[Spoilers] Shallow Old Human Tourist Hit the beach!

[Fintourist]

OH, one more though.

Let’s not be Nakor and just stop playing and gift cities.

And let’s not be GermanJoey and decide who we want to win and try to kingmake.

Even if turns are short and pointless. Let’s try to max our defenses and our theoretical chances. We owe that to other players that are actually putting in a real effort and trying to win this.

[Fintourist]

Double-post but I guess the point is clear.. I’ll post sober next time

[Aurorarcher]

Ok I’m done. Apart from all the crazyness from Toku etc.:

1. We lose coinflip henge (that would give us defense bonus among others)
2. We lose 90 % fight spear vs Toku warrior
3. 90 % defensive fight against OT4E
4. 80 % defensive fight against OT4E

And these are not cherry-picked bad results. These are the only results that have taken place, one after another.

Can somebody calculate the odds for that?

If I did the math correct all that happening in a row leads to 0,1 % chance to happen...

[Old Harry]

Turn 61 pt 2

We have two immortals now, with another one chopped that will appear next turn and two more that will be whipped to appear the turn after. Tokugawa is more vulnerable to them so they'll head over that way while the selected axe will go towards BG. We'll have BG linked up again next turn, but that'll be too late to use the chop into its walls so that becomes an archer instead.


I've said in chat and I should probably have mentioned here as well that I think Toku isn't just role-playing Toku, I think this is a viable strategy for an AGG civ on a tight map like this when faced by a good team like ours. He knows OT4E loves a bit of war, and Toku's persistent aggression finally provoked the dogpile which is probably the only thing that will let them both beat us long-term. Obviously the terrible RNG means that they can now probably beat us in the short-term too, but hey - fuck that algorithm!

I expect Toku's axes to stay still next turn and pillage the road, then all 4 shuffle onto the sheep tile on turn t63. If that's the case we can hit with 3 immortals (at 77%) on t63 and our axe and warrior in Col *should* hold out.

If he moves the first two onto the sheep next turn then we can only hit with one immortal (at 77%), but it'll get the chance to promo-heal and attack again the next turn. Assuming the RNG isn't the shitty cheating cheaty cheat we all know it is of course.

Demos and power.

[shallow_thought]

I hope to get a fuller write-up for Fall From Heaven up over the weekend, but I thought it would be apposite for the moment to focus on just one of the civilizations that appear in that game.

The Sheaim.

Their philosophy can be summed up simply as:

1) The world is a place of never-ending suffering and misery.
2) It should therefore be destroyed.
3) In order to demonstrate this truth and and convert others to the cause, suffering and misery should be spread as widely and thoroughly as possible.

By coincidence, this is pretty much the mindset of the team right now (although we will be endeavouring to keep the pain and suffering within acceptable RB guidelines, at least while FT is sober ).

The Sheaim have the ability to summon hell creatures from other worlds to aid them in their work of bringing on the Apocolypse; also, their axemen are zombies that explode when they die. Sadly, we will have to to without .

Nonetheless, I welcome all lurkers to join in a chorus of the Sheaim unofficial anthem (set to the tune of the song from the Lego movie):

Everything is awful,
Everything sucks so you might as well die.
Everything is awful,
Come on and fry!

[Dark Savant]

If I did the math correct all that happening in a row leads to 0,1 % chance to happen...

Maybe it's just me, but I play games so much that 0.1% rolls going against you are expected, sooner or later.

At least Civ 4 is honest about its RNG ... which is why people often believe it lies.  Other games actually do lie (this includes Civ 1/2, but not 3+), specifically to avoid people complaining that they lie.    Which works, of course.    

Anyway.  Please don't give up, guys.  The lurkers want you to fight on!

[scooter]

My condolences on the hand you've drawn combined with the luck. That sucks. Hope you guys will find a way to keep motivation. I've honestly seen you guys do far more impressive things than dig out of this hole, so I'm looking forward to seeing how you manage. Hope your luck turns around.

[Mardoc]

Assuming the RNG isn't the shitty cheating cheaty cheat we all know it is of course.

I mean, you kinda have to act as though the odds actually mean something. It's either that or nihilism...

[Fintourist]

Thank you guys, your comments have been well appreciated. World of course feels a lot brighter with clear head and after 24 hours, but the disappointment and frustration is still there. No way around it I guess.

That being said, I don't think that you need to worry that we would drop the ball here. In past games I've been quite direct with my criticism towards players who have become unsporting after their winning chances have evaporated. So it's better to avoid hypocrisy and try to keep performing. Of course easy for me to say as OH is putting in the biggest turn-playing effort.. 

[Old Harry]

Turn 62

OT4E moved his units back to the safety of the forest. If he moves up next turn (a little unlikely as his City Raider axes will be at 4.8 and 4.3 health) then his 9XP CR2 axe gets 60%. If he waits another turn it'll be 50%. I hope our power spike this turn makes him think twice about advancing... On t65 we can whip walls here.


I was surprised that Toku moved one unit to the hill here, but it kinda makes sense. He pillaged the road this turn and can pillage our sheep next turn. If he moves his stack up next turn then our workers can road to let our axes in Dragon Age hit this spear. Meanwhile our four immortals should get ~70% odds in their battles against his axes next turn.


We've left Col unhappy this turn because the road to BG isn't yet in place. Leaving that incomplete allows the workers in Col to reconnect DA next turn.


Demos and power. I like this spike.