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Ceiliazul · February 26th, 2012, 18:53

timski Wrote:Initial Micro
you skipped completing the road 2N of Mario

Duck Hunt now isn't 2-pop whipping anything

I presumed the allure of working DH's tiles was too strong.

there are a lot of wasted Worker moves: 4 turns alone for Worker #2 and #3 while moving from their DH chops to the NE road.

We're paying a high price for ensuring a founding chop into Ninja Gaiden (ex Fort Knox), and a founding road into the northern city.

All of that is correct. We have a tremendous surplus of workers at the moment, which will turn into an instantaneous shortage when city 3/4 go down. That means, awkward as it is, I'm trying to get ahead of the next 2 cities.

timski Wrote:If GingerEagle is heading for Organised Religion now, they'll gain Masonry en route. And with 2 coastal cities, Sailing is going to be a very high priority for them. Plus they have plenty of chops available in their capital. On the flip-side, the Great Lighthouse isn't ideal for GingerEagle (Financial bonus does not apply), while GingerEagle should be prioritising elsewhere in the coming turns - Workers, Phalanx, more Workers, Settlers

Agreed, and this is why I'm hoping for just a smidge of breathing room on the GLH build. Not much though. I like your whip analysis and agree completely.

timski Wrote:Agreed on the early Galley for the extra trade income. Does this map allow circumnavigation? It was described as flat, so I assume not.

Correct, flat map so no circumnav. However, we have increasingly compelling reasons to get a galley in the water... see t35 report.

timski Wrote:Commodore's latest T34 Worker build - in spite of only having 1 Warrior to cover their entire choked-to-death territory - evokes the archetypal deluded dictator:

No power bump from Commodore lately, no archery tech in sight! jive

timski Wrote:If Kyan's Veteran has now gone home, Kyan's anti-Commodore strategy was perhaps focused solely on allowing Kyan to build the Oracle - delaying Commodore just enough. Kyan isn't obviously in a hurry to invade.

Again, Oracle is nerfed on this map. If Kyan takes the Oracle but hands me the Commodore capital and commanding position on Comm's blob, that's a win for me! This is not to be understated. Kyan is giving up a huge opportunity if he goes for Oracle now.

Ceiliazul · February 26th, 2012, 19:09

Priority: Scouting

[Image: 035.ge.JPG]

Koopa is starting down the spit. Unfortunately it is longer than initially thought. Already he has shown us that far-flung horse is balanced... no immediate horsey concerns from Ginger or anyone.

The real action though is Scout. He's revealed at least 2 and possibly 3 islands. With such a long land border, I can get better triangulation with shadow analysis.

What it shows is an increasingly clear picture of the offshore islands. We need galleys asap to settle the nearby islands, and see how accessible the large island is. Note that island may be an astronomy-only island, we need to know this as soon as possible.

Demos:

Whipping has commenced all over the world. Likely this first round of whips is going into granaries: we're 2-3 turns ahead of the others' whip cycles. jive

Just as good, no one is gearing up for war. Ginger Eagle has our graphs. If he's even paying general attention to them, my power spike means "stay far, far away." Here's hoping he's paying attention! thumbsup

timski

Would help to have the resource icon turned on for these scouting pictures - it is especially hard to read the seafood.

C&D

On T34 Kyan/Dazed gained a lot of power. After whips, there is a net 9 power point gain (-2+9=7), with only 2 of those points potentially attributable to GingerEagle. Via graphs, has GingerEagle's power risen by 2, or remained flat? Only Dazed scored a tech (albeit technically unscored it again with a whip).

Net 9 power screams "Barracks and Axeman". I can't discount the possibility that Dazed teched Archery (which alone would take them up to the 34 rival power max). Dazed did not have Pottery prior, so did not whip a Granary T34. Dazed whipping an Axe, while perhaps teching Pottery, makes much more sense. Meanwhile, if Kyan whipped a Granary in their capital, their T33 tech would have to have been Pottery, not Priesthood. I should be careful given earlier errors, but Kyan is still the obvious benefactor of the Barracks. Kyan's second city hasn't grown yet, so could have easily produce a Barracks on hammers, even if the capital whipped a Granary.

And then there's the wildcard option, that we're not seeing a Barracks nor a tech, but a third city from Dazed. However, another city is not apparent from the population demos, which are now somewhat easier to read (since Crystal Palace was whipped).

On T35 there's a net 4 point power increase somewhere in the world, but no change in the rival max. Added: Commodore rose to 23, so has a second Warrior. GingerEagle scored a tech T35, which was either Sailing or a non-power tech. Nothing more powerful than Sailing, since GingerEagle was already at 32 power. And if it were Sailing, you would have noticed an immediate neighbour bonus, right? Gut feeling is still Masonry, due to the tech multiplier. GingerEagle's GNP has dropped dramatically since, so I'm expecting either Monotheism or Sailing next.

So there's another 2 power somewhere, which is increasingly hard to explain, since none should be building Warriors, surely? Commodore excepted. Perhaps GingerEagle's Granary overflowed into a Warrior when they saw our power spike? Stranger things have happened. Average power is 29.75, with Commodore on 23, means that the top 3 rivals are one something like 34-32-30 power. Maybe 34-34-28 if GingerEagle built the Warrior, Dazed the Axe, and Kyan the Barracks.

Would be useful if you can also confirm: (1) Any change in GingerEagle's power since T33. (2) Any neighbour bonus on Masonry or Archery.

And now for the important stuff...

Super Mario Species Archetypes, via Mario Wiki:

Bill Blaster - Cannons: "A black cannon that fires Bullet Bills. They are usually used as defense emplacements in fortresses and castles."
Blargg - Submarines: "Large monsters commonly found inhabiting pools of lava in underground caverns."
Blooper - Light naval vessels: "Squid-like creatures that are found in the ocean."
Bob-omb - Catapults (also see Spike): "Living, moving mechanical bombs with eyes and have a wind-up in the back."
Bullet Bill - Rifles: "Missile-like projectiles."
Chain Chomps - Maces: "Bear a resemblance to a ball and chain."
Cheep-Cheep - Galleys: "Common recurring [fish] enemies."
Goonie - Light aircraft: "White birds."
Hammer Bro - Archers: "A species of Koopa that stand upright and throw hammers at passers-by."
Lakitu - Bombers: "Bespectacled Koopas who ride clouds through the skies. Lakitus are the best known for tossing Spiny Eggs."
Magikoopa - Early gunpowder: "Koopa Wizards."
Monty Moles - Horse Archers: "Generally cowards who throw rocks at Mario and will then burrow underground before Mario can attack them."
Shy Guy - Scouts and Explorers: "Timid troublemakers known for their robes and masks: Run! Run for it!"
Shroob - Advanced military: "They possess very advanced technology, such as ray guns and a massive fleet of flying saucers."
Skellobit - Spearmen: As pictured, holding a spear.
Spike - Catacpults (also see Bob-omb): "Throws spiked balls."
Spiny - Axemen: "Quadruped Koopas with a menacing look."
Thwomp - Early tanks/War Elephants: "Spike-encrusted living stones ... typically attempt to fall on and flatten or squash whoever passes below them."
Wiggler - Chariots?: "Resembling large real-world caterpillars."

On that basis, I propose:

Red Shy Guy - our eastern Scout:

Spiny and Spikey - our southern Axes:

timski

Going to post these ideas here, so I can find them again:

With a 1 turn slower Settler at Marios Bros, there are some Worker micro improvements possible:

It looks like Worker #4 no longer goes south, and instead roads up to the NW GingerEagle choke city. That city really only needs one Worker initially, since the best improvements are in the second ring. I don't even much care to rush the Beaver Camp, just chop the forest.
The Knox chop uses only the Worker than finished the southern road, which fits, since Fort Knox is now founded a turn later. The southern ex-Duck Hunt chop Worker mines the southern Copper, which comes online just in time to complete Knox's Granary at size 2, with the Sheep also Pastured by them. Not perfect, but it works pretty well.
So there's a some-what slack Worker between the northern DH chop, and the NW city Cow pasturing, who can probably Cottage a Duck Hunt Flood Plain, allowing Duck Hunt to work all-great tiles at size 5. This slack Worker could be used on something else - the Flood Plains Cottage is just nearby and ultimately useful.

On delaying the settler from Duck by 1 more turn and save a chop: Since the Workers are already on the forests, we should chop, else lose several Worker turns for nothing. One option is to delay the start of Duck Hunt's Settler by 1 turn, while growing Duck Hunt to size 4 (a turn on the Flood Plains, rather than Cows), chop the southern forest, and Cottage-chop the northern. The first chop overflows off the Axe, the second can either go into the Settler, or (if the Settler is 2-pop whipped on T40 - before the Cottage chop completes) overflows off that into whatever follows the Settler - potentially a 1 turn Worker, right about when we need it. Duck Hunt can then grow back while slow-building an Axe/etc. Sim that one, because it looks quite finely balanced. The Cottage-chop only takes 2 turns longer than the regular chop, so is quite an efficient move, even if the Cottage isn't urgently needed.

On Mario Bros: On the current setup, if the Settler is 2-pop whipped on T38, it overflows by 17 hammers into a Lighthouse. So if the city is to regrow to size 4 on T40, it will also put precisely 20 hammers into the Lighthouse, making the thing no longer 2-pop whip-able! That's an annoying side-affect of having grown to size 5. In short, work a sub-optimal tile for the first turn of the Settler, so that we can still 2-pop whip the Lighthouse.

Added: So for one turn of the Settler, work Deer, Fish, Rice, grass mine and inland water, not forest plains hill. Settler is then whipped on T38, into a 19/40 Lighthouse, regrows to size 4 on auto-tiles the following turn. Queue the Ligthouse at 19/40 while waiting for Masonry, putting a few more hammers into the Axe, while growing. Lighthouse can then be 2-pop whipped into the GLH for maximum overflow. Then we can sequentially whip overflow the Axe and further Worker into the GLH, as previously described. GLH ~EOT 51. But getting just one hammer/food less into the Settler is critical to getting those overflows to work neatly.

Ceiliazul · February 28th, 2012, 02:01

timski Wrote:With a 1 turn slower Settler at Marios Bros
...
I don't even much care to rush the Beaver Camp, just chop the forest.

Nice! In fact... we can found 1t later with a triple whip, and get in 2 more axes for a possible anti greek option! We'll use those forests against him, if we can... I simmed this and it comes out ahead in pop at the capital AND an extra axe.

timski Wrote:The Knox chop uses only the Worker than finished the southern road, which fits, since Fort Knox is now founded a turn later. The southern ex-Duck Hunt chop Worker mines the southern Copper, which comes online just in time to complete Knox's Granary at size 2, with the Sheep also Pastured by them. Not perfect, but it works pretty well.

Brilliant! Except that now we're a turn later again, so the knox chopper is again idle for a turn. He'll just retreat in our borders (on cow) for 1t before launching toward ft. knox.

timski Wrote:So there's a some-what slack Worker between the northern DH chop, and the NW city Cow pasturing, who can probably Cottage a Duck Hunt Flood Plain, allowing Duck Hunt to work all-great tiles at size 5. This slack Worker could be used on something else - the Flood Plains Cottage is just nearby and ultimately useful.

Love it! Instead of cottaging though, I'll road that tile with the extra turns, eventually speeding future pioneers. This way

Now, that again blows up any lighthouse plans. The city will grow back very fast, however and can likely 2x whip a lighthouse without issue.

Micro detail

That's 3 additional axes by t39. Reinforcements for Commodore if needed, or a pair of axes to go scout GE. The worker logjam is somewhat reduced, and no loss to the GLH at all!

Ceiliazul · February 28th, 2012, 02:37

Bank Error in Your Favor

...collect 2 food.

I went back and rechecked my sim. I don't know how it happened but the real game shows duck hunt with 2 extra food this turn, allowing it to grow to size4 with the axe! Again, I'm completely befuddled. We can still keep the current settling plans, but it may be possible to push the Duck settler up 1t. The error seems to be in how the granary filled... I may have to go waaay back to fix it. :-(

[Image: 036.1.JPG]

Commodore got a tech this turn... but no power! Priesthood? I'll laugh hard if that's really the case. In any case, if he hasn't started archery yet, he's toast. No major power bumps from my opponents either.

That worker is chop/mining the hill. I guess he thinks the event horizon is further away?

[Image: 036.2.JPG]

timski · February 28th, 2012, 06:59

Event horizon indeed. Commodore is definitely in a black hole, about to be crushed by overwhelming mass...

At best Commodore will notice the road connection complete on T37 (assuming we stage on the Beaver). On T38 our Axes move onto their Copper, coincidently threatening their Worker, so they won't get a single chop into anything. And Goomba will presumably be on hand for a Worker steal if they continue chopping. And if Commodore is still trying to chop the Oracle... smoke

doesn't cover it.

The extra Duck Hunt food is confusing, but most welcome. Bonus points for 3-pop whipping Mario Bros' Settler bow

. And it goes without saying that my paranoia is comforted by plans for extra Axes. Worker #1 can always put 1 turn into roading the Knox hill. If completed, a road there might help defensively, and speed a Worker back onto the hill when it is eventually mined - better than nothing?

Without seeing the demos, I suspect Kyan and Dazed both regrew, while Kyan gained another tech. With no power changes, Kyan may yet be going for the Oracle too jive

.

Any updates on my earlier questions - changes in GingerEagle's power since T33 and/or neighbour bonuses on Masonry or Archery?

timski

C&D looks straightforward: 31.5 rival average power, 35 maximum, 23 minimum. So the top 3 rivals are 35-34-34, with only 1 point margin for error. Kyan rose to 35, up from 28. 1 point from population. 6 power from something - likely either an Axe or Archery on T36. Or more accurately, between Dazed and Kyan there are 6 power points each over T34/T36 - most probably an Axe each. GingerEagle is still assumed to have scored 2 power on T35 - either a Warrior or Sailing.

Added: Dazed did not regrow, and therefore either teched something or settled a third city. The population demos do not suggest a new city, so Dazed probably teched something peaceful (or if they do now have Archery, they haven't built any Axes at all yet).

Commodore is now working Fish and Deer, presumably for another Worker. Commodore's GNP is down to 18. That has to be something with no pre-requsites, and minimal neighbour bonus: Agriculture is the only technical possiblity, since neither Kyan or Dazed are expected to have it, and there's no reason to suppose GingerEagle and Commodore have made contact. Critically Commodore cannot be now researching Pottery, which means they're not planning to Oracling Metal Casting anytime soon. Hence Commodore may not have teched Priesthood on T36, but may have teched Pottery instead.

At the bottom of page 19, I explained Commodore's base GNP of 17, which is stable, because they're always working the Fish. Their GNP varies depending on tech, as follows:

1 pre-requisite and no neighbour bonus: GNP = 19.9 = 19 (rounded down, as displayed).
1 pre-requisite and 1 neighbour bonus: GNP = 20.7 = 20.
1 pre-requisite and 2 neighbour bonuses: GNP = 21.5 = 21 (critically more than 20).

We know Commodore have at least contact with Kyan and ourselves, Dazed is not relevant, and I shall assume no contact with GingerEagle (following the Agriculture logic above). Commodore's GNP on T33 was 20: 1 pre-requisite and 1 neighbour bonus. So, if Commodore was teching Priesthood, Kyan must have gained Priesthood as their T33 tech, to grant the neighbour bonus. If Commodore was teching Pottery, then Kyan must not have gained Pottery on T33, because Commodore gained the neighbour bonus only from us. Finally add in Commodore's current Agriculture - no pre-requisite and no more than 1 neighbour bonus - and we can confirm that Kyan does not have Agriculture, since Commodore gains the neighbour bonus only from us.

What does that mean? Kyan cannot have teched Pottery or Agriculture on T33! It doesn't tell us what Commodore did tech on T35 - one of Pottery or Priesthood - but I don't much care. We cannot absolutely confirm Priesthood from Kyan on T33, but if they didn't tech Pottery, it is the only sensible choice.

Ok, so I have a lot resting on rounding maths, which I'm uncomfortable with. But if I'm correct, without Pottery on T33, Kyan couldn't whip a Granary, so had to 2-pop whip a Barracks (or maybe a Buddhist Monastery), overflowing into... the Oracle. Hence their T36 tech was Pottery (for Metal Casting), and their T36 power was (except for 1 point of population) from an Axe. It's at least a theory, and if the Oracle falls in a few turns, that's what they did.

(I'm unclear how the Aggressive bonus factors in - I assume they still can 2-pop whip a Barracks. Barracks was built that turn, but could also have been slow-built in their second city. Perhaps the Axe was queued prior to the Barracks, and is being used to manage overflows? Or maybe the Axe came out of their second city? Enough possibilities to make it all plausible.)

Now, I said that analysis doesn't reveal Commodore's precise tech, but it might, if we make some more assumptions about Dazed: On T35, Commodore's GNP was still 20. If Dazed teched Pottery on T34 (likely if they also built an Axe) and Commodore had contact with Dazed (likely, but not certain), then Commodore must have been teching Priesthood.

In summary:

Commodore is currently teching Agriculture, having abandoned plans for the Oracle. They have one of Pottery or Priesthood, seem to be building a Worker, and have not met GingerEagle.
Kyan did NOT tech Pottery (or Agriculture) on T33. Kyan is possibly now on the verge of completing the Oracle, having teched Pottery T36, while building an Axe.

As normal, it is possible I've missed something hopelessly obvious.

timski

Micro revision, assuming both Settlers are whipped T39, out T40:

Both Duck Hunt chops can go into the Settler and still allow it to be 2-pop whipped, so I have assumed no roading on T36 (as per sim). Both Workers then team to complete the road 1E of Duck Hunt T39, before moving to chop the 1SW of Knox (for a faster Granary), and finally complete the southern Copper mine T44. That gets Knox's Granary up before growing to size 2 (no whipping of the Granary, so much faster growth subsequently), and the leaves the Workers were we need them geographically (3 in the south, where the bulk of the improvements will be needed). Note that if this is followed, Knox should perhaps work one turn on the grass forest (before it is chopped) and one turn on a grass hill, so the Granary finishes neatly on T46, at the cost of 2 food total (from not working the Flood Plains - not so bad, since no tiles are improved yet).

The earlier northern Settler means Worker #4 does not road the Cows, rather roads straight to the city site. That gets the northern city connected the same turn it is founded. Trade aside, anything else is too risky for a border site.

To give the northern city a second Worker by the time it needs it, Duck Hunt follows the Settler with a 2-turn Worker (out T42), before growing back. This new Worker can put some turns into a Cottage or random roads, before moving to the northern Cows. I assumed they finished the Cottage 1NE of Mario Bros.

Mario Bros will need a garrison for extended periods to maintain happiness especially once construction of the Great Lighthouse starts, so our extra Axe isn't as flexible as we might like.

Not sure how you see Knox developing. Long term it is a great financial city (2 Flood Plains, 4 river grass, Beaver, Wines). But it also has more hills than any other site we've seen, and is closer to Kyan, so has short-term military potential. Ideally the National Epic should go in a coastal city. But so far our best coastal production site is the Horse-Moai... I guess we shall see what scouting reveals. But in the meantime, an early Barracks in Knox seems reasonable.

Ceiliazul · March 2nd, 2012, 01:06

On the road again

timski Wrote:Mario Bros will need a garrison for extended periods to maintain happiness especially once construction of the Great Lighthouse starts, so our extra Axe isn't as flexible as we might like.

Yes, and if we go for that worker immediately in Duck, we'll miss out on the 3rd axe that was tentatively planned. It's good to have options, we should know how the Commodore front is developing by the time we make that choice. For now, things are developing nicely. At EOT, both cities grew and 2 more axes completed. I have 15k more power than the best rival... anyone with their eyes open will take quick notice of that!

[Image: 037.2.JPG]

The Commodore task force is on the staging tile as scheduled. Next turn we move onto the copper tile. Comm's worker, as you can see, isn't going to finish that chop/mine. Commodore could present us with an interesting choice if he runs that worker on a wild goose chase. Here's hoping it runs into the city like any sane civilian would do... *cough*

Timski, I like the names you had from the Mario universe, but it seems that theme is already somewhat occupied. My initial theme here was the more broad 8-bit NES pantheon, so we don't have to trample anyone else' creativity:

[Image: 037.1.JPG]

Sharp eyes may have noticed a new kind of resource in the first picture above. Scouting continues apace, and the waterways continue to gain importance!

Ginger Eagle continues to do well. I'm becoming more and more in favor of a 2-axe push into his land. Hide in the woods and generally piss him off. We now know that chariots are not going to be an option for GE, so 2 axes in the woods will be a good enough raiding force for a long time.

[Image: 037.3.JPG]

Timski, click here to go further down the "aggressive play" rabbit hole:

Demos:

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