WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

Well, if wolves really wanted to win, then they would have won already at day 6 when Meiz or Jabbz was wolf.
Honestly the thought of Meiz being wolf and trolling us did cross my mind a little bit but then I did kinda expect Meiz doing no nightkilling Kaiser to prolong our suffering with extra day.
And if either Meiz or Jabbz did that upon purpose, then I would be really irritated, because playing WW takes my time which I could spend elsewhere.

If one would think I was going for an entertainment play as a wolf as GES suggested, then bussing Gaspar had for the day and then switching over to make a wolf win would be entertaining enough. I'm always playing for my teams win and would never prolong the game on purpose for trolling or fancy plays etc.

And my vote goes for GES

[Meiz]

Reason why I didn't believe GES/Gaspar combination wasn't possible is because I thought that tracker was typical town role. But Meiz said now that it is possible after all, so I have to reconsider it now.

Tracker is more traditionally town role, but would be very useful in the hands of wolves as well. They would use the role to track down town power roles, and additionally might get information of some player has used a role against one of their own and then play accordign to that info.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Scum Alhambram... I have no idea what scum alhambram is thinking, other than the fact that he completely missed his chance to hop on kaiser when there were 4 of us, and end the game for scum.
Scum GES however, took a smart option of popping the third vote on kaiser early, and when I moved last minute, left him with no options. 

My logics always subject to being shit, but in this instance however, I only see two possibilities. GES is scum, or Meiz is a serial killer with abilities that include modmessenger. I know who I'll be lookin at tomorrow if GES isn't scum, but I'm pretty confident Omar will turn over red.

There would be no traditional logic to a Skelly/Doc play.  They were not playing a traditional game if they are both villains.

As for Simp, he could have jumped and made it 4-2.  You don't think that would have looked super shady?  If he makes that move, it means you would have to believe that Simp felt a Robot/Skelly combo was the most likely villain combo.  Nothing in his history would credibly suggest that at all.  So that would have been a huge red flag.

Omar stopped his run and checked the thread to see if Simp had moved to Robot.  If he had, I would have moved to Doc and told you to do the same.  Not exactly like Omar could say that before in the thread without giving it away.  Omar had not seen Q-Anon's vote switch when posted since it was a cross-post.

If one would think I was going for an entertainment play as a wolf as GES suggested, then bussing Gaspar had for the day and then switching over to make a wolf win would be entertaining enough. I'm always playing for my teams win and would never prolong the game on purpose for trolling or fancy plays etc.

And my vote goes for GES

Is it actually that easy to time your vote?  Omar tried to post his N3 post at 8:59 and it showed up as 9:00 a.m. on the forum.  If you did that with your vote, and it's too late, you get lynched on D7 for sure.  If you post it too early, are you sure Simp and I don't quickly change our votes?  Omar has not followed a lot of these games, but late vote shenanigans do seem risky, now that Omar spent more time pondering it, especially when you're as confident in your village-cred and ability to lead voters as Skelly.  Not late switching was actually the more conservative play.

Reason why I didn't believe GES/Gaspar combination wasn't possible is because I thought that tracker was typical town role. But Meiz said now that it is possible after all, so I have to reconsider it now.

Tracker is more traditionally town role, but would be very useful in the hands of wolves as well. They would use the role to track down town power roles, and additionally might get information of some player has used a role against one of their own and then play accordign to that info.

Except that just does not fit this game at all.  Every villager so far has had a traditional village type role.   All three villains had very standard villain roles (roleblocker, role stealer, janitor).  It might not make sense to judge alignment from roles in the absence of other information--but we have 14 roles confirmed at this point and they all follow a relatively standard alignment pattern.  This makes it far more likely that either Skelly's role was some traditional villain role that was removed by Doc intentionally, or that the last villain is the surviving neighbor pair.


Take whether you believe Skelly would make this play out the equation.  BRick says "guys."  Minimum of two people.  Who else besides you Jabbz could have made that late move?  If you believe I am a villain, I was tracking Bee-Boy.  If Doc was using his role steal ability, that would leave Jerry! to kill novice.  Why would there have been a late change by any of those?  Of the remaining people, you have two neighbors, Robot who already said who he was targeting, Bee-Boy who already said who he was targeting, CIA who did not have a night ability, and Old Tea Man who had already called his shot.  Do you believe a combo of Doc, Jerry!, and Omar saw Robot's post and thought, "Oh boy, here's our chance to hard clear Skelly, let's change our ability onto him!"  The only thing late move that makes sense would be intentionally trying to clear Skelly through the use of the role steal ability after seeing Robot's post. We already know BRick accepted your role usage PM after 9:00a.m. and did not post DEADLINE until eight minutes late.

Look at the voting from the villain lynches thus far.  Skelly is the first vote on Flip.  Skelly is the first vote on Jerry!.  Skelly is the first vote on Doc.  You do not find that even a little bit odd, Q-Anon?  Villagers do not know who the villains are in this game.  But the villains do.  

See, I think Skelly may have told on himself a little bit in D6.

Yes, I've read Gaspar's posts. He keeps saying that the role claim is fishy but never geos as far to explain why. Even yourself are getting a pause, but keep on trucking along regardless.
From my experience the scumtells coming from scum are more static than town players who have to genuinely think and adjust as the game progresses.

Has there been a player with more static reads this game than Skelly?  He was the first person to vote each of the three villains.  He had the same read on Bee-Boy for five days until Bee-Boy got night-killed, to the point that a villager Bee-Boy basically wanted to quit playing.  Look at villager Talking Dog trying his little tail off with dissertation after dissertation on why he was not a villain and it all just slamming into the wall of Skelly's intransigence.  Why?  Skelly already knew the answers.



Omar is tired.  He has a game full of evidence that Skelly's vote will not move during a day once he makes up his mind.  Only once end of day/night revealed evidence forces him to move on to a new target is he willing to do so.  So Omar could just give up.  All this is probably a waste of time.  But Omar is still here and still digging because we are going to lose tomorrow if the vote stays on me.  Maybe it is not Skelly.  Maybe you do not buy what Omar is selling.  Omar not sure he buys it either, but if the last villain is not Omar, it has to be somebody.



If it is not Skelly, then what exactly do you think Simp was doing yesterday?  He took forever to vote Doc and then moved his vote off him to me and then Q-Anon.  Not only was this shady, it was a very bad play for a villager to make strategically.

As Omar already pointed out ad nauseam on D6, it does not make any sense for him to be a villain team with Doc.  All a villain-Doc and villain-Omar would have had to do was just not engage at all on D4 and Jerry! survives and we would have had three straight days of lylo.  And on D5, it means a villain-Omar basically left Doc up to a 50/50 coin flip to die based on whoever Q-Anon decided to vote.  This is why I was sure you were not a villain Q-Anon--the play is too dumb to make.

Does Omar strike you as dumb?

Where as Simp, he was already on Skelly, so as long as he stayed there, Doc could go after some village-cred by voting Jerry! and Jerry! was unlikely to be lynched.   And on D5, Simp was there lined up to make sure Doc did not go down, getting in the tiebreaker onto Talking Dog early enough if it stayed 3-3, despite having Simp as a "very strong town" read previously.



When I made my D6 Doc re-read, I noticed an exchange at posts #1,561, 1,562, and 1564 between Old Tea Man and Doc.  I noticed it mainly because it had to do with Omar.  Old Tea Man reads the Q-Anon and Omar behold/track situation as making it more likely for Q-Anon to be a villain than Omar.  But there is Doc to chime in and disabuse him of this notion immediately.  This would not be a villain-Doc clearly stating his read that Omar is a villain to gain village-cred if Omar gets lynched eventually or voting Omar for similar reasons.  This would mean Doc, for no gain at all, in some minor one-off exchange, tried to convince the villager most people accepted as village that Old Tea Man's belief that Doc's villain-buddy Omar was likely a villager, was inaccurate.  Are?  You?  Serious?

Skelly, you have played a ton of these games with Doc.  Do you really think he makes that post if Omar and Doc are villain teammates?


Omar about 95% that village is going to lose this game.  And he knew that after he made the bad call on Robot.  But Omar be damned if he put this much time in this here game to let us fumble the ball at the goal line.

[Meiz]

If one would think I was going for an entertainment play as a wolf as GES suggested, then bussing Gaspar had for the day and then switching over to make a wolf win would be entertaining enough. I'm always playing for my teams win and would never prolong the game on purpose for trolling or fancy plays etc.

And my vote goes for GES

Is it actually that easy to time your vote?  Omar tried to post his N3 post at 8:59 and it showed up as 9:00 a.m. on the forum.  If you did that with your vote, and it's too late, you get lynched on D7 for sure.  If you post it too early, are you sure Simp and I don't quickly change our votes?  Omar has not followed a lot of these games, but late vote shenanigans do seem risky, now that Omar spent more time pondering it, especially when you're as confident in your village-cred and ability to lead voters as Skelly.  Not late switching was actually the more conservative play.

That scenario was for the idea of me & Gaspar playing for the entertainment value, instead of going for the win yesterday. If I were a wolf, I'm pretty sure I would have had the necessary town-credibility to direct the lynch somewhere else than Gaspar yesterday. But as I am town, I figured out that Kaiser was town as well and recognized who were attempting to get him mislynched for the wolf win.

Take whether you believe Skelly would make this play out the equation.  BRick says "guys."  Minimum of two people.  Who else besides you Jabbz could have made that late move?  If you believe I am a villain, I was tracking Bee-Boy.  If Doc was using his role steal ability, that would leave Jerry! to kill novice.  Why would there have been a late change by any of those?  Of the remaining people, you have two neighbors, Robot who already said who he was targeting, Bee-Boy who already said who he was targeting, CIA who did not have a night ability, and Old Tea Man who had already called his shot.  Do you believe a combo of Doc, Jerry!, and Omar saw Robot's post and thought, "Oh boy, here's our chance to hard clear Skelly, let's change our ability onto him!"  The only thing late move that makes sense would be intentionally trying to clear Skelly through the use of the role steal ability after seeing Robot's post. We already know BRick accepted your role usage PM after 9:00a.m. and did not post DEADLINE until eight minutes late.

I was online at the N3 deadline and so were you. Then right before the night ends we receive posts from several players:
Kaiser: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754886
Rowain: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754887
Meiz: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754888
GES: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754890
Pindicator: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754891

Which prompts Brick to post "Deadline. You guys and your last minute posts."

Trying to turn this as a meta argument of Brick receiving multiple PM's from players and therefore making me suspicious is admirable, but also very far fetched as I'm sure you're already aware of.

Omar is tired.  He has a game full of evidence that Skelly's vote will not move during a day once he makes up his mind.  Only once end of day/night revealed evidence forces him to move on to a new target is he willing to do so.  So Omar could just give up.  All this is probably a waste of time.  But Omar is still here and still digging because we are going to lose tomorrow if the vote stays on me.  Maybe it is not Skelly.  Maybe you do not buy what Omar is selling.  Omar not sure he buys it either, but if the last villain is not Omar, it has to be somebody.

I did vote Kaiser on D4, before realizing that his fake check on me makes no sense for a scum, which allowed me to dig into Bob and get him lynched. So there is actually concrete evidence of me switching my vote during the day!

As Omar already pointed out ad nauseam on D6, it does not make any sense for him to be a villain team with Doc.  All a villain-Doc and villain-Omar would have had to do was just not engage at all on D4 and Jerry! survives and we would have had three straight days of lylo.  And on D5, it means a villain-Omar basically left Doc up to a 50/50 coin flip to die based on whoever Q-Anon decided to vote.  This is why I was sure you were not a villain Q-Anon--the play is too dumb to make.

As we discussed earlier, you had made a statement (not promise) of willing to vote with Rowain, and it happened before Bob had received any attention or votes. I now know for a fact that the day was centered between two town (Kaiser & Me) so no reason for scum to not encage in the thread. Anyways, once I decided to vote for Bob and Rowain followed, you would have been looked in suspicion if you suddendly would not have followed it through. Especially on Bob who had no villager signs on him. Gaspar recognized your promise and decided to quickly jump along, as he knew already that Bob would become a real lynch candidate next to others. We know for a fact that Gaspar bussed Bob. And we know that you had told Rowain to follow him before the votes went against Bob.

When I made my D6 Doc re-read, I noticed an exchange at posts #1,561, 1,562, and 1564 between Old Tea Man and Doc.  I noticed it mainly because it had to do with Omar.  Old Tea Man reads the Q-Anon and Omar behold/track situation as making it more likely for Q-Anon to be a villain than Omar.  But there is Doc to chime in and disabuse him of this notion immediately.  This would not be a villain-Doc clearly stating his read that Omar is a villain to gain village-cred if Omar gets lynched eventually or voting Omar for similar reasons.  This would mean Doc, for no gain at all, in some minor one-off exchange, tried to convince the villager most people accepted as village that Old Tea Man's belief that Doc's villain-buddy Omar was likely a villager, was inaccurate.  Are?  You?  Serious?

Skelly, you have played a ton of these games with Doc.  Do you really think he makes that post if Omar and Doc are villain teammates?

Links to the posts for reference:

https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755287
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755289
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755291

On the first post Rowain states that Gaspar's original statement of "One of the watcher/tracker roles likely scum." does not work. Gaspar corrects him on it, because he needs to explain his logic of that statement. The comments are basically null tell for you, because Gaspar is just explaining his own point he had made. Definitely not a sign of your innocence. Especially when considering how much bussing of each other scum have done in this game  

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I did vote Kaiser on D4, before realizing that his fake check on me makes no sense for a scum, which allowed me to dig into Bob and get him lynched. So there is actually concrete evidence of me switching my vote during the day!

What's that they say about exceptions proving rules and all that.  Besides, you were under real threat for the first time and maybe you needed a shot of that 'ole moloko plus to reinvig your town cred.


But let's assume you're a villager then and Omar just on another of his tinfoil rants.  And let's assume Omar a villain.  Why are you still alive?  It was damn clear to anyone reviewing the thread that you were going to vote for Omar today.  And that whatever you do, people follow like lemmings.  Literally, every person you voted this game with the exception of Bee-Boy was lynched that day and you were the first voter on all of them if Omar recollect correctly.  So given that, and that you assume the following:

Trying to turn this as a meta argument of Brick receiving multiple PM's from players and therefore making me suspicious is admirable, but also very far fetched as I'm sure you're already aware of.

If Omar is a villain and had his choice of night kills, you really think he would come up with this plan to win premeditated, rather than kill you and roll his dice on changing the minds of more impressionable villagers?


On the other hand, you were quite clear that you trusted Simp despite all of the odd plays and moves throughout the game.  

Which villain more likely to keep you alive?  Ponder that one for a second, Skelly, in combination with the way D4/D5 played out.

[Meiz]

I've pondered it, but I like to trust my own read of the game instead of trying to guess what wolves tried to accomplish with their night kill. Might as well be the other option of trying to play "Why Meiz is alive?" - card in the hopes of trying to get town paranoid enough to get a mislynch. Your theories today against me have done very little to lessen that thought.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

   

[Jabbz]

My poor eyes.

[Meiz]

Now that does look concrete evidence

[Jabbz]

Omar could you paraphrase your Simpscum case for me? So far I've only really caught your Scumator one.