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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread
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luddite Wrote:But seriously, if what you say is true, then how do you explain this? I'd like to hear some reason for this, or my vote will definitely be changed for Sandover.
February 17th, 2011, 10:55
(This post was last modified: February 17th, 2011, 10:56 by Ug the Barbarian.)
One horrible thought occurred to me but I don't have the game experience to know the answer
Is there a FOOL version for the baner ?
Another thing that puzzles me.
Sandover Wrote:I went on my crusade to prevent scrying him for two reasons: Ok, you are sure of MJW's guilt (being the real baner, and all). But yet you didn't want our seer to know the truth about it. Did you just expect the seer to scan you randomly and meanwhile let him ponder if MJW is telling the truth or not? And everyone suggesting to scrie MJW _must_ be wolfs? I would imagine the real baner jumping out of joy, knowing that the fake Baner / wolf will be identified by our seer on the first day! Edit: Still I secretly wish that Sandover would be the real banor, because of the alternative... :D luddite Wrote:You tried to get Rowain lynched, and argued that Rowain being a wolf would prove MJW innocent. Why were you trying to make an argument for MJW's innocence? Because I didn't want to reveal myself as the baner, which would've been obvious if I started screaming "WOLF" as soon as MJW outed himself. I was trying to come across as the seer to the wolves, so they would waste one night's action one my protection. I didn't realize I would get jumped by the village for being active, fully expecting someone not saying a lot to get lynched no matter where my vote landed. Sandover Wrote:Since he [MJW] might be the baner we should leave him be for now - we'll find out if he's a wolf or not easily enough later on. Scrying him would be a waste at this point since he'll be revealed as a liar anyway once the real baner becomes known. He first talks like MJW could be the baner, but then he writes "he'll be revealed as a liar anyway once the real baner becomes known" - that does not sound for me like if he is just thinking he might be a liar but that Sandover was absolutely sure about it. If Sandover is the real baner this would make sense. His next post here also shows that he is desperately trying not to get MJW the Major as well and I think he tries to tell us that MJW is a wolf. Though his later posts (as pointed out already) sound like he is not so certain about MJW being a wolf... not sure what to think of all that right now. Meiz Wrote:Ok, you are sure of MJW's guilt (being the real baner, and all). But yet you didn't want our seer to know the truth about it. Did you just expect the seer to scan you randomly and meanwhile let him ponder if MJW is telling the truth or not? I wasn't expecting a random scan, but I knew it could happen, in which case scrying MJW first would've been wasteful. I'd also prefer if the seer got a villager over a wolf for the first day or two, so he can start building a trusted network. Quote:And everyone suggesting to scrie MJW _must_ be wolfs? I would imagine the real baner jumping out of joy, knowing that the fake Baner / wolf will be identified by our seer on the first day! No they must not. But by my logic they were either wolves trying to flush out the real baner or villagers making a bad call, so I didn't mind getting them some attention. I never expected my votes to get as much support as they did, and fully expected someone not so active to get voted off first. And I definitly didn't jump out of joy. Sandover Wrote:FINE. You're forcing my hand here. First off, this is about what I expected of you Sandover. It is, as far as I can see, you're only guaranteed shot at saving yourself, short of refuting the evidence I've laid out piece by piece. You've elected not to do so, whether because you're a 'Wolf (you'd rather take the easy play), or because you're a Villager who simply can't come up with anything meaningful to defend with. Not a criticism, just an observation. Gut reaction? 'Wolf. Plain and simple. However, nothing is ever plain nor simple, especially here and now. So, let's take a step back and look at logic. The safest play we can do now is put both MJW and Sandover on hold, in terms of lynching either. Moreover, we should wipe them both off as Mayor candidates. Doing this is not without risks - especially since this does absolutely nothing to validate Sandover as a Villager, only to cast doubt that we should lynch him at all. However, as I've stressed, I feel the Baner is the most important role we have on our side at this point, so losing him to a 50/50 shot is not ideal to me. What else does this do? For me, it raises serious suspicion over both Sandover and MJW. While there's not yet enough at first glance to accuse them of collusion, there's enough to assume that we can trust neither of them. MJW was in a trusted position - if he's a 'Wolf, somebody just blew his cover wide open. Sandover was, in my eyes, in a very suspicious position - this has done nothing to alleviate that, and indeed only makes him more suspicious. Frankly, it's a big gambit, and it leads me to believe that only one of the two is a 'Wolf - but that's far from set in stone. Sandover Wrote:I went on my crusade to prevent scrying him for two reasons: 1) Just because YOU "know" he's a 'Wolf doesn't mean anyone else is. Therefore, it's makes sense to scry him - especially if he is both Baner and Mayor. The Seer doesn't need to make his findings known publicly, yet. All he needs is one or two trusted people to work with - I think everyone has at least one or two people in mind that fit that category, outside of MJW and Sandover. Moreover, if you're so certain he's a 'Wolf, why would you NOT want the Seer to scry him? You have no idea who the Seer is, so how can you reveal the idea that you're the Baner to him without making yourself vulnerable, let alone him? 2) Nothing you have done thus far leads me to believe you are the Seer. Nothing even remotely gave me that impression, ever. You're making deep assumptions and expecting us to buy into them without any shred of evidence save for your "say so". More nails in the coffin for you, my friend. Having said all that, I must reiterate one thing: we now have serious question as to whether MJW or Sandover are truly who they say they are. This is the PERFECT moves for the 'Wolves to make if Sandover is a 'Wolf, and much less so if MJW is a 'Wolf (although still valid) and Sandover is indeed innocent. The idea that they are both 'Wolves just doesn't pan out for me yet, but there is some evidence to support the theory - and I'll admit that MJW is by no means on my "trusted" list yet. Personally, I'm leaving my vote on Sandover. There's still 3.5 hours left to digest all this, and it reeks to me of a power play by the 'Wolves. Nothing to lose, everything to gain (unless both MJW and Sandover are 'Wolves, but then all they're doing is calling into question both while only saving one, and at the same time losing the power of the other), and at the very least buys the 'Wolves time - something we have much more of. To everyone else, I implore you to search your own feelings on the matter, and NOT rush to any conclusions just yet - for, or against, anyone. The SAFEST move we can make is to spare both MJW and Sandover, for now - and even that is risky, because neither is credible at all now. However, it virtually eliminates the possibility of us lynching the Baner on the first turn (as near as we can tell; anyone else want to throw their hat into this circus??). I still firmly believe Sandover is a 'Wolf, perhaps more now than ever, but I will understand if others beliefs are shaken. It PAINS me that it has come to this, but such is where we are. I have every intention of being here in the final moments. Bold play, Sandover, but far from wise. Roland Wrote:1) Just because YOU "know" he's a 'Wolf doesn't mean anyone else is. Therefore, it's makes sense to scry him - especially if he is both Baner and Mayor. The Seer doesn't need to make his findings known publicly, yet. All he needs is one or two trusted people to work with - I think everyone has at least one or two people in mind that fit that category, outside of MJW and Sandover. Moreover, if you're so certain he's a 'Wolf, why would you NOT want the Seer to scry him? You have no idea who the Seer is, so how can you reveal the idea that you're the Baner to him without making yourself vulnerable, let alone him? I've already been over this. IT WAS FAIRLY LIKELY HE WOULD GET REVEALED AS A WOLF WITHOUT THE SCRY, EITHER THROUGH ME GETTING A SCRY OR MY BEING ABLE TO CONVINCE THE VILLAGE OF HIS GUILT ONCE HE SLIPPED UP. Quote:2) Nothing you have done thus far leads me to believe you are the Seer. Nothing even remotely gave me that impression, ever. You're making deep assumptions and expecting us to buy into them without any shred of evidence save for your "say so". More nails in the coffin for you, my friend. It's "baner". And I didn't expect you would, because honestly, I think you're the mastermind who set MJW up for this task. You saw the chance to get someone innocent lynched while gaining a huge credibility increase, and you took it. You accused me because I set bandwagons in motion, yet now, when your very own bandwagon is about to take down the baner you're even more convinced I'm a wolf? You probably have villagers sending you private messages already, because they are convinced from your skillful writing alone that everything you say make sense. I won't ever win an argumentation against you. No chance. You're many levels above me. But that is what I think. Worst part is they will probably still peg you as innocent even after leading the mob to lynch me, because you're just so damn convincing. Quote:I have every intention of being here in the final moments. Bold play, Sandover, but far from wise. Can't you see how he's making it sound like he's the leader of the whole damn village already?
Still not sure what is true, but one thing what Sandover mentioned is true: It sounds like Roland is already getting PMs. I don't like that to be honest because there is really no reason to believe he is more (or less for that matter) innocent than anyone else. I wondered earlier why scooter mentioned that he knows that Roland hoped for his vote on Sandover - did I overread something in the thread or was that a private conversation between you two? If you are really already on day 1 trying to setup a lynching in private then I am inclined to believe Sandover. Because I feel that this is not the right villager play - its far to easy to help the wolves all along, especially on day 1. And truth be told, the fastest amount on votes on anyone was with Sandover. I first thought this is because Roland convinced the others with his posts here - but what if that isn't the truth? What if in reality it's just a bunch of wolves? I mean honestly, out of 7 (or 8? does someone have an actual tally?) votes it is pretty sure that at least 2.3 are wolves as the village consists to 30% of wolves.
And I feel that the best thing right now is NOT to put our baner on a 50% chance - not if this bandwagon on Sandover was initiated via PMs. Lets find another target for today, neither MJW nor Sandover. Quote:Mayor: I think only Ug changed sice last time |
