[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[Magic Science]

I felt at liberty to extend his bar to where he would be if he were teching at 100%. There are no methodological issues with this at all.

Hopeless, just hopeless. 

Serious question: you already built a galley just for transport across the Cursed Inner Sea, but do you think you will ever build a second one for that as well?
Wait a moment, what about a GALLEON, if this backwards game ever reaches that era? 
A galleon. 

[naufragar]

Serious question: you already built a galley just for transport across the Cursed Inner Sea, but do you think you will ever build a second one for that as well?
Wait a moment, what about a GALLEON, if this backwards game ever reaches that era? 
A galleon. 

The serious answer is that I can't do anything at all that might look provocative to Amicalola. Even if a move isn't intended as threatening or isn't a serious threat, I have to avoid even the appearance. This has been a stressful knife's edge to walk. Looking too weak is provocative. Looking too strong is provocative. Moving troops to one side of my crescent-shaped empire is provocative. Pulling back to my core and under-defending my borders is provocative. I really, really don't want Amica to attack me anytime soon, and I don't really have real deterrence. This stretch of turns has been and will continue to be so scary.

This was turn 168. Remind me to tell you in about 50 turns the galley move I made this turn. No hints. 

[Magic Science]

This was turn 168. Remind me to tell you in about 50 turns the galley move I made this turn. No hints. 

I do not understand the purpose of this request, but...

Roger roger, Turn 218, ask naufragar about his galley movements from the old days.

[naufragar]

Eh. I had a plan to attack Amica that involved moving the galley one square left then back right one square so he wouldn't be able to tell when I loaded up units from Cistercia but that's moot now because:


Amica decided we should drop our masks. I know in my high-school-level statistics mind that Amica is not always lucky against me, but boy does it feel like it. 20% battle against a knight? Why not win it.  Amica offered white peace, and I took it.

I'm actually pretty sad to lose Amica's trade routes. Plenty of my cities only have domestic routes which look like this:



While Amica's look like this:



And I'm pretty sure next turn his circumnav bonus kicks in for another route. So my city gets +3gpt from trade while next turn Amica will be getting +12. Fin/Org does not keep up with each of Amica's cities making +9gpt more than mine even before factoring in his better land. Amica is also researching Engineering. I'm sure this is for defense against my knights, but we can remember that castles give +1 trade route (and Amica has stone). It's looking very likely that Amica's economy is accelerating faster than mine. Sure I have the cumulative beaker lead now, but it will continue to diminish.

Amica also has more Espionage Points per turn coming in, so I'm losing city visibility in places. Very sad.

SD also made peace with Gav, so my ragtag force can't make anymore gains and may even have to retreat.



Overall, not a great turn for old naufragar but another fascinating twist in PB64.

[naufragar]

We interrupt our regularly schedule Cipherian Conglomerate news bulletin to bring you more stories from the mystical land of Commodoria:


Hasn't researched Agriculture yet in the Year of Our Lord 1140. Like I've been saying, absolutely magical game.

Amica offered open borders this turn. This is the second time since he burned my Gav war prize that he's offered. I don't get it.

For the first time in the game, Amica at full burn has a better GNP than me at full burn:


And the tech is Engineering for Amica which 1) unlocks pikes to keep him safe from my knights until his total beaker count passes mine and 2) castles, which give him +1 protective trade route (read:+3gpt in every city, so +54 gold per turn!) and only costs 34 hammers with Pro and Stone.

He's already been building the walls in preparation:


Notice also the harbors and the Persian Unique markets that buff trade route income (of the amazing, safe, fertile intercontinental trade route-granting islands. No I'm not jealous.  ) In the Close to Home mod, trade routes scale with just about everything: circumnav, buildings, techs. My economy is just puny old Fin/Org, which starts working 3c coast and then...does nothing. Fin doesn't even have a Banks discount anymore. I mentioned a while back about how Fin discourages cottaging. You get this quick burst of cash and then nothing. Org too loses its luster once everybody has courthouses. I'm probably saving about 38 gpt (I've got 30c civics expenses. Inflation is at 26%). So once Amica has courthouses everywhere, my Org trait reads +38gpt. Compare that with...well, everything Amica has. We'll have to find a way to work around his amazing advantages.

[naufragar]

Amica got Engineering and proceeded to go on a whipping spree:


Let's say that the stuff he whipped the turn he got Engineering were all pikes (6 of 'em) and what he whipped the next turn were three castles.

And when I say "he got Engineering" what I mean is "he finally opened up his stride and let the rest of the field know just how dominant he is if, as seems likely, they hadn't been following closely"


That's really bad for the good guys! (But we knew this from our earlier MSPaint projections. )

There's not much point to showing the military advisor, since Amica and I are best buddies, but here it is anyway:


I've drawn arrows to show that Amica can defend his entire front from a central point while Cursed Inner Sea means I cannot do the same. There are units of Amica's that I can't see (remember we expect 6 pikes minimum) but what I do see is pretty even. But he's got walls and castles at all the entrances and can defend with his entire army due to the damned geography. Because we're pretty even, whoever gets to hit the other's stack with catapults first wins. I'm not sure there are any tactics that can overcome Amica's terrain advantage. (I should say my terrain disadvantage. Cursed inner sea!  )

[naufragar]

And by "in the air tonight" I mean "in the air of the latter half of the next turn." Get excited. 

[naufragar]

I've been too cagey during this whole build up, and my reporting has probably suffered for it. Next turn, my peace treaty with Amica expires, and I plan to attack.


Amica has an absolutely massive economy and can benefit from known tech bonus on crucial techs like Feudalism and Guilds. He's been trying to hide it, but I've had city visibility and the recent massive spike was a dead giveaway. Last turn he spent 290 commerce in espionage on me so now he also has tech visibility. Basically, there's no metric in which I'm ahead of Amica except in cajones. And the bigger the balls, the bigger the potential for a very painful kick.  But it's time to do the ballsy thing and attack the front runner. As is tradition.

Amica moved his catapult stack to the tile outlined.


This could be in preparation for an attack on my north, but it's an awkward attack if so. He could try to make brute force gains (by moving onto that jungle fort and then trying to hit me with horse archers) but I think I could make him bleed. More likely, he's defending against a rapid knight strike to the north, which admittedly was my first plan. But I think it opens up possibility in the south.



He (currently) doesn't have too many pikes in the south. If I move as indicated, he can't defend New Kemosabe without exposing his cat stack to flank attacks from my cavalry. Of course, once we declare war, a million things could change. Amica could attack into my mounted stack. He could yield Kemosabe. He could try to push North. Who knows. But that's the plan now. We've also whipped 5 knights in the north for some tactical flexibility up there.

We're also looking for strategic flexibility by researching Astro. For the past 20 turns, I've had a worker forting a couple jungle tiles in the north. I've left them 1 turn short of completion. Maybe the plan goes nowhere, but maybe we can pry open a weakness on the seas. (Remember that Amica has essentially 1 front, so it's been very easy for him to defend. I say "essentially" because Superdeath is allergic to taking Amica's literally undefended cities one galley ride away. It would offend his sense of honor or something. And Comm is gunshy after being scared off taking Amica's islands before.) But once the seas are open, maybe there's an opportunity, although the distance is gigantic. Even controlling the seas well enough to blockade Amica's free 1000gpt from intercontinental trade might help swing things.

So it's a duel between the top dog and me again. No idea what happens next, but I feel that it's now or never.

[naufragar]

I'm torn about the song for this report. I was between Outkast's Bombs over Baghdad just for the line "Don't pull that thang out unless you plan to bang." But one line isn't thematic enough, so have some Carly Rae Jepsen, since I didn't just come here to dance, if you know what I mean.


Here's where we are:


I built a sim and ran through a bunch of tests. The Battle-Computron3000 told me that it had no answers. Things were pretty even, so... I didn't just come here to dance, if you know what I mean.


I hope that my general attitude that Amicalola must die, I must kill him, and it would be best if I could have 5 minutes afterward to dance on his grave, doesn't mislead people about my opinions of him: he's great! A fine fellow, good report, and outstanding civ player. I mention this to say that I can't predict what he'll do. I simmed him attacking my southern knight stack with every visible unit that could reach, and we seemed to come out even. I simmed out him attacking my eastern stack with every visible unit that could reach, and we seemed to come out even. But! His horse archers would have to choose whether to go east or south, so he can't attack into both stacks. (I pray.) He has the option of moving his catapults and a bunch of units to the copper tile (or whatever) and trying to survive the collateral attempt. That's too complicated to think about right now; too many variables. Lot of words to say "we wait and see."

By the way, notice how my solo knight isn't covering my two workers? I decided it was better to possible have an extra hitter for the tiles north of the knight stack than to defend the workers. Who knows if that's right.

Amica sensed the attack coming and it looks like he moved to eat my poor work boat.


His galley is named Beauregard, which, if memory serves, was the name of a trireme I sniped with a random chariot while it was on a circumnavigation mission. In its honor, I have named my work boat "Scouting Chariot" so that the debt can be payed.

And Gav looking to vulture:

[naufragar]

Wait! Did you know that the power graph for military points in the German version of Civ4 is called Elektrizität? Sounds like we need some Power Music, Electric Revival...






So I chose both. Sue me.