Community predictions added to the Championship Game preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6...eview.html
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The mirrored map setup for the championship makes it difficult to predict what will happen; aside from which leaders happen to border one another, the victory pick largely comes down to whomever the community thinks is the strongest. For Season Six that was Huayna Capac after watching him put on impressive performances in the Wildcard game and Playoff Game Three. Catherine and Pacal also drew their share of support and everyone picked up at least a few votes, even Churchill although that may have been people trolling the contest. The Runner Up category was more divided, as usual, with Pacal taking the most votes narrowly ahead of Cyrus, Catherine, and Huayna Capac. Mansa Musa and Churchill were both popular choices for First to Die and there was near-universal agreement that one of these two high peace weight leaders would bow out first. For the victory type, Spaceship was the most popular choice and the recent run of Cultural victory had it sitting in second place well ahead of Domination. This season had seen the fewest Domination victories of any AI Survivor competition with only two thus far (and none since Game Five!)
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Eauxps I. Fourgott: Sorry, Mansa. Even with Churchill on the board, you're still a marked man and you'll need some pretty insane breaks to not get knocked out here. In his wake, Huayna and Pacal will be the big Financial dogs going at it. Huayna will go for culture again, and thus open up the opportunity for Pacal to strike, knock him out, and go to space for his first championship. Cathy is situated to take gains from both Mansa and Huayna and should take second place for that reason.
BFH: With the mirrored starts, everyone having 4 neighbors, and 3 civs likely to go for a religion, a lot comes down to really swingy diplomacy. The higher peaceweights are definitely at a disadvantage though. On paper Huayna seems to have the best overall hand. Pacal is also Fin+low PW but borders both high PWs and Cyrus who seems likely to expand well. With 3 financials in the game it seems hard to imagine one of them won't get left alone and win, and it seems unwise to bet against HC lately. Or Cathy/Cyrus could go crazy and attack HC and the game becomes complete chaos.
haphazard1: Mansa Musa picks the wrong game to attempt grabbing an early religion and gets off to a slow start without improved food sources. He ends up first to die as the low peace weight leaders go on a rampage. Pacal gains from Mali's destruction and becomes strongest, eventually winning by spaceship.
Bobchillingworth: I think we're in for a fairly short and peaceful Championship, despite the proliferation of "evil" leaders. Huey's coming out on top of a 3 v 1 is compelling proof that he's the Real Deal, and I think he'll tech his way to a dominant position prior to switching to culture. I'd have Mansa in contention to win, but he's more likely than anyone else to draw aggro, and unlike Churchill can't cower behind PRO / CHA Longbows for ages on end. Pacal for second solely because he's furthest away from Cathy, who is occupying the requisite "wildcard" role. Cyrus is a nice guy & all, but no way he can keep up with the three financial leaders.
Tokudiploftw: Going for Cathy/Cyrus simply because if not im afraid this will be a snoozefest. The rest are just techers and cultural seekers. This can only happen if Pacal and Capac both fail to landgrab, so Cathy and Cyrus ends up with big empires. Then Mansa 1v3/4 til death and Church thereafter. Building up a loving friendship between them. Yes yes i know, its not likely to happen
but who cares. I want a fun and bloody final game.
Keler: I see probability on one of these three winning Pacal,Huayna or Catherine. And runner up could be any of those four leaders Cyrus,Huayna,Pacal or Catherine And first to die is between Mansa and Churchill. Goodluck with your dice. As for my explanation: Catherine relies on snowballing on Pacal or Mansa, two very weak leaders in power. Cyrus gameplan is same way but too friendly AI. Pacal relies on being left alone for like first 200 turns, he is the fastest techer in the game and if no one solo conquers someone or Churchill doesn't ruin him he is likely to win space. Both Mansa Musa and Huayna slower in tech speed compared to Pacal, they both focus on culture a bit instead. And likely to turn culture slider at some point. Huayna sometimes doesn't but Mansa Musa always does. Huayna can win by culture if no one gets enough bigger than another. Churchill relies on snowballing on Pacal in contrast to Cyrus's Mansa killing gameplan. But even then late game he would end up in 2v1 war and lose.
delan: More like Civ4 Survivor All-Star Game... featuring special guest star Churchill. It's worth noting that our two Imperialistic leaders start next to each other, so they might expand in each other's business and have some extreme border tension, and that our two higher peace-weight AIs are next to each other, so they're probably more difficult outs than they would be if they were isolated from each other. I think it's unlikely that Mansa will get to tech in peace, and any game where you're not picking Mansa for first or second seems like the kind of game where Mansa ends up first to die. Otherwise, what hasn't Huayna Capac shown himself capable of this season? The king stay the king. Congrats on your Fantasy win, Sulllla, and thanks as always for putting this on!
Dagoth Gares: The only thing I feel reasonably sure about is that Pacal, as a discount Huayna, is going to get shown up by his Financial brethren here. As a side note, I was tempted to just enter the exact results from the season 2 championship.
eyser24: Cyrus is the true champion of season 2, and we have gotten so few dominations this year that I want to see it happen. He has been playing seriously this season and I think he will bring it this time. Mansa and Churchill are extremely fortunate to border one another but I think both are in trouble. I think Pacal has the best chance of the economic focused leaders in this game. Capac is a cheater and hopefully he is exposed as the fraud he is on this map. Catherine, and especially Cyrus, expand so fast I really hope they box him in and he becomes a nonfactor. Lastly, thanks again for holding another season of this and putting the effort in that you do. I have watched live since season 4, and this may actually have been the most entertaining season so far, which is impressive and really saying something. Ill keep watching these for as long as you do them!
pindicator: As I get farther from the top of the leaderboard, my picks become more and more longshots in hopes of catching up
Commodore: The winner will be a financial, that's a given. I think Mansa can convert his neighbors enough to overcome his peaceweight disadvantage, while HC gets squeezed by the Imperialists and Pacal does his usual slow landgrab. I see Mali winning here with culture.... so of course it's actually going to be Churchill via diplomacy to show Charlemagne how to *really* be an undeserving champion.
Fluffball: In the immortal words of Sesame Street: One of these things, is not like the others; one of these things doesn't belong. Anyway, I think they'll get off to a rough start with different religions, but eventually HC and Pacal will just be so far ahead of anyone else still alive they'll come in 1st and 2nd. I can see Cathy and Cyrus being good friends with one or the other and getting swatted aside late game in a random war lasting 8 turns.
RefSteel: If there is any justice in AI Survivor, Churchill will suffer a rapid, unceremonious, and ignominious exit. Either way, Mansa sadly isn't going to survive; his enemies here are too good at teching themselves to get left in his dust - and that's the only way he survives in low-peace-weight fields like this, typically. If Cathy plays her game to the hilt and gets a good share of land from those two dead men, she can beat any AI on the board - so here's hoping she does that instead of pRNGing off into a religious opening again!
Mansa da man: So this is it, the finale! Everyone has the same start so the only thing that really matters is the neighbours. The most probable favourite, Huayna, is actually in some trouble as he is crowded by imperialistic civs on both sides, including a creative Cathy. Add to that, a decent chance of getting back stabbed by Cathy and things aren't too bright. But he is arguably the best AI in terms of overall teching, peaceweight and aggression, just needs some breathing room. As for Mansa, boy oh boy does he have a target painted on his back with that peaceweight! Churchill likes him about as much as Cyrus! He's not out though, if Huayna gets squeezed and Churchill buys him time, no reason Mansa can't win this. He definitely needs some strong religious allies though, and some good old fashioned luck. As for the rest, Pacal is good at teching but is too passive (and likely to be ignored unlike Mansa who will get declared on at some point) which has quite often worked out well for him but this competition is miles better than anything he's faced upto this point. Cathy and Cyrus will probably stir up trouble but their path to victory is narrow vs the insane techers here, and needs them to expand well and strike quickly and efficiently. And there's Churchill who.... is there? I swear, if Churchill declares on Mansa first
SirSystemError: CUP OF TEA, ANYONE? THEY HAVE A SAYING THAT EVERYONE SHOULD REMEMBER. THE SUN NEVER SETS ON THE BRITISH EMPIRE!! EVERYONE VOTING EVERYONE ELSE - AND ESPECIALLY THOSE VOTING MANSA MUSA - WILL LEARN THIS THE HARD WAY AS "THE BRITISH BULLDOG" WINSTON "WINNIE" CHURCHILL BECOMES AN AI CHAMPION!! GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!!
Sir Colville of the Dale:
Mansa: "OK, Churchill, I think I can break us out in about a hundred turns. Play along with last game's performance."
*war declaration sound
Huayna: "Surprise! We're doing it now!"
Mansa: "Give credit where it's due. For being a religion and wonder obsessed leader specifically designed with a warrior UU, he's quite the clever warmonger."
Huayna: "You've probably figured it out, but I don't need you anymore. I found two new allies back here! Built specifically to knock out high peace weights!"
Mansa: "He found Catherine and Cyrus! Maybe I should have brought Darius along instead, but I needed to phase out other spaceship win threats. It wasn't anything personal. Financial and all..."
*war declaration sound
Mansa: "Ah! This is the part where he kills us!"
Huayna: "Hello! This is the part where I kill you."
Achievement Unlocked: Two-Time Champion (This is that part.)
Championship Game Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, August 6th!
The mirrored map setup for the championship makes it difficult to predict what will happen; aside from which leaders happen to border one another, the victory pick largely comes down to whomever the community thinks is the strongest. For Season Six that was Huayna Capac after watching him put on impressive performances in the Wildcard game and Playoff Game Three. Catherine and Pacal also drew their share of support and everyone picked up at least a few votes, even Churchill although that may have been people trolling the contest. The Runner Up category was more divided, as usual, with Pacal taking the most votes narrowly ahead of Cyrus, Catherine, and Huayna Capac. Mansa Musa and Churchill were both popular choices for First to Die and there was near-universal agreement that one of these two high peace weight leaders would bow out first. For the victory type, Spaceship was the most popular choice and the recent run of Cultural victory had it sitting in second place well ahead of Domination. This season had seen the fewest Domination victories of any AI Survivor competition with only two thus far (and none since Game Five!)
Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!
Eauxps I. Fourgott: Sorry, Mansa. Even with Churchill on the board, you're still a marked man and you'll need some pretty insane breaks to not get knocked out here. In his wake, Huayna and Pacal will be the big Financial dogs going at it. Huayna will go for culture again, and thus open up the opportunity for Pacal to strike, knock him out, and go to space for his first championship. Cathy is situated to take gains from both Mansa and Huayna and should take second place for that reason.
BFH: With the mirrored starts, everyone having 4 neighbors, and 3 civs likely to go for a religion, a lot comes down to really swingy diplomacy. The higher peaceweights are definitely at a disadvantage though. On paper Huayna seems to have the best overall hand. Pacal is also Fin+low PW but borders both high PWs and Cyrus who seems likely to expand well. With 3 financials in the game it seems hard to imagine one of them won't get left alone and win, and it seems unwise to bet against HC lately. Or Cathy/Cyrus could go crazy and attack HC and the game becomes complete chaos.
haphazard1: Mansa Musa picks the wrong game to attempt grabbing an early religion and gets off to a slow start without improved food sources. He ends up first to die as the low peace weight leaders go on a rampage. Pacal gains from Mali's destruction and becomes strongest, eventually winning by spaceship.
Bobchillingworth: I think we're in for a fairly short and peaceful Championship, despite the proliferation of "evil" leaders. Huey's coming out on top of a 3 v 1 is compelling proof that he's the Real Deal, and I think he'll tech his way to a dominant position prior to switching to culture. I'd have Mansa in contention to win, but he's more likely than anyone else to draw aggro, and unlike Churchill can't cower behind PRO / CHA Longbows for ages on end. Pacal for second solely because he's furthest away from Cathy, who is occupying the requisite "wildcard" role. Cyrus is a nice guy & all, but no way he can keep up with the three financial leaders.
Tokudiploftw: Going for Cathy/Cyrus simply because if not im afraid this will be a snoozefest. The rest are just techers and cultural seekers. This can only happen if Pacal and Capac both fail to landgrab, so Cathy and Cyrus ends up with big empires. Then Mansa 1v3/4 til death and Church thereafter. Building up a loving friendship between them. Yes yes i know, its not likely to happen
but who cares. I want a fun and bloody final game.Keler: I see probability on one of these three winning Pacal,Huayna or Catherine. And runner up could be any of those four leaders Cyrus,Huayna,Pacal or Catherine And first to die is between Mansa and Churchill. Goodluck with your dice. As for my explanation: Catherine relies on snowballing on Pacal or Mansa, two very weak leaders in power. Cyrus gameplan is same way but too friendly AI. Pacal relies on being left alone for like first 200 turns, he is the fastest techer in the game and if no one solo conquers someone or Churchill doesn't ruin him he is likely to win space. Both Mansa Musa and Huayna slower in tech speed compared to Pacal, they both focus on culture a bit instead. And likely to turn culture slider at some point. Huayna sometimes doesn't but Mansa Musa always does. Huayna can win by culture if no one gets enough bigger than another. Churchill relies on snowballing on Pacal in contrast to Cyrus's Mansa killing gameplan. But even then late game he would end up in 2v1 war and lose.
delan: More like Civ4 Survivor All-Star Game... featuring special guest star Churchill. It's worth noting that our two Imperialistic leaders start next to each other, so they might expand in each other's business and have some extreme border tension, and that our two higher peace-weight AIs are next to each other, so they're probably more difficult outs than they would be if they were isolated from each other. I think it's unlikely that Mansa will get to tech in peace, and any game where you're not picking Mansa for first or second seems like the kind of game where Mansa ends up first to die. Otherwise, what hasn't Huayna Capac shown himself capable of this season? The king stay the king. Congrats on your Fantasy win, Sulllla, and thanks as always for putting this on!
Dagoth Gares: The only thing I feel reasonably sure about is that Pacal, as a discount Huayna, is going to get shown up by his Financial brethren here. As a side note, I was tempted to just enter the exact results from the season 2 championship.
eyser24: Cyrus is the true champion of season 2, and we have gotten so few dominations this year that I want to see it happen. He has been playing seriously this season and I think he will bring it this time. Mansa and Churchill are extremely fortunate to border one another but I think both are in trouble. I think Pacal has the best chance of the economic focused leaders in this game. Capac is a cheater and hopefully he is exposed as the fraud he is on this map. Catherine, and especially Cyrus, expand so fast I really hope they box him in and he becomes a nonfactor. Lastly, thanks again for holding another season of this and putting the effort in that you do. I have watched live since season 4, and this may actually have been the most entertaining season so far, which is impressive and really saying something. Ill keep watching these for as long as you do them!
pindicator: As I get farther from the top of the leaderboard, my picks become more and more longshots in hopes of catching up
Commodore: The winner will be a financial, that's a given. I think Mansa can convert his neighbors enough to overcome his peaceweight disadvantage, while HC gets squeezed by the Imperialists and Pacal does his usual slow landgrab. I see Mali winning here with culture.... so of course it's actually going to be Churchill via diplomacy to show Charlemagne how to *really* be an undeserving champion.
Fluffball: In the immortal words of Sesame Street: One of these things, is not like the others; one of these things doesn't belong. Anyway, I think they'll get off to a rough start with different religions, but eventually HC and Pacal will just be so far ahead of anyone else still alive they'll come in 1st and 2nd. I can see Cathy and Cyrus being good friends with one or the other and getting swatted aside late game in a random war lasting 8 turns.
RefSteel: If there is any justice in AI Survivor, Churchill will suffer a rapid, unceremonious, and ignominious exit. Either way, Mansa sadly isn't going to survive; his enemies here are too good at teching themselves to get left in his dust - and that's the only way he survives in low-peace-weight fields like this, typically. If Cathy plays her game to the hilt and gets a good share of land from those two dead men, she can beat any AI on the board - so here's hoping she does that instead of pRNGing off into a religious opening again!
Mansa da man: So this is it, the finale! Everyone has the same start so the only thing that really matters is the neighbours. The most probable favourite, Huayna, is actually in some trouble as he is crowded by imperialistic civs on both sides, including a creative Cathy. Add to that, a decent chance of getting back stabbed by Cathy and things aren't too bright. But he is arguably the best AI in terms of overall teching, peaceweight and aggression, just needs some breathing room. As for Mansa, boy oh boy does he have a target painted on his back with that peaceweight! Churchill likes him about as much as Cyrus! He's not out though, if Huayna gets squeezed and Churchill buys him time, no reason Mansa can't win this. He definitely needs some strong religious allies though, and some good old fashioned luck. As for the rest, Pacal is good at teching but is too passive (and likely to be ignored unlike Mansa who will get declared on at some point) which has quite often worked out well for him but this competition is miles better than anything he's faced upto this point. Cathy and Cyrus will probably stir up trouble but their path to victory is narrow vs the insane techers here, and needs them to expand well and strike quickly and efficiently. And there's Churchill who.... is there? I swear, if Churchill declares on Mansa first
SirSystemError: CUP OF TEA, ANYONE? THEY HAVE A SAYING THAT EVERYONE SHOULD REMEMBER. THE SUN NEVER SETS ON THE BRITISH EMPIRE!! EVERYONE VOTING EVERYONE ELSE - AND ESPECIALLY THOSE VOTING MANSA MUSA - WILL LEARN THIS THE HARD WAY AS "THE BRITISH BULLDOG" WINSTON "WINNIE" CHURCHILL BECOMES AN AI CHAMPION!! GOD SAVE THE QUEEN!!
Sir Colville of the Dale:
Mansa: "OK, Churchill, I think I can break us out in about a hundred turns. Play along with last game's performance."
*war declaration sound
Huayna: "Surprise! We're doing it now!"
Mansa: "Give credit where it's due. For being a religion and wonder obsessed leader specifically designed with a warrior UU, he's quite the clever warmonger."
Huayna: "You've probably figured it out, but I don't need you anymore. I found two new allies back here! Built specifically to knock out high peace weights!"
Mansa: "He found Catherine and Cyrus! Maybe I should have brought Darius along instead, but I needed to phase out other spaceship win threats. It wasn't anything personal. Financial and all..."
*war declaration sound
Mansa: "Ah! This is the part where he kills us!"
Huayna: "Hello! This is the part where I kill you."
Achievement Unlocked: Two-Time Champion (This is that part.)
Championship Game Picking Contest Entry Form
Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, August 6th!
A very entertaining close to a great season. Thanks again to Sullla for running these games. 
