[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[timski]

Commodore has a second Warrior somewhere. I expected to see it in their city, so it might instead be about to Kamikaze into Goomba. Also note that Kyan probably has an Axe in the wild (although I doubt it is close, since it was likely built T36). Commodore is evidently growing (now with 8 food surplus) while not building much. Perhaps planning a 2-pop whip something, maybe with the option of more Kamikaze Warrior spam? Commodore's GNP has risen sharply without working extra gold, so they switched tech - potentially to something with 2 pre-requisites that nobody else knows, but more likely something with 1 pre-requisite that several neighbours know - Pottery? Could they be back on the Oracle again?

Agreed on Kyan's third city, with their second growing to size 2. That tells us much about Dazed: Imperial not getting the world's earliest third city once again suggests Dazed still hasn't recovered from their Warrior-rush opening. All T37's power and score changes are from population, placing Kyan at 36 power, Dazed at 35, and GingerEagle at 34.

Saw the Wet Rice, Corn, Clams and Marble in the east. This map is not one suited to delaying economic expansion...

Southern City

Down the rabbit hole there are only events unforeseen... Or remind me, when did we start playing Rome?

The new southern city is probably essential to us being able to forestall Kyan, since it is the only location that holds a natural border. Thanks to Commodore, we have most of the roads in place to support such a city, and if Kyan has just settled their third city, we may still be able to get to the site before them. In principle, I'm supportive. It is bold, but not stupid.

My concerns are:

• Can we get enough military units down there fast enough to hold it? That isn't just an immediate problem: Kyan's military production would be closer than our own, so we can no longer play on the basis of reacting to opponents' power spikes - that city would need to be stuffed with Archers as soon as possible.
  
• Can our economy take much more expansion at this pace? Prince difficulty means the southern site (as our 5th city) will drop our tech rate down to around 40%, rather than bankrupting us completely. So we're fine for now, but there will be some difficulty choices ahead, both on tech and settlement.

The second concern is manageable. I'm less sure about the first - can we hold it? Kyan is, by far, our most dangerous opponent. Of course that is muted somewhat by the fact that if we can't hold the border, we ultimately can't hold anything else in the south.

It follows that if we do push south, having fun with GingerEagle becomes secondary. And if they spam Phalanx like they did Warriors, I doubt we'd have much fun anyway. I would prefer GingerEagle's aggression pointed towards Dazed, at least until we have secured our (enlarged) borders.

Right now, moving the second city south certainly makes the Worker micro tricky, since nothing can safely move south until Commodore is defeated.

[Ceiliazul]

Commodore has a second Warrior somewhere. I expected to see it in their city

Yep... but based on past experience with Japan, who knows. Good news is my mountaintop view reveals the copper, so we know my worker will be safe on the forest hill.

Saw the Wet Rice, Corn, Clams and Marble in the east. This map is not one suited to delaying economic expansion...

Right! GLH will help immensely with this.

The new southern city is probably essential to us being able to forestall Kyan, since it is the only location that holds a natural border.
...
In principle, I'm supportive. It is bold, but not stupid.
...
that city would need to be stuffed with Archers as soon as possible.

Yeah, I'm going to play with archery before masonry in my next sim session... Kyan will have to attack that city quickly or risk losing the whole blob.

Can our economy take much more expansion at this pace?

Hell yes. I have no problem bringing break-even science down to 20% for the sake of new cities. That said, if we capture Comm's city and found 2 more, we'll have 5 total cities. At that point we can stop for a couple more workers. We'll have fur and silver connected so Duck can start growing more. By the next expansion phase, Duck should be an increasing in economic power.

It follows that if we do push south, having fun with GingerEagle becomes secondary. And if they spam Phalanx like they did Warriors, I doubt we'd have much fun anyway. I would prefer GingerEagle's aggression pointed towards Dazed, at least until we have secured our (enlarged) borders.

So far we've had NO ONE in our blob, mosty due to ambitious picket lines. The 2 axes heading to GE are defense as much as offense. Far from playing around, our raiders are our best defenders. If GE spams phalanxes like he did warriors, it will slow his growth considerably.

Right now, moving the second city south certainly makes the Worker micro tricky, since nothing can safely move south until Commodore is defeated.

I'm not sold on this move yet. If we use the knox settler for the Kyan choke it will have to stand around during the siege of Bear... this is a sticky wicket.

[Ceiliazul]

A puzzle

Remember Kyan's 3rd city? We now know where it is. Tim, do you see it?



Scouts found nothing interesting this turn. The sheep near the Kyan choke really make that hill city attractive. Double food, and a defensible location? Yes please! However, with the revelation that Kyan has already posted his city in the area, I think we have at least a bit more time. With Commodore so crippled, surely he'll want to lock in his border with Dazed before expanding fully into Commodore's blob. Also, this gives us a couple more turns to get archers in position with that aggressive settler.

Down the rabbit hole there are only events unforeseen... Or remind me, when did we start playing Rome?

Next turn, the big whip. 5 pop points lost, and our score will drop by 30 points!

Demo's and puzzle solution:

[timski]

In the south, it rather looked like the river flows into the sea, and the southern city should be moved onto the riverside grass hill, accordingly... I'm evidently not seeing the same Kyan city site you are. Can I play the Parkin card, and claim that green borders are hard to distinguish from vegetation ? Regardless, I agree that Kyan is unlikely to pile into Commodore's former land while leaving a gap open for Dazed. Nor will they do so without first building more military units.

Commodore's Kamikaze Warrior is, true to form, out hunting Goomba... It's only a shame we couldn't have drawn their Warrior one tile further away from the capital. Commodore is working hammers again, so maybe they did see us coming last turn.

Dazed scored from Medina's growth to size 3 (city #2). And that's it for C&D.

[Ceiliazul]

In the south, it rather looked like the river flows into the sea, and the southern city should be moved onto the riverside grass hill, accordingly... I'm evidently not seeing the same Kyan city site you are.

Kyan's city is 7s of Commodore 'Bear'. I can see just an arc of color in the corner se of the grass hill. We know the city is new, no border expansion yet, so the riverside grass hill you speak of is (sadly) inelegible for a city placement.

Can I play the Parkin card, and claim that green borders are hard to distinguish from vegetation ?

Parkin wouldn't let you borrow his cards, I'm sure. :neenernee

I'll give you this, it's hard to see.

As I think about the odds that Kyan would push into Comm's land without securing Dazed' choke, I can't help but think we're doing the same thing. If we settle the Kyan hill we're going to have 3 cities in Comm's blob and 3 in our own. Hmm.

[Ceiliazul]

Commodore Bows Out

Commodore either brought his 2nd warrior back or built a new one. His worker appears to have been deleted. Comm's city actually grew to size 4 last turn, generously increasing the pillage gold and making recovery easier. Thanks Commodore.

LikeLike v warrior at 95.7% WINS 2.0/5 2XP
Keese v warrior at 97.0% WINS 5.0/5 2XP





My axe was planning to top the plains hill this turn and who should appear? Vince! This is actually unfortunate, because he saw both axes and the roading worker. Still, Greece's "top scorer" is down for the count. Also, another greek warrior spied my fleeing Koopa up North. Koopa mooned him from across the straight.

Axe v Vince at 99.5% WINS 4.3/5 1XP





Demos:

All shots from before the battles. After the attack my score jumped back to 190, and the top 5 city is Medina (Dazed) at size 4.

[timski]

Commodore

The capture of Bear wasn't in much doubt, but it is good to complete it in just one turn, with 121 gold added to our treasury.

I hope there aren't early concessions, because the game isn't yet a foregone conclusion. Kyan is certainly still in a strong second place, and directly threatens us.

I guess Commodore just thinks they were unlucky, and in part they were. But for future reference, there are several moves that could have saved them:

• When Warrior choked, spam whatever one can to clear the choke. That means abandoning whatever other builds were planned. GingerEagle understood this, and demonstrated it very clearly. This isn't just a practical response, it is psychological: See how fast Ceiliazul backed out of GingerEagle's land once Greece had spammed 3 Warriors in 4 turns.
  
• Spamming means overwhelming numbers at the same point in time, not a sequence of lone Kamikazes. Commodore built at least 6 Warriors, the majority of which died 2 turns apart from one another, granting nothing but promotions to their opponents. Some of those rolls were undoubtedly unlucky, but ultimately only because there was no contingency in place - no second Warrior available to follow through.
  
• Not placing 150-odd hammers worth of everything your game depends on in temptation's reach of an enemy Warrior, while defending with only one Warrior of your own. If the chance had only been 10%, the hammer ratio would have still been worth the attempt. Unlucky, sure, but again was no contingency. Commodore's ability to win was thrown for the want of a second 10-hammer Warrior, production of which would have delayed expansion by no more than 2 turns.
  
• Tech Archery. Really. That's all Commodore had to do to stay in the game. Had Commodore teched Archery on T30, rather than Meditation, we wouldn't have bothered attacking. Even if Commodore had followed Meditation with Archery, they might have managed to get enough Archers to repel our Axes. Would not have been the greatest game, but Commodore would have lived to fight another day. Instead Commodore appeared to be teching towards the Oracle, for reasons that I can't understand without becoming spoiled.

In summary: Contingency (don't rely on luck where the entire game is at stake) and Archery (know when you are threatened and change plan accordingly).

C&D

You recorded GingerEagle's Selhurst Park as size 2, but for the demo rival minimum population to be correct, Selhurst Park must be size 3: Rival worst average population is 42,000, or two cities of size 3. Kyan, Dazed and Commodore exceed 42,000 from their size 4 capitals alone.

For clarity, the T40 city tally:

• GingerEagle - Crystal Palace = 3 (founded T0), Selhurst Park = 3 (T27).
  
• Kyan - Orgrimmar = 4 (T0), City#2 = 2 (T28), City#3 = 1 (T37).
  
• Dazed - Mecca = 4 (T0), Medina = 4 (T25).

That's the only combination that matches the population demos. From population demos alone, there haven't been any more cities founded. Dazed grew Medina to size 4 on T39 (increasing score, and power by 1) - Medina is growing at a spectaular rate, size 2 to 4 in 2 turns. Kyan grew Orgrimmar to size 4 on T40 (only increasing score). GingerEagle 3-pop whipped** Crystal Palace (only) on T40 (minus 1 power and 3 scores).

(Added: It is possible Medina grew to size 4 on T40, and Dazed teched something T39 - I can't tell without the T39 demos. It ultimately doesn't matter, but that would better explain Medina's rapid growth.)

So, we expect GingerEagle's power to be 33, and this is confirmed from the rival average power of 35.25: With 24 minimum and 42 maximum, both Kyan and Dazed are now rival max at 42 power. (The only way they cannot be is if GingerEagle lost more Warriors prior to our battles. That unlikely possibility will be confirmed by the (Commodore-free) T41 demos.) Ergo on T40, both Kyan and Dazed gained 6 power points.

GingerEagle, Kyan and Dazed all gained techs on T40. Kyan and Dazed may have teched Archery, may have built Axemen. All we can be sure of is that GingerEagle gained a non-power tech. Gut feeling for GingerEagle's last 2 techs are Sailing->Writing or Masonry->Monotheism. But if it were the former, you would have reported the Beaker change, and if it were the later, you would have reported the religion - confusing.

(** When did GingerEagle suddenly master the art of whipping? I presume they 3-pop whipped a Settler for their third city. If they are planning to settle their choke hill, we'll get B1 settled at least a turn before, since they have no roads in place.)

Kyan (Added)

My best estimate of Kyan's builds:

• Orgrimmar (capital) 2-pop whipped a Settler T33, out T34, which settled the third city T37.
  
• Kyan's second city slow-built a Barracks to completion T34, and has since been churning out Axes (T36 and T40).

The implications:

• Orgrimmar has been building something since T34, while slowly growing. This is almost certainly not a fourth settler, so Kyan won't be settling again anytime soon. I still favour the idea that Kyan is building the Oracle in their capital.
  
• Their second city is assumed to be pumping out Shock/etc Axes at a rate of around one every 3 turns. Not a great rush, but quality units. Kyan may not have decided where to deploy those Axes yet. However, since Dazed probably also has 2 Axes (albeit without experience), I wouldn't expect more than 1 of Kyan's Axes to be heading towards us, if that.
  
• I rather doubt they have Granaries finished, since neither city is growing quickly, and Kyan isn't using the whip anything like as much as we are.