[SPOILERS] Cornflakes brings the popcorn (because creativity is overrated)

[Cornflakes]

Merchant Republic was adopted this turn. My Science and Gold have exploded over the past few turns, and over the next few turns my culture should shoot up by 15-20. Here are my current policy cards, with end-of-turn yields shown in the upper-right corner:

   

Serfdom is in for a turn since I have a builder completing. Next turn I'll swap that out for Professional Army since I will have enough gold to upgrade a Heavy Chariot > Knight. The barb camp on the island to the east is erupting so this looks like a good opportunity to guarantee the Military Science eureka by killing a unit with a knight. The extra maintenance will hurt a bit but I think it's worth it. At my current tech pace I'm projecting that I can reach Military Science right about the 30 turn mark (within 5 turns of the DoF with Russia ending). I don't want to take any chances with the eureka so I might as well take advantage of the opportunity while it remains. It will take me about 8 turns to get into position and I hope Hattusa doesn't eliminate the threat first. They have a warrior headed that way now which can start assaulting the camp in 2 turns. This is a case where I hope the camp spawns another unit so that it can survive long enough for me to get the kill.

I'll have another civics swap 3 turns later which I'll use to take Professional Army out and replace with Meritocracy which will be good for 14/turn immediately! I'll have the Theater at Chess completing 2-3 turns later bringing in +5 additional between adjacency, CS bonus, and policy card. I have 2 more traders completing over the next 3 turns. All routes will be assigned international so I'm planning to slot Trade Confederation, gaining +4 in exchange for -2. Add in +10% from amenities and I'll be well over 80/turn within 5 turns Science will remain around 85

My next push for expansion is pushing out horizontally with 3 settlers completing over the next 7 turns. District-wise I have 14 currently completed, need 17 to unlock the discount on the 3rd copy of each type. I have the Theater completing at Chess in 5 turns. I have a Holy Site planted at Valletta (8 turns) and a Carnival at Dominion (9-ish turns). This will allow me to lock in discounted districts immediately at all 3 of the new cities that I found. Here's my plan for those discounted district:

• Campus: I have a +5 adjacency site at Sushi Go that will get priority for the 3rd campus. It will hit size 7 right about 10 turns from now. I may sacrifice some production tile to work farms in order to sync growth up with when the discount formula will apply
  
• Industrial Zone: Dominion needs an IZ, but maybe not the 3rd. I might go with a harbor first since I still have that forest .
  
• Commercial Hub: New city
  
• Holy Site: ??? probably won't plant one
  
• Harbor: New City
  
• Theater: Keep my eye out for a location at a new city. Alternatively, Cribbage has a +2 adjacency site withing borders already that would work except that growth pace is abysmal there and it will be a very long time (20-30 turns maybe) before it hits size 7.
  
• Carnival: I already have 3 so does not qualify for 40% discount formula. I'll pant a carnival immediately at any new city that has a flatland tile available and no immediate prospects for a better district.
  
• Encampment: I already have 3 so does not qualify for 40% discount formula. No plans to plant any more encampment. I built the 3rd one with the Veterancy policy card granting 30% production bonus and will probably do the same whenever I decide I need another Encampment.
  

On the exploration front I located Rome, but did not make contact this turn:

   

I'll wait at least a couple more turns before making contact while weighing the pros/cons. At this point I think that I'll slip away silently and not return for a good long while. I'm headed north/northwest with this Caravel in search of the remaining CS, while the other caravel rounds the Cape of Hattusa into the antarctic sea below that island.

[Cornflakes]

Got 2 turns in 2 hours this morning

Met the last CS. It is another Scientific: Soul. Mediocre suzerainty bonus, but iceball location so not worth capture. With 3 scientific CS I think it will be worth it to put down some full price campuses.

It hit me this morning as well that Rome is Suzerain of Stockholm. I deduced early on that there was a scientific CS on the other continent. Rome’s Great Person point totals have been confusing me. All their points on the GPP screen are multiples of 2 so that would fit. I bet they liberated it from Aztec capture.

[Cornflakes]

T100 Civ Comparison

Civ	Cities	Pop	Techs	Civics	Gold	Faith/turn	Districts	Military
Brazil	7	45	23 (+78.1/turn)	18 (+73.1/turn)	66 (+64.8/turn)	3.3	14: (2) Campus, (2) CH, (2) IZ, (3) Encampment, (2) Carnival, (1) Theater, (2) Harbor	658
Russia	12	38	19 (+54.1/turn)	14 (+37.4/turn)	194 (+26/turn)	36.8	10: (4) Lavra (5) campus, (1) CH	554
Rome	10	36	19 (+55/turn)	16 (+35/turn)	0 (+0/turn)	0	6: (1) HS, (2) Encampment, (2) CH, (1) Campus	X < Russia
Greece	3	12	14 (+20/turn)	11 (+20/turn)	0 (+0/turn)	0	3: (1) Encampment, (2) Campus, (1) Acropolis	X < Brazil

Biggest improvement for me: Culture increased by 26%, gold production increased 5x. Internationally, biggest improvement was Rome's culture, increased by 20%.

   

Here is the capital, up to size 10 with 40/turn. This is trader #7 completing now, next up is the Theater (3 turns) then finish workshop (4 turns) then University (6 turns). This will take me to about 8 turns before the DoF ends. At that point I may need to get out another group of horsemen. I can get 4 out every 3 turns which means I could build about 10 in that time. I'm hoping this won't be necessary but I need to stay alert.

You can see Sushi Go and Pinochle have a few turns left on their settlers. Free Cell's lighthouse completes just in time to raise the housing to it can grow up to size 5. Once it hits 5 I'll steal the banana from Pinochle and the farm 3W to get it to 6. I don't have any other district I want here and size 6 will be enough to work all of the land tiles so Free Cell will probably stagnate at size 6 with around 20-22/turn.

I can use about a full builder at my current cities, plus a builder at each of the 3 new cities. One just finished at Valletta. Sushi Go and Pinochle will both slot in builders after their settlers complete. Free Cells will probably slot a builder as well after the lighthouse. Sushi Go will then build a discounted Campus starting in about 10 turns after it regrows to size 7. I'll also need to slot in Surveyor policy and purchase a few tiles since my growth has filled up all workable tiles at all of my cities now.

   

I need to figure out how to improve the food output of Cribbage. There are 3 more hills in the 3rd ring that I would like to be working. Best I can think of is a farm triangle to the northwest of the city. In the near-term, Cribbage's build queue is dedicated to a University. It will barely be able to complete in time to trigger the Printing Press eureka.

   

Valletta will finish the Holy Site just in time to start the Armory for the Gunpowder eureka. Afterwards I'll have enough time to build a crossbow before the DoF ends. Alternatively I could build the Aqueduct, but I'd like to get out another couple of crossbows before I unlock Field Guns.

   

Dominion is building the Carnival now. When the carnival completes it will trigger the discount formula for 3rd districts of the same type. The plan then in to purchase the hill tile 1NW of the carnival, and then the coast tile 1NE of that for a Harbor. Dominion is growing faster the cultural tile expansion so the extra hill purchase will be used almost immediately. I'd like to purchase the Horse tile as well since a pasture would combine with the 3rd rice farm to raise the housing again. That is a lot of gold though and I don't think that I will be able to splurge on that until after the next DoF extension with TheArchduke is secured. I'm looking at accumulating a stockpile of over 1500 by that time. I re-based 2 traders here so that when I slot Trade Confederation the +1 from each route can help expand borders faster.

[Grotsnot]

Stupid question: where do you get the &/turn of the Civs you haven't met yet? As far as I can tell, the World Rankings don't show details for unmet Civs so I've been trying to figure it out based on pop, districts, and number of techs&civics already researched but that only gets me so far.

[Cornflakes]

Stupid question: where do you get the &/turn of the Civs you haven't met yet? As far as I can tell, the World Rankings don't show details for unmet Civs so I've been trying to figure it out based on pop, districts, and number of techs&civics already researched but that only gets me so far.

I do it the exact same way that you do, make the best guess based off the number of techs/civics researched, pop, and districts. Any agreement with my numbers and reality is partly coincidence, partly skill at educated guessing  Rome has kept expansion pretty much at the same pace as Russia with both conquering a neighbor around the same time, so I've been estimating Rho's yields somewhat based off TheArchduke's known values. For culture I know Rho gets a free monument for 2/city, plus 0.3/pop. You'll notice a jump in my estimate of Rho's science in the T100 civ comparison because I'm pretty sure that they have Stockholm city state. I may have over compensated there since Russia has more campus/libraries and I have them down now for about the same science per turn.

[Cornflakes]

Turns have been flying lately, 3/day over the weekend and 2/day about half of the weekdays  Bringing us to T105 already:

T105 Civ Comparison

Civ	Cities	Pop	Techs	Civics	Gold	Faith/turn	Districts	Military
Brazil	7	46	25 (+93.9/turn)	20 (+84.5/turn)	84 (+93.9/turn)	4.4	15: (2) Campus, (2) CH, (2) IZ, (3) Encampment, (2) Carnival, (2) Theater, (2) Harbor	656
Russia	12	42	20 (+57.1/turn)	15 (+37.1/turn)	339 (+28/turn)	41.6	10: (4) Lavra (5) campus, (1) CH	598
Rome	14	49	21 (+60/turn)	17 (+50/turn)	0 (+0/turn)	0	6: (1) HS, (2) Encampment, (2) CH, (1) Campus	X < Russia
Greece	5	21	14 (+20/turn)	11 (+20/turn)	0 (+0/turn)	0	3: (1) Encampment, (1) Campus, (1) Acropolis	X < Brazil

Biggest improvement for me over the last 5 turns: Gold production increased 50%, Science also increased 20%. Notice the population growth has stalled out. This is partly due to 3 pop leaving as settlers to colonize islands, and partly because I'm approaching or at the housing cap throughout my core. I'm considering adopting Medina Quarter for the +2 housing at cities with at least 3 districts. The problem at that point would be finding tiles to work. Most of the production tiles are already being worked. Flatland farms have value while growing, but once grown to the housing cap what is the purpose of farms? If the current population can work all the available mines/lumbermills, why continue growing when the additional pop will only produce food? Might as well just assign the pop to the production tiles now and grow at a snails pace. One benefit of growing could be Conservation allowing me to removed all those farms eventually and plant forests in their place, but that is at least 50 turns from now if I beeline there.

Greatest improvement internationally appears to be Rome's growth! The best way I can make sense of his empire score is the above, up to 14 cities now and nearly 50 pop! Wait, I might be underestimating his pop now ... I just remembered that he has cheap Baths. I could easily see 1 or 2 cities fewer and 5 or 10 pop more. Working off the assumption of Stockholm city state boosting the GPP production, Rome seems very under-distracted compared to Russia and Brazil. On the other hand, Russia's districts are mostly cheap Lavras or captured Campuses so maybe not too under-built.

I see a University under construction at one of the Russian Campuses. Russia obviously has Education, but not enough Faith to purchase them fast enough. At their current faith/turn it takes 12 turns per university. Russia needs 2 quick in order to trigger the Printing eureka. I wonder if TheArchduke is regretting a couple of the Library faith purchases now? The last library purchase I noticed was at least a half dozen turns ago so he should be getting close to the 500 needed to purchase one university. But 12 turns for the 2nd is too long to wait for Printing.

Here's where we have progressed to since the last update 5 turns ago:

   

I dropped the Naval Tradition envoy into Soul for +2 at each of my 2 campuses. Suzerain bonus is random Eureka when entering a new era. This has the potential to save production towards achieving a eureka, but given it's randomness and 1-shot-per-era nature it's a mediocre benefit. We'll see what happens but I'm not holding my breath or planning around it. 

I have a settler on the way to plant RED DOT. I chose the location with 3 resources 1st ring. I'm planting on the plains hill which is better short term and slightly worse long-term since Mines will eventually keep improving production output as I advance through the tech tree. But short term trumps long-term. Also this location picks up another crabs 3rd ring to the southeast which could come in handy late game if I need to harvest for gold.

The next policy swaps at Humanism in 4 turns are pinned there as a reminder. Limes I'll use for a walls-boosted-chop at Dominion which will build all of the Industrial Zone and a third of the Harbor. I'l go ahead and put up walls at minimum in the capital, possibly all of the remaining core cities. I'm concerned about a Cossack invasion and want to put up as many psychological factors onto the table as possible to assure an extension of the Declaration of Friendship which will get me to Steel. Serfdom will be used on at least 4 builders, well worth a policy slot for a few turns. Veterancy will aid the Armory construction. I'm also planning to build 2 more [Barracks OR Stables] in the other encampments. Then with a single Encampment Training project I will be able to recruit a GGeneral at the same time I unlock Cavalry (<5 turns after DoF ends). That will be another psychological factor on the table with Russia.

   

I have no idea how there is a redlined barb spearman running around in the south of the Hattusa/Preslav island. But that spearman will be the knight kill that I need for the eureka. The Quadrireme and Caravel are both headed to Russia's western coast. The Quad will be upgraded to a Frigate inside one of the city states' borders, and eventually upgraded to an MG. Russia has 2 coastal cities which I'll be able to apply pressure to for another bargaining chip as the DoF winds down ... actually after going back and counting the tiles I'll be 1 tile closer upgrading from Hattusa's culture. That being the case, I'm going to stage my Quad on the tile 1NW of Hattusa's crab, since after the border pop there Russia could meet them across the water. I'll be on that tile next turn and can prevent the Russian galley from entering that tile.

This island has 3 cities penciled in as ORANGE, YELLOW, and PURPLE dots. Two settlers are en route for YELLOW and ORANGE, both 6 turns out. Locations may shift by a tile or so but should remain approximately as shown. I'm sure I could squeeze a 3rd or 4th city in, but at the rate settler costs increase I'd rather spread the cities out. I'm running out of tiles to work in my core so I'll be able to work nearly all the production tiles eventually with these 3 cities. Unfortunately the jungle hill banana in the far north is orphaned in this layout but I don't see a better way to arrange things and pick that up.

I have 1 existing builder which will have 4 charges remaining to improve the two new island cities, after stopping to build another lumber-mill at Free Cell. 3 more builders are pictured in build queues above and will complete once Serfdom is slotted. One builder will remain in the core, one will head to Soul's island, and the other will support ORANGE & YELLOW.

   

BREAKING NEWS: TheArchduke skipped the healing Great Scientists, apparently targeting one of the better Renaissance scientists. If I understand the skipping mechanics correctly, TheArchduke loses 20% of his accumulated GScientist points which are then applied as a discount to make that scientist cheaper to recruit. Apparently the skip option is only available to the first person who reaches the threshold because Abu Al-Qasim Al-Zahrawi was automatically recruited by me this turn. I've pasted his effects in the top of the screenshot above as a reminder. This is another point of leverage that I can use against Russia. Actually I'm starting to wonder if the leverage isn't tipping the scales in favor of a quick assault on Russia once the DoF ends and before they can unlock Cossacks. That would be a bloody war though and I doubt I'd be able to nail the coffin closed before Cossacks were reached. DotF Cossacks fighting a defensive war in Russian territory will be an absolute nightmare. No, I don't think that offense will be the answer but I will keep an open mind an evaluate at the clock winds down towards DoF expiration.

Another option is to use Abu Al---- for the 1 eureka. I think that I can time the eureka when Siege Tactics is the only option remaining. That would save me 2 Catapult builds (120/each) and two Bombard upgrades (about 240/each). That's huge given my tight build queues at present, and the gold could be used on Cavalry upgrades instead. Looking at a defensive war, Cavalry will be of more benefit than Bombards. Even on offense I don't think Bombards will come into play. I need to be lightning fast at hitting the cities in order to take out DotF. Siege Towers will be the ticket to bypass walls rather than bombarding them down.

[Cornflakes]

Ok, the breaking news above may be a little dramatic. Actually I think it signals that TheArchduke is playing for a longer game. The +20 healing per turn would have paired nicely with his Cossacks to ensure that he could keep the offensive moving forward. Ultimately though I think that a Cossack attack on Brazil will end up with Russia in an un-winnable position. Here's why: Minas Geraes. By the time our DoF ends I'll be within striking distance of unlocking MG and will have Frigates unlocked. I already have 3 settlers headed for offshore locations. In order to bring any captured city out of resistance, Russia would have to prosecute an overseas invasion of my islands. By the time Russia unlocks ocean travel I will be fielding a half dozen MG, each of which should be able to 1-shot kill any embarked unit. That will be a disaster for Russia and will throw the game to Rome. It's a 2-turn sail, plus a turn to disembark, so I'd be able to sink anything that tried to cross over to the islands. Russia would add 7 nice cities to their empire that would essentially be dead weights except for the eurekas that the districts would unlock. So far I've been unable to build up the navy that I was anticipating. But if Russia declares I'll be defending my ports as my last stand, and chopping out Frigates left and right. Those lumber-mills will be removed and each will become a Frigate.

From the Brazilian perspective, Russia is un-assailable if they can get within striking distance of Cossacks by the end of the DoF. They will have +5 [Cossacks inherent strength bonus] + 5 [defending in Russion territory] + 10 [DotF]. Add to this the ability to rotate attackers on a single tile and then run away and it will be a disaster for Brazil. This is Mutually Assured Destruction at work, hopefully TheArchduke will recognize that and not attempt any funny business due to the temptation to make use of their UU.

[Cornflakes]

Greatest improvement internationally appears to be Rome's growth! The best way I can make sense of his empire score is the above, up to 14 cities now and nearly 50 pop! Wait, I might be underestimating his pop now ... I just remembered that he has cheap Baths. I could easily see 1 or 2 cities fewer and 5 or 10 pop more.

 do Aqueducts/Baths count for empire score like other districts? It didn't even occur to me yesterday, but if they do then that would make sense of the massive empire score increase at 6 points/bath. But with no way to know exactly how many Baths they build I'm just shooting in the dark.

I read up some on the Science Victory and it seems that the key takeaway is the importance of Great People, specifically 2 GEngineers and 2 GScientists. Brazil has an advantage here because the 20% refund makes back-to-back patronizing of great people that much cheaper. Another takeaway is that the primary districts of importance are Campus (obviously for science) and Commercial Hubs (gold for patronizing, as well as increasing trade route capacity). A larger number of lower-pop cities seemed to be the more efficient way to get this accomplished. I was reminded of the importance of chopping to speed the growth curve. I was ignoring the chop in my previous post showing dotmap of the two islands I'm colonizing now. I've shifted things around a bit ...

   

I only have a single builder charge immediately available for the norther island. By locating the city at LAVENDER as shown I get 3 adjacent forests. The since I'll have Limes slotted and the base chop value is 90 it's a net positive to chop walls even if I'm chopping from 0. As-is I'll get maybe 3 turns of +100% boosted production first before chopping. First forest will be chopped into Walls >Builder. New builder will then chop/mine the hills for Monument > Commercial Hub. Monument will let borders start growing, CH will be discounted and therefore cheap enough to complete with monument overflow + the last chop. The builder will have 2 charges remaining which can mine the Jade and farm the Wheat as those tiles claimed. After the CH the city will start another builder (can't have too many of those ) until reaching size 4 to plant the Campus.

Eventually I'll get a settler up here for GREEN with 4 first-ring forests and 3 more second-ring. 4 forests should net me Monument > Campus > CH. The difficulty here will be growing to size 4 but I can maybe buy a tile in order work the other wheat. I could even just harvest the city-adjacent wheat and plant the CH there for another adjacency. It's not like this city is going to amount to much more anyway by the end of the game. The lump shot of food for immediate growth will be better. 

   

On the eastern island I've shifted ORANGE slightly such that it preserves another forest. Builder will also be chopped out here first thing so that I'll have 9 charges to use between these two new cities. ORANGE will have slightly less long-term potential, but I won't have to do anything special to raise the housing here. Losing the gems tile to 3rd ring hurts but I'm getting that luxury from a city state already so it's really just the tile yields I'm losing. YELLOW was shifted onto the Jade since that is a relatively poor tile to work and blocks district placement. This way I have 2 bare tiles 1st ring that can be used for districts. I'm penciling in YELLOW as a backup Spaceport location where I can possibly limp to victory on GScientist/Engineer charges if Russia tries a last-ditch land invasion as I near the end of the tech tree. I will therefore be cultivating it carefully and dedicating special builder labor here. The flat marshlands to the northwest will turn into a large farmland in the short term for growth, and later be replaced with planted trees and river-adjacent lumber-mills. I'm 2nd guessing the campus designation as an Industrial Zone there would be 4 adjacency and it's factory cover all cities I plant on this island. The CH I'm also 2nd guessing as a potentially necessary Aqueduct. Due to the strategic nature of this city as backup Spaceport I think it makes sense to make those adjustments. (Main spaceport if you were wondering is Dominion with the Ruhr Valley.)

Due to the naval dominance of the Brazilian UU, I think that with proper preparation I would be able to hold out on this island for 20 turns. MG (70 melee / 80 ranged) is an industrial naval unit and thus production-boosted by Press Gangs. That policy is unlocked already AND does not become obsolete until Cold War in the Atomic Era so I have plenty of time yet. The Battleship that everyone else can build doesn't get a production-boosting policy until Cold War!!! Yes, I gave that 2 exclamation points. Basically that means my ships will be stronger and half price compared to everyone else. The only naval ranged unit stronger than the MG is the Information Era Missile Cruiser (70 melee / 85 ranged) which is barely an improvement in strength for +50% of the cost! Therefore I have a solid shot at surviving to launch a spaceship even if my my main spaceport and core are captured, as long as I get sufficiently far down the tech/civics trees before triggering the all-in last-ditch attack.

[Cornflakes]

Rome met me last turn when they met and took over suzerain of Amsterdam, so I moved in with my scout and met Greece this turn. Somehow Rome already got contact with Russia as well and have already declared friendship. Rome refused a spare luxury trade with me, so not exactly starting off on a friendly note. I offered DoF to both Rome and Greece.

Rome has an impressive treasury with 1100 and making 108/turn! I'm down to 81/turn after losing suzerain of Amsterdam (cost me about 10/turn). Rome is 3 turns from recruiting a GGeneral and I suspect that will trigger mass knight upgrades conquering Greece. If Rome accepts my DoF I'll offer alliance trying to get the boost. If Rome rejects my DoF (likely?) and Greece accepts then I have an opportunity to potentially earn the Nationalism inspiration for Casus Belli when Rome captures a Greek city. If Rome refuses DoF I'll denounce immediately. Maybe tensions between us will be another factor pushing TheArchduke to remain at peace.

Speaking of peace and Russia, I ran the numbers and it looks to me like Russia might just be able to scrape out Military Science to unlock Cossacks on the turn the DoF ends or 1-2 turns later. I'm on the same timeframe but with Gunpowder and Metal Casting in hand. Both of us will have enough gold for about 4 upgrades but unfortunately Russia does have 4 copper/crabs which are each good for another upgrade. I on the other hand have no seafood at all on my coast and no copper in my hills I could have potentially gold for 2 more if I skip buying the builder at Dominion next turn, but I think the advantages of a builder outweigh the negatives. If TAD attacks it's a lose-lose situation. 8 Cossacks isn't going to cut it to conquer all of Brazil. I can fight a delaying war, pick off one at a time, and especially focus on targeting rams/siege towers. Worst case I don't get any of the remaining boosts towards Nationalism I can still reach it about 5 turns after the DoF ends. Surely I can delay 5 turns, chop out at least 5 Frigates, and survive on the islands for a very long time. Actually I don't even need MG initially since Russia can't even embark on the Ocean yet, I can stick to Frigates to save maintenance. Gold would become very tight but at that point surely Rome would be happy to fund my rogue state. Either way I'll have fun but personally I'd prefer a space race rather than be invaded by Cossacks and throw the game to Rome.

I did get the knight kill eureka this turn but I'm scrambling to make a musket kill in time. The musket kill is essential to guarantee me the boost for Siege Tactics as the only remaining option for the GScientist retirement eureka. There are 2 redlined barb units running around on the island. I'm hoping that I can lure them closer with my GMerchant who will magically teleport to the island next turn when I found the new city there.

[Cornflakes]

I think I've been going about this deterrence-planning a bit wrong. I've been trying to aim towards Military Science and unlocking Cavalry myself as the primary research target, knowing full well that Cavalry are not competitive vs. Cossacks. On land I'm simply outclassed until Tanks and there's no getting around that. There's just no land military counter to the Cossack. The real deterrence factor is my offshore colonies, which mean Russia can't get any captured cities out of resistance for a very very long time (if ever). A strong navy is essential to make that effective. Military Science is still on the Steel beeline and the tech path thus far has been required in order to unlock Muskets for the Square Rigging eureka, but I really need to hit Square Rigging ASAP and crank out Frigates from all ports. I probably should have just hit Sqare Rigging straight-up without the Eureka after Cartography. As-is I'll only save maybe 2-3 turns by hard researching as opposed to waiting for the eureka.