districts are great, as is the bonus adjacencies. Macedon is pretty good as well, but it's entirely committed to the rush. Rome is his strongest overall choice. Rome has probably been featured in more PBEMs than any other Civ VI civ, because free monuments + Legions are so freaking good.

If Cornflakes picks Rome, he wants a straightforward strong game. Look to him to dominate culture and probably hazard a Legion timing attack. If he picks Macedon, he's all-in on rushing someone, and Alexander's UUs are strong enough that I think it's worth worrying about. Definitely want to scout heavily and make sure he's not our neighbor if he takes Alexander, avoid scooter's fate in PBEM16. If he takes Japan, I think that plays to his strengths the most and he'll be able to city-plan an excellent, compact empire. On the whole, despite Cornflakes' military weakness, I think his strong economic skills married to a very strong draw make him a serious contender. I'd be worried about any of the three civs above. Probably Macedon -> Rome -> Japan in order from least worried to most worried.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Double posting. Sorry not sorry

Kaiser: Mali, Greece, Mapuche, Indonesia
Pindicator: Sweden, Georgia, Kongo, Mongolia
Suboptimal: England, Poland, Spain, Nubia
TheArchduke: Phoenicia, Scotland, Russia, Germany
TheBlackSword: Ottoman, Cree, Dutch, India

Kaiser: Don't know too much about Kaiser as a player. His one appearance in a PBEM up to now was PBEM3, when everyone was still figuring out how the hell to play. He planted a city as Japan much too far forward, and was subsequently crushed between Ichabod (the Civ King, yes, yes) and our own suboptimal. He's probably learned a lot from the experience and the intervening 2 years lurking, so no real conclusions to be drawn.

His draw is okay. Indonesia is great on a water map, of course (if you actually use their strengths), but less good on Pangaea or Continents or whatever. Mapuche I'm actually a big fan of - they're mostly a vanilla civ, sure, but the Malon Raider + the Golden Age combat thing means that Mapuche can launch a VERY powerful attack on its neighbors in a Golden Age. You'd need to kill 5 units in a short time to tank the loyalty, which probably won't happen, but +10 combat strength is insane, especially if Pindicator takes Georgia or something. I also like the culture-generating improvement, since culture is a great currency, especially early in the game. I feel like Mapuche has been underrated. Greece is an old standbye - Gorgo, obviously, not Pericles. Neither the Acropolis nor the hoplite is overwhelming, but the bonus envoys are quite nice. Especially with how sub used them to totally dominate the city-state game in PBEM15 (I'm surprised it took Woden so long to finally say "screw it" and start murdering nearby citystates). Mali is fun for a singleplayer variant, but I think they start too slow to really be viable in multiplayer. Whoever is an early neighbor of Mali will want to murder them. 

I have no idea what Kaiser will take. Given how he got burned in PBEM3, I'd predict a cautiously strong pick, with nothing too extreme for a variant. Call it Greece as the favorite, followed closely by Mapuche, then Mali and Indonesia. No idea what kind of game to expect.

pindicator has a mostly weak draw. Mongolia is a very strong civ, but the rest are lacklustre. Georgia and Mongolia both featured in PBEM8. Georgia seemed an odd choice even then, but we never got to see them played since Genghis Khan murdered them with heavy chariots (????) of all things before they got off the ground. Given the strength of monumentality, though, maybe Georgia is worth a look. Kongo seems more suited for SP - the religious benefits matter not a whit, and while I know Japper swore by the Mbanza and the Ngao, I, uh, don't trust his opinion (sorry Japper). After pin's experience in PBEM11? 14? One of those, I expect him to be more conservative in his pick. 

Sweden, ugh. Museum theming bonuses? Extra GPP from Factories and Museums? This seems like a bunch of lategame SP stuff. Maybe I'm not properly considering the possibilities, but I don't see a lot here. Building museums and theater squares seems like a sucker's bet. 

Mongolia is very strong, but entirely built on the classical-medieval cavalry rush. Most people are smart enough not to give Genghis the extra visibility, but even so, you can still stack tons of combat bonuses and make the horde something to be feared. Let me go quote myself from PBEM8...

Mongolia
Mongolia is my biggest temptation to take Scythia in this game. Who wants to see if Genghis can capture cavalry units faster than I can make them? Well...probably he can. But it'd be a damn good sight to see! Battle of the horse lords! 

So, the Mongols get buffed cavalry, AND they get the Sea Dog's ability to capture enemy units, only it's horses, 'stead of ships. They get free trade posts, and get +3 combat strength per level of diplomatic visibility - which, if that stacks with the general boost to combat units, is a startling +9 for cavalry! Do not go toe to toe with a Mongol horde on an open plain! The Mongols have the Keshig, which can escort units at their speed. Now, there's a trick involving the Jong that lets you teleport units across the map in a single turn (the escorted unit gets the movement of the Jong - including a new Jong replacing the escort!) - I wonder if the same could be achieved with a Keshig chain, only on land? That'd be funny. The Ordu unique building replaces the stable and gives even MORE movement to the Mongols. 

So basically, these guys will move at +2 or +3 tiles per turn, with a GG, will hit at +14 strength (with a GG), and can capture any cavalry you field against them. That's, uh, quite intimidating. Maybe even more impressive than the Zulu horde of corps. And yes, they could probably beat Scythia in a head to head matchup. 

I think Archduke will indulge his baser instincts and take these guys, and I need to think of a way to defend against 'em. The Archduke will be terrifying with these - look at how he maneuvered Alexander's hetairoi against suboptimal, and now he's got an entire cavalry army to work with. Hell, even if he starts on the other side of the map as me, he could overrun a neighbor and win the game with not a damned thing I could do about it. My hwachas would be useless against him, as he'd just run rings around them and get the first strike. The only way I can think of to defend right now is with lots and lots of fixed fortifications - river lines, city walls, and encampments (but with the Keshig, battering rams will surge out of nowhere and hit your walls before you can defend...)

Does pin feel like rushing? He'll be commited with Mongolia. 

He's a strong player - his PBEM5 is basically a how-to of how to use religion to boost your civ, and his war against Japper was really well-timed. The only other games I've seen him in, though, he seems like he can get tilted or lose interest in the game if he suffers setbacks. A strong check delivered to him at some point will cause him to go into autopilot and basically abandon winning chances. As the Aztecs in PBEM11, rho's attack in his flank while he was busy with Rowain caused him to collapse. As the Inca in PBEM15, he had a strong start but slowed down and ultimately stalled out after the lengthy pause, with a war against suboptimal that had ill-defined strategic objectives and kind of aimlessly shifted around without achieving much. If he can overcome his weaknesses and maintain momentum, I think he'll be a player in the game. If he falters, though, then I don't expect him to recover. So, call Mongolia his most dangerous choice, with Georgia as slightly less likely.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Mas:

Suboptimal: England, Poland, Spain, Nubia
TheArchduke: Phoenicia, Scotland, Russia, Germany
TheBlackSword: Ottoman, Cree, Dutch, India

Suboptimal: We've talked about your civ choice and I agree, Nubia is the strongest option. 

suboptimal's play is characterized by great attention to detail but a tendency to lack an overarching strategic vision. Look back through his reports for PBEM10 and 15 and you can see this pattern. Each city, each front, is treated as a little mini-puzzle to best optimize that particular area. However, how each puzzle ties in with the grander whole is often left out a bit. Thus, you get things like conquering half a continent in PBEM10, followed by 100 turns of tentative probes while kind of puttering in circles before winning the game, while in PBEM15 he totally dominated the Great Person game but didn't really seem to know what to do with them, or how to leverage them for advantage beyond a vague "maybe Space victory?" The result is that while sub is great at the micromanagement aspect of his civ, everything seems to add up to less than the sum of its parts. 

Tactically, though, he's improved since the disastrous PBEMs 3 and 6. I DO think there's still too much of a tendency to scatter your troops into dispersed task forces around the world, while I'd prefer to keep as much military might concentrated in one place as possible. However, the wars in PBEM10 and PBEM15 were both competently fought - a very good Aztec rush and solid defense afterwards, and a pretty strong defense against pin in PBEM15. 

The main thing, then, in my opinion, to master is keeping your eyes on the prize. As Nubia, your strengths are easy production of ranged units and strong early archers. The window to use archers is small, since swords can appear ~50 turns in and they resist archers pretty well (to say nothing of horsemen), so the key I think is to find and murder as many nearby citystates as you can as quickly as you can. Use those to build an early lead and keep riding that snowball into gobbling up neighbors. Early game scouting should find as many city-states as possible, then kick out your archer task force and eat them ASAP. If all goes well, that should get you an early city lead - you then ride the production/science advantage into the weakest neighbor, etc. One thing NOT to do is get an early lead and then turtle up and develop, like happened, well, a lot. Always have a long-term goal for victory, supported by intermediate goals to help you there, finally followed by short-term goals. If you can do that, you'll be a strong contender for the win.

The Archduke:

As a player, not a lot more to say. Everyone reading has read about a dozen of my profiles of the Archduke, the dude has never met a PBEM he didn't like, and since about PBEM4 he's been in contention in all of them. He's shown that he can't really be rushed (PBEM16), that he's more than willing to rush himself, even launching daring attacks against fortified positions (PBEM6, 8, 11, etc.). As always, his biggest weakness is his own internal development - most of his games are decided before anyone can outbuild him, but if he's unable to achieve a quick conquest in the classical era he can slow down and stall out (PBEM 2, 4, 11, 12). Best way to beat him is to have a strong defense (Nubia!), hope his other neighbors do, too, and then deal with him later. 

Civ picks: Phoenicia, Scotland, Russia, Germany. 

This is a hard one. Phoenicia is probably his weakest pick, BUT it's also the only one he's never played before, and he shows a marked tendency to avoid repeat civs whenever possible. He played Germany in PBEM7, Russia in PBEM11, and Scotland in PBEM14. 

Phoenicia looks strong on an island map (maybe PBEM18 can be islands again), but not a lot to offer a single continent. 
Germany is a strong civ overall, especially if you last until lategame, which has happened exactly once ever. Archduke hates late-developing civs, so next. 

Russia is top tier. Strong performer in every game yet. All of their bonuses come online early, and they have a lock on first religion if they want it. Archduke mentioned in PBEM16 that he wants a religious game, so maybe? The only knock on Russia is that he's played them before, otherwise I think he'd certainly go with this. 
Scotland has strong science and production, but its UU and UI are both kind of meh (the Golf Course comes so late in the game). They're also more turtle-y. That would force Archduke to rely on his building skills to have a good game with them, so good news for us if he does. 

I'm not sure here, other than "not Germany." I think he'll shy away from the weak-ish Phoenicia after his frustration with PBEM16, so it's a choice between Russia and Scotland. Russia is more suited to his style and his tastes (strong, early-developing civs), so I predict that. 

Either way, he'll start of relatively quickly, plot the death of nearby city-states (and possibly a player), and then gear up for a decisive invasion sometime in the late classical-early medieval era and try to snowball from there to victory. If he's Russia, Cossacks will be his ace-in-the-hole to end the game. 

The Black Sword:
As a player, immense respect for PBEM13. I had the one goal of fortifying my chokepoint with him, then winning by sea. He completely kicked my ASS in the development department, racing ahead in science, culture, number of cities, everything. Then he got to Frigates one turn - literally one turn! - before I attacked and demolished my navy and, subsequently, my empire. Great game sense and good game skills. Definite threat. 

None of his civs stand out. I don't really care for India - the Varu and Stepwell are nice, but Gandhi and Chandragupta's abilities are both underwhelming. If he takes them, I'd expect him to leverage their strengths for an early Varu attack, and he'll exploit the large Indian cities to the fullest.

The Ottomans I have no idea how they play. Bonuses to siege and conquest seem odd. We didn't get to see them in action in PBEM15 thanks to SOME jerk, and I haven't had the chance to try them in SP. Can't really comment. 

The Dutch are really good. Alhambram and Archduke both did well - easy adjacencies, the 7 Province is a really great UU, the polder is fun. The key is that naval dominance might not matter so much on this map. 

The Cree I'm not really sure about - extra trade routes are good, and the mekwekap is a good improvement, especially since chopping has been nerfed so you don't have to strip the earth of everything valuable as quickly anymore. Their UU is terrible (a more expensive scout that's better at combat? You don't build scouts to fight things!), and the tile pick up is gimmicky and situational. Still, the strong early-game production bonuses are quite strong, as are the early trade routes. This is probably about on par with the Dutch, and maybe a tad stronger on a land-based map, so give the edge to the Cree. 

I predict Cree - Dutch - India - Ottos in descending order of likelihood. Expect him to get out to a fast start either way.

[suboptimal]

CMF, thank you for your analysis on the opposition and on myself. Hopefully I'll be able to use that as the springboard to see the forest for the trees in this PBEM.

There's been one overlooked factor in the Nubia discussion to date -- ranged units also get a +50% XP boost from combats. I've found that if I take two city-states with the same 3-4 archers they will all typically be Lvl 2 when I'm done. The initially built slingers are sometimes even be Lvl 3 if barbarian hunting has been good. While the archers will run into difficulty defending themselves from swordsmen they should not have much difficulty attacking (and killing) swordsmen, even if it's just the Volley promotion. Add in the fact that they can move into a forest or onto a hill and shoot in the same turn it becomes an advantage that we should be able to leverage as long as no Great Generals are around. Cranking out an entire swarm of archers is not out of the question (by T50 the capital can get one out every three turns) and with Conscription running they're maintenance-free and a couple of swordsmen would (should) have trouble against a large assembly of them. I don't know that swords will be that much of a problem unless there's a Great General around. Of course, by that time I should be close to Machinery and having crossbows if all goes well.

[suboptimal]

First Draft

Alhambram: Inca, Persia, Korea, Australia
Cornflakes: France, Macedon, Rome, Japan
Kaiser: Mali, Greece, Mapuche, Indonesia
Pindicator: Sweden, Georgia, Kongo, Mongolia
Suboptimal: England, Poland, Spain, Nubia
TheArchduke: Phoenicia, Scotland, Russia, Germany
TheBlackSword: Ottoman, Cree, Dutch, India
Missing: America, Arabia, Aztecs, Brazil, China, Egypt, Norway, Zulu, Canada, Sumeria, Khmer
Banned: Scythia, Hungary

Second Draft

Alhambram: China, Egypt, Mali, Poland
Cornflakes: Kongo, Germany, America, Dutch
Kaiser: Canada, Macedon, Sumeria, Arabia
Pindicator: Zulu, Korea, Khmer, Scotland
Suboptimal: Georgia, Inca, Persia, Aztec
TheArchduke: Brazil, Ottomans, Mongolia, Spain
TheBlackSword: France, Norway, Sweden, Japan

Missing: Australia, Rome, Greece, Mapuche, Indonesia, England, Nubia, Phoenicia, Russia, India, Cree

So, who's who, or rather, who may be who?

Alhambram: Australia
Cornflakes: Rome
Kaiser: Greece, Mapuche, Indonesia
Pindicator: He's rerolled - all four of his initial draftees are listed elsewhere
Suboptimal: Nubia (or England)
Archduke: Phoenicia, Russia
The Black Sword: Cree, India

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oooh, good catch on pindicator.

If he's rerolled, that means he wasn't feeling frisky with the Mongols. So the Zulu also are probably out. He'll want a peaceful civ, so I think that gives the edge to Korea over Scotland. Look for him to turtle and try to tech into the stratosphere, like his Inca game.

[Woden]

Confirm: Nubia

[suboptimal]

Confirm: Nubia

Confirming Nubia.